Hydroclimate variability and long-lead forecasting of rainfall over Thailand by large-scale atmospheric variables     

Nkrintra Singhrattna  Sylvain R. Perret 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(1):26-41

Abstract

The development of statistical relationships between local hydroclimates and large-scale atmospheric variables enhances the understanding of hydroclimate variability. The rainfall in the study basin (the Upper Chao Phraya River Basin, Thailand) is influenced by the Indian Ocean and tropical Pacific Ocean atmospheric circulation. Using correlation analysis and cross-validated multiple regression, the large-scale atmospheric variables, such as temperature, pressure and wind, over given regions are identified. The forecasting models using atmospheric predictors show the capability of long-lead forecasting. The modified k-nearest neighbour (k-nn) model, which is developed using the identified predictors to forecast rainfall, and evaluated by likelihood function, shows a long-lead forecast of monsoon rainfall at 7–9 months. The decreasing performance in forecasting dry-season rainfall is found for both short and long lead times. The developed model also presents better performance in forecasting pre-monsoon season rainfall in dry years compared to wet years, and vice versa for monsoon season rainfall.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz

Citation Singhrattna, N., Babel, M.S. and Perret, S.R., 2012. Hydroclimate variability and long-lead forecasting of rainfall over Thailand by large-scale atmospheric variables. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (1), 26–41.  相似文献   

A strategy for producing refined currents in the Equatorial Atlantic in the context of the search of the AF447 wreckage     

Marie Drévillon  Eric Greiner  Denis Paradis  Christophe Payan  Jean-Michel Lellouche  Guillaume Reffray  Edmée Durand  Stéphane Law-Chune  Sylvain Cailleau 《Ocean Dynamics》2013,63(1):63-82

On the night of 1st June 2009, a Rio-Paris Air France flight (AF447) disappeared in a highly variable and poorly observed part of the western tropical Atlantic Ocean. The first debris was located 5 days after the accident. Several reverse drift computations were conducted in order to define the likely position of the wreckage. Unfortunately, the performance of the operational ocean analyses available in the region of interest ranges from 80 to 100 km of positioning error after 5 days of inverse drift computation. In preparation of the third phase of research of the wreckage at sea, a series of numerical experiments was performed at Météo-France and Mercator Océan in an attempt to better compute the surface currents in the region and for the period of the accident of the AF447 (May and June 2009). Tailored high-resolution atmosphere and ocean reanalyses were first produced respectively at Météo-France and Mercator Océan. Several nested experiments were then performed with a small and flexible ocean model limited to the region of interest. The date of the initial conditions and the type of atmospheric forcing fields were varied in order to produce a small ensemble from which information on the sensitivity to these changes could be derived. Probabilistic and statistical combinations between model and observations were tested and a solution was finally selected by means of a comparison of drift computations with independent surface drift observations.  相似文献   

Assessment of the impact of pools on the water isotopic signature of a boreal patterned peatland          下载免费PDF全文

Gwenael E. Carrer  Alain N. Rousseau  Sylvain Jutras  Maxime Fossey 《水文研究》2016,30(8):1292-1307

Recent studies have shown that boreal peatlands exhibit considerable chemical variability but without clear spatial pattern. This chemical heterogeneity illustrates the complex hydrological behaviour of peatlands, particularly patterned fen. Isotopic, chemical and physical tracers were used to describe the hydrological behaviour of a small boreal headwater catchment (13 ha) during the snow‐free period with a special emphasis on the downstream patterned fen. Results showed that shallow pools were mixed every day during the summer, particularly during nights or discharge periods. Despite large water storage capacities in pools, which should induce large buffer effect, hydrological behaviour of patterned fen is more similar to a piston flow process. This is probably because of the division of the fen into successive small cascading streamflow reservoirs. The consequences were a rapid change of the chemical signature throughout the fen, particularly upstream. A spatial pattern was observed downstream in early summer. The isotopic signature passed from an upstream depleted and homogeneous signature to a progressively enriched downstream signature. However, this pattern was not identified during the wetter period (late summer), probably because the discharge, which dominated the water budget, decreased the surface water residence time and flushed a large proportion of stored surface water. We developed for this patterned fen a conceptual model of the surface flow to explain these particular mixing effects and the implications on the dynamics of the chemical signature. To further our understanding of similar boreal headwater catchments, future work should include the development of a multiple mixed‐reservoir model. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Mixing law versus discharge and electrical conductivity relationships: application to an alpine proglacial stream     

