Trends in Extreme Mean Sea Level Quantiles from Satellite Altimetry     

Susana M. Barbosa 《Marine Geodesy》2016,39(2):165-177

Satellite altimetry allows the study of sea-level long-term variability on a global and spatially uniform basis. Here quantile regression is applied to derive robust median regression trends of mean sea level as well as trends in extreme quantiles from radar altimetry time series. In contrast with ordinary least squares regression, which only provides an estimate on the rate of change of the mean of data distribution, quantile regression allows the estimation of trends at different quantiles of the data distribution, yielding a more complete picture of long-term variability. Trends derived from basin-wide averaged regional mean sea level time series are robust and similar for all quantiles, indicating that all parts of the data distribution are changing at the same rate. In contrast, trends are not robust and diverge across quantiles in the case of local time series. Trends are under- (over-)estimated in the western (eastern) equatorial Pacific. Furthermore, trends in the lowermost quantile (0.05) are larger than the median trend in the western Pacific, while trends in the uppermost quantile (0.95) are lower than the median trend in the eastern Pacific. These differences in trends in extreme mean sea level quantiles are explained by the exceptional effect of the strong 1997–1998 El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event.  相似文献   

The P-y Response of Laterally Loaded Flexible Piles in Residual Soil     

Consoli  Nilo Cesar  Reginato  Naiara da Costa  Lopes Júnior  Luizmar da Silva  Rocha  Marcelo Maia  Faro  Vítor Pereira  Born  Ricardo Bergan 《Geotechnical and Geological Engineering》2021,39(6):4295-4313

This paper describes the main features related to lateral displacements with depth after successive lateral loading–unloading cycles applied to the top of reinforced-concrete flexible bored piles embedded in naturally bonded residual soil. The bored piles under study have a cylindrical shape, with 0.40-m in diameter and 8.0-m in length. Both bored piles types (P1 and P2) include an embedded steel pipe section in their center as longitudinal steel reinforcements: pile type P1 has another 16 steel rods as steel reinforcement to concrete while pile type P2 has no further steel reinforcement. Pile type P1 has three times as much stiffness (EI) and four and a half times the plastic moment (M_y) than pile type P2. A similar load–displacement performance was observed at initial loads as for small displacements of both piles. At this initial loading stage, the response of the reinforced concrete piles is a function of the soil characteristics and of a linear elastic pile deformation. During this stage, piles can even be understood as probes for evaluating soil reactions. For larger horizontal displacements, after the concrete section starts undergoing large deformations, approaching the ultimate bending moment, pile behavior and consequently the load–displacement relation starts to diverge for both piles. For pile P1 the values of relevant lateral displacements are extended to about 2.5-m in depth, while for pile P2 lateral displacements are mostly constrained to about 2.0-m in depth. Measurements of horizontal displacements of pile P1 against depth recorded with a slope indicator show that, after unloading, lateral loads at distinct stages (small and near failure loads), exhibits a much higher elastic phase of the system response. An analytical fitting model of soil reaction is proposed based on the measured displacements from slope indicator. The integration of a continuous model proposed for the soil reaction agrees fairly well with the measured displacements up to moments close to plastic limit. Results of load–displacement show that the stiffer pile (P1) was able to mobilize twice as much lateral load compared to pile P2 for a service limit displacement of about 20 mm. The paper shows results that enable the isolation of the structural variable through real scale pile load tests, thus granting understanding of its importance and enabling its quantitative visualization in examples of piles embedded in residual soil sites.

