Seasonal Forecasting for Climate Hazards: Prospects and Responses     

Murphy  Sarah J.  Washington  Richard  Downing  Thomas E.  Martin  Randall V.  Ziervogel  Gina  Preston  Anthony  Todd  Martin  Butterfield  Ruth  Briden  Jim 《Natural Hazards》2001,23(2-3):171-196

One of the most promising developments for early warning of climate hazards is seasonal climate forecasting. Already forecasts are operational in many parts of the tropics and sub-tropics, particularly for droughts and floods associated with ENSO events. Prospects for further development of seasonal forecasting for a range of climatichazards are reviewed, illustrated with case studies in Africa, Australia, the U.S.A. and Europe. A critical evaluation of the utility of seasonal forecasts centres on vulnerability, communicationchannels, and effective responses. In contrast to short-term prediction, seasonal forecasts raise new issues of preparedness and the use of information.  相似文献   

Mountains,nations, parks,and conservation     

Daniel Taylor-Ide  Alton C. Byers III  J. Gabriel Campbell 《GeoJournal》1992,27(1):105-112

Between 1985 and 1991, two new mountain protected areas (MTNPA) covering more than 35,000 km² and based on participatory management models — the Makalu-Barun National Park and Conservation Area, Nepal, and Qomolangma Nature Preserve, Tibet Autonomous Region — were successfully established through the collaborative efforts of Woodlands Mountain Institute and conservationists in China and Nepal. Characteristics common to both projects include the importance of establishing (1) effective rationales, (2) local support constituencies, (3) a senior advisory group, (4) a task force, (5) linkages between conservation and development, and (6) fund raising mechanisms. The lessons derived from the experiences of Woodlands Mountain Institute are of significant value to others in preserving MTNPA. Increased collaboration and communication between all interested in conservation, however, will remain a critical component for expanding mountain protected area coverage to throughout the world.  相似文献   

A skeletal assemblage classification system for non-tropical carbonate deposits based on New Zealand Cenozoic limestones     

Shaun Hayton  Campbell S. Nelson  Steven D. Hood 《Sedimentary Geology》1995,100(1-4)

Cenozoic limestones in New Zealand are mainly skeletal grainstones and packstones formed under non-tropical climatic conditions in open marine shelf or ramp environments. Following petrographic analysis of the nature and abundance of the skeletal components in nearly 500 samples of these limestones, a complete linkage cluster analysis identified seven major skeletal assemblages that may be regarded as subdivisions of the single foramol skeletal association defined by Lees and Buller (1972) for temperate-region carbonate deposits. The seven assemblages are given contracted names, as follows: (a) BARNAMOL = barnacle/bivalve-dominated; (b) BIMOL = bivalve-dominated; (c) BRYOMOL = bryozoan/bivalve-dominated; (d) ECHINOFOR = echinoderm/benthic foraminiferal-dominated; (e) NANNOFOR = nannofossil/planktonic foraminiferal-dominated; (f) RHODALGAL = calcareous red algal-dominated; and (g) RHODECHFOR = calcareous red algal/echinoderm/benthic foraminiferal-dominated. A composite triangular classification diagram has been devised for naming the skeletal assemblage of an unknown sample on the basis of its three main skeletal components. The diagram successfully characterises more than 85% of the New Zealand Cenozoic limestone samples and also appears to be applicable for the skeletal assemblage designation of many overseas examples of non-tropical carbonate deposits. Limitations relate mainly to locally common skeletal types (e.g. serpulids, brachiopods) that are presently not incorporated into the New Zealand-based scheme. The general ecological preferences of the main skeletal contributors in each of the seven skeletal assemblages form a basis for relating the assemblages to broad shelf habitats. Consequently, as well as the benefits of providing a more consistent skeletal assemblage terminology for comparative studies between different workers, the scheme can assist with the paleoenvironmental interpretation of non-tropical skeletal carbonate facies.  相似文献   

The volcanic and magmatic evolution of Volcán Ollagüe, a high-K, late quaternary stratovolcano in the Andean Central Volcanic Zone     

Todd C. Feeley  Jon P. Davidson  Adolfo Armendia 《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》1993,54(3-4)

Volcán Ollagüe is a high-K, calc-alkaline composite volcano constructed upon extremely thick crust in the Andean Central Volcanic Zone. Volcanic activity commenced with the construction of an andesitic to dacitic composite cone composed of numerous lava flows and pyroclastic deposits of the Vinta Loma series and an overlying coalescing dome and coulée sequence of the Chasca Orkho series. Following cone construction, the upper western flank of Ollagüe collapsed toward the west leaving a collapse-amphitheater about 3.5 km in diameter and a debris avalanche deposit on the lower western flank of the volcano. The deposit is similar to the debris avalanche deposit produced during the May 18, 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens, U.S.A., and was probably formed in a similar manner. It presently covers an area of 100 km² and extends 16 km from the summit. Subsequent to the collapse event, the upper western flank was reformed via eruption of several small andesitic lava flows from vents located near the western summit and growth of an andesitic dome within the collapse-amphitheater. Additional post-collapse activity included construction of a dacitic dome and coulée of the La Celosa series on the northwest flank. Field relations indicate that vents for the Vinta Loma and post-collapse series were located at or near the summit of the cone. The Vinta Loma series is characterized by an anhydrous, two-pyroxene assemblage. Vents for the La Celosa and Chasca Orkho series are located on the flanks and strike N55 W, radial to the volcano. The pattern of flank eruptions coincides with the distribution in the abundance of amphibole and biotite as the main mafic phenocryst phases in the rocks. A possible explanation for this coincidence is that an unexposed fracture or fault beneath the volcano served as a conduit for both magma ascent and groundwater circulation. In addition to the lava flows at Ollagüe, magmas are also present as blobs of vesiculated basaltic andesite and mafic andesite that occur as inclusions in nearly all of the lavas. All eruptive activity at Ollagüe predates the last glacial episode ( 11.000 a B.P.), because post-collapse lava flows are overlain by moraine and are incised by glacial valleys. Present activity is restricted to emission of a persistent, 100-m-high fumarolic steam plume from a vent located within the summit andesite dome.Sr and Nd isotope ratios for the basaltic andesite and mafic andesite inclusions and lavas suggest that they have assimilated large amounts of crust during crystal fractionation. In contrast, narrow ranges in ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd and ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr in the andesitic and dacitic lavas are enigmatic with respect to crustal contamination.  相似文献   

