Methodological Considerations for the Evaluation of Seismic Risk on Road Network   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Antonino D’Andrea  Salvatore Cafiso  Antonio Condorelli 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2005,162(4):767-782

The recent earthquakes in California and Japan have shown the fundamental role that the road infrastructure plays in emergencies. In fact, only the maintenance of a sufficient level of efficiency can help to quickly reach the affected areas and thus avoid further serious consequences. The necessity of guaranteeing the functionality of the transport network during seismic events therefore requires seismic risk planning extended also to the road infrastructures in order to support the management of post-earthquake emergencies. Analogously it is fundamentally important to have analysis instruments of the road system able to preventatively evaluate the effects of earthquakes in order to identify possible emergencies, therefore preparing a program of intervention to reduce seismic risk on road networks. This paper proposes a methodology for the evaluation of seismic risk of road infrastructures according to the following points:Study of seismic hazard of the site for the definition of a seismic scenario using attenuation models in relation to historical seismology and the geological and tectonic characteristics of the territory;Analysis of the direct exposure connected to the probability of the presence of road users on the different parts of the network directly exposed to the seismic event;Analysis of the indirect exposure relative to the distribution of the population and the infrastructures for which post-earthquake accessibility must be guaranteed;Evaluation of the functional vulnerability in relation to the potential replaceability of damaged stretches considering network configuration and geometrical characteristics;Evaluation of structural vulnerability of the stretch correlated to the characteristics (structural, mechanical, technological, etc.) of the different components (bridges, embankments, trenches, tunnels) that make up the stretches obtained by the use of correctly elaborated tables for each component.The determination of global risk indexes of the single stretches and of the network, evaluated by means of a relationship between the ascertained parameters derived from the investigation of the previous points, provides the necessary information for the definition of mitigation measures to reduce the risk and for management planning before and after disaster. The proposed methodology, which has already been applied to a restricted area, is currently being applied to the province of Catania (Sicily, Italy), which is one of the geographical regions of highest seismic risk in Europe, and its future extension to all of eastern Sicily is foreseeable.  相似文献   

Luminescence Variations in Fast-Growing Stalagmites from Uppsala, Sweden     

Hanna Sofia Sundqvist  y Baker  Karin Holmgren 《Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography》2005,87(4):539-548

Two fast‐growing stalagmites from a cellar vault in Uppsala, southeast Sweden, are analysed for their luminescent properties. The results indicate that variations in luminescence intensity in the stalagmites are annual. Due to problems in finding a suitable absolute dating method this assumption cannot yet be firmly tested; however, results from radiocarbon dating of one of the stalagmites do not contradict the proposal that the laminae are annual. If so, the speleothems have been growing for 10–15 years with a growth rate of 3–8 mm per year, which is a similar rate to other fast‐growing speleothems in Great Britain that have formed from the reaction of lime mortar and carbon dioxide. It is likely that the assumed annual laminae of the luminescence record represent a flush of organic material.  相似文献   

Analysis of seismological and geological observations formoderate-size earthquakes: the Colfiorito Fault System(Central Apennines, Italy)     

Salvatore Barba  & Roberto Basili 《Geophysical Journal International》2000,141(1):241-252

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Fault plane orientations of microearthquakes at Mt. Etna from the inversion of P-wave rise times     

Salvatore de Lorenzo  Elisabetta Giampiccolo  Carmen Martinez-Arevalo  Domenico Patanè  Annalisa Romeo 《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》2010,189(3-4):247-256

