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A previous study of Fox [Fox, A.N. 1993. Snowline altitude and climate at present and during the Last Pleistocene Glacial Maximum in the Central Andes (5°–28°S). Ph.D. Thesis. Cornell University.] showed that for a fixed 0 °C isotherm altitude, the equilibrium-line altitude (ELA) of the Peruvian and Bolivian glaciers from 5 to 20°S can be expressed based on a log–normal expression of local mid-annual rainfall amount (P). In order to extrapolate the function to the whole Andes (10°N to 55°S) a local 0 °C isotherm altitude is introduced. Two applications of this generalised function are presented. One concerns the space evolution of mean inter-annual ELA for three decades (1961–1990) over the whole South American continent. A high-resolution data set (grid data: 10′ for latitude/longitude) of mean monthly air surface temperature and precipitation is used. Mean annual values over the 1961–1990 period were calculated. On each grid element, the mean annual 0 °C isotherm altitude is determined from an altitudinal temperature gradient and mean annual temperature (T) at ground level. The 0 °C isotherm altitude is then associated with the annual precipitation amount to compute the ELA. Using computed ELA and the digital terrain elevation model GTOPO30, we determine the extent of the glacierised area in Andean regions under modern climatic conditions. The other application concerns the ELA time evolution on Zongo Glacier (Bolivia), where inter-annual ELA variations are computed from 1995 to 1999. For both applications, the computed values of ELA are in good agreement with those derived from glacier mass balance measurements.  相似文献   
104.
Abstract— It is now established that a large extraterrestrial object hit the Earth at the end of the Cretaceous period, about 65 Ma ago. We have investigated Re‐Os, Hf‐W, and Mn‐Cr isotope systems in sediments from the Cretaceous and the Paleogene in order to characterize the type of impactor. Within the Cretaceous‐Tertiary (K‐T) boundary layer, extraterrestrial material is mixed with terrestrial material, causing a dilution of the extraterrestrial isotope signature that is difficult to quantify. A phase essentially composed of Ni‐rich spinel, formed in the atmosphere mainly from melted projectile material, is likely to contain the extraterrestrial isotopic signature of the impactor. We show that the analysis of spinel is indeed the best approach to determine the initial isotope composition of the impactor, and that W and Cr isotopes confirm that the projectile was a carbonaceous chondrite.  相似文献   
105.
The hydrology of Quebec, Canada, boreal fens is poorly documented. Many peatlands are located in watersheds with impounded rivers. In such cases, their presence influences reservoir inflows. In recent years, some fens have been subjected to an increase of their wet area, a sign that they may be evolving towards an aquatic ecosystem. This dynamic process is called aqualysis. This article presents the seasonal and monthly hydrological budgets of a small watershed including a highly aqualysed fen (James Bay region). The monitoring of precipitation (P), runoff (Q) and groundwater levels (WL) was conducted during the ice‐free season. Three semiempirical equations (Thornthwaite, Priestley–Taylor and Penman–Monteith) were used and compared to calculate potential evapotranspiration. The first two equations, having fewer parameters, estimate higher potential evapotranspiration values than the third equation. The use of pressure‐level gauges installed in wells, for the calculation of peatland water storage, is inconclusive. Swelling of peat, peat decomposition and plant composition could be responsible for nonnegligible amounts of absorbed water, which are not entirely accounted for by well levels. The estimation of peat matrix water storage is potentially the largest source of error and the limiting factor to calculate water balances in this environment. The results show that the groundwater level and the water storage vary depending on the season and especially after a heavy rainfall. Finally, the results illustrate the complexity of water routing through the site and thus raise several questions to be resolved in the future. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
106.
Radiative fog formation is a complex phenomenon involving local physical and microphysical processes that take place when particular meteorological conditions occur. This study aims at quantifying the ability of a regional numerical weather model to analyze and forecast the conditions favourable to radiative fog formation at an instrumental site in the Paris area. Data from the ParisFog campaign have been used in order to quantify the meteorological conditions favorable to radiative fog formation (pre-fog conditions) by setting threshold values on the key meteorological variables driving this process: 2-m temperature tendency, 10-m wind speed, 2-m relative humidity and net infrared flux. Data from the ParisFog observation periods of November 2011 indicate that use of these thresholds leads to the detection of 87 % of cases in which radiative fog formation was observed. In order to evaluate the ability of a regional weather model to reproduce adequately these conditions, the same thresholds are applied to meteorological model fields in both analysis and forecast mode. It is shown that, with this simple methodology, the model detects 74 % of the meteorological conditions finally leading to observed radiative fog, and 48 % 2 days in advance. Finally, sensitivity tests are conducted in order to evaluate the impact of using larger time or space windows on the forecasting skills.  相似文献   
107.
