Bivariate frequency analysis of low flow using copula functions (case study: Dez River Basin,Iran)     

Farshad Ahmadi  Feridon Radmaneh  Mohammad Reza Sharifi  Rasoul Mirabbasi 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2018,77(18):643

Accurate estimation of low flow as a criterion for different objectives in water resource management, including drought is of crucial importance. Despite the complex nature of water deficits, univariate methods have often been used to analyze the frequency of low flows. In this study, low flows of Dez River basin were examined during period of 1956–2012 using copula functions at the upstream of headbranches’ junction. For this purpose, at first 7-day series of low flow was extracted at the studied stations, then their homogeneity was examined by Mann–Kendall test. The results indicated that 7-day low flow series of Dez basin were homogenous. In the next stage, 12 different distribution functions were fitted onto the low flow data. Finally, for Sepid Dasht Sezar (SDS), Sepid Dasht Zaz (SDZ), and Tang Panj Bakhtiyari (TPB) stations, logistic distribution had the best fit, while for Tang Panj Sezar (TPS) station, GEV distribution enjoyed the best fit. After specifying the best fitted marginal distributions, seven different copula functions including Ali–Mikhail–Haq (AMH), Frank, Clayton, Galambos, Farlie–Gumbel–Morgenstern (FGM), Gumbel–Hougaard (GH), and Plackett were used for bivariate frequency analysis of the 7-day low flow series. The results revealed that the GH copula had the best fitness on paired data of SDS and SDZ stations. For TPS and TPB stations, Frank copula has had the best correspondence with empirical copula values. Next, joint and conditional return periods were calculated for the low flow series at the upstream of branches’ junction. The results of this study indicated that the risk of incidence of severe drought is higher in upstream stations (SDZ and SDS) when compared with downstream stations (TPB and TPS) in Dez basin. Generally, application of multivariate analysis allows researchers to investigate hydrological events with a more comprehensive view by considering the simultaneous effect of the influencing factors on the phenomenon of interest. It also enables them to evaluate different combinations of required scenarios for integrated management of basin and planning to cope with the damages caused by natural phenomena.  相似文献   

Assessment of hydrochemistry and heavy metals pollution in the groundwater of Ardestan mineral exploration area,Iran     

Samaneh Ahmadi  Reza Jahanshahi  Vahid Moeini  Sepideh Mali 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2018,77(5):212

The aim of this research is to determine the effective factors on the hydrogeochemistry and assessment of heavy metals pollution indices in the groundwater of Ardestan copper exploration area, Iran. In this study, in total, 111 groundwater samples from one well and several qanats and springs were collected. Piper and Stiff diagrams and statistical methods and quality indices were applied to hydrochemical data. Afterward, the water samples were classified into four groups, namely CaHCO3, CaCl, NaCl, and NaHCO3. According to evaluation indices, considering the fact that only a few points are in the high risk level, the groundwater of the study area has a low level of pollution. On the other hand, the pH of the groundwater of the region was mostly neutral and acid mine drainage was not found. Since the condition of the area is in pre-mining process, two factors are possibly influential: (1) rocks or minerals having sulfides are not exposed to an atmosphere (normally below groundwater) and H⁺ release does not occur and (2) the existence of minerals containing silicate and carbonate that can rapidly reduce acidification of water. Finally, it seems that during mining and in post-mining conditions, acid rock drainage which results from the oxidation of sulfides will probably influence the quality of water resources in Ardestan city. This is because the groundwater flow direction is from the mine toward Ardestan plain.  相似文献   

Courbes Intensité–Durée–Fréquence (IDF): comparaison des estimateurs des durées partielles et des maximums annuels     

Ahmadi Kingumbi  Alain Mailhot 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(2):162-176

Résumé

Cette étude compare, pour la région sud du Québec (Canada), différents estimateurs des courbes intensité–durée–fréquence (IDF) basés sur les séries de durées partielles (SDP) et sur celles des maximums annuels (SMA). Deux modèles ont été considérés pour les SMA, le premier utilisant un paramètre local (SMA-1), et le second utilisant deux paramètres locaux (SMA-2). Pour les SDP, les séries ont été construites en fixant, d'une part, un seuil régional (SDP-1) et, d'autre part, le nombre moyen régional de dépassements du seuil (SDP-2). Les quantiles et les intervalles de confiance à 90% des différents modèles ont été estimés et comparés. Le modèle SDP-1 a été finalement retenu puisque, d'après la littérature, il conviendrait à une région comme celle sous étude dont l'hétérogénéité est raisonnable. Par ailleurs, le modèle SDP-1 reproduit relativement bien les quantiles et probabilités empiriques. Les quantiles générés, à chaque site, par ce modèle régional sont comparés à ceux obtenus à partir d'un modèle SDP local.

