Hydroclimate variability and long-lead forecasting of rainfall over Thailand by large-scale atmospheric variables     

Nkrintra Singhrattna  Sylvain R. Perret 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(1):26-41

Abstract

The development of statistical relationships between local hydroclimates and large-scale atmospheric variables enhances the understanding of hydroclimate variability. The rainfall in the study basin (the Upper Chao Phraya River Basin, Thailand) is influenced by the Indian Ocean and tropical Pacific Ocean atmospheric circulation. Using correlation analysis and cross-validated multiple regression, the large-scale atmospheric variables, such as temperature, pressure and wind, over given regions are identified. The forecasting models using atmospheric predictors show the capability of long-lead forecasting. The modified k-nearest neighbour (k-nn) model, which is developed using the identified predictors to forecast rainfall, and evaluated by likelihood function, shows a long-lead forecast of monsoon rainfall at 7–9 months. The decreasing performance in forecasting dry-season rainfall is found for both short and long lead times. The developed model also presents better performance in forecasting pre-monsoon season rainfall in dry years compared to wet years, and vice versa for monsoon season rainfall.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz

Citation Singhrattna, N., Babel, M.S. and Perret, S.R., 2012. Hydroclimate variability and long-lead forecasting of rainfall over Thailand by large-scale atmospheric variables. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (1), 26–41.  相似文献   

A strategy for producing refined currents in the Equatorial Atlantic in the context of the search of the AF447 wreckage     

Marie Drévillon  Eric Greiner  Denis Paradis  Christophe Payan  Jean-Michel Lellouche  Guillaume Reffray  Edmée Durand  Stéphane Law-Chune  Sylvain Cailleau 《Ocean Dynamics》2013,63(1):63-82

On the night of 1st June 2009, a Rio-Paris Air France flight (AF447) disappeared in a highly variable and poorly observed part of the western tropical Atlantic Ocean. The first debris was located 5 days after the accident. Several reverse drift computations were conducted in order to define the likely position of the wreckage. Unfortunately, the performance of the operational ocean analyses available in the region of interest ranges from 80 to 100 km of positioning error after 5 days of inverse drift computation. In preparation of the third phase of research of the wreckage at sea, a series of numerical experiments was performed at Météo-France and Mercator Océan in an attempt to better compute the surface currents in the region and for the period of the accident of the AF447 (May and June 2009). Tailored high-resolution atmosphere and ocean reanalyses were first produced respectively at Météo-France and Mercator Océan. Several nested experiments were then performed with a small and flexible ocean model limited to the region of interest. The date of the initial conditions and the type of atmospheric forcing fields were varied in order to produce a small ensemble from which information on the sensitivity to these changes could be derived. Probabilistic and statistical combinations between model and observations were tested and a solution was finally selected by means of a comparison of drift computations with independent surface drift observations.  相似文献   

Metal‐saturated sulfide assemblages in NWA 2737: Evidence for impact‐related sulfur devolatilization in Martian meteorites     

Jean‐Pierre LORAND  Jean‐Alix BARRAT  Vincent CHEVRIER  Violaine SAUTTER  Sylvain PONT 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2012,47(11):1830-1841

NWA 2737, a Martian meteorite from the Chassignite subclass, contains minute amounts (0.010 ± 0.005 vol%) of metal‐saturated Fe‐Ni sulfides. These latter bear evidence of the strong shock effects documented by abundant Fe nanoparticles and planar defects in Northwest Africa (NWA) 2737 olivine. A Ni‐poor troilite (Fe/S = 1.0 ± 0.01), sometimes Cr‐bearing (up to 1 wt%), coexists with micrometer‐sized taenite/tetrataenite‐type native Ni‐Fe alloys (Ni/Fe = 1) and Fe‐Os‐Ir‐(Ru) alloys a few hundreds of nanometers across. The troilite has exsolved flame‐like pentlandite (Fe/Fe + Ni = 0.5–0.6). Chalcopyrite is almost lacking, and no pyrite has been found. As a hot desert find, NWA 2737 shows astonishingly fresh sulfides. The composition of troilite coexisting with Ni‐Fe alloys is completely at odds with Chassigny and Nahkla sulfides (pyrite + metal‐deficient monoclinic‐type pyrrhotite). It indicates strongly reducing crystallization conditions (close to IW), several log units below the fO₂ conditions inferred from chromites compositions and accepted for Chassignites (FMQ‐1 log unit). It is proposed that reduction in sulfides into base and precious metal alloys is operated via sulfur degassing, which is supported by the highly resorbed and denticulated shape of sulfide blebs and their spongy textures. Shock‐related S degassing may be responsible for considerable damages in magmatic sulfide structures and sulfide assemblages, with concomitant loss of magnetic properties as documented in some other Martian meteorites.  相似文献   

Overbank block-and-ash flow deposits and the impact of valley-derived, unconfined flows on populated areas at Merapi volcano, Java, Indonesia     