Abstract

The development of statistical relationships between local hydroclimates and large-scale atmospheric variables enhances the understanding of hydroclimate variability. The rainfall in the study basin (the Upper Chao Phraya River Basin, Thailand) is influenced by the Indian Ocean and tropical Pacific Ocean atmospheric circulation. Using correlation analysis and cross-validated multiple regression, the large-scale atmospheric variables, such as temperature, pressure and wind, over given regions are identified. The forecasting models using atmospheric predictors show the capability of long-lead forecasting. The modified k-nearest neighbour (k-nn) model, which is developed using the identified predictors to forecast rainfall, and evaluated by likelihood function, shows a long-lead forecast of monsoon rainfall at 7–9 months. The decreasing performance in forecasting dry-season rainfall is found for both short and long lead times. The developed model also presents better performance in forecasting pre-monsoon season rainfall in dry years compared to wet years, and vice versa for monsoon season rainfall.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz

Citation Singhrattna, N., Babel, M.S. and Perret, S.R., 2012. Hydroclimate variability and long-lead forecasting of rainfall over Thailand by large-scale atmospheric variables. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (1), 26–41.  相似文献   
108.
On the night of 1st June 2009, a Rio-Paris Air France flight (AF447) disappeared in a highly variable and poorly observed part of the western tropical Atlantic Ocean. The first debris was located 5 days after the accident. Several reverse drift computations were conducted in order to define the likely position of the wreckage. Unfortunately, the performance of the operational ocean analyses available in the region of interest ranges from 80 to 100 km of positioning error after 5 days of inverse drift computation. In preparation of the third phase of research of the wreckage at sea, a series of numerical experiments was performed at Météo-France and Mercator Océan in an attempt to better compute the surface currents in the region and for the period of the accident of the AF447 (May and June 2009). Tailored high-resolution atmosphere and ocean reanalyses were first produced respectively at Météo-France and Mercator Océan. Several nested experiments were then performed with a small and flexible ocean model limited to the region of interest. The date of the initial conditions and the type of atmospheric forcing fields were varied in order to produce a small ensemble from which information on the sensitivity to these changes could be derived. Probabilistic and statistical combinations between model and observations were tested and a solution was finally selected by means of a comparison of drift computations with independent surface drift observations.  相似文献   
109.
NWA 2737, a Martian meteorite from the Chassignite subclass, contains minute amounts (0.010 ± 0.005 vol%) of metal‐saturated Fe‐Ni sulfides. These latter bear evidence of the strong shock effects documented by abundant Fe nanoparticles and planar defects in Northwest Africa (NWA) 2737 olivine. A Ni‐poor troilite (Fe/S = 1.0 ± 0.01), sometimes Cr‐bearing (up to 1 wt%), coexists with micrometer‐sized taenite/tetrataenite‐type native Ni‐Fe alloys (Ni/Fe = 1) and Fe‐Os‐Ir‐(Ru) alloys a few hundreds of nanometers across. The troilite has exsolved flame‐like pentlandite (Fe/Fe + Ni = 0.5–0.6). Chalcopyrite is almost lacking, and no pyrite has been found. As a hot desert find, NWA 2737 shows astonishingly fresh sulfides. The composition of troilite coexisting with Ni‐Fe alloys is completely at odds with Chassigny and Nahkla sulfides (pyrite + metal‐deficient monoclinic‐type pyrrhotite). It indicates strongly reducing crystallization conditions (close to IW), several log units below the fO2 conditions inferred from chromites compositions and accepted for Chassignites (FMQ‐1 log unit). It is proposed that reduction in sulfides into base and precious metal alloys is operated via sulfur degassing, which is supported by the highly resorbed and denticulated shape of sulfide blebs and their spongy textures. Shock‐related S degassing may be responsible for considerable damages in magmatic sulfide structures and sulfide assemblages, with concomitant loss of magnetic properties as documented in some other Martian meteorites.  相似文献   
110.
Merapi, an andesitic volcanic complex in Central Java, is one of the most frequently erupting volcanoes in Indonesia and poses a permanent threat to the surrounding population of over 1 million people. With frequently recurring volcanic activity, the sixty or so reported eruptions since the mid-1500s have caused ~7,000 fatalities and destroyed numerous villages in the region. In June 2006, an eruption affected the densely populated area on the volcano’s southern and south-eastern flanks for the first time in almost a century. The resultant block-and-ash flows (BAFs) travelled down an incised river valley (Kali Gendol) to a distance of 7 km from the source, breaking out of the main channel at four main locations. Unconfined (overbank) BAFs were generated, which covered the interfluve regions on either side of the main valley and buried buildings and other infrastructure features in the village of Kaliadem, situated on the western bank of the Gendol valley ~5 km from the summit of Merapi. Using traditional volcanological field-based methods and non-invasive, high-resolution ground-penetrating radar techniques, the morphology and internal architecture of these overbank deposits were studied in detail in order to evaluate the destructive impact of these flows in a local context. The results show that complex, local-scale variations in flow dynamics and deposit architectures are apparent and that BAFs are capable of transporting significant numbers of large blocks (>1–2 m) out of the valley confines. We propose a conceptual model for the escape of these channelised BAFs onto the interfluvial terrace at Kaliadem and show, through a stratigraphic analysis of the pyroclastic successions underlying the village and adjacent areas on the volcano’s southern flank, that the area has been affected repeatedly by overbank BAFs and explosive eruptions over the past few 100 years (and more).  相似文献   
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