GDP and employment effects of policies to close the 2020 emissions gap     

Terry Barker  Eva Alexandri  Jean-Francois Mercure  Yuki Ogawa  Hector Pollitt 《Climate Policy》2016,16(4):393-414

Four policies might close the gap between the global GHG emissions expected for 2020 on the basis of current (2013) policies and the reduced emissions that will be needed if the long-term global temperature increase can be kept below the 2 °C internationally agreed limit. The four policies are (1) specific energy efficiency measures, (2) closure of the least-efficient coal-fired power plants, (3) minimizing methane emissions from upstream oil and gas production, and (4) accelerating the (partial) phase-out of subsidies to fossil-fuel consumption. In this article we test the hypothesis of the International Energy Agency (IEA) that these policies will not result in a loss of gross domestic product (GDP) and we estimate their employment effects using the E3MG global macro-econometric model. Using a set of scenarios we assess each policy individually and then consider the outcomes if all four policies were implemented simultaneously. We find that the policies are insufficient to close the emissions gap, with an overall emission reduction that is 30% less than that found by the IEA. World GDP is 0.5% higher in 2020, with about 6 million net jobs created by 2020 and unemployment reduced.

Policy relevance

The gap between GHG emissions expected under the Copenhagen and Cancun Agreements and that needed for emissions trajectories to have a reasonable chance of reaching the 2 °C target requires additional policies if it is to be closed. This article uses a global simulation model E3MG to analyse a set of policies proposed by the IEA to close the gap and assesses their macroeconomic effects as well as their feasibility in closing the gap. It complements the IEA assessment by estimating the GDP and employment implications separately by the different policies year by year to 2020, by major industries, and by 21 world regions.  相似文献   

Trace elements and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) concentrations in deep Gulf of Mexico sediments     

Terry L. Wade  Yousra Soliman  Stephen T. Sweet  Gary A. Wolff  Bobby J. Presley 《Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography》2008,55(24-26):2585

The concentrations of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and trace elements were determined for surface (top 2 cm) sediment samples collected during the deep Gulf of Mexico benthos (DGoMB) study .These elements and compounds are known to be toxic to organisms at high concentrations and may affect biological communities. There is no indication of major anthropogenic input of the elements Be, Co, Cr, Fe, Si, Tl, V, K, Mg, Ca, Sr and Zn, based on normalization to Al. The concentrations of these metals in the sediment are a function of the relative amounts of trace-metal-rich Mississippi River-derived silicate material and trace-metal-poor plankton-derived carbonate. This is not true for the elements Ba, Ni, Pb, Cd, As, Cu and Mn, whose concentrations show considerable scatter when normalized to Al and a general enrichment. On a normalized basis, Mn is enriched 5–10 fold, Cu and Ni 2–3 fold and Pb 2 fold over Mississippi River-derived material. These enrichments are likely the result of remobilization of metals from depths in the sediment column where reducing conditions exist. The Ba concentrations at selected sites are higher than those of average clay-rich sediments, but are typical of sediments from near oil well platforms in the northern Gulf of Mexico. In the case of Ba, it seems likely that the enrichments, as high as a factor of 10, are due to disposal of oil well drilling mud. The Ba-enriched samples are from the three shallowest water sites in the Mississippi Trough (sites MT1, 2 and 3) and from site C1 and WC5. All are in an area of intense petroleum exploration and development. PAH concentrations are also elevated at MT1, MT3 and C1. The total PAH concentration ranged from not detected (ND) to 1033 ng/g with a mean of 140 ng/g. Even at the sites most enriched in PAHs and trace elements, the concentrations are not at the levels expected to adversely affect the biota. However, these predicted non-effects are based on research using mostly near-shore estuarine species, not on the indigenous species at the sampling sites.  相似文献   

The frictional behavior of lizardite and antigorite serpentinites: Experiments,constitutive models,and implications for natural faults   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Linda A. Reinen  John D. Weeks  Terry E. Tullis 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1994,143(1-3):317-358

Laboratory studies of the frictional behavior of rocks can provide important information about the strength and sliding stability of natural faults. We have conducted friction experiments on antigorite and lizardite serpentinites, rocks common to both continental and oceanic crustal faults. We conducted both velocity-step tests and timed-hold tests on bare surfaces and gouge layers of serpentinite at room temperature. We find that the coefficient of friction of lizardite serpentinite is quite low (0.15–0.35) and could explain the apparent low stresses observed on crustal transform faults, while that of antigorite serpentinite is comparable to other crustal rocks (0.50–0.85). The frictional behavior of both types of serpentinite is well described by a two-mechanism model combining state-variable-dominated behavior at high slip velocities and flow-dominated behavior at low velocities. The two-mechanism model is supported by data from velocity-step tests and timed-hold tests. The low velocity behavior of serpentinite is strongly rate strengthening and should result in stable fault creep on natural faults containing either antigorite or lizardite serpentinite.  相似文献   

Tidal river sediments in the Washington,D.C. area. III. Biological effects associated with sediment contamination     

Christian E. Schlekat  Beth L. McGee  Eli Reinharz  David J. Velinsky  Terry L. Wade 《Estuaries and Coasts》1994,17(2):334-344

