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81.
Particulate organic carbon (POC) in surface sediments of the Baltic Sea   总被引:2,自引:2,他引:0  
In this study, particulate organic carbon (POC) contents and their distribution pattern in surficial sediments of the Baltic Sea are presented for 1,471 sampling stations. POC contents range from approx. 0.1% in shallow sandy areas up to 16% in deep muddy basins (e.g. Gotland Basin). Some novel relationships were identified between sediment mass physical properties (dry bulk density (DBD), grain size) and POC levels. Notably, the highest POC concentrations (about 10–17 mg cm–3) occur in sandy mud to mud (60–100% mud content) with intermediate POC contents of about 3–7% and DBDs of 0.1–0.4 g cm–3. Areas with this range in values seem to represent the optimum conditions for POC accumulation in the Baltic Sea. The maximum POC contents (8–16%) are found in fluid mud of the central Baltic Sea characterized by extremely low DBDs (<0.1 g cm–3) and moderate POC concentrations (4–7 mg cm–3). Furthermore, sediment mass accumulation rates (MAR), based on 210Pb and 137Cs measurements and available for 303 sites of the Baltic Sea, were used for assessing the spatial distribution of POC burial rates. Overall, these vary between 14 and 35 g m–2 year–1 in the mud depositional areas and, in total, at least 3.5 (±2.9) Mt POC are buried annually. Distribution patterns of POC contents and burial rates are not identical for the central Baltic Sea because of the low MAR in this area. The presented data characterize Baltic Sea sediments as an important sink for organic carbon. Regional differences in organic carbon deposition can be explained by the origin and transport pathways of POC, as well as the environmental conditions prevailing at the seafloor (morphology, currents, redox conditions). These findings can serve to improve budget calculations and modelling of the carbon cycle in this large brackish-water marginal sea.  相似文献   
82.
A five-member ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) simulations for Europe, with a high resolution nest over Germany, is analysed in a two-part paper: Part I (the current paper) presents the performance of the models for the control period, and Part II presents results for near future climate changes. Two different RCMs, CLM and WRF, were used to dynamically downscale simulations with the ECHAM5 and CCCma3 global climate models (GCMs), as well as the ERA40-reanalysis for validation purposes. Three realisations of ECHAM5 and one with CCCma3 were downscaled with CLM, and additionally one realisation of ECHAM5 with WRF. An approach of double nesting was used, first to an approximately 50 km resolution for entire Europe and then to a domain of approximately 7 km covering Germany and its near surroundings. Comparisons of the fine nest simulations are made to earlier high resolution simulations for the region with the RCM REMO for two ECHAM5 realisations. Biases from the GCMs are generally carried over to the RCMs, which can then reduce or worsen the biases. The bias of the coarse nest is carried over to the fine nest but does not change in amplitude, i.e. the fine nest does not add additional mean bias to the simulations. The spatial pattern of the wet bias over central Europe is similar for all CLM simulations, and leads to a stronger bias in the fine nest simulations compared to that of WRF and REMO. The wet bias in the CLM model is found to be due to a too frequent drizzle, but for higher intensities the distributions are well simulated with both CLM and WRF at the 50 and 7 km resolutions. Also the spatial distributions are close to high resolution gridded observations. The REMO model has low biases in the domain averages over Germany and no drizzle problem, but has a shift in the mean precipitation patterns and a strong overestimation of higher intensities. The GCMs perform well in simulating the intensity distribution of precipitation at their own resolution, but the RCMs add value to the distributions when compared to observations at the fine nest resolution.  相似文献   
83.
An analysis is presented of an ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) experiments from the ENSEMBLES project in terms of mean winter snow water equivalent (SWE), the seasonal evolution of snow cover, and the duration of the continuous snow cover season in the European Alps. Two sets of simulations are considered, one driven by GCMs assuming the SRES A1B greenhouse gas scenario for the period 1951–2099, and the other by the ERA-40 reanalysis for the recent past. The simulated SWE for Switzerland for the winters 1971–2000 is validated against an observational data set derived from daily snow depth measurements. Model validation shows that the RCMs are capable of simulating the general spatial and seasonal variability of Alpine snow cover, but generally underestimate snow at elevations below 1,000 m and overestimate snow above 1,500 m. Model biases in snow cover can partly be related to biases in the atmospheric forcing. The analysis of climate projections for the twenty first century reveals high inter-model agreement on the following points: The strongest relative reduction in winter mean SWE is found below 1,500 m, amounting to 40–80 % by mid century relative to 1971–2000 and depending upon the model considered. At these elevations, mean winter temperatures are close to the melting point. At higher elevations the decrease of mean winter SWE is less pronounced but still a robust feature. For instance, at elevations of 2,000–2,500 m, SWE reductions amount to 10–60 % by mid century and to 30–80 % by the end of the century. The duration of the continuous snow cover season shows an asymmetric reduction with strongest shortening in springtime when ablation is the dominant factor for changes in SWE. We also find a substantial ensemble-mean reduction of snow reliability relevant to winter tourism at elevations below about 1,800 m by mid century, and at elevations below about 2,000 m by the end of the century.  相似文献   
84.
