The 2014 seismic hazard model of the Middle East: overview and results     

Karin Şeşetyan  Laurentiu Danciu  Mine B. Demircioğlu Tümsa  Domenico Giardini  Mustafa Erdik  Sinan Akkar  Levent Gülen  Mehdi Zare  Shota Adamia  Anooshiravan Ansari  Avetis Arakelyan  Ayşegül Askan  Mher Avanesyan  Hektor Babayan  Tamaz Chelidze  Raffi Durgaryan  Ata Elias  Hossein Hamzehloo  Khaled Hessami  Doğan Kalafat  Özkan Kale  Arkady Karakhanyan  Muhammad Asif Khan  Tahir Mammadli  Mahmood Al-Qaryouti  Mohammad Sayab  Nino Tsereteli  Murat Utkucu  Otar Varazanashvili  Muhammad Waseem  Hilal Yalçın  Mustafa Tolga Yılmaz 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2018,16(8):3535-3566

The Earthquake Model of Middle East (EMME) Project aimed to develop regional scale seismic hazard and risk models uniformly throughout a region extending from the Eastern Mediterranean in the west to the Himalayas in the east and from the Gulf of Oman in the south to the Greater Caucasus in the North; a region which has been continuously devastated by large earthquakes throughout the history. The 2014 Seismic Hazard Model of Middle East (EMME-SHM14) was developed with the contribution of several institutions from ten countries. The present paper summarizes the efforts towards building a homogeneous seismic hazard model of the region and highlights some of the main results of this model. An important aim of the project was to transparently communicate the data and methods used and to obtain reproducible results. By doing so, the use of the model and results will be accessible by a wide community, further support the mitigation of seismic risks in the region and facilitate future improvements to the seismic hazard model. To this end all data, results and methods used are made available through the web-portal of the European Facilities for Earthquake Hazard and Risk (www.efehr.org).  相似文献   

Trends in extreme rainfall in the state of New South Wales,Australia   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Evan Hajani  Elias Ishak 《水文科学杂志》2017,62(13):2160-2174

The trends in annual maximum rainfall (AMR) intensity data in New South Wales, Australia, were examined. Data from 60 stations were used covering three study periods, 1955–2010, 1965–2010 and 1978–2010. Mann-Kendall (MK) and Spearman’s rho (SR) tests were applied to assess trends at local stations. Pre-whitening (PW), trend-free pre-whitening (TFPW) and the variance correction (VC) tests were used to assess the effects of serial correlation on trend results. For regional trend analysis, the regional MK test was employed. The impacts of climatic variability modes on the observed trends in AMR intensity and seasonal maximum rainfall data were investigated. It was found that positive trends were more frequent than the negative ones. The PW, TFPW and VC tests resulted in a slight reduction in the count of stations exhibiting significant positive trends. The number of stations exhibiting significant trends decreased when the impact of climate variability modes was considered.  相似文献   

The environment of Upper Palaeolithic (Magdalenian and Azilian) hunters at Hauterive‐Champréveyres,Neuchâtel,Switzerland, interpreted from coleopteran remains     

G. Russell Coope  Scott A. Elias 《第四纪科学杂志》2000,15(2):157-175

An excavation primarily intended to investigate the Bronze Age deposits at Hautrive‐Champréveyres, Neuchâtel, Switzerland, encountered beneath the Bronze Age levels a sequence of Late‐glacial sediments that were deposited between about 13000 yr BP and 11800 yr BP. Within these deposits Upper Palaeolithic hearths, bones and flint implements were found in a context that left no doubt that they accumulated on the actual living floors. Two separate cultures were involved; an earlier Magdalenian one overlain by a rather later Azilian assemblage. Coleoptera from the associated organic silts and sands provide detailed ecological and climatic information about the time when these people lived in the area. Radiocarbon dates indicate that the Magdalenians lived in the area at about 13000 yr BP. The Coleoptera show that the mean July temperature at this time was about 9°C and mean temperature of the coldest month was about −25°C. The landscape was bare of trees with an open patchy vegetation. Shortly after the area was abandoned by the Magdalenian hunters, the climate became suddenly warmer and mean July temperatures rose abruptly to at least 16°C and winter temperatures rose to levels not much different from those of the present day. There is evidence that at this time, intense slope instability and mud flows may have rendered the locality unsuitable for human occupation. About seven centuries after the episode of sudden climatic warming, namely at about 12300 yr BP, palaeolithic Azilian hunters occupied the area at a time when the climate was thoroughly temperate and the landscape was clothed in birch and willow woodland. This was gradually replaced by pine forest at the top of the sequence and Late‐glacial deposition ceased by about 11800 yr BP. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Deducing the Lateral Growth of Anticlines using Drainage Analysis and Geomorphological Features     

