Seasonal to yearly assessment of temperature and precipitation trends in the North Western Mediterranean Basin by dynamical downscaling of climate scenarios at high resolution (1971–2050)     

M. Gonçalves  A. Barrera-Escoda  D. Guerreiro  J. M. Baldasano  J. Cunillera 《Climatic change》2014,122(1-2):243-256

The complex topography and high climatic variability of the North Western Mediterranean Basin (NWMB) require a detailed assessment of climate change projections at high resolution. ECHAM5/MPIOM global climate projections for mid-21st century and three different emission scenarios are downscaled at 10 km resolution over the NWMB, using the WRF-ARW regional model. High resolution improves the spatial distribution of temperature and precipitation climatologies, with Pearson's correlation against observation being higher for WRF-ARW (0.98 for temperature and 0.81 for precipitation) when compared to the ERA40 reanalysis (0.69 and 0.53, respectively). However, downscaled results slightly underestimate mean temperature (≈1.3 K) and overestimate the precipitation field (≈400 mm/year). Temperature is expected to raise in the NWMB in all considered scenarios (up to 1.4 K for the annual mean), and particularly during summertime and at high altitude areas. Annual mean precipitation is likely to decrease (around ?5 % to ?13 % for the most extreme scenarios). The climate signal for seasonal precipitation is not so clear, as it is highly influenced by the driving GCM simulation. All scenarios suggest statistically significant decreases of precipitation for mountain ranges in winter and autumn. High resolution simulations of regional climate are potentially useful to decision makers. Nevertheless, uncertainties related to seasonal precipitation projections still persist and have to be addressed.  相似文献   

Basement lithostratigraphy of the Adula nappe: implications for Palaeozoic evolution and Alpine kinematics   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Mattia Cavargna-Sani  Jean-Luc Epard  François Bussy  Alex Ulianov 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2014,103(1):61-82

The Adula nappe belongs to the Lower Penninic domain of the Central Swiss Alps. It consists mostly of pre-Triassic basement lithologies occurring as strongly folded and sheared gneisses of various types with mafic boudins. We propose a new lithostratigraphy for the northern Adula nappe basement that is supported by detailed field investigations, U–Pb zircon geochronology, and whole-rock geochemistry. The following units have been identified: Cambrian clastic metasediments with abundant carbonate lenses and minor bimodal magmatism (Salahorn Formation); Ordovician metapelites associated with amphibolite boudins with abundant eclogite relicts representing oceanic metabasalts (Trescolmen Formation); Ordovician peraluminous metagranites of calc-alkaline affinity ascribed to subduction-related magmatism (Garenstock Augengneiss); Ordovician metamorphic volcanic–sedimentary deposits (Heinisch Stafel Formation); Early Permian post-collisional granites recording only Alpine orogenic events (Zervreila orthogneiss). All basement lithologies except the Permian granites record a Variscan + Alpine polyorogenic metamorphic history. They document a complex Paleozoic geotectonic evolution consistent with the broader picture given by the pre-Mesozoic basement framework in the Alps. The internal consistency of the Adula basement lithologies and the stratigraphic coherence of the overlying Triassic sediments suggest that most tectonic contacts within the Adula nappe are pre-Alpine in age. Consequently, mélange models for the Tertiary emplacement of the Adula nappe are not consistent and must be rejected. The present-day structural complexity of the Adula nappe is the result of the intense Alpine ductile deformation of a pre-structured entity.  相似文献   

Effects of sinuosity factor on hydrodynamic parameters estimation in karst systems: a dye tracer experiment from the Beyyayla sinkhole (Eskişehir,Turkey)     

Harun Aydin  Mehmet Ekmekçi  Mehmet Evren Soylu 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2014,71(9):3921-3933

