A verification framework for interannual-to-decadal predictions experiments   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

L. Goddard  A. Kumar  A. Solomon  D. Smith  G. Boer  P. Gonzalez  V. Kharin  W. Merryfield  C. Deser  S. J. Mason  B. P. Kirtman  R. Msadek  R. Sutton  E. Hawkins  T. Fricker  G. Hegerl  C. A. T. Ferro  D. B. Stephenson  G. A. Meehl  T. Stockdale  R. Burgman  A. M. Greene  Y. Kushnir  M. Newman  J. Carton  I. Fukumori  T. Delworth 《Climate Dynamics》2013,40(1-2):245-272

Decadal predictions have a high profile in the climate science community and beyond, yet very little is known about their skill. Nor is there any agreed protocol for estimating their skill. This paper proposes a sound and coordinated framework for verification of decadal hindcast experiments. The framework is illustrated for decadal hindcasts tailored to meet the requirements and specifications of CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5). The chosen metrics address key questions about the information content in initialized decadal hindcasts. These questions are: (1) Do the initial conditions in the hindcasts lead to more accurate predictions of the climate, compared to un-initialized climate change projections? and (2) Is the prediction model’s ensemble spread an appropriate representation of forecast uncertainty on average? The first question is addressed through deterministic metrics that compare the initialized and uninitialized hindcasts. The second question is addressed through a probabilistic metric applied to the initialized hindcasts and comparing different ways to ascribe forecast uncertainty. Verification is advocated at smoothed regional scales that can illuminate broad areas of predictability, as well as at the grid scale, since many users of the decadal prediction experiments who feed the climate data into applications or decision models will use the data at grid scale, or downscale it to even higher resolution. An overall statement on skill of CMIP5 decadal hindcasts is not the aim of this paper. The results presented are only illustrative of the framework, which would enable such studies. However, broad conclusions that are beginning to emerge from the CMIP5 results include (1) Most predictability at the interannual-to-decadal scale, relative to climatological averages, comes from external forcing, particularly for temperature; (2) though moderate, additional skill is added by the initial conditions over what is imparted by external forcing alone; however, the impact of initialization may result in overall worse predictions in some regions than provided by uninitialized climate change projections; (3) limited hindcast records and the dearth of climate-quality observational data impede our ability to quantify expected skill as well as model biases; and (4) as is common to seasonal-to-interannual model predictions, the spread of the ensemble members is not necessarily a good representation of forecast uncertainty. The authors recommend that this framework be adopted to serve as a starting point to compare prediction quality across prediction systems. The framework can provide a baseline against which future improvements can be quantified. The framework also provides guidance on the use of these model predictions, which differ in fundamental ways from the climate change projections that much of the community has become familiar with, including adjustment of mean and conditional biases, and consideration of how to best approach forecast uncertainty.  相似文献   

On the Forces Driving Plate Tectonics: Inferences from Absolute Plate Velocities and Intraplate Stress   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Sean C. Solomon  Norman H. Sleep  Randall M. Richardson 《Geophysical Journal International》1975,42(2):769-801

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A numerical response of the middle atmosphere to the 11-year solar cycle     

Rolando R. Garcia  Susan Solomon  Raymond G. Roble  David W. Rusch 《Planetary and Space Science》1984,32(4):411-423

A two-dimensional numerical model with coupled photochemistry and dynamics has been used to investigate the response of the middle atmosphere (16–116 km) to changes in solar activity over the 11-year solar cycle. Model inputs that vary with solar cycle include solar radiation, cosmic ray and auroral ionization rates and the flux of NO_x at the model's upper boundary.In this study, the results of model runs for solar cycle minimum and maximum conditions are compared. In the stratosphere, using currently accepted estimates of changes in solar radiation at wavelengths longer than 180 nm, only small responses in ozone, temperature and zonal winds are obtained. On the other hand, changes at shorter wavelengths, and the effects of particle precipitation, lead to large variations in the abundances of trace species in the thermosphere and upper mesosphere. In particular, very large abundances of NO_x are produced above 90 km by auroral particle precipitation. Considerable amounts of NO_x are transported subsequently to the stratosphere by the global mean meridional circulation. It is shown that this excess NO_x can lead to significant decreases in ozone concentrations at high latitudes and that it may explain observations of nitrate deposition in Antarctic snow.  相似文献   

Determination of the properties of Mercury's magnetic field by the MESSENGER mission     

Haje Korth  Brian J. Anderson  James A. Slavin  Sean C. Solomon 《Planetary and Space Science》2004,52(8):733-746