Sissakian  V. K.  Elias  Z.  Al-Ansari  N. 《Geotectonics》2019,53(1):140-154

Geotectonics - The Low Folded Zone in Iraq is an active tectonic area witnessing different evidences for Neotectonic activities, among them are the lateral growth of Jambour, Pulkhana, and Qumar...  相似文献   

Lithostratigraphic and structural controls of ‘tsavorite’ deposits at Lemshuku,Merelani area,Tanzania     

Julien Feneyrol  Gaston Giuliani  Daniel Ohnenstetter  Elisabeth Le Goff  Elias P.J. Malisa  Mark Saul  Eric Saul  John Saul  Vincent Pardieu 《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2010,342(10):778-785

The first study of the Lemshuku ‘tsavorite’ mining district is presented. From bottom to top, the lithostratigraphic column corresponds to a metasedimentary sequence composed of quartzite, fine-grained graphitic gneiss, kyanite-graphite gneiss, biotite-almandine gneiss, metasomatized graphitic gneiss and dolomitic marble. ‘Tsavorite’ occurs in quartz veins and rarely as nodular concretions. Two factors control mineralization: (1) lithostratigraphy, with ‘tsavorite’ in association with pyrite and graphite confined to quartz veins within the metasomatized graphitic gneiss; and (2) structure, with the mineralized veins characteristically controlled by tight isoclinal folds associated with shearing.  相似文献   

Cluster analysis applied to the spatial and temporal variability of monthly rainfall in Mato Grosso do Sul State,Brazil     

Paulo Eduardo Teodoro  José Francisco de Oliveira-Júnior  Elias Rodrigues da Cunha  Caio Cezar Guedes Correa  Francisco Eduardo Torres  Vitor Matheus Bacani  Givanildo Gois  Larissa Pereira Ribeiro 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2016,128(2):197-209

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Fen ecosystem responses to water‐level fluctuations during the early and middle Holocene in central Europe: a case study from Wilczków,Poland          下载免费PDF全文

Mateusz Płóciennik  Andrzej Kruk  Jacek Forysiak  Dominik Pawłowski  Kamila Mianowicz  Scott Elias  Ryszard K. Borówka  Marek Kloss  Milena Obremska  Marek Krąpiec  Piotr Kittel  Sławomir Żurek 《Boreas: An International Journal of Quaternary Research》2015,44(4):721-740

This paper presents a palaeoenvironmental reconstruction of the Wilczków fen (central Poland). The fen developed in an inactive valley at the onset of the Holocene (~11 ka BP) and peat accumulation lasted until 5.7 ka BP. Multi‐proxy reconstructions were made on the basis of palaeobotanical, cladoceran, chironomid, beetle and geochemical analyses. A Kohonen self‐organizing map (SOM, unsupervised artificial neural network) of the biotic sequence distinguished four stages of fen history. Stage X₁ (11.0–10.7 ka BP) was relatively wet and cool. Organic matter started to accumulate but the habitat conditions remained unstable. Moss, sedge and fern communities then developed. Sedimentary changes reveal an intensive groundwater supply at that time. Numerous and diverse chironomid and cladoceran subfossils indicate nearly permanent aquatic conditions. During stage Y₁ (10.6–9.2 ka BP) conditions were dry and the upper peat layer desiccated. Cladocera nearly disappeared whereas chironomids were represented by semi‐terrestrial and predatory (Tanypodinae) species. Conditions started to be more reducing. All the remaining samples belonged to the interweaving stages X₂ and Y₂. Stage Y₂ (mostly 9.1–7.3 and 6.0–5.7 ka BP) was also dry but humidity increased towards the top. Oxidizing conditions occurred and the pH became more alkaline, favouring Cladium mariscus. The basin received mostly allochthonous matter input at that time. Stage X₂ (mostly 6.8–6.1 ka BP) was humid and warm. The groundwater supply remained low but there was an increase in precipitation, changing local conditions to ombrotrophic. Species‐rich chironomid and cladoceran communities were associated with temporary pools. Finally, conditions returned to those characteristic of stage Y₂. The presented reconstruction documents long‐term abiotic and biotic changes determined by water supply, including groundwater outflow, which have rarely been detected at a multi‐proxy scale. We show that inactivated valley fens are sensitive to climate‐driven hydrological fluctuations. Kohonen neural networks appear to be a promising method for analysing variability in multi‐proxy data.  相似文献   

