Autumn atmospheric response to the 2007 low Arctic sea ice extent in coupled ocean–atmosphere hindcasts     

Yvan J. Orsolini  Retish Senan  Rasmus E. Benestad  Arne Melsom 《Climate Dynamics》2012,38(11-12):2437-2448

The autumn and early winter atmospheric response to the record-low Arctic sea ice extent at the end of summer 2007 is examined in ensemble hindcasts with prescribed sea ice extent, made with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts state-of-the-art coupled ocean–atmosphere seasonal forecast model. Robust, warm anomalies over the Pacific and Siberian sectors of the Arctic, as high as 10°C at the surface, are found in October and November. A regime change occurs by December, characterized by weaker temperatures anomalies extending through the troposphere. Geopotential anomalies extend from the surface up to the stratosphere, associated to deeper Aleutian and Icelandic Lows. While the upper-level jet is weakened and shifted southward over the continents, it is intensified over both oceanic sectors, especially over the Pacific Ocean. On the American and Eurasian continents, intensified surface Highs are associated with anomalous advection of cold (warm) polar air on their eastern (western) sides, bringing cooler temperatures along the Pacific coast of Asia and Northeastern North America. Transient eddy activity is reduced over Eurasia, intensified over the entrance and exit regions of the Pacific and Atlantic storm tracks, in broad qualitative agreement with the upper-level wind anomalies. Potential predictability calculations indicate a strong influence of sea ice upon surface temperatures over the Arctic in autumn, but also along the Pacific coast of Asia in December. When the observed sea ice extent from 2007 is prescribed throughout the autumn, a higher correlation of surface temperatures with meteorological re-analyses is found at high latitudes from October until mid-November. This further emphasises the relevance of sea ice for seasonal forecasting in the Arctic region, in the autumn.  相似文献   

Computation of sea level variations during December 1975 and 1 to 17 September 1977 using numerical models of the Baltic Sea     

Sirpa Häkkinen 《Ocean Dynamics》1980,33(4):158-175

  相似文献   

A case study of airborne and satellite remote sensing of a spring bloom event in the Gulf of Finland     

Sampsa Koponen  Jenni Attila  Jouni Pulliainen  Kari Kallio  Timo Pyhälahti  Antti Lindfors  Kai Rasmus  Martti Hallikainen 《Continental Shelf Research》2007

The concentrations of chlorophyll-a (chl-a), total suspended solids (TSS) and the absorption coefficient of colored dissolved organic matter (a_CDOM(400)) are estimated in Case II waters using medium resolution imaging spectrometer (MERIS) satellite (full resolution [FR] level 1b, 300 m resolution) and AISA airborne spectrometer data acquired during a spring bloom in the Gulf of Finland, Baltic Sea on April 27, 2004. The accuracy of the estimation is analyzed using empirical band-ratio algorithms together with in situ observations that include water samples analyzed in a laboratory (variation ranges: 22–130 μg/l, 2.9–20 mg/l, and 1.29–2.61 m⁻¹ for chl-a, TSS and a_CDOM(400), respectively). Additional in situ estimates (transects) on these characteristics are available through absorption and scattering coefficients measured with an ac-9 absorption and attenuation meter installed in a flow-through system. The retrieval accuracy (R²) of all three water quality characteristics with MERIS data is close to or above 0.9, while the RMSE is 7.8 μg/l (22%), 0.74 mg/l (16%) and 0.08 m⁻¹ (5%), for chl-a, TSS and a_CDOM(400), respectively. The validity of the chl-a algorithm is tested using nine additional data points. The BIAS-error for these points is 5.2 μg/l and the RMSE is 10.6 μg/l. The effects of changes in the atmospheric characteristics on band-ratio algorithms in cases where no concurrent in situ reference data are available are analyzed using the MODerate spectral resolution atmospheric TRANSmittance algorithm and computer model (MODTRAN). The additional error due to these changes is estimated to be below 20% for the applied ratio algorithms. The water quality data available in the level 2 MERIS-product distributed by the European Space Agency did not include valid results for the date investigated here.  相似文献   

TEMAS: fleet-based bio-economic simulation software to evaluate management strategies accounting for fleet behaviour   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Ulrich  Clara; Andersen  Bo Solgaard; Sparre  Per J.; Nielsen  J. Rasmus 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》2007,64(4):647-651

  相似文献   

Non-predation natural mortality of Norway pout (Trisopterus esmarkii) in the North Sea     

Sparholt  Henrik; Larsen  Lena I.; Nielsen  J. Rasmus 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》2002,59(6):1276-1284

  相似文献   

A lateral model parameter correlation procedure for one-dimensional inverse modelling     

Niels B. Christensen  Rasmus J. Tølbøll 《Geophysical Prospecting》2009,57(5):919-929

We present a new, fast and versatile method, the lateral parameter correlation method, of invoking lateral smoothness in model sections of one-dimensional (1D) models. Modern, continuous electrical and electromagnetic methods are capable of recording very large data sets and except for a few cases, standard inversion methodology still relies on 1D models. In environments where the lateral rate of change of resistivity is small, 1D inversion can be justified but model sections of concatenated 1D models do not necessarily display the expected lateral smoothness.
The lateral parameter correlation method has three steps. First, all sounding data are inverted individually. Next, a laterally smooth version of each model parameter, one at a time, is found by solving a simple constrained inversion problem. Identity is postulated between the uncorrelated and correlated parameters and the equations are solved including a model covariance matrix. As a last step, all sounding data are inverted again to produce models that better fit the data, now subject to constraints by including the correlated parameter values as a priori values. Because the method separates the inversion from the correlation it is much faster than methods where the inversion and correlation are solved simultaneously, typically with a factor of 200–500.
Theoretical examples show that the method produces laterally smooth model sections where the main influence comes from the well-determined parameters in such a way that problems with equivalence and poor resolution are alleviated. A field example is presented, demonstrating the improved resolution obtained with the lateral parameter correlation method. The method is very flexible and is capable of coupling models from inversion of different data types and information from boreholes.  相似文献   

