Probabilistic rainfall thresholds for flood forecasting: evaluating different methodologies for modelling rainfall spatial correlation (or dependence)   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Saeed Golian  Bahram Saghafian  Mohammad Elmi  Reza Maknoon 《水文研究》2011,25(13):2046-2055

Rainfall threshold (RT) method is one of the evolving flood forecasting approaches. When the cumulative rainfall depth for a given initial soil moisture condition intersects the threshold rainfall curve, the peak discharge is expected to be equal or greater than the threshold discharge for flooding at the target site. Besides the total rainfall depth, spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall impacts the flood peak discharge and the time to peak. To revisit a previous study conducted by the authors, in which spatially independent rainfall pattern was assumed, the spatial distribution of rainfall was simulated following a Monte Carlo approach. The structure of the spatial dependence among sub‐watersheds' rainfalls was taken into account under three different scenarios, namely independent, bivariate copula (2copula) and multivariate Gaussian copula (MGC). For each set of generated random dimensionless rainfalls, the probabilistic RT curves were derived for dry moisture condition. Results were evaluated with both historical and simulated events. For the simulated events, threshold curves were assessed by means of categorical statistics, such as hit rate, false rate and critical success index (CSI). Results revealed that the best performance based on the CSI criterion corresponded to 50% curve in 2copula and MGC scenarios as well as 90% curve in the independent scenario. The recognition of 50% curve in 2copula and MGC scenarios is in agreement with our expectations that the mean probable curve should have the best performance. Moreover, the proposed inclusion of spatially dependent rainfall scenario improved the performance of RT curves by about 25% in comparison with the presumed spatially uniform rainfall scenario. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Determination of Realistic and Statistical Value of the Information Gathered from Exploratory Drilling     

Saeed Soltani  Ardeshir Hezarkhani 《Natural Resources Research》2011,20(4):207-216

Unlike other branches of geosciences, exploratory drilling has not been investigated within the framework of an information system; so, the expression “value of exploratory drilling information” (despite its common usage) is vague. This article presents a model for the evaluation of value of the information gathered from exploratory drilling after studying different mineral exploration and exploratory drilling systems within the framework of an “information system.” Although this model does not present the economic value of information, it is a suitable tool for comparing different drilling patterns. The model was verified on the basis of drilling data for the Gol-Gohar XIIA anomaly.  相似文献   

Burden prediction in blasting operation using rock geomechanical properties     

Mohammad Rezaei  Masoud Monjezi  Saeed Ghorbani Moghaddam  Farhad Farzaneh 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2011,5(5):1031-1037

Burden prediction is a vital task in the production blasting. Both the excessive and insufficient burden can significantly affect the result of blasting operation. The burden which is determined by empirical models is often inaccurate and needs to be adjusted experimentally. In this paper, an attempt was made to develop an artificial neural network (ANN) in order to predict burden in the blasting operation of the Mouteh gold mine, using considering geomechanical properties of rocks as input parameters. As such here, network inputs consist of blastability index (BI), rock quality designation (RQD), unconfined compressive strength (UCS), density, and cohesive strength. To make a database (including 95 datasets), rock samples are used from Iran’s Mouteh goldmine. Trying various types of the networks, a neural network, with architecture 5-15-10-1, was found to be optimum. Superiority of ANN over regression model is proved by calculating. To compare the performance of the ANN modeling with that of multivariable regression analysis (MVRA), mean absolute error (E _a), mean relative error (E _r), and determination coefficient (R ²) between predicted and real values were calculated for both the models. It was observed that the ANN prediction capability is better than that of MVRA. The absolute and relative errors for the ANN model were calculated 0.05 m and 3.85%, respectively, whereas for the regression analysis, these errors were computed 0.11 m and 5.63%, respectively. Moreover, determination coefficient of the ANN model and MVRA were determined 0.987 and 0.924, respectively. Further, a sensitivity analysis shows that while BI and RQD were recognized as the most sensitive and effective parameters, cohesive strength is considered as the least sensitive input parameters on the ANN model output effective on the proposed (burden).  相似文献   

