In late October and early November 2003, a series of space weather hazard events erupted in solar-terrestrial space. Aiming
at two intense storm (shock) events on 28 and 29 October, this paper presents a Two-Step method, which combines synoptic analysis
of space weather–`observing’ and quantitative prediction – ‘palpating’, and uses it to test predictions. In the first step,
‘observing’, on the basis of observations of the source surface magnetic field, interplanetary scintillation (IPS) and ACE
spacecraft, we find that the propagation of the shock waves is asymmetric and northward relative to the normal direction of
their solar sources due to the large-scale configuration of the coronal magnetic fields, and the Earth is located near the
direction of the fastest speed and greatest energy of the shocks. Being two fast ejection shock events, the fast explosion
of extremely high temperature and strong magnetic field, and background solar wind velocity as high as 600 and 1000 km s−1, are also helpful to their rapid propagation. According to the synoptic analysis, the shock travel times can be estimated
as 21 and 20 h, which are close to the observational results of 19.97 and 19.63 h, respectively. In the second step, ‘palpating’,
we adopt a new membership function of the fast shock events for the ISF method. The predicted results here show that for the
onset time of the geomagnetic disturbance, the relative errors between the observational and the predicted results are 1.8
and 6.7%, which are consistent with the estimated results of the first step; and for the magnetic disturbance magnitude, the
relative errors between the observational and the predicted results are 4.1 and 3.1%, respectively. Furthermore, the comparison
among the predicted results of our Two-Step method with those of five other prevailing methods shows that the Two-Step method
is advantageous in predicting such strong shock event. It can predict not only shock arrival time, but also the magnitude
of magnetic disturbance. The results of the present paper tell us that understanding the physical features of shock propagation
thoroughly is of great importance in improving the prediction efficiency. 相似文献
An empirical kinematic method developed by Hakamada and Akasofu (1982) is calibrated on the basis of a one-dimensional MHD solution. The calibrated results are used to simulate the stream-stream interaction and the background corotating structure in a simple situation and also during 22 November–6 December 1977. The solar wind disturbances caused by solar activities during this period are then introduced into the above background stream in simulating the heliospheric disturbance event which was observed by an aligned set of spacecraft at distances between 0.6 and 1.6 a.u. The observations and the simulated results are satisfactory, and a little more refinement in the simulation could reconstruct reasonably well the data by filling the data gaps in the solar wind speed, the density and the IMF magnitude. 相似文献
1 Introduction Huanghe (Yellow) River basin is located in 32°–42°N, 96°–119°E. The area of the catchment is more than 752,000km2. The river is 5464km long with a drop in elevation of 4830m. Among the whole area, the moun- tainous and stone area accounts for 29%, loess and hills area 46%, sandy area 11% and plain area 14%, respec- tively. Different natural landscapes exist in this area. The Huanghe River flows through the Loess Plateau, where the soil is eroded seriously (Wang, 2002;… 相似文献
As well known, the methods of remote sensing and Bowen Ratio for retrieving surface flux are based on energy balance closure; however, in most cases, surface energy observed in experiment is lack of closure. There are two main causes for this: one is from the errors of the observation devices and the differences of their observational scale; the other lies in the effect of horizontal advection on the surface flux measurement. Therefore, it is very important to estimate the effects of horizontal advection quantitatively. Based on the local advection theory and the surface experiment, a model has been proposed for correcting the effect of horizontal advection on surface flux measurement, in which the relationship between the fetch of the measurement and pixel size for remote sensed data was considered. By means of numerical simulations, the sensitivities of the main parameters in the model and the scaling problems of horizontal advection were analyzed. At last, by using the observational data acquired in agricultural field with relatively homogeneous surface, the model was validated.
The dunes in estuary of Tumen River in China lie to the area between the Jiushaping and Fangchuan in the left bank of Tumen River (Fig.1). The dis-tance is about 15～20 km between the dunes and the coast. It ranges from China to D. P. R. Korea and Russia. The range of the height of dunes is about 15～20 m and the width is 100～200 m. By the re-connaissance, we protracted 9 section planes of the dunes and collected 40 sand samples of the dunes, and identified the sedimentary environment … 相似文献
This paper discusses the results of geoacoustic inversion carried out using explosive charge data from the Asian Seas International Acoustic Experiment (ASIAEX) East China Sea (ECS) Experiment. A multifrequency incoherent matched-field inversion processor and a genetic algorithm (GA) are used for the inversion. A multistep matched field inversion approach is presented, which makes use of the varying sensitivities of wave fields at various frequencies to reduce the inversion problem into a sequence of smaller inversions with fewer unknowns to estimate at each stage. Different parameters are estimated using data at different frequencies according to their sensitivities. Inversion results for different areas in the ECS region are summarized and compared with core data. 相似文献
Long-term measurement of carbon metabolism of old-growth forests is critical to predict their behaviors and to reduce the uncertainties of carbon accounting under changing climate. Eddy covariance technology was applied to investigate the long-term carbon exchange over a 200 year-old Chinese broad-leaved Korean pine mixed forest in the Changbai Mountains (128°28′E and 42°24′N, Jilin Province, P. R. China) since August 2002. On the data obtained with open-path eddy covariance system and CO2 profile measurement system from Jan. 2003 to Dec. 2004, this paper reports (i) annual and seasonal variation of FNEE, FGPP and RE; (ii) regulation of environmental factors on phase and amplitude of ecosystem CO2 uptake and release Corrections due to storage and friction velocity were applied to the eddy carbon flux.
LAI and soil temperature determined the seasonal and annual dynamics of FGPP and RE separately. VPD and air temperature regulated ecosystem photosynthesis at finer scales in growing seasons. Water condition at the root zone exerted a significant influence on ecosystem maintenance carbon metabolism of this forest in winter.
The forest was a net sink of atmospheric CO2 and sequestered −449 g C·m−2 during the study period; −278 and −171 gC·m−2 for 2003 and 2004 respectively. FGPP and FRE over 2003 and 2004 were −1332, −1294 g C·m−2. and 1054, 1124 g C·m−2 respectively. This study shows that old-growth forest can be a strong net carbon sink of atmospheric CO2.
There was significant seasonal and annual variation in carbon metabolism. In winter, there was weak photosynthesis while the ecosystem emitted CO2. Carbon exchanges were active in spring and fall but contributed little to carbon sequestration on an annual scale. The summer is the most significant season as far as ecosystem carbon balance is concerned. The 90 days of summer contributed 66.9, 68.9% of FGPP, and 60.4, 62.1% of RE of the entire year.
