Effects of Greenhouse Gas Emissions on World Agriculture, Food Consumption, and Economic Welfare     

Roy Darwin 《Climatic change》2004,66(1-2):191-238

Because of many uncertainties, quantitative estimates of agriculturally related economic impacts of greenhouse gas emissions are often given low confidence. A major source of uncertainty is our inability to accurately project future changes in economic activity, emissions, and climate. This paper focuses on two issues. First, to what extent do variable projections of climate generate uncertainty in agriculturally related economic impacts? Second, to what extent do agriculturally related economic impacts of greenhouse gas emissions depend on economic conditions at the time of impacts? Results indicate that uncertainty due to variable projections of climate is fairly large for most of the economic effects evaluated in this analysis. Results also indicate that economic conditions at the time of impact influence the direction and size of as well as the confidence in the economic effects of identical projections of greenhouse gas impacts. The economic variable that behaves most consistently in this analysis is world crop production. Increases in mean global temperature, for example, cause world crop production to decrease on average under both 1990 and improved economic conditions and in both instances the confidence with respect to variable projections of climate is medium (e.g.,67%) or greater. In addition and as expected, CO₂ fertilization causesworld crop production to increase on average under 1990 and improved economic conditions. These results suggest that crop production may be a fairly robust indicator of the potential impacts of greenhouse gas emissions.A somewhat unexpected finding is that improved economic conditions are not necessarily a panacea to potential greenhouse-gas-induced damages, particularly at the region level. In fact, in some regions, impacts of climate change or CO₂ fertilization that are beneficial undercurrent economic conditions may be detrimental under improved economic conditions (relative to the new economic base). Australia plus New Zealand suffer from this effect in this analysis because under improved economic conditions they are assumed to obtain a relatively large share of income from agricultural exports. When the climate-change and CO₂-fertilization scenariosin this analysis are also included, agricultural exports from Australia plus New Zealand decline on average. The resultant declines in agricultural income in Australia plus New Zealand are too large to be completely offset by rising incomes in other sectors. This indicates that regions that rely on agricultural exports for relatively large shares of their income may be vulnerable not only to direct climate-induced agricultural damages, but also to positive impacts induced by greenhouse gas emissions elsewhere.  相似文献   

Geological controls on rock mass classification of coal from Huntly East Mine, New Zealand     

Vicki Moon  Trisha Roy 《Engineering Geology》2004,75(2):201-213

Rock Mass Rating (RMR) measurements from 65 sites within Huntly East underground coal mine are presented. All measurements are in coal, for which the dominant discontinuities are vertical cleat. Basic RMR values using two discontinuity spacings are presented: overall RMR based on the average spacing of all individual discontinuities; and cleat zone RMR based on the average spacing between zones of cleat. Cleat orientations are highly variable, but on average approximately parallel horizontal stress axes (face cleat follows maximum horizontal stress axis, butt cleat follows minimum horizontal stress axis).Contours of RMR variations throughout the mine are used to compare rock mass conditions with geological structure. It is apparent that: (1) RMR is least within downthrown fault blocks, and particularly immediately on the downthrown sides of faults, and greatest in upthrown fault blocks; and (2) RMR contours parallel horizontal stress axes within fault-bounded blocks, and bend to parallel faults at block boundaries. From similar contours for parameters contributing to RMR, the Rock Quality Designation (RQD), groundwater rating, and discontinuity condition rating create most of the observed variations in RMR. RQD is determined from the measured discontinuity frequency and hence is a measure of the degree of fracturing of the rock mass. This is interpreted as influencing the groundwater and condition parameters directly by allowing greater water ingress. Discontinuity frequency is greatest (least spacing) in the immediate vicinity of faults, and in downthrown fault blocks, generating low RMR values. Within fault blocks RQD varies little, so RMR contours align with cleat orientations.As RMR contours, faults, stress field and cleat orientation are clearly interrelated, there is unequivocally a connection between RMR and structural geology; this allows some predictive capacity in terms of ground conditions. If geological features can be accurately defined through either drilling programs or seismic surveys, then ground conditions may be predicted before panels are driven.  相似文献   

Beryllium-10 in Australasian tektites: Constraints on the location of the source crater     

P. Ma  K. Aggrey  C. Tonzola  C. Schnabel  P. de Nicola  J.T. Wasson  L. Brown  R. Middleton 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2004,68(19):3883-3896