Ralf Gertisser  Nigel J. Cassidy  Sylvain J. Charbonnier  Luigia Nuzzo  Katie Preece 《Natural Hazards》2012,60(2):623-648

Merapi, an andesitic volcanic complex in Central Java, is one of the most frequently erupting volcanoes in Indonesia and poses a permanent threat to the surrounding population of over 1 million people. With frequently recurring volcanic activity, the sixty or so reported eruptions since the mid-1500s have caused ~7,000 fatalities and destroyed numerous villages in the region. In June 2006, an eruption affected the densely populated area on the volcano’s southern and south-eastern flanks for the first time in almost a century. The resultant block-and-ash flows (BAFs) travelled down an incised river valley (Kali Gendol) to a distance of 7 km from the source, breaking out of the main channel at four main locations. Unconfined (overbank) BAFs were generated, which covered the interfluve regions on either side of the main valley and buried buildings and other infrastructure features in the village of Kaliadem, situated on the western bank of the Gendol valley ~5 km from the summit of Merapi. Using traditional volcanological field-based methods and non-invasive, high-resolution ground-penetrating radar techniques, the morphology and internal architecture of these overbank deposits were studied in detail in order to evaluate the destructive impact of these flows in a local context. The results show that complex, local-scale variations in flow dynamics and deposit architectures are apparent and that BAFs are capable of transporting significant numbers of large blocks (>1–2 m) out of the valley confines. We propose a conceptual model for the escape of these channelised BAFs onto the interfluvial terrace at Kaliadem and show, through a stratigraphic analysis of the pyroclastic successions underlying the village and adjacent areas on the volcano’s southern flank, that the area has been affected repeatedly by overbank BAFs and explosive eruptions over the past few 100 years (and more).  相似文献   

Raman spectroscopic properties and Raman identification of CaS‐MgS‐MnS‐FeS‐Cr2FeS4 sulfides in meteorites and reduced sulfur‐rich systems     

Caroline Avril  Valérie Malavergne  Razvan Caracas  Brigitte Zanda  Bruno Reynard  Emeline Charon  Ema Bobocioiu  Fabrice Brunet  Stephan Borensztajn  Sylvain Pont  Martine Tarrida  François Guyot 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2013,48(8):1415-1426

Raman spectra were acquired on a series of natural and synthetic sulfide minerals, commonly found in enstatite meteorites: oldhamite (CaS), niningerite or keilite ((Mg,Fe)S), alabandite (MnS), troilite (FeS), and daubreelite (Cr₂FeS₄). Natural samples come from three enstatite chondrites, three aubrites, and one anomalous ungrouped enstatite meteorite. Synthetic samples range from pure endmembers (CaS, FeS, MgS) to complex solid solutions (Fe, Mg, Ca)S. The main Raman peaks are localized at 225, 285, 360, and 470 cm^?1 for the Mg‐rich sulfides; at 185, 205, and 285 cm^?1 for the Ca‐rich sulfides; at 250, 370, and 580 cm^?1 for the Mn‐rich sulfides; at 255, 290, and 365 cm^?1 for the Cr‐rich sulfides; and at 290 and 335 cm^?1 for troilite with, occasionally, an extra peak at 240 cm^?1. A peak at 160 cm^?1 is present in all Raman spectra and cannot be used to discriminate between the different sulfide compositions. According to group theory, none of the cubic monosulfides oldhamite, niningerite, or alabandite should present first‐order Raman spectra because of their ideal rocksalt structure. The occurrence of broad Raman peaks is tentatively explained by local breaking of symmetry rules. Measurements compare well with the infrared frequencies calculated from first‐principles calculations. Raman spectra arise from activation of certain vibrational modes due to clustering in the solid solutions or to coupling with electronic transitions in semiconductor sulfides.  相似文献   

A Simple Mixing Length Formulation for the Eddy-Diffusivity Parameterization of Dry Convection   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

João Teixeira  Sylvain Cheinet 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2004,110(3):435-453

In this paper a simple mixing length formulation for the eddy-diffusivityparameterization of dry convection is suggested. The new formulation relates the mixinglength to the square root of the turbulent kinetic energy (e) and a time scale ( ):l = e. To close the parameterization the time scale is calculated as a functionof the boundary-layer height (h) and the convective velocity scale (w_*), h/w_*. Thesimpler approach of a constant time scale is also studied. The simulation of a case of dry atmosphericconvection with a one-dimensional boundary-layer model shows that the model with the new formulationreproduces quite well the main properties of the convective boundary layer. In particular,the entrainment is realistically represented by the new mixing length, which has the advantage of naturallydecreasing with the turbulent kinetic energy. Sensitivity studies to the surface flux and the lapserate, in the context of a simplified situation, show the robustness of the new formulation.  相似文献   

Short-term measures for the control of ozone peaks: expertise from CTM simulations     

Fanny Lasry  Isabelle Coll  Sylvain Fayet  Maxime Havre  Robert Vautard 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》2007,57(2):107-134