Mapping global land system archetypes   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
Land use is a key driver of global environmental change. Unless major shifts in consumptive behaviours occur, land-based production will have to increase drastically to meet future demands for food and other commodities. One approach to better understand the drivers and impacts of agricultural intensification is the identification of global, archetypical patterns of land systems. Current approaches focus on broad-scale representations of dominant land cover with limited consideration of land-use intensity. In this study, we derived a new global representation of land systems based on more than 30 high-resolution datasets on land-use intensity, environmental conditions and socioeconomic indicators. Using a self-organizing map algorithm, we identified and mapped twelve archetypes of land systems for the year 2005. Our analysis reveals similarities in land systems across the globe but the diverse pattern at sub-national scales implies that there are no ‘one-size-fits-all’ solutions to sustainable land management. Our results help to identify generic patterns of land pressures and environmental threats and provide means to target regionalized strategies to cope with the challenges of global change. Mapping global archetypes of land systems represents a first step towards better understanding the global patterns of human–environment interactions and the environmental and social outcomes of land system dynamics.  相似文献   
85.
Fossil diatoms from lake sediments have been used to infer both past trophic state and climate conditions. In Europe, climate reconstructions focused on northern and alpine regions because these areas are climatically sensitive and anthropogenic impact was low. In contrast, anthropogenic impact was often high in the central European lowlands, such as northern Germany, beginning in the Neolithic Age, ~3700 BC. Since that time, trophic state change was the main factor that affected diatom assemblages in central European lowland lakes. Therefore, it was considered difficult or impossible to identify climate changes in the region using sedimented diatoms. We used diatom assemblage changes, diatom-inferred total phosphorus concentrations and the relative abundance of planktonic diatoms from sediments of three lakes that differ in their location, size, morphology, catchment area and current trophic state to test whether we could distinguish between trophic state and climate signals over the past 5,000 years in northern Germany. In this study, changes in trophic state and climate were well differentiated. In the study lakes, relative abundance of planktonic diatoms seems to be linked to the length of lake mixing phases. Planktonic diatom abundance decreased during years with shorter mixing duration, and these shorter mixing times probably reflect colder winters. The diatom-inferred periods of short mixing phases from 1000 BC to AD 500 and from AD 1300 to 1800 coincide well with two known cooling phases in Europe and the North Atlantic region.  相似文献   
86.
87.
Abstract

We present a procedure for estimating Q95 low flows in both gauged and ungauged catchments where Q95 is the flow that is exceeded 95% of the time. For each step of the estimation procedure, a number of alternative methods was tested on the Austrian data set by leave-one-out cross-validation, and the method that performed best was used in the final procedure. To maximise the accuracy of the estimates, we combined relevant sources of information including long streamflow records, short streamflow records, and catchment characteristics, according to data availability. Rather than deriving a single low flow estimate for each catchment, we estimated lower and upper confidence limits to allow local information to be incorporated in a practical application of the procedure. The components of the procedure consist of temporal (climate) adjustments for short records; grouping catchments into eight seasonality-based regions; regional regressions of low flows with catchment characteristics; spatial adjustments for exploiting local streamflow data; and uncertainty assessment. The results are maps of lower and upper confidence limits of low flow discharges for 21 000 sub-catchments in Austria.  相似文献   
88.
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90.
The impact of periglacial and glacial climate conditions on groundwater flow in fractured crystalline rock is studied by means of groundwater flow modeling of the Forsmark site, which was recently proposed as a repository site for the disposal of spent high-level nuclear fuel in Sweden. The employed model uses a thermal-hydraulically coupled approach for permafrost modeling and discusses changes in groundwater flow implied by the climate conditions found over northern Europe at different times during the last glacial cycle (Weichselian glaciation). It is concluded that discharge of particles released at repository depth occurs very close to the ice-sheet margin in the absence of permafrost. If permafrost is included, the greater part discharges into taliks in the periglacial area. During a glacial cycle, hydraulic gradients at repository depth reach their maximum values when the ice-sheet margin passes over the site; at this time, also, the interface between fresh and saline waters is distorted the most. The combined effect of advances and retreats during several glaciations has not been studied in the present work; however, the results indicate that hydrochemical conditions at depth in the groundwater flow model are almost restored after a single event of ice-sheet advance and retreat.  相似文献   
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