Event-based classification for global study of river flood generating processes     

Lina Stein  Francesca Pianosi  Ross Woods 《水文研究》2020,34(7):1514-1529

Better understanding of which processes generate floods in a catchment can improve flood frequency analysis and potentially climate change impacts assessment. However, current flood classification methods are either not transferable across locations or do not provide event-based information. We therefore developed a location-independent, event-based flood classification methodology that is applicable in different climates and returns a classification of all flood events, including extreme ones. We use precipitation time series and very simply modelled soil moisture and snowmelt as inputs for a decision tree. A total of 113,635 events in 4155 catchments worldwide were classified into one of five hydro-climatological flood generating processes: short rain, long rain, excess rainfall, snowmelt and a combination of rain and snow. The new classification was tested for its robustness and evaluated with available information; these two tests are often lacking in current flood classification approaches. According to the evaluation, the classification is mostly successful and indicates excess rainfall as the most common dominant process. However, the dominant process is not very informative in most catchments, as there is a high at-site variability in flood generating processes. This is particularly relevant for the estimation of extreme floods which diverge from their usual flood generation pattern, especially in the United Kingdom, Northern France, Southeastern United States, and India.  相似文献   

Evaluation of bank filtration as a pretreatment method for the provision of hygienically safe drinking water in Norway: results from monitoring at two full-scale sites     

Hanne M. L. Kvitsand  Mette Myrmel  Liv Fiksdal  Stein W. Østerhus 《Hydrogeology Journal》2017,25(5):1257-1269

Two case studies were carried out in central Norway in order to assess the performance of bank filtration systems in cold-climate fluvial aquifers relying on recharge from humic-rich surface waters with moderate microbial contamination. Three municipal wells and two surface-water sources at operative bank filtration systems were monitored for naturally occurring bacteriophages, fecal indicators, natural organic matter (NOM) and physico-chemical water quality parameters during a 4-month period. Aquifer passage effectively reduced the microorganism and NOM concentrations at both study sites. Bacteriophages were detected in 13 of 16 (81%) surface-water samples and in 4 of 24 (17%) well-water samples, and underwent 3 ± 0.3 log₁₀ reduction after 50–80-m filtration and 20–30 days of subsurface passage. NOM reductions (color: 74–97%; dissolved organic carbon: 54–80%; very hydrophobic acids: 70%) were similar to those achieved by conventional water-treatment processes and no further treatment was needed. Both groundwater dilution and sediment filtration contributed to the hygienic water quality improvements, but sediment filtration appeared to be the most important process with regard to microbial and NOM reductions. A strengths-weaknesses-opportunities-threats analysis showed that bank filtration technology has a high potential as a pretreatment method for the provision of hygienically safe drinking water in Norway.  相似文献   

The Niassa Gold Belt,northern Mozambique – A segment of a continental-scale Pan-African gold-bearing structure?     

T. Bjerkgard  H.J. Stein  B. Bingen  I.H.C. Henderson  J.S. Sandstad  A. Moniz 《Journal of African Earth Sciences》2009,53(1-2):45-58

The Niassa Gold Belt, in northernmost Mozambique, is hosted in the Txitonga Group, a Neoproterozoic rift sequence overlying Paleoproterozoic crust of the Congo–Tanzania Craton and deformed during the Pan-African Orogeny. The Txitonga Group is made up of greenschist-facies greywacke and schist and is characterized by bimodal, mainly mafic, magmatism. A zircon U–Pb age for a felsic volcanite dates deposition of the sequence at 714 ± 17 Ma. Gold is mined artisanally from alluvial deposits and primary chalcopyrite-pyrite-bearing quartz veins containing up to 19 ppm Au have been analyzed. In the Cagurué and M’Papa gold fields, dominantly N–S trending quartz veins, hosted in metagabbro and schist, are regarded as tension gashes related to regional strike-slip NE–SW-trending Pan-African shear zones. These gold deposits have been classified as mesozonal and metamorphic in origin. Re–Os isotopic data on sulfides suggest two periods of gold deposition for the Cagurué Gold Field. A coarse-crystalline pyrite–chalcopyrite assemblage yields an imprecise Pan-African age of 483 ± 72 Ma, dating deposition of the quartz veins. Remobilization of early-formed sulfides, particularly chalcopyrite, took place at 112 ± 14 Ma, during Lower Cretaceous Gondwana dispersal. The ～483 Ma assemblage yields a chondritic initial ¹⁸⁷Os/¹⁸⁸Os ratio of 0.123 ± 0.058. This implies a juvenile source for the ore fluids, possibly involving the hosting Neoproterozoic metagabbro. The Niassa Gold Belt is situated at the eastern end of a SW–NE trending continental-scale lineament defined by the Mwembeshi Shear Zone and the southern end of a NW–SE trending lineament defined by the Rukwa Shear Zone. We offer a review of gold deposits in Zambia and Tanzania associated with these polyphase lineaments and speculate on their interrelation.  相似文献   

