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Roberto Tonini Alberto Armigliato Gianluca Pagnoni Stefano Tinti 《Natural Hazards》2014,70(2):1507-1525
The M w = 9.1 mega-thrust Sumatra–Andaman earthquake that occurred on December 26, 2004, was followed by a devastating tsunami that killed hundreds of thousands of people and caused catastrophic effects on human settlements and environments along many coasts of the Indian Ocean, where even countries very far from the source were affected. One of these cases is represented by the Republic of Seychelles, where the tsunami reached the region about 7 h after the earthquake and produced relevant damages, despite the country was more than 4,500 km far from the seismic source. In the present work, we present and discuss a study of the 2004 Sumatra tsunami by means of numerical simulations with the attention focused on the effects observed at the Seychelles Archipelago, a region never previously investigated with this approach. The case is interesting since these islands lay on a very shallow oceanic platform with steep slopes so as the ocean depth changes from thousands to few tens of meters over short distances, with significant effects on the tsunami propagation features: the waves are strongly refracted by the oceanic platform and the tsunami signal is modified by the introduction of additional frequencies. The study is used also to validate the UBO-TSUFD numerical code on a real tsunami event in the far field, and the results are compared with the available observations, i.e., the sea level time series recorded at the Pointe La Rue station, Mahé Island, and run-up measurements and inundation lines surveyed few weeks after the tsunami at Praslin Island, where the tsunami hit during low tide. Synthetic results are found in good agreement with observations, even though some of the observations remain not fully solved. Moreover, simulations have been run in high-tide condition since the 2004 Sumatra tsunami hitting at high tide can be taken as the worst-case scenario for the Seychelles islands and used for tsunami hazard and risk assessments. 相似文献
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Numerical simulations of the 1963 Vajont landslide, Italy: application of 1D Lagrangian modelling 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
On 9 October 1963, a rock mass of about 250 millions m3, with a front width of 1,850 m, a mean thickness of about 200 m and a length of 350–400 m, detached from Mt Toc, on the left side of the Vajont valley, NE Italy, and collapsed into the reservoir created by a 261 m high dam. About 40 millions m3 of water was displaced, climbed up 200 m on the opposite side and then destroyed the little town of Longarone causing more than 2,000 casualties. This event is well known and was the object of numerous technical and scientific studies, especially in the two decades following the disaster. This work proposes a re-examination of the matter, focusing on the numerical modelling of the landslide, and is carried out by using a 1D numerical code based on a Lagrangian approach. The model is properly conceived for cases with slide length prevailing on width. When the slide width is comparable or prevailing on length, as is the case of the Vajont slide, the mass is first partitioned into a number of longitudinal long and narrow sub-slides. The Vajont mass was subdivided into six strips and the motion of each sub-slide was computed. The knowledge of the final deposit position allowed us to constrain the value of some relevant parameters characterizing the slide motion, the most interesting being the friction coefficient μ, that we varied in order to obtain the best-fit between calculated and observed deposits. Taking into account the additional constraint that all sub-slides move with the same or at least with similar speed, and introducing a global misfit based on deposit and velocity misfits, we were able to show that solutions minimizing the global misfit exhibit a relevant difference between the basal friction coefficients of the western and of the eastern sides of the sliding surface, with the former being significantly smaller (0.14–0.16) than the latter (0.32–0.34). 相似文献
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Stefano Tinti 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1980,118(2):783-795
Wave-induced oscillations in a circular harbour with protruding breakwaters and narrow mouth are analytically investigated by using a variational method. The effects of the bottom topography of the contiguous external sea are studied, especially as far as Helmholtz resonance is concerned; it has been found that the amplitude of the resonance peak is quite sensitive to the depth variation, while the related resonance wavenumber is more stable. 相似文献
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Trapping of long water waves that are induced by submarine earthquakes and that attack circular islands is studied by applying a theoretical model (Tinti andVannini, 1994) that is based on the linear shallow water approximation. The solution is computed as the superposition of the eigenmodes of the water basin. The tsunami trapping is seen in terms of the capability of the source to excite the trapped eigenmodes of the basin. The bottom depth dependence around the island is shown to be quite important in determining the trapping capability of the island: a depth profile that is downwardly concave as the distance from the island coasts increases is substantially more efficient in amplifying the incoming waves and in trapping their energy than a profile exhibiting an upward concavity. 相似文献