Marc Dzikowski  Sylvain Jobard 《水文研究》2012,26(18):2724-2732

Mixing laws have been used in hydrogeology for decades. In glacial hydrology, they are used to determine the contributions of the different reservoirs supplying the proglacial stream. However, some assumptions about discharge–solute matter and discharge–electrical conductivity (EC) relationships have led to erroneous conclusions. Analysis of a theoretical example indicated a hyperbolic relationship between discharge and solute matter concentration/EC for two reservoirs. We applied this approach to experimental data from the Baounet Glacier (Savoie, France), assuming that the proglacial stream is provided by a combination of watershed groundwater flow (diurnally stable and with high EC) and quick drainage from the glacier (low EC and discharge that change very quickly). Applying mixing laws allowed us to characterise these two flows and to separate the quick flows (glacial ablation and rainfalls). Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Growth anomalies on Acropora cytherea corals     

Irikawa A  Casareto BE  Suzuki Y  Agostini S  Hidaka M  van Woesik R 《Marine pollution bulletin》2011,62(8):1702-1707

This ten-year study examined the morphological, physiological, and ecological characteristics of coral growth anomalies on Acropora cytherea on Amuro Island, Okinawa, Japan. The objectives of the study were to assess whether the growth anomalies, identified as diffuse disruptions on the skeleton: (i) were more prevalent on large colonies than on small colonies, (ii) were more common near the center of the colonies than peripherally, (iii) affected colony growth and mortality, and (iv) affected coral-colony fecundity and photosynthetic capacity. We hypothesized that the growth anomalies were signs of the onset of aging. The growth anomalies were more prevalent on colonies >2 m diameter, and were concentrated near the central (older) portions of the colonies. The growth anomalies were also associated with reduced productivity and dysfunctional gametogenesis. Still, the growth anomalies did not appear to affect colony survival. The contact experiments showed that the growth anomalies were not contagious, and were most likely a sign of aging that was exacerbated by thermal stress.  相似文献   

An operational model to simulate post-accidental radionuclide transfers in Toulon marine area: preliminary development   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

Celine Duffa  Francois Dufois  Sylvain Coudray 《Ocean Dynamics》2011,61(11):1811-1821

As part of its development of post-accident management tools, the French Institute for Radiological Protection and Nuclear Safety is setting up a model to simulate radionuclide dispersion in the Toulon marine area (one of France’s main military ports). The model is based on the MARS 3D code developed by IFREMER. It reproduces hydro-sedimentation phenomena in the Bay of Toulon with a horizontal spatial resolution of 100 m and 30 vertical sigma levels and also factors in radioactive decay and dissolved/particulate distribution of the radionuclides studied. With no tide, the major currents in this area are generated by the wind. The model effectively reproduces the resulting hydrodynamic phenomena, which were measured throughout the summer of 2009 in the channel that links the Little Bay to the Large Bay of Toulon. When the Mistral (wind from the West/Northwest) blows, a surface current quickly appears, which pushes water southwards from the Little Bay, and which is offset by a bottom current (upwellings). When the wind blows from the East, the currents move in the opposite direction, and southeasterly waves, dependent on wind strength and fetch, occur in the Large Bay. Here, we give an example of the simulated dispersion of radionuclides released directly into the surface waters near the Arsenal, demonstrating the constraint relative to dispersion generated by the half-closed configuration of the Little Bay. Sediment in the Little Bay also forms an area where the most highly reactive radionuclides would accumulate, and where the lack of waves has the effect of considerably limiting the phenomena of resuspension.  相似文献   

Failure of dams arranged in series or in complex     

Benjamin Dewals  Sébastien Erpicum  Sylvain Detrembleur  Pierre Archambeau  Michel Pirotton 《Natural Hazards》2011,56(3):917-939

A practical methodology has been developed for predicting flows generated by dam failures or malfunctions in a complex or a series of dams. A twofold approach is followed. First, the waves induced in the downstream reservoirs are computed, as well as hydrodynamic impacts induced on downstream dams and dikes are estimated. Second, the flood wave propagation and the inundation process are simulated in the downstream valley, accounting for possible dam collapse or breaching in cascade. Two complementary flow models are combined: a two-dimensional fully dynamic model and a simplified lumped model. At each stage, the methodology provides guidelines to select the most appropriate model for efficiently computing the induced flows. Both models handle parametric modeling of gradual dam breaching. The procedure also incorporates prediction of breach formation time and final width, as well as sensitivity analysis to compensate for the high uncertainties remaining in the estimation of breach parameters. The applicability of the modeling procedure is demonstrated for a case study involving a 70-m high-gravity concrete dam located upstream of four other dams.  相似文献   