A crucial point in the analysis of tectonic earthquakes occurring in a volcanic area is the inference of the orientation of the structures along which the ruptures occur. These structures represent zones of weakness which could favor the migration of melt toward the surface and the assessment of their geometry is a fundamental step toward efficient evaluation of volcanic risk. We analyzed a high-quality dataset of 171 low-magnitude, tectonic earthquakes that occurred at Mt. Etna during the 2002–2003 eruption. We applied a recently developed technique aimed at inferring the source parameters (source size, dip and strike fault) and the intrinsic quality factor Q_p of P waves from the inversion of rise times. The technique is based on numerically calibrated relationships among the rise time of first P waves and the source parameters for a circular crack rupturing at a constant velocity. For the most of the events the directivity source effect did not allow us to constrain the fault plane orientation. For a subset of 45 events with well constrained focal mechanisms we were able to constrain the “true” fault plane orientation. The level of resolution of the fault planes was assessed through a non linear analysis based on the random deviates technique. The significance of the retrieved fault plane solutions and the fit of the assumed source model to data were assessed through a χ-square test. Most of the retrieved fault plane solutions agree with the geometrical trend of known surface faults. The inferred source parameters and Q_p are in agreement with the results of previous studies.  相似文献   

A statistical downscaling algorithm for thermal comfort applications     

David Rayner  Fredrik Lindberg  Sofia Thorsson  Björn Holmer 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2015,122(3-4):729-742

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Entropy production and coarse graining of the climate fields in a general circulation model     

Valerio Lucarini  Salvatore Pascale 《Climate Dynamics》2014,43(3-4):981-1000

We extend the analysis of the thermodynamics of the climate system by investigating the role played by processes taking place at various spatial and temporal scales through a procedure of coarse graining. We show that the coarser is the graining of the climatic fields, the lower is the resulting estimate of the material entropy production. In other terms, all the spatial and temporal scales of variability of the thermodynamic fields provide a positive contribution to the material entropy production. This may be interpreted also as that, at all scales, the temperature fields and the heating fields resulting from the convergence of turbulent fluxes have a negative correlation, while the opposite holds between the temperature fields and the radiative heating fields. Moreover, we obtain that the latter correlations are stronger, which confirms that radiation acts as primary driver for the climatic processes, while the material fluxes dampen the resulting fluctuations through dissipative processes. We also show, using specific coarse-graining procedures, how one can separate the various contributions to the material entropy production coming from the dissipation of kinetic energy, the vertical sensible and latent heat fluxes, and the large scale horizontal fluxes, without resorting to the full three-dimensional time dependent fields. We find that most of the entropy production is associated to irreversible exchanges occurring along the vertical direction, and that neglecting the horizontal and time variability of the fields has a relatively small impact on the estimate of the material entropy production. The approach presented here seems promising for testing climate models, for assessing the impact of changing their parametrizations and their resolution, as well as for investigating the atmosphere of exoplanets, because it allows for evaluating the error in the estimate of their thermodynamical properties due to the lack of high-resolution data. The findings on the impact of coarse graining on the thermodynamic fields on the estimate of the material entropy production deserve to be explored in a more general context, because they provide a way for understanding the relationship between forced fluctuations and dissipative processes in continuum systems.  相似文献   

Climate entropy budget of the HadCM3 atmosphere–ocean general circulation model and of FAMOUS, its low-resolution version     

Salvatore Pascale  Jonathan M. Gregory  Maarten Ambaum  Rémi Tailleux 《Climate Dynamics》2011,36(5-6):1189-1206

The entropy budget is calculated of the coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model HadCM3. Estimates of the different entropy sources and sinks of the climate system are obtained directly from the diabatic heating terms, and an approximate estimate of the planetary entropy production is also provided. The rate of material entropy production of the climate system is found to be ～50 mW m^?2 K^?1, a value intermediate in the range 30–70 mW m^?2 K^?1 previously reported from different models. The largest part of this is due to sensible and latent heat transport (～38 mW m^?2 K^?1). Another 13 mW m^?2 K^?1 is due to dissipation of kinetic energy in the atmosphere by friction and Reynolds stresses. Numerical entropy production in the atmosphere dynamical core is found to be about 0.7 mW m^?2 K^?1. The material entropy production within the ocean due to turbulent mixing is ～1 mW m^?2 K^?1, a very small contribution to the material entropy production of the climate system. The rate of change of entropy of the model climate system is about 1 mW m^?2 K^?1 or less, which is comparable with the typical size of the fluctuations of the entropy sources due to interannual variability, and a more accurate closure of the budget than achieved by previous analyses. Results are similar for FAMOUS, which has a lower spatial resolution but similar formulation to HadCM3, while more substantial differences are found with respect to other models, suggesting that the formulation of the model has an important influence on the climate entropy budget. Since this is the first diagnosis of the entropy budget in a climate model of the type and complexity used for projection of twenty-first century climate change, it would be valuable if similar analyses were carried out for other such models.  相似文献   

