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21.
22.
We assess the potential benefits from innovative forecasts of the stream flows that replenish reservoirs in the semi-arid state of Ceará, Brazil. Such forecasts have many potential applications. In Ceará, they matter for both water-allocation and participatory-governance issues that echo global debates. Our qualitative analysis, based upon extensive fieldwork with farmers, agencies, politicians and other key actors in the water sector, stresses that forecast value changes as a society shifts. In the case of Ceará, current constraints on the use of these forecasts are likely to be reduced by shifts in water demand, water allocation in the agricultural Jaguaribe Valley, participatory processes for water allocation between this valley and the capital city of Fortaleza, and risk perception. Such changes in the water sector can also have major distributional impacts. Broad, Pfaff and Taddei equally share lead authorship.  相似文献   
23.
A generalized X-ray scattering factor model experimental electron density distribution has been generated for the orthosilicate forsterite, using an essentially extinction and absorption free set of single crystal diffraction data recorded with intense, high energy synchrotron X-ray radiation (E=100.6 keV). A refinement of the model converged with an R(F)=0.0061. An evaluation of the bond critical point, bcp, properties of the distribution at the (3, –1) stationary points for the SiO and MgO bonded interactions, yielded values that agree typically within ~5%, on average, with theoretical values generated with quantum chemical computational strategies, using relatively robust basis sets. On the basis of this result, the modeling of the experimental distribution is considered to be adequate. As the bcp properties increase in magnitude, the MgO and SiO bonds decrease in length as calculated for a number of rock forming silicates. As asserted by Coppens (X-ray charge densities and chemical bonding. Oxford University Press, Oxford, 1997), large negative 2(rc) values, characteristic of shared interactions involving first row atoms, may not be characteristic of closed shell covalent bonded interactions involving second row Si, P and S atoms bonded to O. This study adds new evidence to the overall relatively good agreement between theoretical bcp properties generated with computational quantum strategies, on the one hand, and experimental properties generated with single crystal high energy synchrotron diffraction data on the other. The similarity of results not only provides a basis for using computational strategies for studying and modeling structures, defects and the reactivity of representative structures, but it also provides a basis for improving our understanding of the crystal chemistry of earth materials and the character of the SiO bonded interaction.  相似文献   
24.
The dissolution of prismatic and rhombohedral quartz surfaces by KOH/H2O solutions was investigated by atomic force microscopy. Rates of dissolution of different classes of surface features (e.g., steps, voids, and dislocation etch pits) were measured. The prismatic surface etched almost two orders of magnitude faster than the rhombohedral surface, mostly due to the difference in the number and the rate of dissolution of extended defects, such as dislocations. Because of the presence of imperfect twin boundaries, defect densities on the prismatic surface were estimated at 50-100 μm−2, whereas the rhombohedral surface possessed only ∼0.5-1.0 μm−2, mostly in the form of crystal voids. Crystal voids etched almost one order of magnitude faster on the prismatic surface than on the rhombohedral surface due to differences in the number and the density of steps formed by voids on the different surfaces. In the absence of extended defects, both surfaces underwent step-wise dissolution at similar rates. Average rates of step retreat were comparable on both surfaces (∼3-5 nm/h on the prismatic surface and ∼5-10 nm/h on the rhombohedral surface). Prolonged dissolution left the prismatic surface reshaped to a hill-and-valley morphology, whereas the rhombohedral surface dissolved to form coalescing arrays of oval-shaped etch pits.  相似文献   
25.
Spatially distributed hydrologic models can be effectively utilized for flood event simulation over basins where a complex system of reservoirs affecting the natural flow regime is present. Flood peak attenuation through mountain reservoirs can, in fact, mitigate the impact of major floods in flood‐prone areas of the lower river valley. Assessment of this effect for a complex reservoir system is performed with a spatially distributed hydrologic model where the surface runoff formation and the hydraulic routing through each reservoir and the river system are performed at a fine spatial and time resolution. The Toce River basin is presented as a case study, because of the presence of 14 active hydroelectric dams that affect the natural flow regime. A recent extreme flood event is simulated using a multi‐realization kriging method for modelling the spatial distribution of rainfall. A sensitivity analysis of the key elements of the distributed hydrologic model is also performed. The flood hydrograph attenuation is assessed. Several possible reservoir storage conditions are used to characterize the initial condition of each reservoir. The results demonstrate how a distributed hydrologic model can contribute to defining strategies for reservoir management in flood mitigation. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
26.