Validation of Forecast Cloud Parameters from Multispectral AIRS Radiances     

Louis Garand  Ovidiu Pancrati  Sylvain Heilliette 《大气与海洋》2013,51(2):121-137

The well-known CO₂ slicing technique which provides retrievals of cloud parameters (effective height and amount) is adapted in light of model validation using multispectral infrared sounders. The technique is applied to both real Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) radiances and to corresponding radiances simulated from global 6 h and 12 h forecasts for the 31 days of July 2008. The forecast model is the one used operationally at the Canadian Meteorological Centre. Radiances are simulated from the Radiative Transfer for the Television and Infrared Observation Satellite (TIROS) Operational Vertical Sounder (RTTOV) model. When compared to model output of cloud parameters, simulated retrievals help us understand systematic biases linked to the retrieval technique. Systematic errors of interest, attributed to forecast cloud parameters, are then more clearly assessed from real retrievals. This is the central idea of this paper. The proposed definition of model cloud top, based on cloud transmittance, corresponds well to the height derived from the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) instrument. These lidar-derived cloud heights, in turn, confirm the nature of the biases produced by the CO₂ slicing technique (e.g., a negative bias increasing with height to about 2 km (approximately 50 hPa) for the highest clouds at 16 km (approximately 100 hPa)). Results suggest that the model has a tendency to produce an excess of low-level clouds below 2 km, compensated for by a deficit from 3 to 6 km. No significant differences are found between 6 h and 12 h forecast monthly fields, an indication that the model has sufficiently spun-up after a few hours. Retrieved global monthly cloud parameter fields are compared to independently derived products available from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) and AIRS standard processing. Significant differences are noted, linked to the different retrieval approaches, input data and resolution. This is further evidence that, for validation purposes, definitions of observed and model parameters must be consistent.  相似文献   

Predictability of the Meteorological Conditions Favourable to Radiative Fog Formation During the 2011 ParisFog Campaign   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Laurent Menut  Sylvain Mailler  Jean-Charles Dupont  Martial Haeffelin  Thierry Elias 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2014,150(2):277-297

Radiative fog formation is a complex phenomenon involving local physical and microphysical processes that take place when particular meteorological conditions occur. This study aims at quantifying the ability of a regional numerical weather model to analyze and forecast the conditions favourable to radiative fog formation at an instrumental site in the Paris area. Data from the ParisFog campaign have been used in order to quantify the meteorological conditions favorable to radiative fog formation (pre-fog conditions) by setting threshold values on the key meteorological variables driving this process: 2-m temperature tendency, 10-m wind speed, 2-m relative humidity and net infrared flux. Data from the ParisFog observation periods of November 2011 indicate that use of these thresholds leads to the detection of 87 % of cases in which radiative fog formation was observed. In order to evaluate the ability of a regional weather model to reproduce adequately these conditions, the same thresholds are applied to meteorological model fields in both analysis and forecast mode. It is shown that, with this simple methodology, the model detects 74 % of the meteorological conditions finally leading to observed radiative fog, and 48 % 2 days in advance. Finally, sensitivity tests are conducted in order to evaluate the impact of using larger time or space windows on the forecasting skills.  相似文献   

Growth of the European abalone (Haliotis tuberculata L.) in situ: Seasonality and ageing using stable oxygen isotopes     

Sabine Roussel  Sylvain Huchette  Jacques Clavier  Laurent Chauvaud 《Journal of Sea Research》2011,65(2):213-218

The ormer, Haliotis tuberculata is the only European abalone species commercially exploited. The determination of growth and age in the wild is an important tool for fisheries and aquaculture management. However, the ageing technique used in the past in the field is unreliable. The stable oxygen isotope composition (¹⁸O/¹⁶O) of the shell depends on the temperature and oxygen isotope composition of the ambient sea water. The stable oxygen isotope technique, developed to study paleoclimatological changes in shellfish, was applied to three H. tuberculata specimens collected in north-west Brittany. For the specimens collected, the oxygen isotope ratios of the shell reflected the seasonal cycle in the temperature. From winter-to-winter cycles, estimates of the age and the annual growth increment, ranging from 13 to 55 mm per year were obtained. This study shows that stable oxygen isotopes can be a reliable tool for ageing and growth studies of this abalone species in the wild, and for validating other estimates.  相似文献