In Europe, in case of the observation or the forecast of a photochemical event, punctual and local reductions in anthropogenic emissions can be triggered at the regional scale. Although the necessity for the establishment of such measures appears to be justified by bad air quality records over large European cities, individual short-term action plans (STAPs) have been blindly elaborated by regional authorities. Moreover, as they impose industrial and road traffic emission restrictions, these measures have an elevated economical cost. It is consequently crucial to determine their efficiency and potential for ozone peak reduction. The study presented in this paper aims to draw up an expertise on standard European STAPs, through the example of a French Mediterranean city. The objective is to determine and investigate the impact of current STAPs on ozone peak formation and to test ways to optimise their efficiency. In this frame, a set of emission scenarios has been elaborated and tested with the chemistry-transport model CHIMERE on the Berre–Marseille area. Simulations have shown that the tested action plans are not sufficient to eradicate severe ozone peaks and that more drastic restrictions on emissions are required to significantly affect ozone plumes. However, results also showed that the potential for ozone reduction remains small, with a maximum impact of only 5 ppbv for feasible STAPs. Finally, a temporal analysis of the ozone-emission relationship was engaged in order to optimise their application.  相似文献   

Coupes sismiques des structures superficielles dans les petites antilles—I: Guadeloupe     

Jacques Dorel  Sylvain Eschenbrenner  Michel Feuillard 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1979,117(5):1050-1069

Summary In 1976 and 1977, seismic profiles were carried out in Guadeloupe. Two profiles were established in the area of La Soufriére volcano and one profile through the northern part of Guadeloupe and southern part of Grande Terre. The two first profiles were occupied from 1 to 30 km and the third profile between 5 and 50 km.The interpretation shows that the superficial structures are characterized by a three-layers model: the compressional velocity is about 2.7 to 3.0 km/s down to a depth from 1 to 3 km. Below this, the velocity is between 4.0 and 4.5 km/s in a layer whose thickness varies from 1 to 2.5 km. Under this layer we find a 6.0–6.1 km/s layer which is one of the two known crustal layer under Lesser Antilles. The boundary between the old and new are which form the Lesser Antilles arc, is marked by a thicker layer of sediments on the eastern flank of recent volcanic chain.

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Constraining groundwater modeling with magnetic resonance soundings     

Boucher M  Favreau G  Nazoumou Y  Cappelaere B  Massuel S  Legchenko A 《Ground water》2012,50(5):775-784

Magnetic resonance sounding (MRS) is a noninvasive geophysical method that allows estimating the free water content and transmissivity of aquifers. In this article, the ability of MRS to improve the reliability of a numerical groundwater model is assessed. Thirty-five sites were investigated by MRS over a ～5000 km(2) domain of the sedimentary Continental Terminal aquifer in SW Niger. Time domain electromagnetic soundings were jointly carried out to estimate the aquifer thickness. A groundwater model was previously built for this section of the aquifer and forced by the outputs from a distributed surface hydrology model, to simulate the observed long-term (1992 to 2003) rise in the water table. Uncertainty analysis had shown that independent estimates of the free water content and transmissivity values of the aquifer would facilitate cross-evaluation of the surface-water and groundwater models. MRS results indicate ranges for permeability (K = 1 × 10(-5) to 3 × 10(-4) m/s) and for free water content (w = 5% to 23% m(3) /m(3) ) narrowed by two orders of magnitude (K) and by ～50% (w), respectively, compared to the ranges of permeability and specific yield values previously considered. These shorter parameter ranges result in a reduction in the model's equifinality (whereby multiple combinations of model's parameters are able to represent the same observed piezometric levels), allowing a better constrained estimate to be derived for net aquifer recharge (～22 mm/year).  相似文献   

Mosaic surface storages of a small boreal catchment          下载免费PDF全文

Gwenael E. Carrer  Alain N. Rousseau  André St‐Hilaire  Sylvain Jutras 《水文研究》2015,29(6):845-858

Recent studies have suggested that the hydrologic connectivity of northern headwater catchments is likely controlled by antecedent moisture conditions and land cover patterns. A water storage model (EWS), based on water levels (WLs), specific yield (Sy) and surface elevation (SE) changes, was compared with a basic water budget of a small, boreal, patterned fen (13 ha) during the ice‐free period. Results showed that the EWS model reproduced well storage variations derived from the water budget. These results suggest that storage variations can be properly represented by the fluctuations of WLs when we consider the heterogeneous soil properties. However, storage deviations occurred at the daily scale and could be explained by a lack of information on water retention in unsaturated layers, canopy interceptions and preferential flows. Despite the significant impact of SE changes on the different peatland cover storage budgets (strings and lawns), using Sy mean values had a low impact on storage estimations. This can be explained by the large proportion of pools and high WLs throughout the fen. At the fen scale, high storage in the pools seemed to reduce the Sy difference between strings and lawns. The results of this study provide new insights about the complex hydrological behaviour of northern catchments and allow for conceiving new hydrological modelling perspectives. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献