Assessing future climatic changes of rainfall extremes at small spatio-temporal scales     

Ida Bülow Gregersen  Hjalte Jomo Danielsen Sørup  Henrik Madsen  Dan Rosbjerg  Peter Steen Mikkelsen  Karsten Arnbjerg-Nielsen 《Climatic change》2013,118(3-4):783-797

Climate change is expected to influence the occurrence and magnitude of rainfall extremes and hence the flood risks in cities. Major impacts of an increased pluvial flood risk are expected to occur at hourly and sub-hourly resolutions. This makes convective storms the dominant rainfall type in relation to urban flooding. The present study focuses on high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) skill in simulating sub-daily rainfall extremes. Temporal and spatial characteristics of output from three different RCM simulations with 25 km resolution are compared to point rainfall extremes estimated from observed data. The applied RCM data sets represent two different models and two different types of forcing. Temporal changes in observed extreme point rainfall are partly reproduced by the RCM RACMO when forced by ERA40 re-analysis data. Two ECHAM forced simulations show similar increases in the occurrence of rainfall extremes of over a 150-year period, but significantly different changes in the magnitudes. The physical processes behind convective rainfall extremes generate a distinctive spatial inter-site correlation structure for extreme events. All analysed RCM rainfall extremes, however, show a clear deviation from this correlation structure for sub-daily rainfalls, partly because RCM output represents areal rainfall intensities and partly due to well-known inadequacies in the convective parameterization of RCMs. The results highlight the problem urban designers are facing when using RCM output. The paper takes the first step towards a methodology by which RCM performance and other downscaling methods can be assessed in relation to the simulation of short-duration rainfall extremes.  相似文献   

Decoupling the host and nuclear spectra of type I AGNs using integral field spectroscopy: A test on 3C 120     

Sebastin F. Snchez  Begoa García-Lorenzo  Knud Jahnke  Evencio Mediavilla  Jos Ignacio Gonzlez-Serrano  Lise Christensen  Lutz Wisotzki 《New Astronomy Reviews》2006,49(10-12):501

We have developed a new technique to decouple the spectra of the host and the nucleus of type I AGNs using integral field spectroscopy data. The technique is a simple extension of methods widely tested in 2D imaging. We present here the results from applying the technique to data taken with INTEGRAL at the 4.2 m William Herschel Telescope on the Seyfert 1 radio-galaxy 3C 120. We obtained, for the first time, a clean spectrum of the host galaxy, without contamination from the nuclear source.  相似文献   

Surficial properties in Melas Chasma, Mars, from Mars Odyssey THEMIS data     

Shannon M Pelkey  Bruce M Jakosky  Philip R Christensen 《Icarus》2003,165(1):68-89

We examine the nature of the surface layer in a small area of the Melas Chasma region as determined from high-resolution thermal and visible Mars Odyssey Thermal Emission Imaging System (THEMIS) data as well as how our conclusions compare to past analyses. At THEMIS resolution, the thermal structure is dominated by local control and all significant thermal variations can be linked to morphology. Thus, THEMIS provides us with detailed images that contain thermophysical information as well, allowing us to create a surficial geologic map intended to reflect the surface structure of the region. Eight units have been defined: (i) blanketed plateaus with thermally distinct craters and fractures, (ii) blanketed canyon walls with rocky edges, (iii) indurated and/or rocky canyon wall slide material partially covered by aeolian material, (iv) an anomalous wall region with fluvial-like depressions partially filled with particulate material, (v) indurated and/or rocky ridged and non-ridged canyon floor landslide material mingled with aeolian material, (vi) sand sheets, (vii) indurated and/or rocky rounded blocks intermingled with small areas of aeolian material, and (viii) transverse dunes. The THEMIS thermal data support conclusions from previous studies but also reveal much more structure than was seen in the past. We have found that all significant thermal variations in this region can be linked to morphology but all morphological variations cannot be linked to significant thermal variations. THEMIS visible images provide an intermediate resolution that bridges the gap between MOC and Viking and allow for a more meaningful interpretation of the geologic context of a region. Surfaces indicate that landslides were an important geologic process long ago, shaping the canyon walls and floor, while aeolian processes have subsequently altered the surface layer in many locations and may still be active.  相似文献   