The sinuosity factor (SF) is a critical value in karst systems in terms of estimating their hydrodynamic parameters including groundwater velocity, coefficient of dispersion, etc., through dye tracer experiments. SF has been used in a number of different dye tracer experiments in karstic systems to estimate a representative flow path. While knowing SF is crucially important in the estimation of hydrodynamic parameters, its calculation is associated with significant uncertainty due to the complexity of subsurface karstic features. And yet, only a few studies have discussed its uncertainties, which might lead some errors in estimation of hydrodynamic parameters from dye tracer experiment. In this study, dye tracer experiments were conducted in two consecutive years (2003 and 2004) representing low and high flow conditions in the Beyyayla sinkhole (Eski?ehir, Turkey) where the flow path is well known. Uranine was used in experiments as a tracer and QTRACER computer program was used to determine the hydrodynamic properties of the Beyyayla karst system as well as to gain insights into the effects of SF from dye tracer experiments on estimated parameters. The results showed that the breakthrough curve follows a unimodal and a bimodal distribution in low and high flow conditions, respectively. These different distributions stem from the water transport mechanisms, where velocities were calculated as 58.2 and 93.6 m h^?1 during low and high flow conditions observed in a spring emerging from the south side of the studied system. The results also show that the coefficient of dispersion, Reynolds number, and Peclet number increased and longitudinal dispersivity decreased with the higher flow rate. Furthermore, the estimated parameters did not vary with either the flow conditions or the tracer transit time, but they have shown some variations with SF. When SF was increased by 50 %, a change in these parameters was obtained in the range of 50–125 %.  相似文献   

The effect of the geomagnetic activity to the hourly variations of ionospheric foF2 values at low latitudes     

Erdinç Timoçin  Ali Yeşil  İbrahim Ünal 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2014,7(10):4437-4442

In this study, the relationship between the hourly changes of the ionospheric critic frequency values of F2 layers in low latitudes and geomagnetic activity is examined by using statistical methods. The ionospheric critical frequency data has been taken from the Manila (121.1° E, 14.7° N) ionosonde station. In order to investigate the effect of sun activity on ionospheric critical frequency, the data of 1981 when the sun was active and of 1985 when the sun was less active has been used. According to the Granger causality test results, on 5 % significance level, a causality relationship from disturbance storm time (Dst) index values to ionospheric critical frequency values direction has been observed. However, a causality relationship from ionospheric critical frequency values to Dst values has not been observed. From the results of cause-and-effect analysis, it is evaluated that the effect of a shockwave occurring in geomagnetic activity on ionospheric critical frequency continues along 72 h, that is, geomagnetic activity has a long-term effect on ionospheric critical frequency. The response of ionospheric critical frequency to geomagnetic activity substantially depends on seasons. This response is more observed especially in equinox period when the sun is active and in winter months. The increase in geomagnetic activity causes ionospheric critical frequency to decrease in night hours and increase in day hours. The same relationship has not been observed exactly, though observed very little in winter months, for 1985 when the sun was less active.  相似文献   

Investigation of surface and subsurface displacements due to multiple tunnels excavation in urban area     

Alireza Talebinejad  Hamid Chakeri  Mahdi Moosavi  Yılmaz Özçelik  Bahtiyar Ünver  Mehmet Ali Hindistan 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2014,7(9):3913-3923

Underground structures are currently widely used and are built as urbanism develops. The interactions between perpendicularly crossing and parallel tunnels in the Tehran region are investigated by using a full three-dimensional (3D) finite difference analysis with elastic-plastic material models. Special attention is paid to the effect of subsequent tunneling on the support system, i.e., the shotcrete lining and rock bolts of the existing tunnel. Eventually, as the tunnels are excavated at certain levels, the interaction between the tunnels will certainly have a significant influence on both stress distribution and consequently deformations. Since multilayer tunneling is a three-dimensional phenomenon in nature, 3D numerical solutions must be utilized for analyzing effect of perpendicularly crossing tunnels at various levels. As Tohid twin tunnels and Line 7 pass beneath the Line 4 metro tunnel, changes in stress distribution, deformations, and surface settlements are studied for various conditions and the results are presented in this paper. Consequently, it is shown that there is a significant interaction between tunnels that necessitate certain preventive measures to maintain a stable tunneling operation.  相似文献   