Two triaxial induction tools: sensitivity to radial invasion profile‡     

Sofia Davydycheva 《Geophysical Prospecting》2011,59(2):323-340

I study the responses of two different triaxial induction tools to invaded dipping anisotropic formations. I show that the triaxial measurements have generally higher sensitivity to the radial invasion profile, compared to the conventional induction measurements. This enables accurate interpretation of both the anisotropic formation properties and the invasion parameters. Multi‐spacing and single‐spacing multi‐frequency triaxial induction tools can both be used for this purpose. Failure to take the invasion properties into account may lead to misinterpretation of the vertical formation resistivity. Symmetrization of the apparent conductivity matrix opens ways for a visual interpretation of triaxial induction logs for the formation and the invasion zone properties. This technique enables simpler and faster inversion algorithms. I study how the effect of a conductive annulus forming around the invasion zone couples with effects of the dipping anisotropy and the dipping boundaries and show when these effects are additive. Thus, a visual detection of log parts affected by a conductive annulus becomes possible. The key tool for interpretation in complex 3D scenarios is efficient modelling software. I use a 3D finite‐difference modelling approach to simulate responses of induction logging tools of the new generation. Its high efficiency enables simultaneous multi‐spacing and multi‐frequency computing of the tool responses to arbitrary 3D anisotropic formations that made the study possible.  相似文献   

CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> and He degassing at El Chichón volcano,Chiapas, Mexico: gas flux,origin and relationship with local and regional tectonics   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Agnes Mazot  Dmitri Rouwet  Yuri Taran  Salvatore Inguaggiato  Nick Varley 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2011,73(4):423-441

During 2007–2008, three CO₂ flux surveys were performed on El Chichón volcanic lake, Chiapas, Mexico, with an additional survey in April 2008 covering the entire crater floor (including the lake). The mean CO₂ flux calculated by sequential Gaussian simulation from the lake was 1,190 (March 2007), 730 (December 2007) and 1,134 g m⁻² day⁻¹ (April 2008) with total emission rates of 164 ± 9.5 (March 2007), 59 ± 2.5 (December 2007) and 109 ± 6.6 t day⁻¹ (April 2008). The mean CO₂ flux estimated from the entire crater floor area was 1,102 g m⁻² day⁻¹ for April 2008 with a total emission rate of 144 ± 5.9 t day⁻¹. Significant change in CO₂ flux was not detected during the period of survey, and the mapping of the CO₂ flux highlighted lineaments reflecting the main local and regional tectonic patterns. The ³He/⁴He ratio (as high as 8.1 R _A) for gases in the El Chichón crater is generally higher than those observed at the neighbouring Transmexican Volcanic Belt and the Central American Volcanic Arc. The CO₂/³He ratios for the high ³He/⁴He gases tend to have the MORB-like values (1.41 × 10⁹), and the CO₂/³He ratios for the lower ³He/⁴He gases fall within the range for the arc-type gases. The high ³He/⁴He ratios, the MORB-like CO₂/³He ratios for the high ³He/⁴He gases and high proportion of MORB-CO₂ (M = 25 ±15%) at El Chichón indicate a greater depth for the generation of magma when compared to typical arc volcanoes.  相似文献   

Geochemistry of volcanic fluids     

Salvatore Inguaggiato  Hiroshi Shinohara  Tobias Fischer 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2011,73(4):369-371

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