Foreshocks and aftershocks of the M W = 7.1, 1992, earthquake in the Atrato region, Colombia     

Ronald Arvidsson  Jaime Toral Boutet  Ota Kulhanek 《Journal of Seismology》2002,6(1):1-11

We study the October 18, M _W = 7.1, 1992 Atrato earthquake, and its foreshocks and aftershocks, which occurred in the Atrato valley, northwestern Colombia. The main shock was preceded by several foreshocksof which the M _W = 6.6, October 17 earthquacke was the largest. Inparticular, we examine foreshocks and aftershocks performing joint-hypocenter relocations using high quality Pn and Sn wave readingsfrom permanent regional networks. We observed a few hours prior to the main shock a sudden increase of foreshocks. Maybe this could be used as a predictor since foreshocks have been known for other major events in the region. Our locations align for 90 km with a trend of 5^° ±4^° in agreement with the Harvard CMT solution showing the faultplane trending 9^° to be the plane of rupture. In relation to theepicenter of the main shock, maximum intensities were located to thesouth, consistent with a rupture that traveled from north to south witha larger energy release in the south as suggested by an empirical Green'sfunction study (Li and Toksöz, 1993; Ammon et al., 1994). The boundarybetween the Panama and North Andes blocks has been placed close to thePanama-Colombia border as either a sharp boundary or a diffuse zone. TheAtrato earthquake, however, shows that the plate boundary between thePanama and North Andes microblocks is a diffuse deformation zone. Thiszone has a width of at least 2^° stretching from 78^°W to 76^°W. Quantification of earthquake moment release (during the past30 years) in this zone shows a similar amount of moment release in thewestern and eastern parts of this zone.  相似文献   

Tiller recruitment and mortality in the dryland bunchgrass Eragrostis curvula as affected by defoliation intensity     

Changgui Wan  Ronald E. Sosebee 《Journal of Arid Environments》2002,51(4):577

A greenhouse experiment was conducted to investigate the effects of moderate (14 cm) vs. severe (7 cm) defoliation on tiller recruitment and mortality within the interior and on the perimeter of weeping lovegrass (Eragrostis curvula) tussocks. Tiller number per marked shoot within the interior was significantly greater in plants defoliated at 14-cm stubble height than at 7-cm stubble height (2·37 vs. 0·43, p<0·05) 28 weeks after defoliation; likewise, tiller number per marked shoot was also greater on the perimeter of tussocks in the higher stubble than the lower stubble defoliation treatment (5·10 vs. 2·03, p<0·05). Tiller natality increased significantly 4 weeks after defoliation except for tillers cut to 7-cm stubble height within the interior of tussocks where tiller natality reached a peak at 4·5 weeks after defoliation. During the later stages of canopy development, tiller numbers per marked shoot gradually declined as tiller mortality increased. Tillers began senescing 13 weeks after defoliation, and the senescence rate was 52% greater in the 7-cm stubble height treatment than in the 14-cm stubble height treatment (2·33 vs. 1·53, p<0·0001). Within the interior of tussocks, number of the marked tillers more than doubled under the 14-cm stubble height treatment, whereas the plants lost 57% of the monitored tillers under the 7-cm stubble height treatment. We concluded that the central dieback process in weeping lovegrass is accelerated by severe defoliation.  相似文献   

Scaling effects on modeled surface energy-balance components using the NOAH-OSU land surface model   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

V. Sridhar  Ronald L. Elliott  Fei Chen 《Journal of Hydrology》2003,280(1-4):105-123

As surface exchange processes are highly non-linear and heterogeneous in space and time, it is important to know the appropriate scale for the reasonable prediction of these exchange processes. For example, the explicit representation of surface variability has been vital in predicting mesoscale weather events such as late-afternoon thunderstorms initiated by latent heat exchanges in mid-latitude regions of the continental United States. This study was undertaken to examine the effects of different spatial scales of input data on modeled fluxes, so as to better understand the resolution needed for accurate modeling. A statistical procedure was followed to select two cells from the Southern Great Plains 1997 hydrology experiment region, each 20 km×20 km, representing the most homogeneous and the most heterogeneous surface conditions (based on soil and vegetation) within the study region. The NOAH-OSU (Oregon State University) Land Surface Model (LSM) was employed to estimate surface energy fluxes. Three scales of study (200 m, 2 and 20 km) were considered in order to investigate the impacts of the aggregation of input data, especially soil and vegetation inputs, on the model output. Model results of net radiation and latent, sensible and ground heat fluxes were compared for the three scales. For the heterogeneous area, the model output at the 20-km resolution showed some differences when compared with the 200-m and 2-km resolutions. This was more pronounced in latent heat (12% decrease), sensible heat (22% increase), and ground heat flux (44% increase) estimation than in net radiation. The scaling effects were much less for the relatively homogeneous land area with 5% increase in sensible heat and 4% decrease in ground heat flux estimation. All of the model outputs for the 2- and 20-km resolutions were in close agreement. The results suggested that, for this study region, soils and vegetation input resolution of about 2 km should be chosen for realistic modeling of surface exchange processes. This resolution was sufficient to capture the effects of sub-grid scale heterogeneity, while avoiding the data and computational difficulties associated with higher spatial resolutions.  相似文献   

Foreshocks and aftershocks of the Mw = 7.1, 1992, earthquakein the Atrato region, Columbia/atl>     