The MESSENGER mission to Mercury, to be launched in 2004, will provide an opportunity to characterize Mercury's internal magnetic field during an orbital phase lasting one Earth year. To test the ability to determine the planetary dipole and higher-order moments from measurements by the spacecraft's fluxgate magnetometer, we simulate the observations along the spacecraft trajectory and recover the internal field characteristics from the simulated observations. The magnetic field inside Mercury's magnetosphere is assumed to consist of an intrinsic multipole component and an external contribution due to magnetospheric current systems described by a modified Tsyganenko 96 model. Under the axis-centered-dipole approximation without correction for the external field the moment strength is overestimated by ∼4% for a simulated dipole moment of , and the error depends strongly on the magnitude of the simulated moment, rising as the moment decreases. Correcting for the external field contributions can reduce the error in the dipole term to a lower limit of ∼1-2% without a solar wind monitor. Dipole and quadrupole terms, although highly correlated, are then distinguishable at the level equivalent to an error in the position of an offset dipole of a few tens of kilometers. Knowledge of the external magnetic field is therefore the primary limiting factor in extracting reliable knowledge of the structure of Mercury's magnetic field from the MESSENGER observations.  相似文献   

Variation in tree mortality and regeneration affect forest carbon recovery following fuel treatments and wildfire in the Lake Tahoe Basin, California, USA     

Carlson CH  Dobrowski SZ  Safford HD 《Carbon balance and management》2012,7(1):7-17

Background

Forest fuel treatments have been proposed as tools to stabilize carbon stocks in fire-prone forests in the Western U.S.A. Although fuel treatments such as thinning and burning are known to immediately reduce forest carbon stocks, there are suggestions that these losses may be paid back over the long-term if treatments sufficiently reduce future wildfire severity, or prevent deforestation. Although fire severity and post-fire tree regeneration have been indicated as important influences on long-term carbon dynamics, it remains unclear how natural variability in these processes might affect the ability of fuel treatments to protect forest carbon resources. We surveyed a wildfire where fuel treatments were put in place before fire and estimated the short-term impact of treatment and wildfire on aboveground carbon stocks at our study site. We then used a common vegetation growth simulator in conjunction with sensitivity analysis techniques to assess how predicted timescales of carbon recovery after fire are sensitive to variation in rates of fire-related tree mortality, and post-fire tree regeneration.

Results

We found that fuel reduction treatments were successful at ameliorating fire severity at our study site by removing an estimated 36% of aboveground biomass. Treated and untreated stands stored similar amounts of carbon three years after wildfire, but differences in fire severity were such that untreated stands maintained only 7% of aboveground carbon as live trees, versus 51% in treated stands. Over the long-term, our simulations suggest that treated stands in our study area will recover baseline carbon storage 10?C35?years more quickly than untreated stands. Our sensitivity analysis found that rates of fire-related tree mortality strongly influence estimates of post-fire carbon recovery. Rates of regeneration were less influential on recovery timing, except when fire severity was high.

Conclusions

Our ability to predict the response of forest carbon resources to anthropogenic and natural disturbances requires models that incorporate uncertainty in processes important to long-term forest carbon dynamics. To the extent that fuel treatments are able to ameliorate tree mortality rates or prevent deforestation resulting from wildfire, our results suggest that treatments may be a viable strategy to stabilize existing forest carbon stocks.  相似文献   

The relative importance of tropical variability forced from the North Pacific through ocean pathways     

Amy Solomon  Sang-Ik Shin  Michael A. Alexander  Julian P. McCreary 《Climate Dynamics》2008,31(2-3):315-331

To what extent is tropical variability forced from the North Pacific through ocean pathways relative to locally generated variability and variability forced through the atmosphere? To address this question, in this study we use an anomaly-coupled model, consisting of a global, atmospheric general circulation model and a 4½-layer, reduced-gravity, Pacific-Ocean model. Three solutions are obtained; with coupling over the entire basin (CNT), with coupling confined to the tropics and wind stress and heat fluxes in the North and South Pacific specified by climatology (TP), and with coupling confined to the Tropics and wind stress and heat fluxes in the North Pacific specified by output from CNT (NPF). It is found that there are two distinct signals forced in the North Pacific that can impact the tropics through ocean pathways. These two signals are forced by wind stress and surface heat flux anomalies in the subtropical North Pacific. The first signal is relatively fast, impacts tropical variability less than a year after forcing, is triggered from November to March, and propagates as a first-mode baroclinic Rossby wave. The second signal is only triggered during springtime when buoyancy forcing can effectively generate higher-order baroclinic modes through subduction anomalies into the permanent thermocline, and it reaches the equator 4–5 years after forcing. The slow signal is found to initiate tropical variability more efficiently than the fast signal with one standard deviation in subtropical zonal wind stress forcing tropical SST anomalies centered on the equator at 135°W of approximately 0.5°C. Allowing extratropically forced tropical variability is found to shift primarily 2-year ENSO variability in a tropics-alone simulation to a more realistic range of 2–6 years.  相似文献   

