Tropical Cyclone Size Change under Ocean Warming and Associated Responses of Tropical Cyclone Destructiveness: Idealized Experiments     

Zanmin Xu  Yuan Sun  Tim Li  Zhong Zhong  Jia Liu  Chen Ma 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2020,34(1):163-175

The power dissipation index (PDI), which is defined as the sum of the cube of tropical cyclone (TC) maximum wind speed during TC lifetime, is widely used to estimate the TC destructive potential. However, due to the lack of high-resolution observations, little attention has been paid to the contribution of TC size change to TC destructive potential in response to ocean warming. In this study, sensitivity experiments are performed by using the high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to investigate the responses of TC size and TC destructive potential to prescribed sea surface temperature (SST) increase under the present climate condition. The results show that TC size increases with the ocean warming. Possible reasons for TC size change are investigated with a focus on the outer air-sea moisture difference (ASMD). As SST increases, ASMD in the outer zone of the TC is larger than that in the inner zone, which increases the surface entropy flux (SEF) of the outer zone. This change in the radial distribution of SEF causes the increase of tangential wind in the outer zone, which further increases SEF, resulting in a positive feedback between outer-zone SEF and outer-zone tangential wind. This feedback leads to the increase of the radius of gale-force wind, leading to the expansion of TC size. Moreover, to estimate the contribution of TC size change to TC destructiveness, we calculate TC size-dependent destructive potential (PDS) as the storm size information is available in the model outputs, as well as PDI that does not consider the effect of TC size change. We find that PDS increases exponentially as SST increases from 1 to 4°C, while PDI increases linearly; hence the former is soon much greater than the latter. This suggests that the growth effect of TC size cannot be ignored in estimating destructiveness under ocean warming.  相似文献   

Madden-Julian Oscillation: Its Discovery,Dynamics, and Impact on East Asia   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Tim Li  Jian Ling  Pang-Chi Hsu 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2020,34(1):20-42

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Seasonal and Sub-Seasonal Circulation Anomalies Associated with Persistent Rainy Days in 2018/2019 Winter in Shanghai,China     

Wei Wang  Fei Xin  Xiao Pan  Ying Zhang  Tim Li 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2020,34(2):304-314

Shanghai experienced the longest rainy days in 2018/2019 winter since 1988. The physical cause of such an unusual climate condition was investigated through the diagnosis of observational data. From a seasonal perspective, a long persistent rainy winter was often associated with an El Niño condition in the equatorial Pacific. This abnormal oceanic condition induces a remote teleconnection pattern with pronounced low-level southerly anomalies over East China. The wind anomalies transported moisture from tropical oceans and caused persistent rainfall in East Asia. Meanwhile, the local rainfall time series exhibited a strong quasi-biweekly oscillation (QBWO). Three persistent rainy events were identified in the 2018/2019 winter and they all occurred during the active phase of the QBWO. The first two events were associated with a low pressure anomaly west of Shanghai. Southerly anomalies associated with the low pressure system advected high mean moisture into central eastern China, leading to the persistent rainfall there. The third event was associated with a high pressure anomaly in lower troposphere to the east of Shanghai, which induced anomalous southerlies to its west, favoring the occurrence of rainfall in Shanghai. The result suggests the importance of high-frequency variability in affecting seasonal rainfall anomalies.  相似文献   

Behaviour of the winter North Atlantic eddy-driven jet stream in the CMIP3 integrations   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Abdel Hannachi  Elizabeth A. Barnes  Tim Woollings 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(3-4):995-1007

A systematic analysis of the winter North Atlantic eddy-driven jet stream latitude and wind speed from 52 model integrations, taken from the coupled model intercomparison project phase 3, is carried out and compared to results obtained from the ERA-40 reanalyses. We consider here a control simulation, twentieth century simulation, and two time periods (2046–2065 and 2081–2100) from a twenty-first century, high-emission A2 forced simulation. The jet wind speed seasonality is found to be similar between the twentieth century simulations and the ERA-40 reanalyses and also between the control and forced simulations although nearly half of the models overestimate the amplitude of the seasonal cycle. A systematic equatorward bias of the models jet latitude seasonality, by up to 7°, is observed, and models additionally overestimate the seasonal cycle of jet latitude about the mean, with the majority of the models showing equatorward and poleward biases during the cold and warm seasons respectively. A main finding of this work is that no GCM under any forcing scenario considered here is able to simulate the trimodal behaviour of the observed jet latitude distribution. The models suffer from serious problems in the structure of jet variability, rather than just quantitiative errors in the statistical moments.  相似文献   

The Oxford Principles     

Steve Rayner  Clare Heyward  Tim Kruger  Nick Pidgeon  Catherine Redgwell  Julian Savulescu 《Climatic change》2013,121(3):499-512

