DEVELOPING SCENARIOS OF TEMPERATURE THRESHOLDS     

Peter J. Robinson 《自然地理学》2013,34(1):14-30

Scenarios of future climates must be made so that the potential impacts of climatic change can be assessed. A simple method is presented for developing regional scenarios of the number of days per month above a selected temperature. The method uses the observational record of daily maximum temperatures to develop linear regressions between monthly average temperature and the number of days above the threshold. The relationships are then extrapolated to the average temperature conditions estimated by General Circulation Models (GCMs) and the new number of days determined. The method is demonstrated by developing a set of scenarios for the United States for a 90° F threshold. The validity of the approach, including consideration of the linearity of the relationships and the amount of extrapolation needed, is discussed. The regional variability of the results can be explained in climatological terms while local variations are associated with topographic and hydrologic effects. The results are in general agreement with estimates obtained directly from GCM results.  相似文献   

Elements of viral cartography     

Anthony C. Robinson 《制图学和地理信息科学》2013,40(4):293-310

ABSTRACT

Making and sharing maps is easier than ever, and social media platforms make it possible for maps to rapidly attain widespread visibility and engagement. Such maps can be considered examples of viral cartography – maps that reach rapid popularity via social media dissemination. In this research we propose a framework for evaluating the design and social dissemination characteristics of viral maps. We apply this framework in two case studies using maps that reached wide audiences on Twitter. We then analyze collections of maps derived from and inspired by viral maps using image analysis and machine learning to characterize their design elements. Based on our initial work to conceptualize and analyze virality in cartography, we propose a set of new research challenges to better understand viral mapmaking and leverage its social affordances.  相似文献   

Sedimentological and ichnological signatures of changes in wave,river and tidal influence along a Neogene tropical deltaic shoreline     

LUIS A. BUATOIS  NUBIA SANTIAGO  MEYLIN HERRERA  PIRET PLINK‐BJÖRKLUND  RON STEEL  MARÍA ESPIN  KAOLU PARRA 《Sedimentology》2012,59(5):1568-1612

Analysis of Neogene cores from the Eastern Venezuela Basin along 65 km of a west–east trending shoreline allows characterization of the sedimentological and ichnological signatures of wave, river and tidal processes. The area displays deltas prograding northward from the Guyana Shield. Twenty‐three facies are defined and grouped into four categories (wave‐influenced, river‐influenced, tide‐influenced and basinal). Wave‐dominated deltaic deposits occur mostly in the Tácata Field. The delta plain was characterized by tide‐influenced distributary channels separated by interdistributary bays. Fluvial discharge in the delta front and prodelta was repeatedly interrupted by storm‐wave reworking and suspended sediment fallout. Delta‐front and prodelta deposits contain some ichnotaxa that typically do not occur in brackish water (for example, Chondrites and Phycosiphon). Amalgamated storm deposits are unburrowed or contain vertical Ophiomorpha. Lateral (especially on the updrift side) to the river mouths, waves caused nearly continuous accretion of the associated strandplains. These deposits are the most intensely bioturbated, and are dominated by the estenohaline echinoid‐generated ichnogenus Scolicia. River‐dominated deltaic deposits are present in the Santa Bárbara, Mulata, Carito and El Furrial Fields. Low‐sinuosity rivers characterized the alluvial plain, whereas the subaerial delta plain was occupied by higher‐sinuosity rivers. The subaqueous delta plain includes distributary channels and tide‐influenced interdistributary bays. Further seaward, successions are characterized by terminal distributary‐channel and distributary mouth‐bar deposits, as well as by delta‐front and prodelta deposits showing evidence of sediment gravity‐flow and fluid‐mud emplacement. Delta‐front and prodelta deposits are unbioturbated to sparsely bioturbated, suggesting extreme stress, mostly as a result of high fluvial discharge and generation of sediment gravity flows. Tidal influence is restricted to interdistributary bays, lagoons and some distributary channels. From an ichnological perspective, and in order of decreasing stress levels, four main depositional settings are identified: river‐dominated deltas, tide‐influenced delta plains, wave‐dominated deltas and wave‐dominated strandplain–offshore complexes.  相似文献   

The Stanford Climate Change Behavior Survey (SCCBS): assessing greenhouse gas emissions-related behaviors in individuals and populations     