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Identification of Gleissberg Cycles and a Rising Trend in a 315-Year-Long Series of Sunspot Numbers     

Jean-Louis Le Mouël  Fernand Lopes  Vincent Courtillot 《Solar physics》2017,292(3):43

We show in this short note that the method of singular spectrum analysis (SSA) is able to clearly extract a strong, clean, and clear component from the longest available sunspot (International Sunspot Number, ISN) time series (1700?–?2015) that cannot be an artifact of the method and that can be safely identified as the Gleissberg cycle. This is not a small component, as it accounts for 13% of the total variance of the total original signal. Almost three and a half clear Gleissberg cycles are identified in the sunspot number series. Four extended solar minima (XSM) are determined by SSA, the latest around 2000 (Cycle 23/24 minimum). Several authors have argued in favor of a double-peaked structure for the Gleissberg cycle, with one peak between 55 and 59 years and another between 88 and 97 years. We find no evidence of the former: solar activity contains an important component that has undergone clear oscillations of \(\approx90\) years over the past three centuries, with some small but systematic longer-term evolution of “instantaneous” period and amplitude. Half of the variance of solar activity on these time scales can be satisfactorily reproduced as the sum of a monotonous multi-secular increase, a \(\approx90\)-year Gleissberg cycle, and a double-peaked (\(\approx10.0\) and 11.0 years) Schwabe cycle (the sum amounts to 46% of the total variance of the signal). The Gleissberg-cycle component definitely needs to be addressed when attempting to build dynamo models of solar activity. The first SSA component offers evidence of an increasing long-term trend in sunspot numbers, which is compatible with the existence of the modern grand maximum.  相似文献   

Pitfalls in Nonlinear Inversion     

J. B. C. Silva  W. E. Medeiros  V. C. F. Barbosa 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2001,158(5-6):945-964

— We discuss and illustrate graphically with simple 2-D problems, four common pitfalls in geophysical nonlinear inversion. The first one establishes that the Lagrange multiplier, used to incorporate a priori information in the geophysical inverse problem, should be the largest value still compatible with a reasonable data fitting. This procedure should be used only when the interpreter is sure about the importance of the a priori information used to stabilize the inverse problem relative to the geophysical observations. Because this is rarely the case, the user should use the smallest Lagrange multiplier still producing stable solutions. The second pitfall is an attempt to automatically estimate the Lagrange multiplier by decreasing it along the iterative process used to solve the nonlinear optimization problem. Consequently, at the last iteration, the Lagrange multiplier may be so small that the problem may become ill-posed and any computed solution in this case is meaningless. The third pitfall is related to the incorporation of a priori information by a technique known as “Jumping.” This formulation, from the viewpoint of the class of Acceptable Gradient Methods, is incomplete and may lead to a premature halt in the iteration, and, consequently, to solutions far from the true one. Finally, the fourth pitfall is an inadequate convergence criterion which stops the iteration when the data misfit drops just below the noise level, irrespective of the fact that the functional to be minimized may not have attained its minimum. This means that the a priori information has not been completely incorporated, so that this stopping criterion partially neutralizes the effect of the stabilizing functional, and opens the possibility of obtaining unstable, meaningless estimates.  相似文献   

Evaluating simulated daily discharge for operational hydrological drought monitoring in the Global Drought Observatory (GDO)     

C. Cammalleri  P. Barbosa  J. V. Vogt 《水文科学杂志》2020,65(8):1316-1325

ABSTRACT

Hydrological drought is currently underrepresented in global monitoring systems, mainly due the shortage of near real-time estimates of river discharge at the global scale. In this study, the outputs of the Lisflood model are used to define a low-flow drought index, which shows a good correspondence with long-term records of the Global Runoff Data Centre in the period 1980–2014, as well as with verified information from the literature on six major drought events (covering different regions and watershed sizes). In contrast, the near real-time simulation (from 2015 onward) provides temporally inconsistent estimates over about 20% of the modelled cells (mostly over South America and Central Africa), even if reasonable results are obtained over other regions, as confirmed by intercomparison with the operational outcomes of the European Drought Observatory for the 2018 drought. In spite of the highlighted limitations, valuable information for operational drought monitoring can be retrieved from these simulations.  相似文献   

Petrological And Geochemical Characteristics Of The Granulitic Terrain Of Brejses, Bahia, Brazil     