Since the 18th century systematic measurements of rainfall have been collected in Italy. The daily rainfall series observed in Milan (1835–2001), Genoa (1833–2000), Bologna (1813–2001) and Palermo (1797–1999) are examples of available long rainfall records. These data series can help analyzing the evolution of precipitation. The present paper deals with long term evolution of: (i) annual rainfall amount; (ii) annual number of rainy events; (iii) intensity of rainfall, (iv) inter-annual rainfall partitioning, i.e. the duration of wet and dry periods, and (v) maximum annual values of daily rainfall amount, duration of wet and dry periods. The evolution is studied analyzing the first two order statistics and the 30-year return period quantiles via moving window analysis. Confidence intervals are introduced to check the statistical significance of the estimated statistics and quantiles. The results are compared with those provided by the traditional Mann-Kendall test. The analysis shows how the annual precipitation exhibits a negative trend in the first half of 20th century, with a subsequent positive trend in northern Italy (Genoa, Milan and Bologna). Conversely, the dataset for Palermo (southern Italy) displays only a negative trend. Because the number of precipitation episodes is found to decrease in the investigated period, the average rain rate is significantly increasing especially in northern Italy. This is also associated with shorter duration of rain episodes with an evident effect on rainfall extremes. Dry periods tend to be longer with increasing variability. The Mann-Kendall test and its progressive form have shown to be well suited for monotonic trend, but the confidence interval analysis, introduced here, is more appropriate if oscillations are significant.  相似文献   
27.
Gut fluorescence and carbon budget techniques were applied to Tarebia granifera (shell height 10–12 mm) at the iSimangaliso Wetland Park, a UNESCO World Heritage Site. This snail has recently invaded a number of estuaries in northern KwaZulu-Natal, where it reaches densities of over 1000 ind. m?2 and becomes a dominant component of the benthic community. Its rapid establishment and spread have raised concerns about potential top-down impacts on the ecosystem. This study shows that T. granifera can utilize large amounts of microphytobenthos (MPB) in addition to detritus. In situ total available MPB pigment concentrations ranged from 11.6 to 110.5 mg pigm. m?2. T. granifera’s gut pigment content ranged from 54 to 1672 μg pigm. ind?1. Gut evacuation rates (k) ranged from 0.36 to 0.62 h?1 (R2 range: 16.2–35.2, P < 0.05). Individual ingestion rates ranged from 6.6 to 30.4 μg pigm. ind.?1 d?1. T. granifera was estimated to consume from 0.5 to 35% of the total available MPB biomass per day, or 1.2–68% of the daily primary benthic production. The carbon component estimated from the gut fluorescence technique contributed 8.7–40.9% of the total gut organic carbon content. The average carbon daily ration contributed by microalgal biomass was ≈16% body carbon per day. Variability in the data was attributed to the complex feeding history of snails. Further studies are needed to validate these results and provide more information on the ecological impact of T. granifera on this wetland and other similar invaded ecosystems, both estuarine and freshwater.  相似文献   
28.