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Stefano Tinti 《Natural Hazards》1991,4(2-3):267-283
A method for the evaluation of tsunami potential in the seas surrounding Italy is presented. A major difficulty for performing reliable estimates of tsunami occurrence is that the existing tsunami catalog for Italy includes a small number of cases. This is due partly to the catalog incompleteness, strangely more pronounced in our century, and partly to the relative infrequency of tsunamis along the Italian seas. Evaluation of tsunami activity is therefore deduced by complementing the tsunami catalog data with data on seismicity that are by far more abundant and reliable. Analysis of seismicity and assessment of earthquake rate in coastal and submarine regions form the basis of the present method to perform tsunami potential estimates for Italy. One essential limitation of the method is that only tsunamis of seismic origin are taken into account, which leads to an underestimation of the tsunami potential. Since tsunamis generated by earthquakes are much more frequent than events produced by slumps or volcanic eruptions, the underestimation is not dramatic and very likely affects only a limited portion of the Italian coasts. In the present application of the method, eight separate regions have been considered that together cover all the coasts of Italy. In each region, seismicity has been independently examined and the earthquake potential has been calculated in small 20 × 20 cells. Then, on the basis of suitable assumptions, tsunami potential has been evaluated in each cell. According to this study, the Italian coasts that are the most exposed to the attacks of locally generated tsunamis are to be found in the Messina Straits, in Tyrrhenian coasts of Calabria, in the Ionian Sicilian coasts around Catania, and in the Gargano promontory in the Southern Adriatic Sea. Furthermore, this study confirms that the Northern Adriatic Sea has a low level of tsunami potential, in agreement with recent studies emphasizing that the large historical events concerning this region included in the first versions of the Italian tsunami catalog are largely overestimated and must be decreased. 相似文献
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Wang Liang Zhang Xue Zaniboni Filippo Oñate Eugenio Tinti Stefano 《Mathematical Geosciences》2021,53(1):81-103
Mathematical Geosciences - Notwithstanding its complexity in terms of numerical implementation and limitations in coping with problems involving extreme deformation, the finite element method (FEM)... 相似文献
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Stefano Tinti Filippo Zaniboni Gianluca Pagnoni Anna Manucci 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2008,165(11-12):2143-2167
Stromboli is an Italian volcanic island known for its persistent state of activity, which leads to frequent mass failures and consequently to frequent tsunamis ranging from large (and rare) catastrophic events involving the entire southern Tyrrhenian Sea to smaller events with, however, extremely strong local impact. Most of tsunamigenic landslides occur in the Sciara del Fuoco (SdF) zone, which is a deep scar in the NW flank of the volcano, that was produced by a Holocene massive flank collapse and that is the accumulation area of all the eruptive ejecta from the craters. Shallow-water bathymetric surveys around the island help one to identify submarine canyons and detachment scars giving evidence of mass instabilities and failures that may have produced and might produce tsunamis. The main purpose of this paper is to call attention to tsunami sources in Stromboli that are located outside the SdF area. Further, we do not touch on tsunami scenarios associated with gigantic sector collapses that have repeat times in the order of several thousands of years, but rather concentrate on intermediate size tsunamis, such as the ones that occurred in December 2002. Though we cannot omit tsunamis from the zone of the SdF, the main emphasis is on the elaboration of preliminary scenarios for three more possible source areas around Stromboli, namely Punta Lena Sud, Forgia Vecchia and Strombolicchio, with the aim of purposeful contributing to the evaluation of the hazard associated with such events and to increase the knowledge of potential threats affecting Stromboli and the nearby islands of the Aeolian archipelago. The simulations show that tsunami sources outside of the SdF can produce disastrous effects. As a consequence, we recommend that the monitoring system that is presently operating in Stromboli and that is focussed on the SdF source area be extended in order to cover even the other sources. Moreover, a synoptic analysis of the results from all the considered tsunami scenarios leads to a very interesting relation between the tsunami total energy and the landslide potential energy, that could be used as a very effective tool to evaluate the expected tsunami size from estimates of the landslide size. 相似文献