A probabilistic model for real‐time flood warning based on deterministic flood inundation mapping     

Jiun‐Huei Jang  Pao‐Shan Yu  Sen‐Hai Yeh  Jin‐Cheng Fu  Chen‐Jia Huang 《水文研究》2012,26(7):1079-1089

Deterministic flood inundation mapping is valuable for the investigation of detailed flood depth and extent. However, when these data are used for real‐time flood warning, uncertainty arises while encountering the difficulties of timely response, message interpretation and performance evaluation that makes statistical analysis necessary. By incorporating deterministic flood inundation map outputs statistically by means of logistic regression, this paper presents a probabilistic real‐time flood warning model determining region‐based flood probability directly from rainfall, being efficient in computation, clear in message, and valid in physical meaning. The calibration and validation of the probabilistic model show a satisfactory overall correctness rate, with the hit rate far surpassing the false alarm rate in issuing flood warning for historical events. Further analyses show that the probabilistic model is effective in evaluating the level of uncertainty lying within flood warning which can be reduced by several techniques proposed in order to improve warning performance. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Geological Conditions of Tight Sandstone Gas Accumulation by Diffusion in Sulige Gasfield, Ordos Basin, China     

ZHAO Zhongying  LU Shan 《《地质学报》英文版》2015,89(Z1):222-225

<正>1 Introduction Tight sandstone gas reservoirs have become the focused field in the global unconventional natural gas exploration and tight sandstone gas output accounts for 75%of the unconventional gas output(Zou et al.,2013).In China,tight sandstone gas reserves and output account for a third of the whole country natural gas reserves and output(Zou  相似文献   

Recognition method for mid‐ to long‐term runoff forecasting factors based on global sensitivity analysis in the Nenjiang River Basin     

Hongyan Li  Miao Xie  Shan Jiang 《水文研究》2012,26(18):2827-2837

Mid‐ to long‐term runoff forecasting is important to China. Forecasting based on physical causes has become the trend of this field, and recognition of key factors is central to recent development. Here, global sensitivity analysis based on back‐propagation arithmetic was used to calculate the sensitivity of up to 24 factors that affect runoff in the Nenjiang River Basin. The following five indices were found to be key factors for mid‐ to long‐term runoff forecasting during flood season: Tibetan Plateau B, index of the strength of the East Asian trough, index of the area of the northern hemisphere polar vortex, zonal circulation index over the Eurasian continent and index of the strength of the subtropical high over the western Pacific. The hydrological climate of the study area and the rainfall–runoff laws were then analysed in conjunction with its geographical position and topographic condition. The rationality of the results can be demonstrated from the positive analysis point of view. The results of this study provide a general method for selection of mid‐ to long‐term runoff forecasting factors based on physical causes. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Wellbore flow‐rate solution for a constant‐head test in two‐zone finite confined aquifers     

Chi‐Shan Tsai  Hund‐Der Yeh 《水文研究》2012,26(21):3216-3224

The solution describing the wellbore flow rate in a constant‐head test integrated with an optimization approach is commonly used to analyze observed wellbore flow‐rate data for estimating the hydrogeological parameters of low‐permeability aquifers. To our knowledge, the wellbore flow‐rate solution for the constant‐head test in a two‐zone finite‐extent confined aquifer has never been reported so far in the literature. This article is first to develop a mathematical model for describing the head distribution in the two‐zone aquifer. The Laplace domain solutions for the head distributions and wellbore flow rate in a two‐zone finite confined aquifer are derived using the Laplace transform, and their corresponding time domain solutions are then obtained using the Bromwich integral method and residue theorem. These new solutions are expressed in terms of an infinite series with Bessel functions and not straightforward to calculate numerically. A large‐time solution for the wellbore flow rate is therefore developed by employing the relationship of small Laplace variable versus large time variable and L'Hospital's rule. The result shows that the large‐time solution is identical to the steady‐state solution obtained after applying the Tauberian theorem into the Laplace domain solution. This large‐time solution can reduce to the Thiem equation in the case of no skin. Finally, the newly developed solution is used to investigate the effects of outer boundary distance and conductivity ratio on the wellbore flow rate. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Exact solutions for one‐dimensional transient response of fluid‐saturated porous media     

Zhendong Shan  Daosheng Ling  Haojiang Ding 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2011,35(4):461-479

Based on the Biot theory, the exact solutions for one‐dimensional transient response of single layer of fluid‐saturated porous media and semi‐infinite media are developed, in which the fluid and solid particles are assumed to be compressible and the inertial, viscous and mechanical couplings are taken into account. First, the control equations in terms of the solid displacement u and a relative displacement w are expressed in matrix form. For problems of single layer under homogeneous boundary conditions, the eigen‐values and the eigen‐functions are obtained by means of the variable separation method, and the displacement vector u is put forward using the searching method. In the case of nonhomogeneous boundary conditions, the boundary conditions are first homogenized, and the displacement field is constructed basing upon the eigen‐functions. Making use of the orthogonality of eigen‐functions, a series of ordinary differential equations with respect to dimensionless time and their corresponding initial conditions are obtained. Those differential equations are solved by the state‐space method, and the series solutions for three typical nonhomogeneous boundary conditions are developed. For semi‐infinite media, the exact solutions in integral form for two kinds of nonhomogeneous boundary conditions are presented by applying the cosine and sine transforms to the basic equations. Finally, three examples are studied to illustrate the validity of the solutions, and to assess the influence of the dynamic permeability coefficient and the fluid inertia to the transient response of porous media. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