Ronald Arvidsson  Jaime Toral Boutet  Ota Kulhanek 《Journal of Seismology》2003,7(2):279-279

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Geospatial habitat change analysis in Pacific Northwest coastal estuaries   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Amy B. Borde  Ronald M. Thom  Steven Rumrill  Lee M. Miller 《Estuaries and Coasts》2003,26(4):1104-1116

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Understanding Climatic Impacts, Vulnerabilities, and Adaptation in the United States: Building a Capacity for Assessment     

Edward A. Parson  Robert W. Corell  Eric J. Barron  Virginia Burkett  Anthony Janetos  Linda Joyce  Thomas R. Karl  Michael C. MacCracken  Jerry Melillo  M. Granger Morgan  David S. Schimel  Thomas Wilbanks 《Climatic change》2003,57(1-2):9-42

Based on the experience of the U.S. National Assessment, we propose a program of research and analysis to advance capability for assessment of climate impacts, vulnerabilities, and adaptation options. We identify specific priorities for scientific research on the responses of ecological and socioeconomic systems to climate and other stresses; for improvement in the climatic inputs to impact assessments; and for further development of assessment methods to improve their practical utility to decision-makers. Finally, we propose a new institutional model for assessment, based principally on regional efforts that integrate observations, research, data, applications, and assessment on climate and linked environmental-change issues. The proposed program will require effective collaboration between scientists, resource managers, and other stakeholders, all of whose expertise is needed to define and prioritize key regional issues, characterize relevant uncertainties, and assess potential responses. While both scientifically and organizationally challenging, such an integrated program holds the best promise of advancing our capacity to manage resources and the economy adaptively under a changing climate.  相似文献   

Uncertainty Analysis of Climate Change and Policy Response   总被引：1，自引：3，他引：1  

Mort Webster  Chris Forest  John Reilly  Mustafa Babiker  David Kicklighter  Monika Mayer  Ronald Prinn  Marcus Sarofim  Andrei Sokolov  Peter Stone  Chien Wang 《Climatic change》2003,61(3):295-320

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Delineating the Chemical Composition of the Salinity Source for Saline Ground Waters: An Example from East-Central Concordia Parish, Louisiana     

Ronald K. Stoessell 《Ground water》1997,35(3):409-417

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Guiding Principles of USGS Methodology for Assessment of Undiscovered Conventional Oil and Gas Resources     

Ronald R. Charpentier  T. R. Klett 《Natural Resources Research》2005,14(3):175-186

During the last 30 years, the methodology for assessment of undiscovered conventional oil and gas resources used by the Geological Survey has undergone considerable change. This evolution has been based on five major principles. First, the U.S. Geological Survey has responsibility for a wide range of U.S. and world assessments and requires a robust methodology suitable for immaturely explored as well as maturely explored areas. Second, the assessments should be based on as comprehensive a set of geological and exploration history data as possible. Third, the perils of methods that solely use statistical methods without geological analysis are recognized. Fourth, the methodology and course of the assessment should be documented as transparently as possible, within the limits imposed by the inevitable use of subjective judgement. Fifth, the multiple uses of the assessments require a continuing effort to provide the documentation in such ways as to increase utility to the many types of users. Undiscovered conventional oil and gas resources are those recoverable volumes in undiscovered, discrete, conventional structural or stratigraphic traps. The USGS 2000 methodology for these resources is based on a framework of assessing numbers and sizes of undiscovered oil and gas accumulations and the associated risks. The input is standardized on a form termed the Seventh Approximation Data Form for Conventional Assessment Units. Volumes of resource are then calculated using a Monte Carlo program named Emc2, but an alternative analytic (non-Monte Carlo) program named ASSESS also can be used. The resource assessment methodology continues to change. Accumulation-size distributions are being examined to determine how sensitive the results are to size-distribution assumptions. The resource assessment output is changing to provide better applicability for economic analysis. The separate methodology for assessing continuous (unconventional) resources also has been evolving. Further studies of the relationship between geologic models of conventional and continuous resources will likely impact the respective resource assessment methodologies.  相似文献   

A large landslide on the urban fringe of metropolitan Phoenix, Arizona   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：2  

John Douglass  Ronald I. Dorn  Brian Gootee 《Geomorphology》2005,65(3-4):321-336

A granitic rock avalanche, one of the largest Quaternary landslides in Arizona outside the Grand Canyon with a volume of approximately 5.25 M m³ and a width a little under 0.5 km, ran 1 km from the eastern McDowell Mountains. With lateral levees and pressure ridges, the rock avalanche deposit displays many features found on classic sturzstroms. Failure occurred along a major joint plane paralleling the slope with a dip of 44°, when a major base level lowering event in the Salt River system would have undermined the base of the failed slope, and probably during a period of more moisture than normally available in the present-day arid climate. Failure at the subsurface weathering front highlights the importance of the dramatic permeability change between grussified regolith and relatively fresh bedrock. Rock varnish microlaminations (VMLs) dating, in concert with other geomorphic evidence, suggests that the rock avalanche deposit is slightly older than 500 ka. The rock vanish results also have important implications for sampling strategies designed to use cosmogenic nuclide to date Quaternary landslide deposits. Discovery of a large landslide in close proximity to the extending urban fringe of metropolitan Phoenix argues for a more careful analysis of landslide hazards in the region, especially where rapid development excavates bedrock at the base of steep mountain slopes and where the subsurface weathering front is near the surface.  相似文献