K. Carrie Armel  Katy Yan  Annika Todd  Thomas N. Robinson 《Climatic change》2011,109(3-4):671-694

Many individual-level behaviors are associated with greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Reliable and valid assessment instruments are needed to (1) identify behaviors and populations to target with emissions-reduction programs and policies, (2) evaluate the effectiveness of such programs, (3) link self-reported and objective measures of GHG emissions to establish the impact of specific behaviors, and (4) estimate frequencies of behaviors and their changes over time to aid policy makers in understanding energy consumption trends. The self-administered Stanford Climate Change Behavior Survey (SCCBS) is shown to be a reliable and valid instrument that can be used for these purposes in college students, and we anticipate that it will also be useful for assessing these behaviors in other adolescent or adult populations in developed countries. Questions included behaviors likely to be within the control of most individuals and did not include behaviors specific to home owners (e.g. appliance purchases). Ten indices were identified: Energy Use, No-, Low-, and High-GHG Transportation, Waste, Food Packaging, High- and Low-GHG Food, Food Purchasing, and GHG Credits use. A Total GHG Behavior score was calculated. Test–retest reliabilities of individual items ranged from .64 to .91. Internal consistency reliabilities for each of the indices ranged from .51 to .89. Most indices were statistically significantly correlated with one another. Correlational validity of the SCCBS was demonstrated with statistically significant associations between behavior scores and perceived importance of environmental sustainability and membership in an environmental organization. The use of the SCCBS to identify potential target sub-populations and behaviors was demonstrated.  相似文献   

Block removal and step backwearing as erosion processes on rock shore platforms: a preliminary case study of the chalk shore platforms of south‐east England     

U. Dornbusch  D.A. Robinson 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2011,36(5):661-671

Shore platforms frequently exhibit steps or risers facing seaward, landwards or obliquely across‐shore. A combination of soft copy photogrammetry, ortho‐rectification, geo referencing and field measurement of step height are linked in a GIS environment to measure step retreat on chalk shore platforms at sample sites in the south of England over two periods, 1973–2001, 2001–2007. The methods used allow for the identification, delineation and measurement of historic change at high spatial resolution. The results suggest that while erosion of chalk shore platforms by step backwearing is highly variable, it appears to be of similar magnitude to surface downwearing of the same platforms measured by micro‐erosion meters (MEMs) and laser scanning, in a range equivalent to 0·0006 – 0·0050 m y^?1 of surface downwearing. This equates to annual chalk volume loss from the platforms, by the two erosion processes combined, of between 0·0012 m³ m^?2 and 0·0100 m³ m^?2. Results from the more recent years' data suggests that step retreat has variability in both space and time which does not relate solely to climatic variability. The results must be viewed with caution until much larger numbers of measurements have been made of both downwearing and step erosion at higher spatial and temporal resolution. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

The Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) 4-dimensional variational data assimilation systems: Part II - Performance and application to the California Current System     

Andrew M. Moore  Hernan G. ArangoGregoire Broquet  Chris EdwardsMilena Veneziani  Brian PowellDave Foley  James D. DoyleDan Costa  Patrick Robinson 《Progress in Oceanography》2011,91(1):50-73

The Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) 4-dimensional variational (4D-Var) data assimilation systems have been systematically applied to the mesoscale circulation environment of the California Current to demonstrate the performance and practical utility of the various components of ROMS 4D-Var. In particular, we present a comparison of three approaches to 4D-Var, namely: the primal formulation of the incremental strong constraint approach; the dual formulation “physical-space statistical analysis system”; and the dual formulation indirect representer approach. In agreement with theoretical considerations all three approaches converge to the same ocean circulation estimate when using the same observations and prior information. However, the rate of convergence of the dual formulation was found to be inferior to that of the primal formulation. Other aspects of the 4D-Var performance that relate to the use of multiple outer-loops, preconditioning, and the weak constraint are also explored. A systematic evaluation of the impact of the various components of the 4D-Var control vector (i.e. the initial conditions, surface forcing and open boundary conditions) is also presented. It is shown that correcting for uncertainties in the model initial conditions exerts the largest influence on the ability of the model to fit the available observations. Various important diagnostics of 4D-Var are also examined, including estimates of the posterior error, the information content of the observation array, and innovation-based consistency checks on the prior error assumptions. Using these diagnostic tools, we find that more than 90% of the observations assimilated into the model provide redundant information. This is a symptom of the large percentage of satellite data that are used and to some extent the nature of the data processing employed. This is the second in a series of three papers describing the ROMS 4D-Var systems.  相似文献   

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674987111000508   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Yanhua Zhang  J. Robinson  P.M. Schaubs 《地学前缘(英文版)》2011,2(3):449-461

