An Estimate of Microwave low-Brightness-Temperature Regions' Heights Obtained Measuring Their Rotation Velocity     

Brajša  R.  Ruždjak  V.  Vršnak  B.  Wöhl  H.  Pohjolainen  S.  Urpo  S. 《Solar physics》1999,184(2):281-296

Daily full-disk solar maps obtained at 37 GHz in the years 1979, 1980, 1981, 1982, 1987, 1988, 1989, 1990, and 1991 are analysed and compared with full-disk solar maps in H. A search for a difference in the measured angular rotation velocity for two classes of microwave low-brightness-temperature regions (LTRs), associated and not associated with H filaments, is performed. Procedures with and without statistical weights, assigned to angular rotation velocities according to the tracing time, are applied and the statistical significance of the results is discussed. A higher angular rotation velocity is measured for LTRs associated with H filaments than for the not-associated ones. This angular velocity difference is interpreted as a consequence of a height difference between these two types of LTR tracers. Changes of the solar differential rotation velocity during the activity cycle measured using LTRs as tracers are explained by the measured cycle-dependence of the association rate between LTRs and H filaments. Similarly, the north–south asymmetry in the solar rotation velocity measured tracing LTRs is explained by the measured north–south asymmetry in the association rate between LTRs and H filaments. The rotation velocity of LTRs and H filaments is on the average more rigid in comparison with sunspots.  相似文献   

A two-stage time series model for monthly hydrological projections under climate change in the Lim River basin (southeast Europe)     

Milan Stojković  Jasna Plavšić  Stevan Prohaska  Dragutin Pavlović  Jovan Despotović 《水文科学杂志》2020,65(3):387-400

ABSTRACT

Climate change projections of precipitation and temperature suggest that Serbia could be one of the most affected regions in southeastern Europe. To prepare adaptation measures, the impact of climate changes on water resources needs to be assessed. Pilot research is carried out for the Lim River basin, in southeastern Europe, to predict monthly flows under different climate scenarios. For estimation of future water availability, an alternative approach of developing a deterministic-stochastic time series model is chosen. The proposed two-stage time series model consists of several components: trend, long-term periodicity, seasonality and the stochastic component. The latter is based on a transfer function model with two input variables, precipitation and temperature, as climatic drivers. The Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency for the observed period 1950–2012 is 0.829. The model is applied for the long-term hydrological prediction under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) emissions scenarios for the future time frame 2013–2070.  相似文献   

Formation Of Coronal Mhd Shock Waves – I. The Basic Mechanism     

B. Vršnak  S. Lulić 《Solar physics》2000,196(1):157-180

The formation and evolution of a large amplitude MHD perturbation propagating perpendicular to the magnetic field in a perfectly conducting low plasma is studied. The perturbation is generated by an abrupt expansion of the source region. Explicit expressions for the time and the distance needed for the transformation of the perturbation's leading edge into a shock wave are derived. The results are applied to coronal conditions and the dynamic spectra of the radio emission excited by the shock are synthesized, reproducing metric and kilometric type II bursts. The features corresponding to the metric type II burst precursor and the moving type IV burst in the case of kilometric type II bursts are identified. A specific radio signature that is sometimes observed at the onset of a metric type II burst is found to appear immediately before the shock wave formation due to the associated growth of the magnetic field gradient. Time delays and starting frequencies of bursts' onsets are calculated and presented as a function of the impulsiveness of the source-region expansion, using different values of the ambient Alfvén velocity and various time profiles of the expansion velocity. The results are confronted with the observations of metric and kilometric type II solar radio bursts.  相似文献   

Seeding agent dispersion within convective cloud as simulated by a 3-D numerical model     

M. Ćurić  D. Janc  V. Vučković 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2006,92(3-4):205-216

Summary The three-dimensional mesoscale cloud-resolving model ARPS (Advanced Regional Prediction System) was used to investigate the dispersal of an inert seeding agent within a cumulonimbus (Cb) cloud developing from two different initial states. In this paper, we stress the influence vortices in the cloud have on seeding agent dispersion. If a strong directional ambient wind shear is present in the lowest layer, a vortex pair formed at the flanks of the simulated cloud. Following the velocity field, a considerable amount of the injected seeding agent would be thrown out to the rear of the cloud, where both updrafts associated with vortices and downdrafts occurred. After a short time the agent was present only in the cloud periphery. If the Cb cloud developed under conditions where directional ambient wind shear did not exist, seeding agent dispersion would be quite different. In this case, almost all the seeding agent was transported into the main updraft, while the residence time of the agent within the cloud was longer due to the weaker cloud dynamics. Therefore, we must pay attention to whether or not the cloud contains vortices when we make the decision where to seed. This is necessary in order to minimize the loss of seeding material.  相似文献   

Comparison of three mathematical models for the estimation of 10-day drain discharge     

K. Pandžić  I. Šimunić  F. Tomić  S. Husnjak  T. Likso  D. Petošić 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2006,85(1-2):107-115

