Climate change and snow-cover duration in the Australian Alps   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

P. H. Whetton  M. R. Haylock  R. Galloway 《Climatic change》1996,32(4):447-479

This study uses a model of snow-cover duration, an observed climate data set for the Australian alpine area, and a set of regional climate-change scenarios to assess quantitatively how changes in climate may affect snow cover in the Australian Alps. To begin, a regional interannual climate data set of high spatial resolution is prepared for input to the snow model and the resulting simulated interannual and spatial variations in snow-cover duration are assessed and compared with observations. The model provides a reasonable simulation of the sensitivities of snow-cover duration to changes in temperature and precipitation in the Australian Alps, although its performance is poorer at sites highly marginal for snow cover. (In a separate comparison, the model also performs well for sites in the European Alps.) The input climate data are then modified in line with scenarios of regional climate change based on the results of five global climate models run in enhanced greenhouse experiments. The scenarios are for the years 2030 and 2070 and allow for uncertainty associated with projecting future emissions of greenhouse gases and with estimating the sensitivity of the global climate system to enhanced greenhouse forcing. Attention focuses on the climate changes most favourable (best-case scenario) and least favourable (worst-case scenario) for snow cover amongst the range of climate changes in the scenarios. Under the best case scenario for 2030, simulated average snow-cover duration and the frequency of years of more than 60 days cover decline at all sites considered. However, at the higher sites (e.g., more than 1700 m) the effect is not very marked. For the worst case scenario, a much more dramatic decline in snow conditions is simulated. At higher sites, simulated average snow cover duration roughly halves by 2030 and approaches zero by 2070. At lower sites (around 1400 m), near zero average values are simulated by 2030 (compared to durations of around 60 days for current climate).These simulated changes, ranging between the best and worst case, are likely to be indicative of how climate change will affect natural snow-cover duration in the Australian Alps. However, note that the model does not allow directly for changes in the frequency and intensity of snow-bearing circulation systems, nor do the climate-change scenarios allow possible changes in interannual variability (particularly that due to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation) and local topographical effects not resolved by global climate models. The simulated changes in snow cover are worthy of further consideration in terms of their implications for the ski industry and tourism, water resources and hydroelectric power, and land-use management and planning.68 Barada Crescent, Aranda ACT 2614, Australia.  相似文献   

One-dimensional checkerboards and blending heights     

J. R. Philip 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》1996,77(2):135-151

We analyze the checkerboard problem of many alternating surfaces with different properties, on scales up to (say) 3,000 m. Power-law representations of the vertical profiles of mean wind speed and eddy diffusivity lead to solutions in terms of Kelvin and trigonometric functions.These solutions are used to determine blending heights (_*), where deviations from the mean of concentration, or of vertical flux density, fall to some small fraction, , of their value at the surface. Values of _*are important for regional and larger-scale meteorological models. In smaller scale micrometeorological studies, they may serve also as the top levels of surface boundary layers.An important result for both theoretical and experimental contexts is that deviations of flux persist with elevation much more strongly than those of concentration, so that, in general, _* should be based on flux rather than concentration. Representative values of _*, for = 0.05, are of order 5 and 30 m for surface pattern wavelengths of 10² and 10³ m, respectively. Values of _* are robust to changes in adopted power-law indices, and are independent of wind speed. Surface roughness has a mild but calculable effect.  相似文献   

Multiple outlier detection by evaluating redundancy contributions of observations   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

X. Ding  R. Coleman 《Journal of Geodesy》1996,70(8):489-498

When applying single outlier detection techniques, such as the Tau () test, to examine the residuals of observations for outliers, the number of detected observations in any iteration of adjustment is most often more numerous than the actual number of true outliers. A new technique is proposed which estimates the number of outliers in a network by evaluating the redundancy contributions of the detected observations. In this way, a number of potential outliers can be identified and eliminated in each iteration of an adjustment. This leads to higher efficiency in data snooping of geodetic networks. The technique is illustrated with some numerical examples.  相似文献   

Megamaser galaxies     

R. A. Kandalian 《Astrophysics》1996,39(3):237-244

An analysis of a sample of OH megamaser galaxies is presented. It is shown that the dependence of L_OH on L_FIR (far infrared) is not quadratic, as previously assumed, but closer to linear. In megamaser galaxies, L_C (radio continuum) L_FIR1. Analysis of the data also shows that as the OH emission line width decreases, the absolute values of the pumping efficiency and maser amplification coefficient increase. The radio luminosity of the central component in these galaxies increases with a decrease in the ratio L_FIR/L_C, whereas the FIR luminosity remains constant. These results will, in all probability, force a reexamination of the questions of pumping and maser emission mechanisms in megamaser galaxies.Translated fromAstrofizika, Vol. 39, No. 3, pp. 417–429, July–September, 1996.  相似文献   

The Taconite Inlet Lakes Project: a systems approach to paleoclimatic reconstruction     

R. S. Bradley  M. J. Retelle  S. D. Ludlam  D. R. Hardy  B. Zolitschka  S. F. Lamoureux  M. S. V. Douglas 《Journal of Paleolimnology》1996,16(2):97-110