Deriving Optimal Exploration Target Zones on Mineral Prospectivity Maps     

Pravesh Debba  Emmanuel J. M. Carranza  Alfred Stein  Freek D. van der Meer 《Mathematical Geosciences》2009,41(4):421-446

This paper describes a quantitative methodology for deriving optimal exploration target zones based on a probabilistic mineral prospectivity map. The methodology is demonstrated in the Rodalquilar mineral district in Spain. A subset of known occurrences of mineral deposits of the type sought was considered discovered and then used as training data, and a map of distances to faults/fractures and three band ratio images of hyperspectral data were used as layers of spatial evidence in weights-of-evidence (WofE) modeling of mineral prospectivity in the study area. A derived posterior probability map of mineral deposit occurrence showing non-violation of the conditional independence assumption and having the highest prediction rate was then put into an objective function in simulated annealing in order to derive a set of optimal exploration focal points. Each optimal exploration focal point represents a pixel or location within a circular neighborhood of pixels with high posterior probability of mineral deposit occurrence. Buffering of each optimal exploration focal point, based on proximity analysis, resulted in optimal exploration target zones. Many of these target zones coincided spatially with at least one occurrence of mineral deposit of the type sought in the subset of cross-validation (i.e., presumed undiscovered) mineral deposits of the type sought. The results of the study showed the usefulness of the proposed methodology for objective delineation of optimal exploration target zones based on a probabilistic mineral prospectivity map.  相似文献   

Wavelets applied to simplification of digital terrain models     

Jan T. Bj⊘rke  Stein Nilsen 《International journal of geographical information science》2013,27(7):601-621

Wavelet thresholding is used to generate simplified terrain models. This non-linear filtering technique is adaptive in the sense that the large wavelet coefficients in areas of high relief are kept, whereas all coefficients smaller than a threshold value, representing smooth areas, are thrown away. The degree of detail in the simplified model is controlled by the number of wavelet coefficients retained. Two different areas are analysed using this method. The experiments show the smoothing effect of the thresholding, and how the main terrain features survive as the threshold value increases. At large threshold values the method introduces blocking artifacts in the model.  相似文献   

Statistics-based outlier detection for wireless sensor networks     

Y. Zhang  N.A.S. Hamm  N. Meratnia  A. Stein  M. van de Voort  P.J.M. Havinga 《International journal of geographical information science》2013,27(8):1373-1392

Wireless sensor network (WSN) applications require efficient, accurate and timely data analysis in order to facilitate (near) real-time critical decision-making and situation awareness. Accurate analysis and decision-making relies on the quality of WSN data as well as on the additional information and context. Raw observations collected from sensor nodes, however, may have low data quality and reliability due to limited WSN resources and harsh deployment environments. This article addresses the quality of WSN data focusing on outlier detection. These are defined as observations that do not conform to the expected behaviour of the data. The developed methodology is based on time-series analysis and geostatistics. Experiments with a real data set from the Swiss Alps showed that the developed methodology accurately detected outliers in WSN data taking advantage of their spatial and temporal correlations. It is concluded that the incorporation of tools for outlier detection in WSNs can be based on current statistical methodology. This provides a usable and important tool in a novel scientific field.  相似文献   

Untangling the influence of in-lake productivity and terrestrial organic matter flux on 4,250 years of mercury accumulation in Lake Hambre, Southern Chile     

Yvonne-Marie Hermanns  Antonio Martinez Cortizas  Helge Arz  Rüdiger Stein  Harald Biester 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2013,49(4):563-573

There is ongoing debate about the relative influence of aquatic production, flux, and sedimentation of aquatic and terrestrial organic matter on mercury accumulation in lake sediments. In this study, lake sediments spanning the past 4,250 years, were collected from remote, organic-rich Lake Hambre, Patagonia (53° S) and investigated for changes in the accumulation of pre-anthropogenic mercury and organic matter of aquatic and terrestrial origin. Natural mercury accumulation varied by up to a factor of four, comparable to the recent anthropogenic forcing of the mercury cycle (factor 3–5). Hydrogen and Oxygen indices (HI and OI, Rock–Eval©) and nitrogen/carbon ratios of the organic matter, combined with multi-element sediment data, reveal intense changes in aquatic productivity as well as influx of terrestrial organic matter into the lake. Evaluation of the multi-element dataset using Principal Component Analysis shows clear covariation of mercury with other soil-derived elements such as copper and yttrium. This covariance reflects a common transport mechanism, i.e. leaching of trace-element-bearing organic matter complexes from catchment soils. Correlation between changes in aquatic productivity and mercury concentrations occurs in some sections of the record, but we do not suggest they are linked by a direct causal relationship. Mass balance approaches suggest that mercury scavenging and accumulation in this organic-rich lake is controlled by the supply of mercury from catchment soils rather than the amount of organic material produced within the water column. A common controlling mechanism, i.e. changing climate, however, is thought to independently drive variations in both the flux of terrestrial organic matter mercury complexes and aquatic productivity.  相似文献   