贵州省毕节市耕地土壤元素含量特征与质量评价     

张德明  骆珊  彭成龙  安亚运  秦兴志 《贵州地质》2021,38(4):472-479

为详细了解毕节市耕地土壤的元素含量特征及质量状况,本文通过1∶50000耕地质量地球化学调查,获得了全市耕地土壤中元素的高精度分析数据。统计结果表明毕节市耕地土壤中硒、镉、铜、锰、钴、钒处于较高含量水平;元素的高含量及分布与成土母质、土壤酸碱度、土壤类型及土地利用方式的影响关系密切,其中成土母质为主要影响因素。选取养分指标氮、磷、钾及环境指标酸碱度、砷、镉、铬、铜、汞、镍、铅、锌等对毕节市耕地土壤进行量化评价,结果显示全市中-酸性耕地占比8531%,三等及以上耕地占比8218%,耕地土壤质量状况总体良好。土壤养分和土壤环境质量是耕地土壤质量评价的主要内容,其中土壤养分质量中等-较丰富等级占比9204%,磷、钾较缺乏-缺乏等级占比较高是制约土壤养分质量的重要因素;土壤环境质量优先保护类-安全利用类占比8237%,镉高含量区的分布是影响土壤环境质量的关键因素。本研究系统分析毕节市耕地土壤元素含量特征及其影响因素,对耕地土壤质量进行量化评价,为该地区农业生产中选择适宜的利用方式开发耕地资源和发展山地特色农业产业提供了地球化学支撑。  相似文献   

黑龙江东部林口地区下白垩统穆棱组 砾岩的成因及其意义   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

张云鹏  任建业  赵学钦  汤艳  王珊  杨承志 《地质通报》2012,31(10):1731-1738

大三江地区是中国东部重要的油气资源接替区,早白垩世时期该地区曾为一个统一的盆地,之后盆地遭受破坏分解。如何确定当时的盆地边界进而恢复盆地原型,是该地区亟待解决的关键地质问题之一。前人对盆地边界的确定大都以理论推测为主,缺乏实际证据。本次工作在黑龙江林口地区发现一套穆棱组底部砾岩,对砾石进行成分及分选特征、沉积特征等的统计与分析,结合古水流恢复和地震解释资料,认为该套砾岩整体为冲积扇相,以河道砾岩沉积和漫流砾岩沉积为主,物源主要来自盆地西部的张广才岭。结合地震资料分析,认为研究区穆棱组时期的沉积模型为冲积扇相向滨浅湖亚相的直接过渡。本研究不仅为大三江盆地西部边界的确定提供了直接证据,同时也为该地区今后的油气勘探指明了方向。  相似文献   

蚀变火成岩储层导电机理及饱和度方程     

张丽华  潘保芝  单刚义 《吉林大学学报(地球科学版)》2012,(Z2):429-435,451

火成岩储层非均质性极强,而且或多或少会蚀变产生黏土矿物,导致准确计算火成岩储层含水饱和度较困难。为此,首先建立包含蚀变产生黏土的混合骨架体积模型,然后分析了火成岩的导电机理,认为孔隙结构和黏土的附加导电是影响其导电的主要因素。根据火成岩储层孔隙由基质孔隙、裂缝和非连通孔洞组成的特点,建立包含基质、裂缝和非连通孔洞的三重孔隙模型,得到计算孔隙度指数的公式,最后建立评价火成岩储层的包含黏土影响的饱和度方程。计算孔隙度与岩心分析孔隙度对比,平均绝对误差为0.81%,平均相对误差为19.78%;计算的含水饱和度与密闭取心分析的含水饱和度对比,平均绝对误差为13.49%,平均相对误差为31.00%。  相似文献   

金刚石中微量元素的同步辐射X射线荧光分析     

赖潇静  李奇  徐伟  陈栋梁  巫翔  秦善 《地质科技情报》2012,(4):40-43

利用同步辐射X射线荧光技术,对人工合成金刚石以及产自山东、辽宁、湖南的天然金刚石进行了微量元素的测试分析。结果表明,在合成金刚石中,检测到了第四周期的元素(除As、Ge、Kr和Br外)和Pb;其中Fe、Co、Ni相对含量高,可能是合成时触媒的混入引起的。天然金刚石中检测到的微量元素有Ca、Ti、Cr、Mn、Fe、Co、Ni、Cu、Zn、W、Au和Pb,但相对含量比合成金刚石中相应的微量元素相对含量低。不同产地的天然金刚石中的微量元素种类及含量存在差异,反映了金刚石地幔生长环境的不同及岩浆对金刚石生长过程的影响。  相似文献   

北京西山下苇甸中寒武统张夏组生物丘发育特征及其地质意义   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

赫云兰  刘波  秦善  赵鹏沄 《地质科技情报》2012,31(1):9-15

北京西山下苇甸剖面寒武系地层出露完整,中寒武统张夏组底部和顶部发育两期生物丘地层.通过野外观察及薄片鉴定发现,张夏组底部发育的生物丘为凝块石生物丘,顶部发育的为叠层石生物丘,两期生物丘的造丘生物主要为藻类.凝块石生物丘生长在低能的潮下带环境,而叠层石生物丘则形成于海水能量较高的潮间带或潮下带上部.不同的沉积环境造成了两期生物丘内部结构的差异,主要体现在造丘生物的排列方式上.根据该剖面两期生物丘的特征,总结了生物丘的发育模式,并对其地质意义进行了探讨.  相似文献