【Title】

【Author】

【Addresses】1

Traditional landscape elements such as pasture patches enclosed in a forest matrix are progressively disappearing throughout the European Alps. We assessed the land mosaic shift of a protected area located in the western Italian Alps. In particular, the dynamics of pasture patches were studied at both landscape and stand level. Land-cover mapping through object-oriented analysis of historical aerial photographs was used to assess land-cover changes between 1954 and 2000. Spatial statistics were used to quantify landscape patterns, and field samplings within pasture patches were used to explore tree regeneration structure and composition. Our results showed a significant increase in the number of pasture patches caused by their fragmentation following forest expansion. The total surface area of pasture patches decreased by 43% and their core area decreased by 94%. The encroachment of trees on less accessible areas of the pasture patches caused a reduction of patch shape at landscape scale. The gap filling process started 40-50 years ago and began with an early invasion of light demanding species like sycamore maple (Acer pseudoplatanus L.) and common ash (Fraxinus excelsior L.), followed by European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) and secondarily silver fir (Abies alba Mill.). Traditional land-use and population decline in the Pesio Valley led to a reduction in ecotone areas. A transition to a more homogeneous landscape is expected in the next decades. Given the cultural and productive nature of these mountain meadow-pasture communities, extensive livestock grazing systems could be used to manage their future conservation.  相似文献   
29.
The Averno 2 eruption (3,700 ± 50 a B.P.) was an explosive low-magnitude event characterized by magmatic and phreatomagmatic explosions, generating mainly fall and surge beds, respectively. It occurred in the Western sector of the Campi Flegrei caldera (Campanian Region, South Italy) at the intersection of two active fault systems, oriented NE and NW. The morphologically complex crater area, largely filled by the Averno lake, resulted from vent activation and migration along the NE-trending fault system. The eruption generated a complex sequence of pyroclastic deposits, including pumice fall deposits in the lower portion, and prevailing surge beds in the intermediate-upper portion. The pyroclastic sequence has been studied through stratigraphical, morphostructural and petrological investigations, and subdivided into three members named A through C. Member A was emplaced during the first phase of the eruption mainly by magmatic explosions which generated columns reaching a maximum height of 10 km. During this phase the eruption reached its climax with a mass discharge rate of 3.2 106 kg/s. Intense fracturing and fault activation favored entry of a significant amount of water into the system, which produced explosions driven by variably efficient water-magma interaction. These explosions generated wet to dry surge deposits that emplaced Member B and C, respectively. Isopachs and isopleths maps, as well as areal distribution of ballistic fragments and facies variation of surge deposits allow definition of four vents that opened along a NE oriented, 2 km long fissure. The total volume of magma extruded during the eruption has been estimated at about 0.07 km3 (DRE). The erupted products range in composition from initial, weakly peralkaline alkali-trachyte, to last-emplaced alkali-trachyte. Isotopic data and modeling suggest that mixing occurred during the Averno 2 eruption between a more evolved, less radiogenic stored magma, and a less evolved, more radiogenic magma that entered the shallow reservoir to trigger the eruption. The early phases of the eruption, during which the vent migrated from SW to the center of the present lake, were fed by the more evolved, uppermost magma, while the following phases extruded the less evolved, lowermost magma. Integration of the geological and petrological results suggests that the Averno 2 complex eruption was fed from a dyke-shaped shallow reservoir intruded into the NE-SW fault system bordering to the west the La Starza resurgent block, within the caldera floor.  相似文献   
30.
A new hydrostratigraphic model of Venice area (Italy)   总被引:3,自引:3,他引:0  
Two environmental problems affect the Venice area: subsidence, which has been increasing due to the intensive water abstraction after the Second World War, and contamination of the soil and shallow aquifers. In order to address these problems, which are decisive factors in the entire Venetian ecosystem, the aquifer structure must be known in detail. The lithologic data are abundant and of good quality up to a depth of 50 m, whereas boreholes beyond this depth are much rarer and more dispersed, making their associated lithological data unreliable. This work, which uses the available data together with fast and low cost passive seismic measurements, provides an improved understanding of the deeper hydrogeologic domain. For this purpose, a MATLAB package (Modalstrata) has been developed to improve the correlation of the stratigraphic succession for each selected homogeneous sub-area and applied to obtain a new, upgraded hydrostratigraphic model. The horizontal to vertical spectral ratio passive seismic surveys have confirmed the lateral correlations among the sample areas at least for the two main aquifer horizons. Analysis and comparisons of several previous studies performed on the data related to the only drilling continuous coring 951 m deep in the Tronchetto Island (Venice), have allowed a satisfactory validation of the proposed hydrogeological model.  相似文献   
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