Vulnerability of buildings to debris flow impact   总被引：5，自引：1，他引：4  

M. Jakob  D. Stein  M. Ulmi 《Natural Hazards》2012,60(2):241-261

Quantitative risk assessments (QRAs) for landslide hazards are increasingly being executed to determine an unmitigated level of risk and compare it with risk tolerance criteria set by the local or federal jurisdiction. This approach allows urban planning with a scientific underpinning and provides the tools for emergency preparedness. Debris-flow QRAs require estimates of the hazard probability, spatial and temporal probability of impact (hazard assessment) and vulnerability of the elements at risk. The vulnerability term is perhaps the most difficult to estimate confidently because (a) human death in debris flows is most commonly associated with building damage or collapse and is thus an indirect consequence and (b) the type and scale of building damage is very difficult to predict. To determine building damage, an intensity index (I _DF) was created as the product of maximum expected flow depth d and the square of the maximum flow velocity v (I _DF = dv ²). The I _DF surrogates impact force and thus correlates with building damage. Four classes of building damage were considered ranging from nuisance flood/sedimentation damage to complete destruction. Sixty-six well-documented case studies in which damage, flow depth and flow velocity were recorded or could be estimated were selected through a search of the global literature, and I _DF was plotted on a log scale against the associated damage. As expected, the individual damage classes overlap but are distinctly different in their respective distributions and group centroids. To apply this vulnerability model, flow velocity and flow depth need to be estimated for a given building location and I _DF calculated. Using the existing database, a damage probability (P _DF) can then be computed. P _DF can be applied directly to estimate the likely insurance loss or associated loss of life. The model presented here should be updated with more case studies and is therefore made openly available to international researchers who can access it at .  相似文献   

Earthquake Modelling at the Country Level Using Aggregated Spatio-Temporal Point Processes   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

M. N. M. van Lieshout  A. Stein 《Mathematical Geosciences》2012,44(3):309-326

The goal of this paper is to derive a hazard map for earthquake occurrences in Pakistan from a catalogue that contains spatial coordinates of shallow earthquakes of magnitude 4.5 or larger aggregated over calendar years. We test relative temporal stationarity by the KPSS statistic and use the inhomogeneous J-function to test for inter-point interactions. We then formulate a cluster model, and de-convolve in order to calculate the hazard map, and verify that no particular year has an undue influence on the map. Within the borders of the single country, the KPSS test did not show any deviation from homogeneity in the spatial intensities. The inhomogeneous J-function indicated clustering that could not be attributed to inhomogeneity, and the analysis of aftershocks showed some evidence of two major shocks instead of one during the 2005 Kashmir earthquake disaster. Thus, the spatial point pattern analysis carried out for these data was insightful in various aspects and the hazard map that was obtained may lead to improved measures to protect the population against the disastrous effects of earthquakes.  相似文献   

余震密度随距离的衰减不代表动态应力触发过程     

K.R.-Dinger  R.S.Stein  S.Toda  魏志恒  冯蔚 《世界地震译丛》2011,(3)

分辨多数余震和后续主震是由静态应力触发(Stein,1999;Todaetal,2005;Parsons,2002)还是动态应力触发(Hilletal,1993;kilb,2003;Brodsky and Prejean,2005;Gomberg and Johnson,2005;Hill and Prejean,2007),对理解地震内在作用和预测地震危险性是有必要的(Freed,2005)。Felzer和Brodsky(2006)分析了2≤M<3和3≤M<4级主震后5min内余震的空间分布情况,发现距主震50km范围内M≥2余震具有特定的幂律衰减关系,且衰减曲线的斜率为-1.35。据此,他们认为余震随距离的衰减只能用动态触发来解释。基于上述假设我们进行了一系列的检验,但没有一个可通过检验,进而,本文中对这种衰减关系提出了另外一种解释。在距离2≤M<3主震300m以外的地方,主震前5min内的地震活动性衰减与主震后5min内的衰减没有显著的区别,表明主震对它静态触发区域以外的地方没有影响。表征余震基本特性的大森随时间衰减关系在距离主震10km以外的地方是不存在的。最后,发现在主震波前未到达之前的余震中发现了...  相似文献