The edifice of Yate volcano, a dissected stratocone in the Andean Southern Volcanic Zone, has experienced multiple summit collapses throughout postglacial time restricted to sectors NE and SW of the summit. The largest such historic event occurred on 19th February 1965 when ～6.1–10?×?106 m3 of rock and ice detached from 2,000-m elevation to the SW of the summit and transformed into a debris flow. In the upper part of the flow path, velocities are estimated to have reached 40 m s?1. After travelling 7,500 m and descending 1,490 m, the flow entered an intermontane lake, Lago Cabrera. A wavemaker of estimated volume 9?±?3?×?106 m3 generated a tsunami with an estimated amplitude of 25 m and a run-up of ～60 m at the west end of the lake where a settlement disappeared with the loss of 27 lives. The landslide followed 15 days of unusually heavy summer rain, which may have caused failure by increasing pore water pressure in rock mechanically weathered through glacial action. The preferential collapse directions at Yate result from the volcano’s construction on the dextral strike-slip Liquiñe-Ofqui fault zone. Movement on the fault during the lifetime of the volcano is thought to have generated internal instabilities in the observed failure orientations, at ～10° to the fault zone in the Riedel shear direction. This mechanically weakened rock may have led to preferentially orientated glacial valleys, generating a feedback mechanism with collapse followed by rapid glacial erosion, accelerating the rate of incision into the edifice through repeated landslides. Debris flows with magnitudes similar to the 1965 event are likely to recur at Yate, with repeat times of the order of 102 years. With a warming climate, increased glacial meltwater due to snowline retreat and increasing rain, at the expense of snow, may accelerate rates of edifice collapse, with implications for landslide hazard and risk at glaciated volcanoes, in particular those in strike-slip tectonic settings where orientated structural instabilities may exist. 相似文献
Upscaling pore-scale processes into macroscopic quantities such as hydrodynamic dispersion is still not a straightforward matter for porous media with complex pore space geometries. Recently it has become possible to obtain very realistic 3D geometries for the pore system of real rocks using either numerical reconstruction or micro-CT measurements. In this work, we present a finite element–finite volume simulation method for modeling single-phase fluid flow and solute transport in experimentally obtained 3D pore geometries. Algebraic multigrid techniques and parallelization allow us to solve the Stokes and advection–diffusion equations on large meshes with several millions of elements. We apply this method in a proof-of-concept study of a digitized Fontainebleau sandstone sample. We use the calculated velocity to simulate pore-scale solute transport and diffusion. From this, we are able to calculate the a priori emergent macroscopic hydrodynamic dispersion coefficient of the porous medium for a given molecular diffusion Dm of the solute species. By performing this calculation at a range of flow rates, we can correctly predict all of the observed flow regimes from diffusion dominated to convection dominated. 相似文献
In this work, we address the Black Sea setup of Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO), and in particular some
model enhancements associated with the most important characteristic of ocean dynamics in this semi-enclosed basin, that is
the sea-level variability and its relationship with water cycles and wind. Forcing data are presented in detail and compared
with previously used coarser-resolution data. One emphasis in this paper is on the statistical analyses of forcing data and
outputs from simulations with a focus on the sea level and its change. Numerical simulations are carried out as free run,
and alternatively, altimeter data assimilation based on displacement of water properties in the pycnocline is used. Comparisons
between the two runs identify the robustness of circulation driven by water balance and winter intensification. Problems in
the model to replicate the redistribution of water properties between the two sub-basins in free-run mode are also discussed,
which are observed during years with extreme climatic conditions. 相似文献
We compared the responses of two estuarine phytoplankton communities, one from a temperate (Chubut River estuary (CH), Argentina) and one from a sub-tropical site (Babitonga Bay (BB), Brazil), in a scenario of nutrient enrichment under solar ultraviolet radiation (UVR) exposure. Seawater samples were exposed in microcosms to two nutrients, ambient vs. enriched, and two radiation conditions, with and without UVR, and exposed to solar radiation for 4 days. We evaluated the short- (PSII photochemistry, during 90 min light and 90 min dark cycles, before and after the , whereas in BB, nutrient effects prevailed. Such differences were related to the previous light history of the cells and to the ambient nutrient status. After acclimation, an overall improvement of the photosynthetic performance was observed at both sites, either by reducing the relative inhibition or by increasing the recovery of the effective photochemical quantum yield. Interactive effects of UVR and nutrients on growth at CH were antagonistic, while at BB, no differences were observed between the interactive and the sum of effects. Part of the differences in the mid-term observed responses can be attributed to taxonomic changes, with the CH community dominated by diatoms throughout the experiment, but with a shift from a diatom to a flagellate-dominated community in BB. Temperature differences between both sites might have favored higher growth rates and flagellates dominance in BB under the nutrient enriched conditions. 相似文献
A methodology for the development of fully probabilistic seismic risk assessments on water and sewage networks is presented in this paper together with a case study for the system of Manizales, Colombia. These kinds of assessments require the development of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, the consideration of local site effects, when relevant, the assembly of databases to identify and characterize the exposed elements and the development and assignment of vulnerability models for each type of component. For the case of Manizales, a high-resolution exposure database has been developed (element by element, segment by segment) based on the information and data provided by the owner and operator of the network, Aguas de Manizales. Losses due to earthquakes are obtained after convoluting the hazard and vulnerability inputs in a fully probabilistic manner, using the state-of-the-art methodologies incorporated in the CAPRA risk assessment module. Several risk metrics such as the loss exceedance curve, the loss exceedance probabilities for different time frames and the average annual loss are obtained for the system as a whole as well as disaggregated by component. In addition, repair rates for the pipelines were also calculated. The risk results obtained in this study have been useful for the company in designing and implementing expansion and maintenance plans that explicitly account for seismic risk mitigation issues, as well as to explore and negotiate financial protection alternatives by means of risk transfer and retention schemes, thus becoming a valuable input in the continuous development of good disaster risk management practices in this city.
