Uncertainty Estimation in One‐Dimensional Heat Transport Model for Heterogeneous Porous Medium     

Ching‐Min Chang  Hund‐Der Yeh 《Ground water》2014,52(3):326-331

In many practical applications, the rates for ground water recharge and discharge are determined based on the analytical solution developed by Bredehoeft and Papadopulos (1965) to the one‐dimensional steady‐state heat transport equation. Groundwater flow processes are affected by the heterogeneity of subsurface systems; yet, the details of which cannot be anticipated precisely. There exists a great deal of uncertainty (variability) associated with the application of Bredehoeft and Papadopulos' solution (1965) to the field‐scale heat transport problems. However, the quantification of uncertainty involved in such application has so far not been addressed, which is the objective of this wok. In addition, the influence of the statistical properties of log hydraulic conductivity field on the variability in temperature field in a heterogeneous aquifer is also investigated. The results of the analysis demonstrate that the variability (or uncertainty) in the temperature field increases with the correlation scale of the log hydraulic conductivity covariance function and the variability of temperature field also depends positively on the position.  相似文献   

Integration of neural networks and cellular automata for urban planning     

AnthonyGar-onYeh LIXia 《地球空间信息科学学报》2004,7(1):6-13

This paper presents a new type of cellular automata (CA) model for the simulation of alternative land development using neural networks for urban planning. CA models can be regarded as a planning tool because they can generate alternative urban growth. Alternative development patterns can be formed by using different sets of parameter values in CA simulation. A critical issue is how to define parameter values for realistic and idealized simulation. This paper demonstrates that neural networks can simplify CA models but generate more plausible results. The simulation is based on a simple three-layer network with an output neuron to generate conversion probability. No transition rules are required for the simulation. Parameter values are automatically obtained from the training of network by using satellite remote sensing data. Original training data can be assessed and modified according to planning objectives. Alternative urban patterns can be easily formulated by using the modified training data sets rather than changing the model.  相似文献   

Worst-Case GPS Scintillations on the Ground Estimated from Radio Occultation Observations of FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC During 2007–2014     

J. Y. Liu  S. P. Chen  W. H. Yeh  H. F. Tsai  P. K. Rajesh 《Surveys in Geophysics》2016,37(4):791-809

The FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC (F3/C) satellite probes the S4 scintillation index profile of GPS signals by using the radio occultation (RO) technique. In this study, for practical use on the Earth’s surface, a method is developed to convert and integrate the probed RO S4 index, so obtaining the scintillation on the ground. To estimate the worst case, the maximum value on each profile probed by F3/C, which is termed S4max, is isolated. The isolated data are further used to construct the global three-dimensional distributions of S4max for various local times, seasons, solar activities, and locations. The converted S4max for the first time estimates the global distribution of ionospheric scintillations in the GPS L1 band C/A code signal on the ground. The results show that the worst-case scintillations appear within the low-latitude region of ±30°N, peaking around ±20°N magnetic latitude; they begin at 1900 MLT, reach their maximum at 2100 MLT, and vanish by about 0200–0300 MLT. The most pronounced low-latitude scintillation occurs over the South American and African sectors.  相似文献   

Stochastic modeling of variations in stream flow discharge induced by random spatiotemporal fluctuations in lateral inflow rate     

Ching-Min Chang  Hund-Der Yeh 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2016,30(6):1635-1640

Due to natural heterogeneity in runoff processes, the analysis of response of stream channels to the variation of lateral inflow is therefore viewed in terms of stochastic spatiotemporal processes. Based on the representation theorem, a closed-form expression is derived to describe the spectral response characteristic of stream subject to spatiotemporal fluctuations in lateral inflow. It provides a basis for evaluating the induced discharge variability in stream channels. It is found that the evolutionary power spectrum of the stream flow discharge process and therefore the variance is increased with the distance from the upstream boundary and the characteristic length scale of the lateral inflow process. Flow discharge prediction in the downstream region has a high degree of uncertainty by solving the deterministic partial differential equation.  相似文献   

Discrete Element Modeling of Stick-Slip Instability and Induced Microseismicity     

Cyrus Khazaei  Jim Hazzard  Rick Chalaturnyk 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2016,173(3):775-794

Using Particle Flow Code, a discrete element model is presented in this paper that allows direct modeling of stick-slip behavior in pre-existing weak planes such as joints, beddings, and faults. The model is used to simulate a biaxial sliding experiment from literature on a saw-cut specimen of Sierra granite with a single fault. The fault is represented by the smooth-joint contact model. Also, an algorithm is developed to record the stick-slip induced microseismic events along the fault. Once the results compared well with laboratory data, a parametric study was conducted to investigate the evolution of the model’s behavior due to varying factors such as resolution of the model, particle elasticity, fault coefficient of friction, fault stiffness, and normal stress. The results show a decrease in shear strength of the fault in the models with smaller particles, smaller coefficient of friction of the fault, harder fault surroundings, softer faults, and smaller normal stress on the fault. Also, a higher rate of displacement was observed for conditions resulting in smaller shear strength. An increase in b-values was observed by increasing the resolution or decreasing the normal stress on the fault, while b-values were not sensitive to changes in elasticity of the fault or its surrounding region. A larger number of recorded events were observed for the models with finer particles, smaller coefficient of friction of the fault, harder fault surroundings, harder fault, and smaller normal stress on the fault. The results suggest that it is possible for the two ends of a fault to be still while there are patches along the fault undergoing stick-slips. Such local stick-slips seem to provide a softer surrounding for their neighbor patches facilitating their subsequent stick-slips.  相似文献   