Citation Kingumbi, A. & Mailhot, A. (2010) Courbes Intensité–Durée–Fréquence (IDF): comparaison des estimateurs des durées partielles et des maximums annuels. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(2), 162–176.  相似文献   

Mechanical and Physical Characterization of Tabriz Marls, Iran     

Ali Hooshmand  Mohammad H. Aminfar  Ebrahim Asghari  Hamid Ahmadi 《Geotechnical and Geological Engineering》2012,30(1):219-232

Three types of marls can be found in the Tabriz area (Iran): yellow, green, and gray/black marls. In the present paper, strength and deformation characteristics of Tabriz marls and their stress–strain behavior are investigated by various in situ and laboratory tests. In order to study the deformation behavior of these marls, various experiments such as the pressuremeter test, plate loading test (PLT), seismic wave velocity test, uniaxial compression test, standard penetration test (SPT), and direct shear test were carried out. Ranges of strain at the elastic and failure points were determined. Young’s and shear modulus were obtained. Test results showed that the strength characteristics increase with depth. The value of deformation modulus determined by the pressuremeter test was in good agreement with those obtained from the PLT. This implies that pressuremeter is a suitable in situ test for characterizing the deformation modulus of marl. Deformation modulus obtained from pressuremeter and plate loading tests were approximately 4–5 times the results of uniaxial compressive test and the deformation modulus obtained from seismic data was about 30–50 times the static deformation modulus. Stress–strain curves showed that the maximum value of strain at the elastic and failure points and the minimum value of strength and deformation modulus are corresponding to the yellow marls while the minimum value of strain and the maximum value of strength and deformation modulus are corresponding to the gray/black marls. Some empirical relationships between different characteristics of Tabriz marls were also derived.  相似文献   

An investigation on the ground motion parameters and seismic response of underground structures          下载免费PDF全文

Hamid Reza Nejati  Morteza Ahmadi  Hamid Hashemolhosseini 《地震科学（英文版）》2012,25(3):253-261

Peak ground acceleration (PGA), frequency content and time duration are three fundamental parameters of seismic loading. This study focuses on the seismic load frequency and its effect on the underground structures. Eight accelerograms regarding different occurred earthquakes that are scaled to an identical PGA and variation of ground motion parameters with ratio of peak ground velocity (PGV) to PGA, as a parameter related to the load frequency, are considered. Then, concrete lining response of a circular tunnel under various seismic conditions is evaluated analytically. In the next, seismic response of underground structure is assessed numerically using two different time histories. Finally, effects of incident load frequency and frequency ratio on the dynamic damping of geotechnical materials are discussed. Result of analyses show that specific energy of seismic loading with identical PGA is related to the seismic load frequency. Furthermore, incident load frequency and natural frequency of a system have influence on the wave attenuation and dynamic damping of the system.  相似文献   

Investigation of spatial and temporal variability of precipitation in Iran over the last half century   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3  

Keivan Khalili  Mohammad Nazeri Tahoudi  Rasoul Mirabbasi  Farshad Ahmadi 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2016,30(4):1205-1221

Investigation of the precipitation phenomenon as one of the most important meteorological factors directly affecting access to water resources is of paramount importance. In this study, the precipitation concentration index (PCI) was calculated using annual precipitation data from 34 synoptic stations of Iran over a 50-year period (1961–2010). The trend of precipitation and the PCI index were analyzed using the Mann–Kendall test after removing the effect of autocorrelation coefficients in annual and seasonal time scales. The results of zoning the studied index at annual time scale revealed that precipitation concentration follows a similar trend within two 25-year subscales. Furthermore, the PCI index in central and southern regions of the country, including the stations of Kerman, Bandarabbas, Yazd, Zahedan, Shahrekord, Birjand, Bushehr, Ahwaz, and Esfahan indicates a strong irregularity and high concentration in atmospheric precipitations. In annual time scale, none of the studied stations, had shown regular concentration (PCI < 10). Analyzing the trend of PCI index during the period of 1961–2010 witnessed an insignificant increasing (decreasing) trend in 16 (15) stations for winter season, respectively, while it faced a significant negative trend in Dezful, Saghez, and Hamedan stations. Similarly, in spring, Kerman and Ramsar stations exhibited a significant increasing trend in the PCI index, implying significant development of precipitation concentration irregularities in these two stations. In summer, Gorgan station showed a strong and significant irregularity for the PCI index and in autumn, Tabriz and Zahedan (Babolsar) stations experienced a significant increasing (decreasing) trend in the PCI index. At the annual time scale, 50 % of stations experienced an increasing trend in the PCI index. Investigating the changes in the precipitation trend also revealed that in annual time scale, about 58 % of the stations had a decreasing trend. In winter, which is the rainiest season in Iran, about 64 % of stations experienced a decreasing trend in precipitation that caused an increasing trend in PCI index. Comparing the spatial distribution of PCI index within two 25 years sub-periods indicated that the PCI index of the second sub-period increased in the spring time scale that means irregularity of precipitation distribution has been increased. But in the other seasons any significant variations were not observed. Also in the annual time scale the PCI index increased in the second sub-period because of the increasing trend of precipitation.  相似文献   