Summary This paper presents an the evaluation of three mathematical models for the estimation of 10-day drain discharge using weather, pedological and phenological parameters. One model uses modified Palmer’s procedure for the calculation of water balance components and the second two use empirical multiple linear regression. The models have been applied to data of an amelioration experimental field in central Croatia (south-western part of the Pannonian Lowland), where a set of average 10-day air temperature and relative humidity data, average wind speed, cumulative precipitation and drain discharge amounts, insolation and soil moisture data and vegetation indices have been collected. The experiment has been performed during the period 1990–1992. The models have been tested by comparing estimated and observed 10-day drain discharge amounts. All models mainly give acceptable cumulative results although their accuracy depends on the season.  相似文献   

Utilisation of the image analysis method for the detection of the morphological anisotropy of calcite grains in marble     

Boguslaw Obara  Alena Kožušníková 《Computational Geosciences》2007,11(4):275-281

This paper presents the development and utilisation of an automated image processing algorithm for detection and analysis of grains. Using optical polarising microscopy, a set of colored images are collected from an area on a thin section. A filtering operation, using rotation of a morphological alternating sequence filter (based on a structuring element), is used to remove twinning features within individual grains. Filtering is followed by the watershed segmentation technique to determine grain boundaries. The method is used for the identification of calcite grains in marble and the subsequent analysis of morphological anisotropy.  相似文献   

Spectral analysis of the “Koshava” wind     

M. Unkašević  I. Tošić  M. Obradović 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2007,89(3-4):239-244

Summary “Koshava” is a gusty wind of changeable intensity, blowing from a south-easterly direction, over Serbia, Romania and Bulgaria. It is caused by the interaction between the synoptic circulation and the orography of the Carpathian and the Balkan mountains. This paper analyzes wind data measured at the Belgrade-Observatory during the longest period of consecutive days of “Koshava” which occurred from 14 January to 13 February 1972. Mean hourly wind speed data has been examined using spectral analysis. The power spectra are calculated using autocorrelation spectral analysis, the multi-taper method and wavelet transform. The maximum of which is about 122 h (5 days) corresponds to the time span of synoptic processes.  相似文献   

A Method to Determine the Solar Synodic Rotation Rate and the Height of Tracers     

Roša  D.  Vršnak  B.  Božić  H.  Brajša  R.  Ruždjak  V.  Schroll  A.  Wöhl  H. 《Solar physics》1998,179(2):237-252

The dependence of the measured apparent synodic solar rotation rate on the height of the chosen tracer is studied. A significant error occurs if the rotation rate is determined by tracing the apparent position of an object above the photospheric level projected on the solar disc. The centre-to-limb variation of this error can be used to determine simultaneously the height of the object and the true synodic rotation rate. The apparent (projected) heliographic coordinates are presented as a function of the height of the traced object and the coordinates of its footpoint. The relations obtained provide an explicit expression for the apparent rotation rate as a function of the observed heliographic coordinates of the tracer, enabling an analytic least-squares fit expression to determine simultaneously the real synodic rotation rate and the height of the tracer.  相似文献   

Seismic Zoning of Croatia     

Markušić  Snježana  Herak  Marijan 《Natural Hazards》1998,18(3):269-285

The territory of Croatia and neighboring regions is divided into 17 seismic source zones, considering available seismological and geological data. On this basis, seismic hazard elements (seismicity rate, maximum magnitude, b-value, probabilities of exceedance and return periods for a predefined set of magnitudes) are computed using the maximum likelihood method appropriate for treating data-sets with variable completeness thresholds. The values of long term expected peak horizontal acceleration obtained by using a combination of the deterministic and the probabilistic procedure are the highest in the Dubrovnik zone, while the Zagreb zone has the highest earthquake hazard in the continental part of the country. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.  相似文献   

A Photometric Investigation of the Eclipsing System OO Aql     

G. Djurašević  S. Erkapić 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1998,262(3):305-313

The paper is concerning with the light curve analysis of an active binary system of OO Aql. Basic orbital and physical parameters of this system were estimated by analysing photometric observations by Lafta and Grainger (1985) and Essam et al. (1992). Both groups of observations gave quite different light curves with a conspicuous asymmetry arising from unequal height of successive maxima. A slightly changed programme by Djuraevi (1992a) was applied. The programme was based on the Roche model and it included an option of overcontact configuration and active (bright or dark) spotted regions on the system's components. An inverse-problem method by Djuraevi (1992b) was used to estimate the parameters of the system and active regions. The light-curve analysis suggested a significant change in the system. For Lafta and Grainger's light curves our analysis showed the presence of a dark spotted area near the polar region of the primary component. This dark area covered about 22% of the primary's hemisphere. Essam et al.'s light curves had very complex shape. In this case the mechanism of the mass transfer and the exchange of the thermal energy between the components could produce a bright-spot (bs) area on the secondary, near the Lagrange equilibrium point L₁ around the neck region between the stars. To explain a sharp increase of the system's brightness in the B filter immediately after the secondary minimum, we had to introduce also a hot-spot (hs) area of a high temperature contrast on the secondary. With the increase of the brightness in the V-filter being of much lower intensity, this hot spot region could be taken as a local eruption. The behaviour of the B–V colour index with the orbital phase is in favour of this hypothesis also. The obtained results show that the light-curve changes are due to development and moving of active spot regions on the components.  相似文献