A semi-analytical solution based on a numerical solution of the solute transport of a conservative and nonreactive tracer     

Zhang J  Clare J  Guo J 《Ground water》2012,50(4):633-638

In the evaluation of potential risk from ingestion of groundwater near an impacted site, numerical simulation of fate and transport processes of chemicals of concern is often required. If there is potential concern about multiple chemicals, numerical simulation of each chemical separately is often needed. In this paper, a semi-analytical solution is presented based on a numerical solution of the transport of a conservative and nonreactive tracer. When multiple chemicals undergoing sorption and first-order degradation need to be modeled, we can avoid performing individual numerical simulations for each chemical by applying the semi-analytical solution. Numerical test runs were conducted to verify the semi-analytical solution; simulation results reveal that the concentrations derived from the semi-analytical solution are identical to those derived from the individual numerical fate and transport model simulations. The semi-analytical solution requires steady-state flow conditions, no continuing contaminant source, and similar initial source concentration distributions.  相似文献   

Parameter Estimation/Sensitivity Analysis for an Aquifer Test with Skin Effect     

by Yen-Ju Chen  and Hund-Der Yeh 《Ground water》2009,47(2):287-299

Aquifer information carried by aquifer test data may be affected by the presence of a finite thickness skin around the wellbore. The mathematical treatment for an aquifer accounting for the skin zone can be characterized by five parameters, that is, the outer radius of the skin zone and the transmissivity and storativity for each of the skin and aquifer zones. Sensitivity analysis was performed to examine the ground water flow behavior in the skin and aquifer zones in terms of the constant-head test (CHT) data. The simulated annealing procedure was applied to simultaneously determine the skin and aquifer parameters from the analysis of CHT data. Toward the previously mentioned goals, four suites of CHT data were analyzed in this article. The analyses of wellbore flow rate at the test well and the specific drawdown at the observation well gave accurate estimates for the skin and aquifer parameters, respectively. Only the skin thickness and both the skin and the aquifer diffusivities could be accurately estimated from the analysis of drawdown data in the observation well. The estimates for all skin and aquifer parameters from the composite analysis of flow rate and drawdown data were the most accurate. The results of sensitivity analyses and parameter estimations provide instructive references in the analysis of the skin-affected CHT data.  相似文献   

Suspended sediment transport and deposition over a dune: Río Paraná, Argentina     

Ray Kostaschuk  Dan Shugar  Jim Best  Dan Parsons  Stuart Lane  Rich Hardy  Oscar Orfeo 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2009,34(12):1605-1611

Field data from the Rio Paraná, Argentina, are used to examine patterns of suspended sediment transport over a sand dune. Measurements of three‐dimensional velocity are made with an acoustic Doppler current profiler whilst suspended sediment concentration and particle size have been quantified using a laser in situ sediment scattering transmissometer. Suspended sediment concentration and streamwise and vertical sediment flux are highest close to the bed, with an upward vertical flux over the stoss side of the dune and downward flux over the lee side. Suspended sediment concentrations are higher over the crest compared with the trough and suspended sediment is coarsest near the bed. About 17% of the suspended‐load transported over the crest is deposited in the lee side before it reaches the trough. Most of this deposited sand is coarser sediment that originates close to the bed over the crest, a result consistent with simulations based on the model of Mohrig and Smith (Water Resources Research 1996; 32: 3207–3217) for the excursion lengths of sediment dispersed in the lee side of a dune. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

The value of high-resolution nutrient monitoring: A case study of the River Frome, Dorset, UK   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Michael J. Bowes  Jim T. Smith  Colin Neal 《Journal of Hydrology》2009,378(1-2):82-96

The River Frome was sampled at sub-daily sampling interval, with additional storm sampling, through an annual cycle. Samples were analysed for total phosphorus (TP), soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP), total oxidisable nitrogen (TON) and dissolved reactive silicon (Si). The resulting data set was artificially decimated to mimic sampling frequencies from 12 h to monthly time interval. Monthly sampling interval resulted in significant errors in the estimated annual TP and SRP load of up to 35% and 28% respectively, and the resulting data sets were insufficient to observe peaks in P concentration in response to storm events. Weekly sampling reduced the maximum percentage errors in annual load estimate to 15.4% and 6.5%. TON and silicon concentrations were less variable with changing river flow, and monthly sampling was sufficient to predict annual load estimates to within 10%. However, to investigate within-river nutrient dynamics and behaviour, it is suggested that a weekly sampling interval would be the minimum frequency required for TON and Si studies, and daily sampling would be a minimum requirement to adequately investigate phosphorus dynamics. The loss in nutrient-concentration signal due to reduced sampling interval is presented. Hysteresis in the nutrient concentration/flow relationships for all 32 storm events during the study period were modelled and seasonal patterns discussed to infer nutrient sources and behaviour. The high-resolution monitoring in this study identified, for the first time, major peaks in phosphorus concentration in winter that coincide with sudden falls in air temperature, and was associated with biofilm breakdown. This study has shown that to understand complex catchment nutrient processes, accurately quantify nutrient exports from catchments, and observe changes in water quality as a result of nutrient mitigation efforts over time, it is vital that the newly emerging field-based automated sampler/analyzer technologies begin to be deployed, to allow for routine high-resolution monitoring of our rivers in the future.  相似文献   

A New Method for Laboratory Estimation of the Transverse Dispersion Coefficient     

Comment by Hund-Der Yeh  Shaw-Yang Yang 《Ground water》2010,48(1):16-17

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