Mapping of regional potential groundwater springs using Logistic Regression statistical method   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Jalal?ZandiEmail author  Pezhman?Taherei?Ghazvinei  Roslan?Hashim  Khamaruzaman?Bin?Wan?Yusof  Junaidah?Ariffin  Shervin?Motamedi 《Water Resources》2016,43(1):48-57

Increasing demand for fresh water extraction in the semi-arid regions necessitates the exploration of groundwater spring potential areas notwithstanding the importance of both conservation and management aspects for planning development. Potential map of groundwater springs reduces the costs of horizontal well drilling that provides useful tool for engineers to locate probable region for groundwater existence. The objective of this study is to establish a model of the potential map of groundwater spring occurrences. A statistical and probabilistic Logistic Regression (LR) model was developed in association with the specified spring location and effective occurrence factors. The most statistically significant effective factors on spring occurrences were selected to zone groundwater spring potential areas. The proposed model was evaluated statistically. Results showed a satisfactory prediction for the proposed model. The outcome of this study facilitates the low-cost utilization of groundwater resources when policy makers need strategic development planning.  相似文献   

Response of nonlinear soil‐MDOF structure systems subjected to distinct frequency‐content components of near‐fault ground motions          下载免费PDF全文

Faramarz Khoshnoudian  Ehsan Ahmadi  Sina Sohrabi 《地震工程与结构动力学》2014,43(5):701-716

This paper is devoted to investigate the effects of near‐fault ground motions on the seismic responses of nonlinear MDOF structures considering soil‐structure interaction (SSI). Attempts are made to take into account the effects of different frequency‐content components of near‐fault records including pulse‐type (PT) and high‐frequency (HF) components via adopting an ensemble of 54 near‐fault ground motions. A deep sensitivity analysis is implemented based on the main parameters of the soil‐structure system. The soil is simulated based on the Cone model concept, and the superstructure is idealized as a nonlinear shear building. The results elucidate that SSI has approximately increasing and mitigating effects on structural responses to the PT and HF components, respectively. Also, a threshold period exists above which the HF component governs the structural responses. As the fundamental period of the structure becomes shorter and structural target ductility reduces, the contribution of the HF component to the structural responses increases, elaborately. Soil flexibility makes the threshold period increase, and the effect of the PT component becomes more significant than the HF one. In the case of soil‐structure system, slenderizing the structure also increases this threshold period and causes the PT component to be dominant. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Microbiostratigraphy of the Upper Paleocene to Middle Eocene Jahrum Formation in the Folded Zagros Zone,SW Iran     

S. Izadighalati  V. Ahmadi 《Stratigraphy and Geological Correlation》2017,25(7):759-770

The Jahrum Formation (Upper Paleocene to Middle Eocene) is composed of carbonate and dolomitic carbonate rocks in the Zagros Basin. The Zagros is located at the boundary between the Arabian and Eurasian lithosphere plates and represent the orogenic response to a collision between Eurasia and advancing Arabia during the Cenozoic. The study area is located in the northern part of Kuh-E-Tudej, ~175 km southeast of Shiraz in the Folded Zagros Zone. The Jahrum Formation at Kuh-E-Tudej, with a thickness of 190 m, consists of medium to massive bedded limestone. The following foraminiferal index species are identified in the studied section: Fallotella alavensis, Kathina sp., Miscellanea sp., Lockhartia sp.,Orbitolites shirazeinsis, Nummulites sp., Opertorbitolites sp., Dictyoconus cf. egyptiensis, Orbitolites cf. complanatus, Dictyoconus sp., Coskinolina sp., Somalina stefaninii, Discocyclina sp., Praerhapydionina sp., Coskinolina cf. liburnica, Nummulites cf. globulus, Nummulites cf. aturicus, and Alveolina sp. The age of the studied sediments ranges from Upper Paleocene to Middle Eocene. The microbiostratigraphic studies revealed four biozones based on the foraminifers identified in the studied section.  相似文献   

Potential of adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system for evaluation of drought indices     

Milan Gocić  Shervin Motamedi  Shahaboddin Shamshirband  Dalibor Petković  Roslan Hashim 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2015,29(8):1993-2002

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