Sedimentological and stratigraphic evolution of northern Lebanon since the Late Cretaceous: implications for the Levant margin and basin     

Nicolas Hawie  Remy Deschamps  Fadi H. Nader  Christian Gorini  Carla Müller  Delphine Desmares  Ahmed Hoteit  Didier Granjeon  Lucien Montadert  François Baudin 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2014,7(4):1323-1349

This paper presents an updated review of the Upper Mesozoic and Cenozoic sedimentological and stratigraphic evolution of the Levant margin with a focus on the northern Lebanon. Facies and microfacies analysis of outcrop sections and onshore well cores (i.e., Kousba and Chekka) supported by nannofossil and planktonic foraminifers biostratigraphy, allowed to constrain the depositional environments prevailing in the Turonian to Late Miocene. The “Senonian” (a historical term used to define the Coniacian to Maastrichtian) source rock interval was subdivided into four sub-units with related outer-shelfal facies: (1) Upper Santonian, (2) Lower, (3) Upper Campanian, and (4) Lower Maastrichtian. This Upper Cretaceous rock unit marks the major drowning of the former Turonian rudist platform. This paper confirms the Late Lutetian to Late Burdigalian hiatus, which appears to be a direct consequence of major geodynamic events affecting the Levant region (i.e., the continued collision of Afro-Arabia with Eurasia), potentially enhanced by regressional cycles (e.g., Rupelian lowstand). The distribution of Late Burdigalian–Serravallian rhodalgal banks identified in northern Lebanon was controlled by pre-existing structures inherited from the pulsating onshore deformation. Reef barriers facies occur around the Qalhat anticline, separating an eastern, restricted back-reef setting from a western, coastal to open marine one. The acme of Mount Lebanon’s uplift and exposure is dated back to the Middle–Late Miocene; it led to important erosion of carbonates that were subsequently deposited in paleo-topographic lows. The Late Cretaceous to Cenozoic facies variations and hiatuses show that the northern Lebanon was in a higher structural position compared to the south since at least the Late Cretaceous.  相似文献   

Analysis of the FEBEX multi‐barrier system including thermoplasticity of unsaturated bentonite     

Fabrice Dupray  Bertrand François  Lyesse Laloui 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2013,37(4):399-422

Deep geological repository involving a multibarrier system constitutes one of the most promising options for isolating high‐level radioactive waste from the human environment. To certify the efficiency of waste isolation, it is essential to understand the behaviour of confining geomaterial under a variety of environmental conditions. To this end, results from a near‐to‐real experiment, the full‐scale engineered barriers in situ experiment, are studied by means of a thermo–hydro–mechanical finite element approach, including a consistent thermoplastic constitutive model for unsaturated soils. Laboratory tests are simulated to calibrate model parameters. The results of the numerical simulations are compared with sensor measurements and show the ability of the model to reproduce the main behavioural features of the system. The influence of the hysteretic and temperature‐dependent retention of water on the mechanical response is exhibited. Finally, those results are interpreted in the light of thermoplasticity of unsaturated soils, which reveals the highly coupled and non‐linear characters of the processes encountered. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Human choices and environmental constraints: deciphering the variability of large game procurement from Mousterian to Aurignacian times (MIS 5-3) in southwestern France     

Emmanuel Discamps  Jacques Jaubert  François Bachellerie 《Quaternary Science Reviews》2011,30(19-20):2755-2775