By using accelerator mass spectrometry we have measured the ¹⁰Be concentrations of 86 Australasian tektites. Corrected to the time of tektite production ∼0.8 My ago, the ¹⁰Be concentrations (10⁶ atom/g) range from 59 for a layered tektite from Huai Sai, Thailand, to 280 for an australite from New South Wales, Australia. The average value is 143 ± 50. When tektites are sorted by country, their average measured ¹⁰Be concentrations increase slowly with increasing distance from Southeast Asia, the probable location of the tektite producing event, from 59 ± 9 for 6 layered tektites from Laos to 136 ± 20 for 20 splash-form tektites from Australia. The lowest ¹⁰Be concentrations for tektites fall on or within a contour centered off the shore of Vietnam, south of the Gulf of Tonkin (107°E; 17°N), but also encompassing two other locations in the area of northeastern Thailand previously proposed for the site of a single tektite-producing impact. The ¹⁰Be concentrations of layered tektites show only a weak anticorrelation (R ∼ −0.3) with the numbers of relict crystalline inclusions.Loosely consolidated, fine-grained terrestrial sediments or recently consolidated sedimentary rocks are the most likely precursor materials. Dilution of sediments with other kinds of rock raises problems in mixing and is not supported by petrographic data. Sedimentary columns that have the right range of ¹⁰Be concentrations occur off the coasts of places where sedimentation rates are high relative to those in the deep sea. A single impact into such a region, 15 to 300 m thick, could have propelled near-surface, high-¹⁰Be material farthest—to Australia—while keeping the deeper-lying, low-¹⁰Be layers closer to home. We do not rule out, however, other proposed mechanisms for tektite formation.  相似文献   

Analysis of earth dams affected by the 2001 Bhuj Earthquake   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Raghvendra Singh  Debasis Roy  Sudhir K. Jain   《Engineering Geology》2005,80(3-4):282-291

An earthquake of magnitude of 7.6 (M_w 7.6) occurred in Bhuj, India on January 26, 2001. This event inflicted damages of varying extents to a large number of small to moderate size multi-zone earth dams in the vicinity of the epicenter. Some of the distress was due to the liquefaction of saturated alluvium in foundation. Liquefaction was relatively localized for the majority of these dams because the earthquake struck in the middle of a prolonged dry season when the reservoirs behind these dams were nearly empty and shallow alluvium soils underneath the downstream portions of the dams were partly dry. Otherwise, liquefaction of foundation soils would have been more extensive and damage to these dams more significant. Six such dams have been examined in this paper. Four of these facilities, Chang, Shivlakha, Suvi, and Tapar were within the 50 km of epicenter region. These dams underwent free-field ground motion with peak ground accelerations between 0.28g to 0.52g. Of these Chang Dam underwent severe slumping, whereas Shivlakha, Suvi, and Tapar Dams were affected severely especially over the upstream sections. Fatehgadh Dam and Kaswati Dam were affected relatively less severely. Foundation conditions underneath these dams were first examined for assessing liquefaction potential. A limited amount of subsurface information available from investigations undertaken prior to the earthquake indicates that, although the foundation soils within the top 2.0 to 2.5 m underneath these dams were susceptible to liquefaction, Bhuj Earthquake did not trigger liquefaction because of lack of saturation of these layers underneath the downstream portions of these dams. These dams were then analyzed using a simple sliding block procedure using appropriate estimates of undrained soil strength parameters. The results of this analysis for these structures were found to be in general agreement with the observed deformation patterns.  相似文献   

Riddle of arsenic in groundwater of Bengal Delta Plain—role of non-inland source and redox traps     

D. Chatterjee  R. K. Roy  B. B. Basu 《Environmental Geology》2005,49(2):188-206

In the Bengal Delta Plain (BDP) the primary arsenic sourcing appears to be different from the global scenario. Here, the Terminal Pleistocene–Holocene depositional platform, the interactive early Holocene depositional morphology with fluvio-estuarine and marine incursions played a crucial role for arsenic sourcing and enrichment. The lenticular silt-fine sand layer between anoxic clay beds favoured entrapment of dissolved organic carbon with decayed phyto-planktons debris. The Terminal Pleistocene–Holocene transgression and regression processes may have acted as major events in the BDP. Interestingly, at the end of the last glacial maxima, the Pleistocene delta had undergone block movements, wherein some parts of the platform were raised above the level of Holocene deposition. Those blocks were found to be free from arsenic in the groundwater. The sea, during re-emerging inundation (10–7 ka BP), has witnessed a monsoon-induced environment in the BDP with the resultant oscillation of sea level leading to higher upsurge towards the north. This might have resulted in the marine incursion and inundation in pre-existing land depressions. Meanwhile arsenic entrapments through marine incursion as well as enrichment in the presence of organic carbon/DOC and/or Fe/Mn/Al catalytic agents could have developed into localised redox traps. It may be of relevance that due to the repetitive transgressive–regressive phases in Holocene, resulting in periodic exposure and weathering of iron-bearing minerals and consequent iron enrichment in the aquifer system. The iron, thus present, had free charge to host arsenic as a sink. It appears that arsenic, wherever found, would likely be of atypical localised exhaustible phenomenon, both in horizontal and vertical context. It also rationalises the cause of the absence of arsenic in the other nearby Pleistocene platform, which has not come across Holocene interaction and marine incursion, as to the likely limiting condition for the search for arsenic in the BDP or beyond.  相似文献   

