There is a long-standing debate on how the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) amplitude may change during the twenty-first century in response to global warming. Here we identify the sources of uncertainty in the ENSO amplitude projections in models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 5 (CMIP5) and Phase 6 (CMIP6), and quantify scenario uncertainty, model uncertainty and uncertainty due to internal variability. The model projections exhibit a large spread, ranging from increasing standard deviation of up to 0.6 °C to diminishing standard deviation of up to − 0.4 °C by the end of the twenty-first century. The ensemble-mean ENSO amplitude change is close to zero. Internal variability is the main contributor to the uncertainty during the first three decades; model uncertainty dominates thereafter, while scenario uncertainty is relatively small throughout the twenty-first century. The total uncertainty increases from CMIP5 to CMIP6: while model uncertainty is reduced, scenario uncertainty is considerably increased. The models with “realistic” ENSO dynamics have been analyzed separately and categorized into models with too small, moderate and too large ENSO amplitude in comparison to instrumental observations. The smallest uncertainties are observed in the sub-ensemble exhibiting realistic ENSO dynamics and moderate ENSO amplitude. However, the global warming signal in ENSO-amplitude change is undetectable in all sub-ensembles. The zonal wind-SST feedback is identified as an important factor determining ENSO amplitude change: global warming signal in ENSO amplitude and zonal wind-SST feedback strength are highly correlated across the CMIP5 and CMIP6 models.
This paper reviews major findings of the Multidisciplinary Experimental and Modeling Impact Crater Research Network (MEMIN). MEMIN is a consortium, funded from 2009 till 2017 by the German Research Foundation, and is aimed at investigating impact cratering processes by experimental and modeling approaches. The vision of this network has been to comprehensively quantify impact processes by conducting a strictly controlled experimental campaign at the laboratory scale, together with a multidisciplinary analytical approach. Central to MEMIN has been the use of powerful two-stage light-gas accelerators capable of producing impact craters in the decimeter size range in solid rocks that allowed detailed spatial analyses of petrophysical, structural, and geochemical changes in target rocks and ejecta. In addition, explosive setups, membrane-driven diamond anvil cells, as well as laser irradiation and split Hopkinson pressure bar technologies have been used to study the response of minerals and rocks to shock and dynamic loading as well as high-temperature conditions. We used Seeberger sandstone, Taunus quartzite, Carrara marble, and Weibern tuff as major target rock types. In concert with the experiments we conducted mesoscale numerical simulations of shock wave propagation in heterogeneous rocks resolving the complex response of grains and pores to compressive, shear, and tensile loading and macroscale modeling of crater formation and fracturing. Major results comprise (1) projectile–target interaction, (2) various aspects of shock metamorphism with special focus on low shock pressures and effects of target porosity and water saturation, (3) crater morphologies and cratering efficiencies in various nonporous and porous lithologies, (4) in situ target damage, (5) ejecta dynamics, and (6) geophysical survey of experimental craters. 相似文献
Passive treatment systems are widely used for remediation of acid mine drainage (AMD), but existing designs are prone to clogging or loss of reactivity due to Al- and Fe-precipitates when treating water with high Al and heavy metal concentrations. Dispersed alkaline substrate (DAS) mixed from a fine-grained alkaline reagent (e.g. calcite sand) and a coarse inert matrix (e.g. wood chips) had shown high reactivity and good hydraulic properties in previous laboratory column tests. In the present study, DAS was tested at pilot field scale in the Iberian Pyrite Belt (SW Spain) on metal mine drainage with pH near 3.3, net acidity 1400–1650 mg/L as CaCO3, and mean concentrations of 317 mg/L Fe (95% Fe(II)), 311 mg/L Zn, 74 mg/L Al, 20 mg/L Mn, and 1.5–0.1 mg/L Cu, Co, Ni, Cd, As and Pb. The DAS-tank removed an average of 870 mg/L net acidity as CaCO3 (56% of inflow), 25% Fe, 93% Al, 5% Zn, 95% Cu, 99% As, 98% Pb, and 14% Cd, but no Mn, Ni or Co. Average gross drain pipe alkalinity was 181 mg/L as CaCO3, which increased total Fe removal to 153 mg/L (48%) in subsequent sedimentation ponds. Unfortunately, the tank suffered clogging problems due to the formation of a hardpan of Al-rich precipitates. DAS lifetime could probably be increased by lowering Al-loads. 相似文献
Ground‐penetrating radar (GPR) has become a promising technique in the field of snow hydrological research. It is commonly used to measure snow depth, density, and water equivalent over large distances or along gridded snow courses. Having built and tested a mobile lightweight set‐up, we demonstrate that GPR is capable of accurately measuring snow ablation rates in complex alpine terrain. Our set‐up was optimized for efficient measurements and consisted of a multioffset radar with four pairs of antennas mounted to a plastic sled, which was small enough to permit safe and convenient operations. Repeated measurements at intervals of 2 to 7 days were taken during the 2014/2015 winter season along 10 profiles of 50 to 200 m length within two valleys located in the eastern Swiss Alps. Resulting GPR‐based data of snow depth, density, and water equivalent, as well as their respective change over time, were in good agreement with concurrent manual measurements, in particular if accurate alignment between repeated overpasses could be achieved. Corresponding root‐mean‐square error (RMSE) values amounted to 4.2 cm for snow depth, 17 mm for snow water equivalent, and 22 kg/m3 for snow density, with similar RMSE values for corresponding differential data. With this performance, the presented radar set‐up has the potential to provide exciting new and extensive datasets to validate snowmelt models or to complement lidar‐based snow surveys. 相似文献
Hf‐isotope data of >1100 detrital zircon grains from the Palaeozoic, south‐central Andean Gondwana margin record the complete crustal evolution of South America, which was the predominant source. The oldest grains, with crustal residence ages of 3.8–4.0 Ga, are consistent with complete recycling of existing continental crust around 4 Ga. We confirm three major Archaean, Palaeoproterozoic (Transamazonian) and late Mesoproterozoic to early Neoproterozoic crust‐addition phases as well as six igneous phases during Proterozoic to Palaeozoic time involving mixing of juvenile and crustally reworked material. A late Mesoproterozoic to early Neoproterozoic, Grenville‐age igneous belt can be postulated along the palaeo‐margin of South America. This belt was the basement for later magmatic arcs and accreted allochthonous microcontinents as recorded by similar crustal residence ages. Crustal reworking likely dominated over juvenile addition during the Palaeozoic era, and Proterozoic and Archaean zircon was mainly crustally reworked from the eroding, thickened Ordovician Famatinian arc. 相似文献