An SVM-based machine learning method for the separation of alteration zones in Sungun porphyry copper deposit     

Maliheh Abbaszadeh  Ardeshir Hezarkhani  Saeed Soltani-Mohammadi 《Chemie der Erde / Geochemistry》2013

Sungun porphyry copper deposit is in East Azarbaijan province, NW of Iran. There exist four hypogene alteration types in Sungun: potassic, propylitic, potassic–phyllic, and phyllic. Copper mineralization is essentially associated more with the potassic and less with the phyllic alterations and their separation is, therefore, quite important. This research has tried to separate these two alteration zones in Sungun porphyry copper deposit using the Support Vector Machine (SVM) method based on the fluid inclusion data, and seven variables including homogenization temperatures, salinity, pressure, depth, density and the Cu grade have been measured and calculated for each separate sample. To apply this method, use is made of the radial basis function (RBF) as the kernel function. The best values for λ and C (the most important SVM parameters) that perform well in the training and test data are 0.0001 and 1, respectively. If these values for λ and C are applied, the phyllic and potassic alteration zones in the training and test data will be separated with an accuracy of about 95% and 100%, respectively. This method can help geochemists in separating the alteration zones because classifying and separating samples microscopically is not only very hard, but also quite time and money consuming.  相似文献   

Sorption of lead by chemically modified rice bran     

T. Fatima  R. Nadeem  A. Masood  R. Saeed  M. Ashraf 《International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology》2013,10(6):1255-1264

In this work, the effectiveness of native and chemically modified rice bran to remove heavy metal Pb(II) ions from aqueous solution was examined. Chemical modifications with some simple and low-cost chemicals resulted in enhancement of the adsorption capacities and had faster kinetics than native rice bran. Experiments were conducted in shake flasks to monitor the upshot of parameters over a range of pH, initial Pb(II) concentrations and contact times using a batch model study. The sorption capacities q (mg g^?1) increased in the following order: NaOH (147.78), Ca(OH)₂ (139.08), Al(OH)₃ (127.24), esterification (124.28), NaHCO₃ (118.08), methylation (118.88), Na₂CO₃ (117.12) and native (80.24). The utmost uptake capacity q (mg g^?1) was shown by NaOH-pretreated rice bran. The results showed that, using NaOH-modified rice bran, the chief removal of Pb(II) was 74.54 % at pH 5, primary Pb(II) concentration 100 mg L^?1 and contact time 240 min. Equilibrium isotherms for the Pb(II) adsorption were analyzed by Langmuir and Freundlich isotherm models. The Langmuir isotherm model, showing Pb(II) sorption as accessible through the high value of the correlation coefficient (R ² = 0.993), showed a q _max value of 416.61 mg g^?1. The kinetic model illustrated adsorption rates well, depicted by a second order, which gives an indication concerning the rate-limiting step. Thermodynamic evaluation of the metal ion ?G ^o was carried out and led to the observation that the adsorption reaction is spontaneous and endothermic in nature. NaOH chemically modified rice bran was a superb biosorbent for exclusion of Pb(II) and proved to be excellent for industrial applications.  相似文献   

Optimal design of structures for earthquake loads by a hybrid RBF-BPSO method     

Eysa Salajegheh  Saeed Gholizadeh  Mohsen Khatibinia 《地震工程与工程振动(英文版)》2008,7(1):13-24

The optimal seismic design of structures requires that time history analyses （THA） be carried out repeatedly. This makes the optimal design process inefficient, in particular, if an evolutionary algorithm is used. To reduce the overall time required for structural optimization, two artificial intelligence strategies are employed. In the first strategy, radial basis function （RBF） neural networks are used to predict the time history responses of structures in the optimization flow. In the second strategy, a binary particle swarm optimization （BPSO） is used to find the optimum design. Combining the RBF and BPSO, a hybrid RBF-BPSO optimization method is proposed in this paper, which achieves fast optimization with high computational performance. Two examples are presented and compared to determine the optimal weight of structures under earthquake loadings using both exact and approximate analyses. The numerical results demonstrate the computational advantages and effectiveness of the proposed hybrid RBF-BPSO optimization method for the seismic design of structures.  相似文献   