Forced waves in the martian atmosphere from MGS TES nadir data     

D. Banfield  B.J. Conrath  P.R. Christensen 《Icarus》2003,161(2):319-345

We have analyzed the temperature retrievals from Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) nadir spectra to yield latitude-height resolved maps of various atmospheric forced wave modes as a function of season for a full Mars year. Among the isolated wave modes is the zonal mean, time mean temperature, which we used to derive zonal mean zonal winds and stationary wave quasi-geostrophic indices of refraction, diagnostic of their propagation. The diurnal Kelvin wave was isolated in the data, with results roughly consistent with models (Wilson and Hamilton, 1996, J. Atmos. Sci. 33, 1290-1326). The s = 1 and s = 2 stationary waves were found to have significant amplitude in ducts extending up the winter polar jets, while the s = 3 stationary wave was found to be confined to near the surface. The s = 1 stationary wave was found to have little phase tilt with height during northern winter, but significant westward phase tilt with height in the southern winter. This indicates that the wave carries heat poleward, slightly more than that found in Barnes et al. (1996; J. Geophys. Res. 101, 12,753-12,776). The s = 1 stationary wave is likely the dominant mechanism for eddy meridional heat transport for the southern winter. We noted that the phase of the s = 2 stationary wave is nearly constant with time, but that the s = 1 stationary wave moved 90° of longitude from fall to winter and back in spring in the North. While interannual variability is not yet addressed, overall, these results provide the first comprehensive benchmark for forced waves in Mars’s atmosphere against which future atmospheric models of Mars can be compared.  相似文献   

Observational constraints on the inflaton potential combined with flow equations in inflaton space     

Steen H. Hansen  Martin Kunz 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2002,336(3):1007-1010

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A framework for testing the ability of models to project climate change and its impacts   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

J. C. Refsgaard  H. Madsen  V. Andréassian  K. Arnbjerg-Nielsen  T. A. Davidson  M. Drews  D. P. Hamilton  E. Jeppesen  E. Kjellström  J. E. Olesen  T. O. Sonnenborg  D. Trolle  P. Willems  J. H. Christensen 《Climatic change》2014,122(1-2):271-282

Models used for climate change impact projections are typically not tested for simulation beyond current climate conditions. Since we have no data truly reflecting future conditions, a key challenge in this respect is to rigorously test models using proxies of future conditions. This paper presents a validation framework and guiding principles applicable across earth science disciplines for testing the capability of models to project future climate change and its impacts. Model test schemes comprising split-sample tests, differential split-sample tests and proxy site tests are discussed in relation to their application for projections by use of single models, ensemble modelling and space-time-substitution and in relation to use of different data from historical time series, paleo data and controlled experiments. We recommend that differential-split sample tests should be performed with best available proxy data in order to build further confidence in model projections.  相似文献   

Mean-field concept and direct numerical simulations of rotating magnetoconvection and the geodynamo     

Martin Schrinner  Karl-Heinz Rädler  Matthias Rheinhardt  Ulrich R. Christensen 《地球物理与天体物理流体动力学》2013,107(2):81-116

Mean-field theory describes magnetohydrodynamic processes leading to large-scale magnetic fields in various cosmic objects. In this study magnetoconvection and dynamo processes in a rotating spherical shell are considered. Mean fields are defined by azimuthal averaging. In the framework of mean-field theory, the coefficients which determine the traditional representation of the mean electromotive force, including derivatives of the mean magnetic field up to the first order, are crucial for analyzing and simulating dynamo action. Two methods are developed to extract mean-field coefficients from direct numerical simulations of the mentioned processes. While the first method does not use intrinsic approximations, the second one is based on the second-order correlation approximation. There is satisfying agreement of the results of both methods for sufficiently slow fluid motions. Both methods are applied to simulations of rotating magnetoconvection and a quasi-stationary geodynamo. The mean-field induction effects described by these coefficients, e.g., the α-effect, are highly anisotropic in both examples. An α²-mechanism is suggested along with a strong γ-effect operating outside the inner core tangent cylinder. The turbulent diffusivity exceeds the molecular one by at least one order of magnitude in the geodynamo example. With the aim to compare mean-field simulations with corresponding direct numerical simulations, a two-dimensional mean-field model involving all previously determined mean-field coefficients was constructed. Various tests with different sets of mean-field coefficients reveal their action and significance. In the magnetoconvection and geodynamo examples considered here, the match between direct numerical simulations and mean-field simulations is only satisfying if a large number of mean-field coefficients are involved. In the magnetoconvection example, the azimuthally averaged magnetic field resulting from the numerical simulation is in good agreement with its counterpart in the mean-field model. However, this match is not completely satisfactory in the geodynamo case anymore. Here the traditional representation of the mean electromotive force ignoring higher than first-order spatial derivatives of the mean magnetic field is no longer a good approximation.  相似文献   