Scientific momentum is increasing behind efforts to develop geoengineering options, but it is widely acknowledged that the challenges of geoengineering are as much political and social as they are technical. Legislators are looking for guidance on the governance of geoengineering research and possible deployment. The Oxford Principles are five high-level principles for geoengineering governance. This article explains their intended function and the core societal values which they attempt to capture. Finally, it proposes a framework for their implementation in a flexible governance architecture through the formulation of technology-specific research protocols.  相似文献   

Radial and rotational velocities of young brown dwarfs and very low-mass stars in the Upper Scorpius OB association and the ρ Ophiuchi cloud core     

Ryuichi Kurosawa  Tim J. Harries  S. P. Littlefair 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2006,372(4):1879-1887

We present the results of a radial velocity (RV) survey of 14 brown dwarfs (BDs) and very low-mass (VLM) stars in the Upper Scorpius OB association (UScoOB) and three BD candidates in the ρ Ophiuchi dark cloud core. We obtained high-resolution echelle spectra at the Very Large Telescope using the Ultraviolet and Visual Echelle Spectrograph (UVES) at two different epochs for each object, and measured the shifts in their RVs to identify candidates for binary/multiple systems in the sample. The average time separation of the RV measurements is 21.6 d, and our survey is sensitive to the binaries with separation <0.1 au. We found that four out of 17 objects (or 24⁺¹⁶₋₁₃ per cent by fraction) show a significant RV change in 4–33 d time-scale, and are considered as binary/multiple 'candidates'. We found no double-lined spectroscopic binaries in our sample, based on the shape of cross-correlation curves. The RV dispersion of the objects in UScoOB is found to be very similar to that of the BD and VLM stars in Chamaeleon I (Cha I). We also found the distribution of the mean rotational velocities ( v   sin   i ) of the UScoOB objects is similar to that of the Cha I, but the dispersion of v   sin   i is much larger than that of the Cha I objects.  相似文献   

A maximum-likelihood method for fitting colour–magnitude diagrams     

Tim Naylor  R. D. Jeffries 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2006,373(3):1251-1263

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The effect of a dense atmosphere on the tidally induced potential of Titan     

Özgür Karatekin  Tim Van Hoolst 《Icarus》2006,183(1):230-232

The effect of the dense atmosphere of Titan on the tidal variations of the external gravitational potential of degree two is quantified. The atmospheric tides perturb the external gravitational potential of Titan in two ways. First, the atmosphere itself contributes directly to the external gravitational potential with a period of 15.945 days. Second, the variable loading of the atmosphere induces mass redistribution within Titan, which also changes the external gravitational potential. It is shown that the relative atmospheric contributions to the tides are most likely less than 2% and vanish almost completely for the most plausible models with a subsurface ocean. This suggest that atmospheric tidal perturbations will contribute only negligibly to Cassini measurements of Titan's gravitational field so that the tidal Love numbers derived from these observations can be directly interpreted in terms of the satellite's interior.  相似文献   

The Shear Testing Programme – I. Weak lensing analysis of simulated ground-based observations     

Catherine Heymans  Ludovic Van Waerbeke  David Bacon  Joel Berge  Gary Bernstein  Emmanuel Bertin  Sarah Bridle  Michael L. Brown  Douglas Clowe  Håkon Dahle  Thomas Erben  Meghan Gray  Marco Hetterscheidt  Henk Hoekstra  Patrick Hudelot  Mike Jarvis  Konrad Kuijken  Vera Margoniner  Richard Massey  Yannick Mellier  Reiko Nakajima  Alexandre Refregier  Jason Rhodes  Tim Schrabback  David Wittman 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2006,368(3):1323-1339

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Probing the IRC+10 ° 216 circumstellar envelope using spectroscopic observations of background stars     

Tim Kendall  Nicolas Mauron  June McCombie  Peter Sarre 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2004,289(3-4):203-206

A unique and novel set of observations has been undertaken to study the circumstellar envelope (CSE) of the nearby (130 pc) carbon star IRC +10° 216 using optical absorption spectroscopy towards twobackground stars lying beyond the envelope.The primary aim of the observations is to search for diffuse band (DIB)carriers in the CSE. The circumstellar H+2H₂column density expected along the line of sight towards the targets islarge compared to that derived from the small interstellar reddening inthis region, E _B-V< 0.03 mag. We summarise our mainfindings, already reported in Kendall et al. (2002): The 6284Å DIB is detected in the VLT/UVES spectrum of one target, but clearly arises inthe foreground ISM. No other DIB is seen. Hence the DIB carriers, if present in the CSE, have a low abundance relative to H in the C-rich envelope of IRC +10°216, in comparison with this ratio in theISM. An important new result, previously unreported, concerns the detectionof circumstellar C₂ via absorption of the Phillips bandnear 8760Å.  相似文献