A comprehensive study of meteorological, hydrological, limnological and sedimentological conditions in the watersheds of density-stratified (meromictic) lakes around Taconite Inlet, Northern Ellesmere Island, N.W.T., Canada was carried out from 1990–1992. Lakes C1 and C2 contain seawater trapped by isostatic uplift as the former embayments became isolated from the sea. These lakes, and Lake C3, contain varved sediments which provide an annually resolvable paleoclimatic record. By studing the major systems influencing sedimentation in one of these lakes (Lake C2) a better understanding of the climatic controls on varve formation, and hence on the paleoclimatic signal in the varved sediment record, was obtained. The varves of Lake C2 provide a proxy record of summer temperature for the region.This is the first in a series of papers published in this issue on the Taconite Inlet Lakes Project. These papers were collected by Dr R. S. Bradley.  相似文献   

Emigration,return, immigration: a review and evaluation of Greece's postwar experience of international migration     

Fakiolas R  King R 《International journal of population geography : IJPG》1996,2(2):171-190

"This paper offers a review and evaluation of the Greek experience of international migration.... The analysis is based partly on available published data, and partly on qualitative appraisals. Three major international migration phases are analysed--emigration, return migration and immigration--and the main socio-economic and cultural effects of these migration trends are discussed. The paper pays particular attention to the recent mass immigration movements, noting their heterogeneity...and describing their impact on the Greek labour market. The article concludes with some comments on the difficulties of formulating a Greek migration policy in the light of the country's location, open borders and internationalized economy."  相似文献   

Imaging coronal emission lines under high sky-background conditions     

C. U. Keller  R. N. Smartt 《Solar physics》1996,166(2):311-315

We have obtained images in solar coronal emission lines under high sky-background conditions by making precise differential measurements between the coronal emission line and the near-by continuum, which is primarily due to scattered light from the solar disk. Chopping between the two wavelengths was performed at 100 kHz to avoid artifacts from fast-flying dust particles and other aerosols, and also from seeing effects. The differential signal was detected with a novel CCD camera that demodulates signals up to 100 kHz. These preliminary observations show coronal emission at the 0.2% level of the scattered-light background and pave the way to efficient and precise imaging of coronal emission features under less than ideal coronal-sky conditions.Operated by the Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy, Inc. (AURA) under cooperative agreement with the National Science Foundation.  相似文献   

The effects of solar and ionospheric parameters on seasonal variation of 6300 Å line emission at Calcutta     

S. K. Midya  R. Chattopadhyay 《Earth, Moon, and Planets》1996,74(2):123-129

The purpose of this paper is to find correlation between OI 6300 Å line intensity with solar and ionospheric parameters. A critical study have been made and the following important results are obtained:

(i)	Solar flare index plays more important role for the emissions of 6300 Å line than other solar parameters.
(ii)	Intensity of 6300 Å line increases linearly with the increase of solar flare index.
(iii)	Virtual height plays more important role than critical frequency for the emission of 6300 Å line-intensity.
(iv)	Possible explanation of this type of variation is also presented.

  相似文献   

Sediment oxygen profiles in a super-oxygenated antarctic lake     

Wharton RA  Meyer MA  McKay CP  Mancinelli RL  Simmons GM 《Limnology and oceanography》1994,39(4):839-853

Perennially ice-covered lakes are found in the McMurdo Dry Valleys of southern Victoria Land, Antarctica. In contrast to temperate lakes that have diurnal photic periods, antarctic (and arctic) lakes have a yearly photic period. An unusual feature of the antarctic lakes is the occurrence of O2 at supersaturated levels in certain portions of the water column. Here we report the first sediment O2 profiles obtained using a microelectrode from a perennially ice-covered antarctic lake. Sediment cores collected in January and October 1987 from Lake Hoare in Taylor Valley show oxygenation down to 15, and in some cases, 25 cm. The oxygenation of sediments several centimeters below the sediment-water interface is atypical for lake sediments and may be characteristic of perennially ice-covered lakes. There is a significant difference between the observed January and October sediment O2 profiles. Several explanations may account for the difference, including seasonality. A time-dependent model is presented which tests the feasibility of a seasonal cycle resulting from the long photoperiod and benthic primary production in sediments overlain by a highly oxygenated water column.  相似文献   

Energy balance of simple elastodynamic sources     

Václav Vavryčuk 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1994,143(4):563-586

Complete relations are derived for energy and energy flux of elastic waves generated by an isotropic and double-couple source in a perfectly elastic, homogeneous, isotropic, and unbounded medium. In the energy balance of elastodynamic sources near-field waves play an essential role, transforming static energy into wave energy, andvice versa. For explosive and dislocation sources, the sources surface radiates a positive wave energy that is partially distributed to the medium transforming into static energy. For implosive and antidislocation sources, the source surface generates elastic waves, but it does not necessarily imply that it also radiates a positive wave energy. The energy transported by waves can originate in gradual transformation of the static-to-wave energy during propagation of waves through a stressed medium.On leave from Geophysical Institute, Czech Academy of Sciences, Boní II/1401, 41 31, Praha 4 Czech Republic  相似文献