Johildo Salomo Figueirêdo Barbosa  Fernando Alves daSilva  Najara Santos Sapucaia  Sundaram S. Iyer 《Gondwana Research》1998,1(3-4):343-356

New petrological and geochemical characteristics of the Brejtes region, situated in the south of Bahia, Brazil are discussed. The region forms a part of the most important and extensive granulite facies terrain in Brazil of Archean/Paleoproterozoic age. Five groups of rock types all equilibrated in the granulite facies are identified in this region. They are: i) supracrustal and related rocks, ii) undifferentiated granulites, iii) hornblende bearing enderbite-charnockites, iv) hornblende free enderbite-charnockites, v) charnockites. The first group appears to be the oldest in the region as they form enclaves in the 2.9 Ga old undifferentiated granulites. The third and fourth group are enderbite-charnockites, whose protoliths constitute two series of calc-alkaline rocks, one titanium poor (hornblende free) and another titanium rich (hornblende bearing). U/Pb zircon SHRIMP dates indicate ages of formation at 2.81 Ga (hornblende free) and 2.69 Ga (hornblende bearing) for the two groups. The fifth group of rocks have charnockitic affinity and are present in the center of the Brejtes Dome. These rocks are also have calc-alkaline affinity, but show petrographic and geochemical characteristics distinct from those of other groups. Preliminary geochronological investigations by zircon Pb-Pb evaporation method yielded 2.6 Ga and 2.0 Ga for the charnockites from the inner core of the Brejtes Dome. These age data suggest that the circular structure was formed by the re-fusion of the 2.6 Ga old deep crustal material generating younger charnockites at 2.0 Ga.  相似文献   

Dynamical Properties of a Sample of Ellipticals     

Vladimir Garrido Ortega  Gladys Lopes Vieira  J.A. de Freitas Pacheco 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1998,262(3):271-295

On the basis of Jeans equations we study some dynamical properties of a sample of E galaxies considered as oblate and prolate spheroids. Although the results emphasize the anisotropy as the dominant dynamical factor both for oblate and prolate configurations, the sample contains some oblate galaxies apparently isotropic consistent with full rotational support. Comparisons of the mass-to-luminosity ratios obtained from our models with ratios derived from recent evolutionary synthesis models do not seem to leave room for nonluminous matter within the ranges (of the order of one de Vaucouleurs' radius) of the kinematical observations. Such comparisons suggest that a flatter than the classical Salpeter IMF would lead to better agreement with the dynamical results obtained within the framework of our models.  相似文献   

Distribution and interplay of geologic processes on Titan from Cassini radar data     

R.M.C. Lopes  E.R. Stofan  J. Radebaugh  G. Mitri  R.L. Kirk  J.I. Lunine  R. Lorenz  L. Wye  R.J. Ollerenshaw  A. LeGall  R. West  P. Callahan  P. Valora  the Cassini RADAR Team 《Icarus》2010,205(2):540-558

The Cassini Titan Radar Mapper is providing an unprecedented view of Titan’s surface geology. Here we use Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) image swaths (Ta-T30) obtained from October 2004 to December 2007 to infer the geologic processes that have shaped Titan’s surface. These SAR swaths cover about 20% of the surface, at a spatial resolution ranging from ∼350 m to ∼2 km. The SAR data are distributed over a wide latitudinal and longitudinal range, enabling some conclusions to be drawn about the global distribution of processes. They reveal a geologically complex surface that has been modified by all the major geologic processes seen on Earth - volcanism, tectonism, impact cratering, and erosion and deposition by fluvial and aeolian activity. In this paper, we map geomorphological units from SAR data and analyze their areal distribution and relative ages of modification in order to infer the geologic evolution of Titan’s surface. We find that dunes and hummocky and mountainous terrains are more widespread than lakes, putative cryovolcanic features, mottled plains, and craters and crateriform structures that may be due to impact. Undifferentiated plains are the largest areal unit; their origin is uncertain. In terms of latitudinal distribution, dunes and hummocky and mountainous terrains are located mostly at low latitudes (less than 30°), with no dunes being present above 60°. Channels formed by fluvial activity are present at all latitudes, but lakes are at high latitudes only. Crateriform structures that may have been formed by impact appear to be uniformly distributed with latitude, but the well-preserved impact craters are all located at low latitudes, possibly indicating that more resurfacing has occurred at higher latitudes. Cryovolcanic features are not ubiquitous, and are mostly located between 30° and 60° north. We examine temporal relationships between units wherever possible, and conclude that aeolian and fluvial/pluvial/lacustrine processes are the most recent, while tectonic processes that led to the formation of mountains and Xanadu are likely the most ancient.  相似文献   