Prediction of rainfall using artificial neural networks for synoptic station of Mashhad: a case study     

Najmeh?Khalili  Saeed?Reza?KhodashenasEmail author  Kamran?Davary  Mohammad?Mousavi?Baygi  Fatemeh?Karimaldini 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2016,9(13):624

In this paper, we have utilized ANN (artificial neural network) modeling for the prediction of monthly rainfall in Mashhad synoptic station which is located in Iran. To achieve this black-box model, we have used monthly rainfall data from 1953 to 2003 for this synoptic station. First, the Hurst rescaled range statistical (R/S) analysis is used to evaluate the predictability of the collected data. Then, to extract the rainfall dynamic of this station using ANN modeling, a three-layer feed-forward perceptron network with back propagation algorithm is utilized. Using this ANN structure as a black-box model, we have realized the complex dynamics of rainfall through the past information of the system. The approach employs the gradient decent algorithm to train the network. Trying different parameters, two structures, M₅₃₁ and M₇₄₁, have been selected which give the best estimation performance. The performance statistical analysis of the obtained models shows with the best tuning of the developed monthly prediction model the correlation coefficient (R), root mean square error (RMSE), and mean absolute error (MAE) are 0.93, 0.99, and 6.02 mm, respectively, which confirms the effectiveness of the developed models.  相似文献   

Role of early warning systems for sustainable agriculture in Iran     

Saeed Sharafi  Mahmud Ramroudi  Mehdi Nasiri  Mohammad Galavi  Gholam Ali Kamali 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2016,9(19):734

Drought is a complex phenomenon in meteorology and can affect agriculture. Its impacts vary greatly since they depend not only on the magnitude, timing, duration, and frequency of rainfall deficits but also on the differing responses of various plants to water stress. The essence of good drought management is to use this range of responses to the best advantage. Iran is one of the world’s largest and most productive suppliers of food and fiber. The objective of this study was, therefore, to gather and analyze standardized information on the Role of Early Warning Systems for Sustainable Agriculture for cereals and leguminous and industrial crops in Iran environmental zones. Annual average rainfall (mm year^?1) and ET_O (mm year^?1) are 76.56 and 3001, respectively, in stations with very dry climate; 195.41 and 2249, respectively, in stations with dry climate; 343.9 and 1351, respectively, in stations with semi-dry climate; 583.8 and 1153, respectively, in stations with semi-humid climate; and 1272 and 949, respectively, in stations with humid climate. The maximum and minimum of annual average rainfall happened in Rasht (1337 mm year^?1) and Zabol (57 mm year^?1) stations, and the maximum and minimum for annual average ET_O happened in Chabahar (3909.15 mm year^?1) and Anzali harbor (890.6 mm year^?1), respectively. Therefore, 13.63 % of stations have suitable conditions for crop productions and 86.37 % are in critical conditions.  相似文献   

Storage dam’s locality placing by MCDM techniques (case study: three dams in Iran)     

Saeed Reza Khodashenas  Niloufar Yarahmadi 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2016,9(13):612

MCDM (multi-criteria decision making) techniques are used to choose the best alternative among the relevant ones and rank the others. In this research, MCDM techniques were used to choose and rank the best places for constructing storage dams in Iran. To achieve this goal, the relevant information and data about dam construction situations were collected. Then, the recommended places for constructing storage dams were ranked by using MCDM techniques and according to the most suitable criteria which have been chosen based on experts’ opinions. To rank dam constructing project, three MCDM techniques, i.e., TOPSIS, AHP, and DEMATEL, were used. The results showed that the application of MCDM models by putting emphasis on economic, social, political, and technical criteria enables government and watershed managers to choose the best alternative(s) for constructing a storage dam.  相似文献   

Erratum to: The interannual precipitation variability in the southern part of Iran as linked to large-scale climate modes     

Farnaz Pourasghar  Tomoki Tozuka  Saeed Jahanbakhsh  Behrooz Sari Sarraf  Hooshang Ghaemi  Toshio Yamagata 《Climate Dynamics》2012,39(12):3121-3121

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