XUV Photometer System (XPS): Improved Solar Irradiance Algorithm Using CHIANTI Spectral Models     

Thomas N. Woods  Phillip C. Chamberlin  W. K. Peterson  R. R. Meier  Phil G. Richards  Douglas J. Strickland  Gang Lu  Liying Qian  Stanley C. Solomon  B. A. Iijima  A. J. Mannucci  B. T. Tsurutani 《Solar physics》2008,250(2):235-267

Solar soft X-ray (XUV) radiation is highly variable on all time scales and strongly affects Earth’s ionosphere and upper atmosphere; consequently, the solar XUV irradiance is important for atmospheric studies and for space weather applications. Although there have been several recent measurements of the solar XUV irradiance, detailed understanding of the solar XUV irradiance, especially its variability during flares, has been hampered by the broad bands measured in the XUV range. In particular, the simple conversion of the XUV photometer signal into irradiance, in which a static solar spectrum is assumed, overestimates the flare variations by more than a factor of two as compared to the atmospheric response to the flares. To address this deficiency in the simple conversion, an improved algorithm using CHIANTI spectral models has been developed to process the XUV Photometer System (XPS) measurements with its broadband photometers. Model spectra representative of quiet Sun, active region, and flares are combined to match the signals from the XPS and produce spectra from 0.1 to 40 nm in 0.1-nm intervals for the XPS Level 4 data product. The two XPS instruments are aboard NASA’s Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) and Thermosphere, Ionosphere, Mesosphere, Energetics, and Dynamics (TIMED) satellites. In addition, the XPS responsivities have been updated for the latest XPS data processing version. The new XPS results are consistent with daily variations from the previous simple conversion technique used for XPS and are also consistent with spectral measurements made at wavelengths longer than 27 nm. Most importantly, the XPS flare variations are reduced by factors of 2 – 4 at wavelengths shorter than 14 nm and are more consistent, for the first time, with atmospheric response to solar flares. Along with the details of the new XPS algorithm, several comparisons to dayglow and photoelectron measurements and model results are also presented to help verify the accuracy of the new XUV irradiance spectra.  相似文献   

Mercury: Internal structure and thermal evolution     

Robert W. Siegfried  Sean C. Solomon 《Icarus》1974,23(2):192-205

Astronomical observations and cosmochemical calculations suggest that the planet Mercury may be composed of materials which condensed at relatively high temperatures in the primitive solar nebula and may have a basaltic crust similar to parts of the moon. These findings, plus the long standing inference that Mercury is much richer in metallic iron than the other terrestrial planets, provide important constraints which we apply to models of the thermal evolution and density structure of the planet. The thermal history calculations include explicitly the differing thermal properties of iron and silicates and account for core segregation, melting and differentiation of heat sources, and simulated convection during melting. If the U and Th abundances of Mercury are taken from the cosmochemical model of Lewis, then the planet would have fully differentiated a metal core from the silicate mantle for all likely initial temperature distributions and heat transfer properties. Density distributions for the planet are calculated from the mean density and estimates of the present-day temperature. For the fully differentiated model, the moment of inertia C/MR² is 0.325 (J₂=0.302×10^?6). For models with lower heat source abundances, the planet may not yet have differentiated. The density profiles for such models give C/MR²=0.394 (J₂=0.487×10^?6). These results should be useful for preliminary interpretation of the Mariner 10 measurements of Mercury's gravitational field.  相似文献   

The glacial succession on the North Norfolk Coast     

J.D. Solomon 《Proceedings of the Geologists' Association. Geologists' Association》1932,43(3):241-IN5

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Sounding rocket measurements of the solar soft X-ray irradiance   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Bailey  S.M.  Woods  T.N.  Canfield  L.R.  Korde  R.  Barth  C.A.  Solomon  S.C.  Rottman  G.J. 《Solar physics》1999,186(1-2):243-257

Measurements of the solar soft X-ray (XUV: 2 nm to 30 nm) irradiance were performed from a sounding rocket payload flown from White Sands Missile Range, New Mexico on 4 October 1993 and again on 3 November 1994. The soft X-ray instrumentation comprised of silicon photodiodes with thin films deposited directly onto their active areas. The deposited material and its thickness in conjunction with the sensitivity of an uncoated diode determine the passband and the sensitivity of these photometric devices. The measurements are interpreted in terms of appropriate SERF 1 (Hinteregger, Fukui, and Gilson, 1981) model solar spectra. It is found that the data are consistent with a solar spectrum that is on average approximately a factor of two times the model solar spectra. It is shown that the measured irradiances are in reasonable agreement with other experiments.  相似文献