Effective and Equitable Dissemination of Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate Forecasts: Policy Implications from the Peruvian Fishery during El Niño 1997–98     

Kenneth Broad  Alexander S. P. Pfaff  Michael H. Glantz 《Climatic change》2002,54(4):415-438

The development of seasonal-to-interannual climate predictions has spurred widespread claims that the dissemination of such forecasts will yield benefits for society. Based on the use as well as non-use of forecasts in the Peruvian fishery during the 1997–98 El Niño event, weidentify: (1) potential constraints on the realization of benefits, such aslimited access to and understanding of information, and unintended reactions; (2) theneed for an appropriately detailed definition of societal benefit, considering whose welfare counts as a benefit among groups such as labor, industry, consumers, citizens of different regions, and future generations.We argue that consideration of who benefits, and an understanding of potential socioeconomic constraints and how they might be addressed, should be brought to bear on forecast dissemination choices. We conclude with examples of relevant dissemination choices made using this process.  相似文献   

Determination of Area-Averaged Water Vapour Fluxes with Large Aperture and Radio Wave Scintillometers over a Heterogeneous Surface – Flevoland Field Experiment     

W. M. L. Meijninger  A. E. Green  O. K. Hartogensis  W. Kohsiek  J. C. B. Hoedjes  R. M. Zuurbier  H. A. R. De Bruin 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2002,105(1):63-83

A large aperture scintillometer (LAS) andradio wave scintillometer (RWS)were installed over a heterogeneous areato test the applicability of the scintillation method.The heterogeneity in the area, whichconsisted of many plots, was mainly caused bydifferences in thermal properties ofthe crops; the variations in theaerodynamic roughness lengthwere small. The water vapour fluxesderived from the combined LAS-RWSsystem, also known as the two-wavelengthmethod, agreed fairly well with the aggregatedwater vapour fluxes derived from in-situeddy covariance measurements. The water vapourfluxes derived from a stand-alone LASare also presented. It was found that a single LASand an estimate of the area averagedavailable energy (using a simple parameterisationscheme) can provide also reasonablearea-averaged water vapour fluxes.  相似文献   

On the mechanism of winter cyclogenesis in relation to vertical axis tilt     

M. Abdel Wahab  H. Abdel Basset  A. M. Lasheen 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2002,81(1-2):103-127

Summary ?This work is concerned with the behavior of the vertical trough axis tilt during the development of a Mediterranean cyclone. The period covering stages of the development of the depression is from 1200 UTC 18 January to 1200 UTC 25 January 1981. Two procedures have been used to illustrate the behavior of the vertical axis tilt with the development of our case study. In the first direct procedure we trace the centers of the cyclone for each level for each day and determine its longitude. In the second indirect procedure we compute the values and signs of the product of the perturbation of temperature and meridional velocity over the computational domain. The energetics of the depression is studied and the partition of available potential energy and kinetic energy into zonal and eddy component is adopted. The energy contents and their changes in different atmospheric levels are discussed in the course of the cyclone’s development. Received April 27, 2001; Revised December 12, 2001  相似文献   

Electrical aerosol spectrometer of Tartu University     

H. Tammet  A. Mirme  E. Tamm   《Atmospheric Research》2002,62(3-4)

The electrical aerosol spectrometer (EAS) of the parallel measuring principle at Tartu University is an efficient instrument for rapid measurement of the unstable size spectrum of aerosol particles. The measuring range from 10 nm to 10 μm is achieved by simultaneously using a pair of differential mobility analyzers with two different particle chargers. The particle spectrum is calculated and measurement errors are estimated in real time by using a least-squares method. Experimental calibration ensures reliability of measurement. The instrument is well suited for continuous monitoring of atmospheric aerosol.  相似文献   

Advective, orographic and radiation fog in the Tarapacá region, Chile     

P. Cereceda  P. Osses  H. Larrain  M. Farías  M. Lagos  R. Pinto  R. S. Schemenauer 《Atmospheric Research》2002,64(1-4)

A project in northern Chile was undertaken to determine the origin and behaviour of fog in the coastal and inland locations of the Tarapacá Region. In the Pampa del Tamarugal, 50 km from the sea, conditions exist for the formation of radiation fog. Advective fog has been studied on the coast and orographic fog was observed at a few coastal sites near mountain ranges with elevations above 1000 m. Fog water collected by two standard fog collectors (SFC) for 3 1/2 years showed an average flux of 8.5 l m⁻² day⁻¹ on the coast and 1.1 l m⁻² day⁻¹ inland 12 km from the coastline. On only a few days in 10 months was water collected at the inland site of Pampa del Tamarugal. GOES satellite images are shown to illustrate the pattern of formation of the stratocumuli cloud over the sea, its approach to the coastline, the entrance of fog by corridors through the coastal range and the presence of radiation fog inland. The results are important for the understanding of fog formation and dissipation along the coastal mountain range and for the recognition of potential sites for the installation of fog water collectors, which can be used as a water source in the Atacama Desert. The results also provide vital information for use in the preservation of the unique ecosystems of the most arid desert of the world.  相似文献   

沐川太平砂岩型铼钼（饿）矿点的地质特征和矿化时代   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

曹志敏  骆耀南等 《地质学报》2002,76(1):95-99

四川沐川县民主-太平-带含钼砂岩为一新矿化类型——沉积砂岩型铼钼（锇）矿点。X-射线粉晶衍射分析结果表明其中微-细晶鳞片状含钼矿物为晶质辉钼矿；高精度质谱分析发现辉钼矿中分散元素Re和铂族元素Os含量很高，具有重要的综合利用价值；高精度Re-Os同位素测年证明辉钼矿形成年龄与含矿的中生代红物学和矿床学均具有重要的理论意义和应用价值。  相似文献   