The evolution in the selection of prey made by past humans, especially the Neandertals and the first anatomically modern humans, has been widely debated. Between Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 5 and 3, the accuracy of absolute dating is still insufficient to precisely correlate paleoclimatic and archaeological data. It is often difficult, therefore, to estimate to what extent changes in species procurement are correlated with either climate fluctuations or deliberate cultural choices in terms of subsistence behavior. Here, the full development of archeostratigraphy and Bayesian statistical analysis of absolute dates allows the archeological and paleoclimatic chronologies to be compared. The variability in hunted fauna is investigated using multivariate statistical analysis of quantitative faunal lists of 148 assemblages from 39 archeological sequences from MIS 5 through MIS 3. Despite significant intra-technocomplex variability, it is possible to identify major shifts in the human diet during these stages. The integration of archeological data, paleoclimatic proxies and the ecological characteristics of the different species of prey shows that the shifts in large game hunting can be explained by an adaptation of the human groups to climatic fluctuations. However, even if Middle and Early Upper Paleolithic men adapted to changes in their environment and to contrasting landscapes, they ultimately belonged to the ecosystems of the past and were limited by environmental constraints.  相似文献   

Chemical signature of intermediate water masses along western Portuguese margin     

Graça Cabeçadas  M. José Brogueira  M. Gelena Cavaco  Célia Gonçalves 《Journal of Oceanography》2010,66(2):201-210

Although the circulation of intermediate water masses in the eastern North Atlantic remains poorly defined, the presence of fresher intermediate waters, the Sub-Artic (SAIW) and the Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW), as well the saline intermediate Mediterranean Water (MW), has been tracked using biogeochemical properties. Here we assess the hydrographic and chemical structures of intermediate waters along the western Portuguese margin by examining the vertical distributions and property-property plots of chemical tracers (oxygen and nutrients). AAIW was traced by low oxygen and high nutrients, while SAIW was recognized by low nutrients. The Mediterranean Water (MW) undercurrent is shown to spread towards the eastern flank of Gorringe bank. Concurrently, the fresher waters gained salt by direct incorporation of MW, while this water was enriched in nutrients on its way northward and westward owing, to a great extent, to the entrainment of an AAIW branch. The distributions of nutrients and apparent oxygen utilization are discussed in terms of regional ocean circulation. Our analysis suggests a circulation pattern of the various intermediate waters along the western Portuguese margin: MW extends all over the area, but its presence is more pronounced around cape St. Vincent; SAIW apparently moves southward, reaching the Gorringe bank region, and AAIW flows northward along the coast and around the bank.  相似文献   

Towards a comprehensive approach to parameter estimation in land surface parameterization schemes     

Rafael Rosolem  Hoshin V. Gupta  W. James Shuttleworth  Luis Gustavo Gonçalves de Gonçalves  Xubin Zeng 《水文研究》2013,27(14):2075-2097

In climate models, the land–atmosphere interactions are described numerically by land surface parameterization (LSP) schemes. The continuing improvement in realism in these schemes comes at the expense of the need to specify a large number of parameters that are either directly measured or estimated. Also, an emerging problem is whether the relationships used in LSPs are universal and globally applicable. One plausible approach to evaluate this is to first minimize uncertainty in model parameters by calibration. In this paper, we conduct a comprehensive analysis of some model diagnostics using a slightly modified version of the Simple Biosphere 3 model for a variety of biomes located mainly in the Amazon. First, the degree of influence of each individual parameter in simulating surface fluxes is identified. Next, we estimate parameters using a multi‐operator genetic algorithm applied in a multi‐objective context and evaluate simulations of energy and carbon fluxes against observations. Compared with the default parameter sets, these parameter estimates improve the partitioning of energy fluxes in forest and cropland sites and provide better simulations of daytime increases in assimilation of net carbon during the dry season at forest sites. Finally, a detailed assessment of the parameter estimation problem was performed by accounting for the decomposition of the mean squared error to the total model uncertainty. Analysis of the total prediction uncertainty reveals that the parameter adjustments significantly improve reproduction of the mean and variability of the flux time series at all sites and generally remove seasonality of the errors but do not improve dynamical properties. Our results demonstrate that error decomposition provides a meaningful and intuitive way to understand differences in model performance. To make further advancements in the knowledge of these models, we encourage the LSP community to adopt similar approaches in the future. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献