Sediment toxicity and benthic macroinvertebrate community structure were measured as one component of a study cohceived to determine the distribution and effect of sediment contamination in tidal freshwater portions of the Potomac and Anacostia rivers in the Washington, D.C., area. Samples were collected at 15 sites. Analyses included a partial life cycle (28 d) whole sediment test using the amphipod Hyalella azteca (Talitridae) and an assessment of benthic community structure. Survival and growth (as estimated by amphipod length) were experimental endopoints for the toxicity test. Significant mortality was observed in 5 of 10 sites in the lower Anacostia River basin and at the main channel Potomac River site. Sublethal toxicity, as measured by inhibition of amphipod growth, was not observed. Toxicity test results were in general agreement with synoptically measured sediment contaminant concentrations. Porewater total ammonia (NH₃+NH₄ ⁺) appears to be responsible for the toxicity of sediments from the Potomac River, while correlation analysis and simultaneously extracted metals: acid volatile sulfide (SEM∶AVS) results suggest that the toxicity associated with Anacostia River sediments was due to organic compounds. Twenty-eight macroinvertebrate taxa were identified among all sites, with richness varying from 5 to 17 taxa per site. Groups of benthic assemblages identified by group-average cluster analysis exhibited variable agreement with sediment chemical and sediment toxicity results. Integration of toxicological, chemical, and ecological components suggests that adverse environmental effects manifest in the lower Anacostia River benthos result from chemical contamination of sediment.  相似文献   

Focal mechanisms of large earthquakes in the South Island of New Zealand: implications for the accommodation of Pacific-Australia plate motion     

Helen Anderson  Terry Webb  James Jackson 《Geophysical Journal International》1993,115(3):1032-1054

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Assessing Pesticide Contamination to Ground Water: A Rapid Approach   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Majid Ehteshami  Richard C. Peralta  Hubert Eisele  Howard Deer  Terry Tindall 《Ground water》1991,29(6):862-868

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The structure, mass and interactions of the hydrothermal plumes at 26°N on the Mid-Atlantic Ridge     

Terry A. Nelsen  Evan B. Forde 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》1991,106(1-4)

Water-column surveys by combined nephelometer/CTD (NCTD) tows contributed to the 1985 discovery of the first black smokers on the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. Subsequent regional water-column mapping has helped define the extent, mass and interactions of the suspended particulate matter phase (SPM) of the hydrothermal plumes emanating from the known and other nearby sources. The results of 29 NCTD cast/tows, covering 25–30 km² of ridge segment, indicate the presence of as many as two additional sources based on SPM concentration gradients and plume-top doming over source areas. Plume doming, documented here for the first time from field observations, conforms strikingly with laboratory experiments and can serve as a marker for source field location. A comparison of the plumes' SPM with potential temperature and salinity distributions indicates close correlation in water-column anomaly patterns for each, confirming modification of the regional potential temperature and salinity structure by hydrothermal plumes, which is expressed by wide separation and sloping of isotherms and isohalines.  相似文献   

Compositional changes of minerals associated with dynamic recrystallizatin     

Richard A. Yund  Jan Tullis 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》1991,108(3):346-355

The rate of compositional and isotopic exchange between minerals may be enhanced significantly if the rock is deformed simultaneously. The enhanced exchange rate may result from a reduction in grain size (shorter distance for volume diffusion), dissolution and growth of grains by diffusion creep (pressure solution), or the movement of high-angle grain boundaries through strained grains during recrystallization in the dislocation creep regime. The migration of high-angle grain boundaries provides high diffusivity paths for the rapid exchange of components during recrystallization. The operation of the latter process has been demonstrated by deforming aggregates consisting of two plagioclases (An₁ and An₇₉) at 900°C, 1 GPa confining pressure, and a strain rate of ∼2x10^-6s^-1. The polygonal, recrystallized grains were analyzed using an analytical transmission electron microscope and have a variable but often intermediate composition. At the conditions of these experiments, the volume interdiffusion rate of NaSi/CaAl is too slow to produce any observable chemical change, and microstructural-chemical relations indicate that the contribution from diffusion creep was insignificant except for initially fine-grained (2–10 μm) aggregates. These results indicate that strain-induced recrystallization can be an effective mechanism for enhancing the kinetics of metamorphic reactions and for resetting the isotope systematics of minerals such as feldspars, pyroxenes, and amphiboles.  相似文献   

The role of salt in fold-and-thrust belts     

Dan M. Davis  Terry Engelder 《Tectonophysics》1985,119(1-4)

The style of deformation in thin-skinned fold-and-thrust belts is critically dependent upon the resistance to sliding along the detachment between the mass of deforming sediments and the underlying rocks. Evaporites can provide an extremely weak horizon within which a basal detachment can form and along which only a relatively small shear traction can be supported. Fold-and-thrust belts that form atop a salt layer, such as the Appalachian Plateau, the Franklin Mountains in northwestern Canada, and the Jura of the Alps, among others, share several readily observable characteristics. As predicted by a simple mechanical model for fold-and-thrust belts, a detachment in salt permits a thrust belt to have an extremely narrow cross-sectional taper. In addition, predicted orientations of the principal stress axes over a salt décollement are consistent with the commonly observed lack of a consistently dominant vergence direction of structures within the thrust belt. Other common attributes of salt-basal thin-skinned deformation include the presence of several widely but regularly spaced folds and abrupt changes in deformational style at the edge of the salt basin.  相似文献   

The stability and behavior of a frictional system with a two state variable constitutive law     

Michael L. Blanpied  Terry E. Tullis 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1986,124(3):415-444

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