Assessment of climate change and associated impact on selected sectors in Poland     

Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz  Mikołaj Piniewski  Abdelkader Mezghani  Tomasz Okruszko  Iwona Pińskwar  Ignacy Kardel  Øystein Hov  Mateusz Szcześniak  Małgorzata Szwed  Rasmus E. Benestad  Paweł Marcinkowski  Dariusz Graczyk  Andreas Dobler  Eirik J. Førland  Joanna O’Keefe  Adam Choryński  Kajsa M. Parding  Jan Erik Haugen 《Acta Geophysica》2018,66(6):1509-1523

The present paper offers a brief assessment of climate change and associated impact in Poland, based on selected results of the Polish–Norwegian CHASE-PL project. Impacts are examined in selected sectors, such as water resources, natural hazard risk reduction, environment, agriculture and health. Results of change detection in long time series of observed climate and climate impact variables in Poland are presented. Also, projections of climate variability and change are provided for time horizons of 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 for two emission scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in comparison with control period, 1971–2000. Based on climate projections, examination of future impacts on sectors is also carried out. Selected uncertainty issues relevant to observations, understanding and projections are tackled as well.  相似文献   

Estimation of a non-stationary prior covariance from seismic data     

Rasmus Bødker Madsen  Thomas Mejer Hansen  Henning Omre 《Geophysical Prospecting》2020,68(2):393-410

Non-stationarity in statistical properties of the subsurface is often ignored. In a classical linear Bayesian inversion setting of seismic data, the prior distribution of physical parameters is often assumed to be stationary. Here we propose a new method of handling non-stationarity in the variance of physical parameters in seismic data. We propose to infer the model variance prior to inversion using maximum likelihood estimators in a sliding window approach. A traditional, and a localized shrinkage estimator is defined for inferring the prior model variance. The estimators are assessed in a synthetic base case with heterogeneous variance of the acoustic impedance in a zero-offset seismic cross section. Subsequently, this data is inverted for acoustic impedance using a non-stationary model set up with the inferred variances. Results indicate that prediction as well as posterior resolution is greatly improved using the non-stationary model compared with a common prior model with stationary variance. The localized shrinkage predictor is shown to be slightly more robust than the traditional estimator in terms of amplitude differences in the variance of acoustic impedance and size of local neighbourhood. Finally, we apply the methodology to a real data set from the North Sea basin. Inversion results show a more realistic posterior model than using a conventional approach with stationary variance.  相似文献   

Limits on the X-ray and optical luminosity of the progenitor of the Type Ia supernova 2007sr     

Gijs Nelemans  Rasmus Voss  Gijs Roelofs  Cees Bassa 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2008,388(2):487-494

We present Hubble Space Telescope ( HST )/Wide Field Planetary Camera 2 (WFPC2), Galaxy Evolution Explorer ( GALEX ) and Chandra observations of the position of the Type Ia supernova 2007sr in the Antennae galaxy, taken before the explosion. No source is found in any of the observations, allowing us to put interesting constraints on the progenitor luminosity. In total there is about 450 ks of Chandra data, spread over seven different observations. Limiting magnitudes of far-ultraviolet (FUV) (23.7 AB mag), near-ultraviolet (NUV) (23.8 AB mag), F555W (26.5 Vega mag) and F814W (24.5–25 Vega mag) are derived. The distance to the Antennae galaxy is surprisingly poorly known, with almost a factor of 2 difference between the latest distance based on the tip of the red giant branch (13.3 Mpc) and the distance derived from the 2007sr light curve (25 Mpc). Using these distances we derive limits on absolute optical and UV magnitudes of any progenitor but these are still above the brightest (symbiotic) proposed progenitors. From the Chandra data a 3σ upper limit to the X-ray luminosity of  0.5–8.0 × 10³⁷ erg s⁻¹  in the 0.3–1 keV range is found. This is below the X-ray luminosity of the potential progenitor of the Type Ia supernova 2007on that we recently discovered and for which we report a corrected X-ray luminosity. If that progenitor is confirmed it suggests the two supernovae have different progenitors. The X-ray limit is comparable to the brightest supersoft X-ray sources in the Galaxy, the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) and the Small Magellanic Cloud (SMC) and significantly below the luminosities of the brightest supersoft and quasi-soft X-ray sources found in nearby galaxies, ruling out such sources as progenitors of this Type Ia supernova.  相似文献   

Technology transfer in the clean development mechanism: Insights from wind power     

Adrian Lema  Rasmus Lema 《Global Environmental Change》2013,23(1):301-313

International technology transfer is a key element in efforts to ensure low carbon growth in developing countries. A growing body of literature has sought to assess the extent of technology transfer in the clean development mechanism (CDM). In this paper we use the case of wind power CDM to expand the focus to how technology transfer occurs. We seek insights from the technology and CDM literatures to develop a framework with multiple technology transfer mechanisms. We then show empirically that technology transfer in CDM wind projects occurs through a greater variety of mechanism than is commonly assumed. The evidence suggests that the strengthening of host country capabilities changes the nature of technology transfer. The cases of China and India indicate that diversity in transfer mechanisms is an effect of the pre-existing industrial and technological capabilities. We show that CDM projects in China and India tend to utilise transfer mechanisms opened up prior to and independent of CDM projects, not the other way around. Our findings suggest that research and policy should pay more careful attention to the relationship between international low carbon technology transfer mechanisms and local technological capabilities.  相似文献