Simulation of the Askervein flow. Part 2: Large-eddy simulations     

A. Silva Lopes  J. M. L. M. Palma  F. A. Castro 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2007,125(1):85-108

Large-eddy simulations of the neutrally stratified flow over the Askervein Hill were performed, to improve the knowledge of the flow obtained from field measurements and numerical simulations with Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) methods. A Lagrangian dynamic subgrid model was used but, to avoid the underdissipative character near the ground, it was merged with a damped Smagorinsky model. Simulations of a flat boundary-layer flow with this subgrid model showed that the turbulent vertical motions and shear stress were better resolved using grids with a stream to spanwise aspect ratio Δx / Δy = 2 than with an aspect ratio Δx / Δy = 1. Regarding the flow over the Askervein Hill, it was found that large-eddy simulations provide an acceptable solution for the mean-velocity field and better predictions of the turbulent kinetic energy in the upstream side of the hill than the model. However, as with the model, grid convergence was not achieved in the lee side and the size of the zone with reversed flow increased with the grid refinement. Nevertheless, the existence of the intermittent separation predicted with unsteady RANS in part one of this work seems unquestionable, due to the deceleration of the flow. In our opinion, a better modelling of the decelerating boundary layer in the lee side is required to improve the results obtained using equilibrium assumptions and achieve grid convergence.  相似文献   

Soil/Geotextile Interface Behaviour in Direct Shear and Pullout Movements     

M. L. Lopes  R. Silvano 《Geotechnical and Geological Engineering》2010,28(6):791-804

This paper deals with soil/reinforced geotextile interface behaviour in direct shear and pullout movements. A soil/geosynthetic direct shear apparatus, developed in accordance to EN ISO 12957-1 (2004) and ASTM D5321-92 (1992) standards, is presented. Some details of the test (like: specimen fixation, influence of the vertical stress on the registered horizontal force, type of test and measurement of the vertical displacement) are discussed and modifications in the test procedures are adopted. Then, the reinforced geotextile and the residual soil of granite used in the research are described. The behaviour of soil/geosynthetic interface in direct shear is characterized based on modified direct shear tests and maximum interface shear stress is determined at peak and residual for a confining stress of 50 kPa. The modification in the pullout test apparatus described by Lopes and Ladeira (1996a; 1996b) and by Lopes and Lopes (1999) are noticed. The behaviour of soil/geosynthetic interface in pullout is characterized based on pullout tests performed, in accordance EN 13738 (2004), and interface shear stress at maximum pullout force is defined for a confining stress of 50 kPa. Finally, the values of interface coefficient at soil/geosynthetic interface are obtained in direct shear and in pullout and then compared. The main conclusions that can be outlined from the present study are the following: modifications should be made to EN ISO 12957-1 (2004) standard, namely in what concerns the dependence of the measured horizontal force from the vertical stress, the difficulties to perform constant area direct shear test with the lower half box filled with soil and on the measurement of the vertical displacement of the load plate; on the contrary to which is normally accepted the characteristics of the behaviour of soil/geosynthetic interface in pullout, when the geosynthetic has a full plane contact area with the soil, are not able to be obtained based on results of direct shear tests, as in this type of tests the contribution of the geosynthetic deformation on the characteristics of the interface in pullout is not considered.  相似文献