This paper presents the results of a set of numerical models focussing on structural controls on hydrothermal mineralization.We first give an overview of natural phenomena of structurally-controlled ore formation and the background theory and mechanisms for such controls. We then provide the results of a group of simple 2D numerical models validated through comparison with Cu-vein structure observed near the Shilu Copper deposit(Yangchun,Guangdong Province, China) and finally a case study of 3D numerical modelling applied to the Hodgkinson Province in North Queensland(Australia).Two modelling approaches,discrete deformation modelling and continuum coupled deformation and fluid flow modelling,are involved.The 2D model-derived patterns are remarkably consistent with the Cu-vein structure from the Shilu Copper deposit,and show that both modelling approaches can realistically simulate the mechanical behaviours of shear and dilatant fractures.The continuum coupled deformation and fluid flow model indicates that pattern of the Cuveins near the Shilu deposit is the result of shear strain localization,development of dilation and fluid focussing into the dilatant fracture segments.The 3D case-study models(with deformation and fluid flow coupling) on the Hodgkinson Province generated a number of potential gold mineralization targets.  相似文献   

NRM engagement between remote dryland communities and government agencies: Success factors from Australia     

T.G. Measham  L. BrakeC.J. Robinson  S. LarsonC. Richards  T.F. Smith 《Journal of Arid Environments》2011,75(10):968-973

The management of dryland environments involves the interaction of multiple government agencies and citizens, and is required to respond to a wide range of responsibilities and aspirations for a given region. This paper focuses on the characteristics of engagement between management agencies and citizens in a dryland region, presented here as a series of success factors. These factors are based on empirical research carried out in the Lake Eyre Basin in Australia, one of the world’s largest inwardly draining basins. The results reinforce generic and dryland-specific factors supporting successful community engagement. The former, such as building trust, working in partnership, supporting community champions, and maintaining transparency, are necessary but insufficient for achieving successful community engagement in the case study region. In addition, community engagement in the case study region also required respecting the extreme conditions and extraordinary variability of the Basin and committing to longer timeframes even if the outcomes of community engagement are slow to accrue, in order to take advantage of opportunities in more prosperous times.  相似文献   

Urban spatial development and land use in Beijing: Implications from London’s experiences     

TAN Minghong  GUY M. Robinson  LI Xiubin 《地理学报》2011,21(1):49-64

Beijing is facing a huge challenge to manage the growth of its built-up area whilst also retaining both productive arable land and land for conservation purposes in order to simultaneously realize the three aims of economic development, protecting arable land and generating environmental improvements. Meanwhile, London, as a world city with more than 200 years of industrialization and urbanization, has accumulated rich theoretical and practical experiences for land use planning in a major urban area, such as the creation of Garden Cities, a designated Green Belt and New Towns. This paper firstly analyzes the main characteristics of the spatial distribution of the built-up area, arable land and conservation land in Beijing. Then, some of the key aspects of urban fringe planning in the London region are examined. Lastly, several implications from the experience of London are provided with respect to land-use planning for Beijing, concentrating on a re-appraisal of land-use functions around Beijing, measures to improve the green belt, the development of small towns to house rural-urban migrants and urban overspill, and effective implementation of land-use planning.  相似文献   

Was Himalayan normal faulting triggered by initiation of the Ramgarh–Munsiari thrust and development of the Lesser Himalayan duplex?     

Delores M. Robinson  Ofori N. Pearson 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2013,102(7):1773-1790

The Ramgarh–Munsiari thrust is a major orogen-scale fault that extends for more than 1,500 km along strike in the Himalayan fold-thrust belt. The fault can be traced along the Himalayan arc from Himachal Pradesh, India, in the west to eastern Bhutan. The fault is located within the Lesser Himalayan tectonostratigraphic zone, and it translated Paleoproterozoic Lesser Himalayan rocks more than 100 km toward the foreland. The Ramgarh–Munsiari thrust is always located in the proximal footwall of the Main Central thrust. Northern exposures (toward the hinterland) of the thrust sheet occur in the footwall of the Main Central thrust at the base of the high Himalaya, and southern exposures (toward the foreland) occur between the Main Boundary thrust and Greater Himalayan klippen. Although the metamorphic grade of rocks within the Ramgarh–Munsiari thrust sheet is not significantly different from that of Greater Himalayan rock in the hanging wall of the overlying Main Central thrust sheet, the tectonostratigraphic origin of the two different thrust sheets is markedly different. The Ramgarh–Munsiari thrust became active in early Miocene time and acted as the roof thrust for a duplex system within Lesser Himalayan rocks. The process of slip transfer from the Main Central thrust to the Ramgarh–Munsiari thrust in early Miocene time and subsequent development of the Lesser Himalayan duplex may have played a role in triggering normal faulting along the South Tibetan Detachment system.  相似文献