Isotopic fingerprints of Milankovitch cycles in Pennsylvanian carbonate platform‐top deposits: the Valdorria record,Northern Spain          下载免费PDF全文

Valentin Chesnel  Óscar Merino‐Tomé  Luis Pedro Fernández  Elisa Villa  Elias Samankassou 《地学学报》2016,28(5):364-373

Sedimentary cyclic sequences deposited during the Late Palaeozoic Ice Age are widespread. Glacio‐eustatic control of the cyclic patterns is commonly accepted, and the durations of the cyclothems generally match the short‐ and long‐eccentricity Milankovitch orbital parameters. Nevertheless, geochemical fingerprints of orbital parameters are poorly documented in deep‐time sedimentary records. Here, we report on well‐exposed Bashkirian cyclothems of c. 123 ka and c. 400 ka durations from the Valdorria platform. The shorter‐term cyclothems can be grouped into longer‐term composite sequences that are consistent with generally accepted durations of c. 125 ka and c. 400 ka for Milankovitch eccentricity cycles. The stratigraphic pattern is mirrored by the isotope geochemical signals, which show distinct recurring trends. These trends are confirmed by statistical tests. Whereas intrinsic factors and/or subaerial exposure related to sea‐level lowstands might have truncated cycle patterns in tectonically stable basins, rapid subsidence of the Valdorria platform's foreland basin appears to have contributed to a faithful recording of cyclothems of different orders. The patterns and biostratigraphic constraint revealed in this study demonstrate the power of orbital forcing in imprinting sedimentary and geochemical signals in the rock record.  相似文献   

Land use change scenarios and associated groundwater impacts in a protected peri-urban area   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Elias Dimitriou  Elias Moussoulis 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2011,64(2):471-482

Land use changes in peri-urban areas are usually associated with significant impacts on groundwater resources due to alteration of the recharge regime as well as through the establishment of pollution sources. Quantifying the aforementioned impacts and assessing the vulnerability of the groundwater resources is an important step for the better management and protection of the aquifers. In the present study, a physically based, distributed hydrologic model has been used to identify the impacts from specific land use change scenarios in the protected area of Loutraki catchment. A vulnerability assessment method has been also implemented to provide a decision support tool to the land planning authorities and also hydrologic mitigation measures for the sustainable development of the area have been proposed. The hydrologic impacts of the land use scenarios include a 5% reduction in the annual recharge of the study aquifer for scenario 1 (doubling of the current urban areas) and 7% decrease for scenario 2 (tripling of the current urban areas). Nevertheless, these impacts can be minimised if small-scale artificial recharge infrastructure is developed and the land planning measures suggested through the vulnerability and recharge maps will be followed.  相似文献   

The Waqf as Suwwan crater,Eastern Desert of Jordan: aspects of the deep structure of an oblique impact from reflection seismic and gravity data     

Till Heinrichs  Elias Salameh  Hani Khouri 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2014,103(1):233-252

The deeply eroded Waqf as Suwwan ring structure was recently discovered to be a large impact, the first identified in the near east. Large-scale reflection seismic structure shows the impact situated high on the northeastern flank of the Jordan Uplift sloping into Wadi Sirhan Basin. If exhumation is linked to the Arabia–Eurasia collision, a likely time window for the impact event may be latest Eocene to Late Oligocene. Impact into a shallow sea seems an optional scenario. Old reflection seismic lines offer limited insight into the deep structure of the rim and part of the central uplift of the complex crater. An important structural clue is provided by a well-resolved seismic horizon of a yet tentative correlation with a Paleozoic black shale. The central gravity high is compatible with a mass surplus by the uplift of denser Paleozoic basement below the central uplift. The gravity model further indicates a ring of dense Paleozoic sediments rising from below into the ring syncline. Seismics show presumably radial synclines in the central uplift which are interpreted by centripetal constrictional flow during crater collapse. Beneath the final crater’s outer boundary, a shallow-dip normal fault zone, subtle seismic structure in uncollapsed footwall segments reveal an asymmetry of strain. The asymmetry is attributed to the cratering flow by an oblique impact directed toward NE. The finding provides independent support to an earlier suggestion of impact obliquity based on vergency of folds exposed on the central uplift.  相似文献