Structural Control on Occurrence and Dynamics of Coalmine Fires in Jharia Coalfield: A Remote Sensing Based Analysis     

Priyom Roy  Arindam Guha  K. Vinod Kumar 《Journal of the Indian Society of Remote Sensing》2015,43(4):779-786

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Development of a rain‐on‐snow detection algorithm using passive microwave radiometry          下载免费PDF全文

Caroline Dolant  Alexandre Langlois  Benoit Montpetit  Ludovic Brucker  Alexandre Roy  Alain Royer 《水文研究》2016,30(18):3184-3196

Currently observed climate warming in the Arctic has numerous consequences. Of particular relevance, the precipitation regime is modified where mixed and liquid precipitation can occur during the winter season leading to rain‐on‐snow (ROS) events. This phenomenon is responsible for ice crust formation, which has a significant impact on ecosystems (such as biological, hydrological, ecological and physical processes). The spatially and temporally sporadic nature of ROS events makes the phenomenon difficult to monitor using meteorological observations. This paper focuses on the detection of ROS events using passive microwave (PMW) data from a modified brightness temperature (T_B) gradient approach at 19 and 37 GHz. The approach presented here was developed empirically for observed ROS events with coincident ground‐based PMW measurements in Sherbrooke, Quebec, Canada. It was then tested in Nunavik, Quebec, with the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for the Earth Observing System (AMSR‐E). We obtained a detection accuracy of 57, 71 and 89% for ROS detection for three AMSR‐E grid cells with a maximum error of 7% when considering all omissions and commissions with regard to the total number of AMSR‐E passes throughout the winter period. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

ISRM Suggested Methods for Determining Thermal Properties of Rocks from Laboratory Tests at Atmospheric Pressure     

Y. Popov  G. Beardsmore  C. Clauser  S. Roy 《Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering》2016,49(10):4179-4207

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Cloud — Aerosol interaction during lightning activity over land and ocean: Precipitation pattern assessment   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Jayanti Pal  Sutapa Chaudhuri  Arumita Roy Chowdhury  Tanuka Bandyopadhyay 《Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences》2016,52(3):251-261

The present study attempts to identify the land - ocean contrast in cloud - aerosol relation during lightning and non-lightning days and its effect on subsequent precipitation pattern. The thermal hypothesis in view of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) behind the land - ocean contrast is observed to be insignificant in the present study region. The result shows that the lightning activities are significantly and positively correlated with aerosols over both land and ocean in case of low aerosol loading whereas for high aerosol loading the correlation is significant but, only over land. The study attempts to comprehend the mechanism through which the aerosol and lightning interact using the concept of aerosol indirect effect that includes the study of cloud effective radius, cloud fraction and precipitation rate. The result shows that the increase in lightning activity over ocean might have been caused due to the first aerosol indirect effect, while over land the aerosol indirect effect might have been suppressed due to lightning. Thus, depending on the region and relation between cloud parameters it is observed that the precipitation rate decreases (increases) over ocean during lightning (non-lightning) days. On the other hand during non-lightning days, the precipitation rate decreases over land.  相似文献   

When Is Asia?     

Ananya Roy 《The Professional geographer》2016,68(2):313-321

Recently, in geography and related disciplines, there has been a call to generate conceptual frameworks from the Global South. Such a call does not imply cataloging the diversity and plurality of the world but rather requires new understandings of relationalities and transformations. In this article, I contribute to these ongoing endeavors by thinking from Asia. In doing so, I interpret Asia not as a bounded geographical location but instead as interconnected space. In particular, I pay attention to how such interconnections reference Asian models of development, thereby creating a politics of futurity. A study of the making of Asian futures allows a broader understanding of the renewal of development in a rearranged south–north world.  相似文献