Optimal design of passive energy dissipation systems based on H∞ and H2 performances     

J. N. Yang  S. Lin  J‐H. Kim  A. K. Agrawal 《地震工程与结构动力学》2002,31(4):921-936

Passive energy dissipation devices (EDDs), such as viscous dampers, viscoelastic dampers, etc., have been used to effectively reduce the dynamic response of civil infrastructures, such as buildings and bridges, subject to earthquakes and strong winds. The design of these passive energy dissipation devices (EDDs) involves the determination of the optimal locations and the corresponding capacities. In this paper, we present two optimal design methodologies for passive EDDs based on active control theories, including H_∞ and H₂ performances, respectively. The optimal design methodologies presented are capable of determining the optimal locations and the corresponding capacities of EDDs. Emphasis is placed on the application of linear matrix inequality (LMI) for the effective design of passive EDDs using the popular MATLAB toolboxes. One important advantage of the proposed approaches is that the computation of the structural response is not needed in the design process. The proposed optimal design methodologies have been applied to: (i) a 10‐storey building and a 24‐storey building both subject to earthquake excitations, and (ii) a 76‐storey wind‐excited benchmark building, to demonstrate the advantages of the proposed design methodologies over the conventional equal capacity design. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Study of a semi‐active stiffness damper under various earthquake inputs     

S. L. Djajakesukma  B. Samali  H. Nguyen 《地震工程与结构动力学》2002,31(10):1757-1776

Semi‐active stiffness damper (SASD) is one of many semi‐active control systems with the capability to mitigate the dynamic response using only a small amount of external power. The system consists of a hydraulic damper connected to the bracing frame in a selected story unit. In this paper, study of a SASD in two building models of five‐stories under four benchmark earthquake records is reported. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the effectiveness of the control system against structure type and varying earthquake inputs. Various control laws are chosen to work with SASD, such as: resetting control, switching control, linear quadratic regulator (LQR) and modified LQR, and the results are compared with no control and passive control cases. Numerical results show that the use of a SASD is effective in reducing seismic responses. Control effectiveness is dependent on the type of structure and earthquake excitation. Passive control is less effective than other control cases as expected. Resetting control, switching control and LQR generally perform similarly in response reduction. While modified LQR is more efficient and robust compared with other control algorithms. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Probabilistic analysis of peak response of MDOF systems with uncertain PSD function     

H. P. Hong  S. S. Wang 《地震工程与结构动力学》2002,31(9):1719-1733

The use of uniform hazard spectra which have the same probability of exceedance at different frequencies has been proposed for the future version of the National Building Code of Canada. Commonly used combination rules to estimate the peak responses of multi‐degree‐of‐freedom (MDOF) systems are the square root of sum of squares rule and the complete quadratic combination rule. However, the probability that the peak response of a MDOF system exceeds the one estimated by using these rules with the peak modal responses from the uniform hazard spectra cannot be inferred directly. The assessment of the probability of exceedance of the peak response of MDOF systems is presented by considering that the uncertainty in seismic excitation due to all potential earthquakes can be lumped in the power spectral density function of the ground acceleration with uncertain model parameters. This probability is evaluated based on the random vibration of linear systems and the first‐order reliability method. It is found that the under‐ or over‐estimations are less than about 5 or 10% if the modal contributions are not within 10–90% of, or not within 20–80% of, the absolute sum of the effective modal peak responses, respectively. Otherwise, severe under‐ or over‐estimation could result. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Geomorphological, geochemical and geo-environmental aspects of karstification in the urban areas of Kerman city, southeastern, Iran     

H. Atapour  A. Aftabi 《Environmental Geology》2002,42(7):783-792

Kerman city has a semiarid-arid climate with an average annual precipitation of about 158 mm. The area is underlain by soluble subsoil and alluvial deposits, overlying highly fractured Cretaceous limestones. Geo-environmental studies indicate that both paleokarst and active karst features are developed in the area. The paleokarsts were developed in the Upper Cretaceous limestone during the cold, humid periods of Post Cretaceous and probably Early Quaternary time and include honeycombs, solution flutes, rillenkarren, caverns, and solution collapse dolines. Active karst landforms occur by combined piping-induced and limestone solution at depth in subsoils, and alluvial deposits and bajada that overly potent karstic limestones and cover subsidence sinkholes and subjacent alluvial karst collapse dolines. Many factors, such as soluble compounds (salt and gypsum), desiccation cracks, and Qanat (dug water wells), could contribute to the development of karstic landforms. The most immediate cause for active karst landforms is considered to be the drawdown of the water table in the area. There is an increasing demand for groundwater consumption to irrigate pistachio fields. Excessive pumping of the groundwater lowers the water table about 80 cm per year. This rate of drawdown accelerates land subsidence (about 6 cm per year), creates circular patterns of fractures in the ground and in buildings, disrupts agricultural work and urbanization projects, and tilts foundations. These geohazards indicate that ground sinking and karstification are in progress in the alluvial deposits and underlying limestones. The disturbance and expense caused by the geohazards could be mitigated by the application of overhead sprinkler irrigation for pistachio fields or by planting less thirsty plants.  相似文献