Numerical modelling of morphodynamics—Vilaine Estuary   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Hans Jacob Vested  Caroline Tessier  Bo Brahtz Christensen  Evelyne Goubert 《Ocean Dynamics》2013,63(4):423-446

The main objective of this paper is to develop a method to simulate long-term morphodynamics of estuaries dominated by fine sediments, which are subject to both tidal flow and meteorologically induced variations in freshwater run-off and wave conditions. The method is tested on the Vilaine Estuary located in South Brittany, France. The estuary is subject to a meso–macrotidal regime. The semi-diurnal tidal range varies from around 2.5 to 5 m at neap and spring, respectively. The freshwater input is controlled by a dam located approximately 8 km from the mouth of the estuary. Sediments are characterised as mostly fines, but more sandy areas are also found. The morphology of the estuary is highly influenced by the dam. It is very dynamic and changes in a complicated manner with the run-off from the dam, the tide and the wave forcing at the mouth of the estuary. Extensive hydrodynamic and sediment field data have been collected in the past and provide a solid scientific basis for studying the estuary. Based on a conceptual understanding of the morphodynamics, a numerical morphological model with coupled hydrodynamic, surface wave and sediment transport models is formulated. The numerical models are calibrated to reproduce sediment concentrations, tidal flat altimetry and overall sediment fluxes. Scaling factors are applied to a reference year to form quasi-realistic hydrodynamic forcing and river run-off, which allow for the simulations to be extended to other years. The simulation results are compared with observed bathymetric changes in the estuary during the period 1998–2005. The models and scaling factors are applied to predict the morphological development over a time scale of up to 10 years. The influence of the initial conditions and the sequence of external hydrodynamic forcing, with respect to the morphodynamic response of the estuary, are discussed.  相似文献   

Fostering renewable energy with smart specialisation? Insights into European innovation policy     

Markus Steen  Fabian Faller  Eli Fyhn Ullern 《Norsk geografisk tidsskrift. Norwegian journal of geography》2019,73(1):39-52

ABSTRACT

The transition to a low-carbon economy is a major challenge confronting policymakers at all government levels. In the European Union (EU), ambitious targets for reductions in greenhouse gas emission are linked to aspirations of fostering green growth at national and regional levels. These aspirations have been manifested in a recent radical policy change through the introduction of the smart specialisation research and innovation strategy (RIS3) for national and regional development. The novelty of the RIS3 compared with previous EU innovation policy is that it aims to develop regional competitiveness based on the harnessing of regional assets rather than focusing on the provision of innovation infrastructure. In this article, the authors employ a mixed-methods research approach both to explore the nature and content of energy-related priority settings in RIS3 strategies in the EU and to address the question of regions’ abilities to foster renewable energy through their place-based strategies. The article contributes to the literature on policy strategies for realising EU energy and emissions targets and the RIS3 aim of developing competitive advantages. The main conclusions are that energy-related priority settings vary substantially within RIS3, and that regional innovation policy ambitions may be hindered by unconducive policy frameworks at national levels.  相似文献   

Fast approximate 1D modelling and inversion of transient electromagnetic data          下载免费PDF全文

Niels B. Christensen 《Geophysical Prospecting》2016,64(6):1620-1631

A novel, fast, and approximate forward modelling routine for time‐domain electromagnetic responses is presented. It is based on the separation of the forward problem into a configuration‐independent part, mapping conductivity as a function of depth onto apparent conductivity as a function of time, and a configuration‐dependent part, i.e., the half‐space step response. The response of a layered model is then found as the half‐space response for a half‐space conductivity equal to the apparent conductivity. The mapping is ten times faster than traditional accurate forward modelling routines, and through stochastic modelling, it is found that the standard deviation of the modelling error is 0.7 %. The forward mapping lends itself to integration in a modern state‐of‐the‐art inversion formulation in exactly the same way as traditionally computed responses, and a field example is included where inversion results using the approximate forward response are compared with those of an accurate forward response for helicopterborne transient electromagnetic data. In addition to being used in its own right in inversion of transient data, the speed and accuracy of the approximate inversion mean that it is well suited for quality control and fast turnaround data delivery of survey results to a client. It can also be used in hybrid inversion formulations by supplying initial iterations and high‐quality derivatives in an inversion based on accurate forward modelling.  相似文献