As part of a study of the cause of solar coronal heating, we searched for high-frequency (1 Hz) intensity oscillations in coronal loops in the [Fexiv] coronal green line. We summarize results from observations made at the 3 November 1994, total solar eclipse from the International Astronomical Union site in Putre, Chile, through partly cloudy skies, and at the 26 February 1998 total solar eclipse from Nord, Aruba, through clear skies. We discuss the image reduction and analysis of two simultaneous series of coronal CCD images digitized at 10 Hz for a total time of 160 s in Chile. One series of images was taken through a filter isolating the 5303 Å[Fexiv] coronal green line and the other through a 100 Å filter in the nearby K-corona continuum. We then discuss the modifications made for the 1998 eclipse, and the image reduction and analysis for those image sequences. After standard calibrations and image alignment of both data sets, we use Fourier analysis to search in the [Fexiv] channel for intensity oscillations in loops at the base of the corona. Such oscillations in the 1-Hz range are predicted as a result of density fluctuations from the resonant absorption of MHD waves. The dissipation of a significant amount of mechanical energy from the photosphere into the corona through this mechanism could provide sufficient energy to heat the corona. At neither eclipse do we find evidence for oscillations in the [Fexiv] green line at a level greater than 2% of coronal intensity. 相似文献
The Dalton Minimum (1790–1830) was a period with reduced solar irradiance and strong volcanic eruptions. Additionally, the
atmospheric CO2 concentrations started to rise from the background level of previous centuries. In this period most empirical climate reconstructions
indicate a minimum in global or hemispheric temperatures. Here, we analyse several simulations starting in 1755 with the coupled
atmosphere-ocean model ECHO-G driven by different forcing combinations to investigate which external forcing could have contributed
most strongly to the reduced temperatures during the Dalton Minimum. Results indicate that on global and hemispheric scales,
the volcanic forcing is largely responsible for the temperature drop in this period, especially during its second half, whereas
changes in solar forcing and the increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations were of minor importance. At regional scales, especially the extratropical, the impact of volcanic forcing
is much less discernible due to the large regional variability, a finding that agrees with empirical temperature reconstructions. 相似文献
We investigate the evolution of seismicity within large earthquake cycles in a model of a discrete strike-slip fault in elastic solid. The model dynamics is governed by realistic boundary conditions consisting of constant velocity motion of regions around the fault, static/kinetic friction and dislocation creep along the fault, and 3D elastic stress transfer. The fault consists of brittle parts which fail during earthquakes and undergo small creep deformation between events, and aseismic creep cells which are characterized by high ongoing creep motion. This mixture of brittle and creep cells is found to generate realistic aftershock sequences which follow the modified Omori law and scale with the mainshock size. Furthermore, we find that the distribution of interevent times of the simulated earthquakes is in good agreement with observations. The temporal occurrence, however, is magnitude-dependent; in particular, the small events are clustered in time, whereas the largest earthquakes occur quasiperiodically. Averaging the seismicity before several large earthquakes, we observe an increase of activity and a broadening scaling range of magnitudes when the time of the next mainshock is approached. These results are characteristics of a critical point behavior. The presence of critical point dynamics is further supported by the evolution of the stress field in the model, which is compatible with the observation of accelerating moment release in natural fault systems. 相似文献
The progressive electrification of the building conditioning sector in recent years has greatly contributed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by using renewable energy sources, particularly shallow geothermal energy. This energy can be exploited through open and closed shallow geothermal systems (SGS), and their performances greatly depend on the ground/groundwater temperature, which can be affected by both natural and anthropogenic phenomena. The present study proposes an approach to characterize aquifers affected by high SGS exploitation (not simulated in this work). Characterization of the potential hydro/thermogeological natural state is necessary to understand the regional flow and heat transport, and to identify local thermal anomalies. Passive microseismic and groundwater monitoring were used to assess the shape and thermal status of the aquifer; numerical modeling in both steady-state and transient conditions allowed understanding of the flow and heat transport patterns. Two significant thermal anomalies were detected in a fluvio-glacial aquifer in southern Switzerland, one created by river water exfiltration and one of anthropogenic nature. A favorable time lag of 110 days between river and groundwater temperature and an urban hot plume produced by underground structures were observed. These thermal anomalies greatly affect the local thermal status of the aquifer and consequently the design and efficiency of current and future SGS. Results show that the correct characterization of the natural thermo-hydrogeological status of an aquifer is a fundamental basis for determining the impact of boundary conditions and to provide initial conditions required to perform reliable local thermal sustainability assessments, especially where high SGS exploitation occurs.