Response time of the high-latitude dayside ionosphere to sudden changes in the north-south component of the IMF     

H. Todd  S.W.H. Cowley  M. Lockwood  D.M. Willis  H. Lühr 《Planetary and Space Science》1988,36(12):1415-1428

The time scale of the response of the high-latitude dayside ionospheric flow to changes in the North-South component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) has been investigated by examining the time delays between corresponding sudden changes. Approximately 40 h of simultaneous IMF and ionospheric flow data have been examined, obtained by the AMPTE-UKS and -IRM spacecraft and the EISCAT “Polar” experiment, respectively, in which 20 corresponding sudden changes have been identified. Ten of these changes were associated with southward turnings of the IMF, and 10 with northward turnings. It has been found that the corresponding flow changes occurred simultaneously over the whole of the “Polar” field-of-view, extending more than 2° in invariant latitude, and that the ionospheric response delay following northward turnings is the same as that following southward turnings, though the form of the response is different in the two cases. The shortest response time, 5.5 ± 3.2 min, is found in the early- to mid-afternoon sector, increasing to 9.5 ± 3.0 min in the mid-morning sector, and to 9.5 ± 3.1 min near to dusk. These times represent the delays in the appearance of perturbed flows in the “Polar” field-of-view following the arrival of IMF changes at the subsolar magnetopause. Overall, the results agree very well with those derived by Etemadi et al. (1988, Planet. Space Sci. 36, 471) from a general cross-correlation analysis of the IMF B_z and “Polar” beam-swinging vector flow data.  相似文献   

A study of the diurnal variation in the thermosphere as derived by satellite drag     

L.G. Jacchia  I.G. Campbell  J.W. Slowey 《Planetary and Space Science》1973,21(11):1825-1834

An analysis was performed on 29,574 densities derived from the drag of 10 satellites to determine simultaneously the parameters of the solar-activity effect in the thermosphere on the one hand, and the amplitude and shape of the diurnal-variation curve on the other. This paper reports on the study of the diurnal variation only.Although a considerable amount of smoothing is inherent in the drag method, it seemed useful to see whether we could detect any change in the shape of the diurnal-variation curve with height, latitude and solar activity. None was detected: the curve remains remarkably stable, symmetric, with a maximum at 14 hr 20 min L.S.T. and a minimum at 2 hr 20 min L.S.T. A systematic variation of the temperature range with height is observed when static models are used to derive it.  相似文献   

Dissolved chromium in the St. Lawrence estuary     

John A. Campbell  Philip A. Yeats 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》1984,19(5):513-522

A study of dissolved chromium in the St. Lawrence estuary and Gulf of St. Lawrence has been carried out. A chromium concentration of 0·7 μg l^?1 was found in the St. Lawrence River. In the turbidity maximum of the upper estuary, chromium is removed from solution onto fine-grained resuspended sediments and internally produced organic-rich floccules. A simple flux calculation shows that these processes remove ～50% of the total dissolved chromium input of the river. At salinities greater than 5‰ dissolved chromium mixes conservatively.  相似文献   

Contents of Volume 46     

G. J. Kenny  R. A. Warrick  B. D. Campbell  G. C. Sims  M. Camilleri 《Climatic change》2000,46(4):511-512

Volume Contents

Contents of Volume 46  相似文献   

Natural Geological Weighing Lysimeters: Calibration Tools for Satellite and Ground Surface Gravity Monitoring of Subsurface Water-Mass Change     

Bardsley  W. E.  Campbell  D. I. 《Natural Resources Research》2000,9(2):147-156

Increased accuracy in measuring temporal variations in the Earth's gravity field allow inprinciple the use of gravity observations to deduce subsurface water-mass changes. This canbe with respect to a small area, or as a larger spatial average of water mass change usinggravity observations from low-altitude satellites, such as the forthcoming GRACE mission.At both scales, there is a need to validate gravity-based estimates against field recordings ofactual subsurface water-mass variations. In practice, this could prove difficult because thespatial integral of all water-storage change components can be subject to considerable fieldmeasurement error. An alternative approach to the validation process is proposed by whichsuitable geological formations are utilized as giant weighing devices to directly measure area-integratedwater-mass changes. The existence of such natural geological weighing lysimetersis demonstrated using observations from a replicated experimental site in New Zealand. Sitesof this type could be used to verify water-storage change estimates derived from sensitiveground surface gravity instrumentation. In addition, geological lysimeters could be used tomake local checks on the accuracy of any estimated regional water-mass time series, whichis proposed for satellite calibration. The land area weighed by a geological lysimeter increaseswith formation depth and it is speculated that recordings made at oil well depth may allowdirect monitoring of subsurface water mass changes at the regional scale.  相似文献   

Incipient weathering rind development on introduced machine‐polished granite discs in an Arctic alpine environment,northern Scandinavia     

John C. Dixon  Sean W. Campbell  Colin E. Thorn  Robert G. Darmody 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2006,31(1):111-121

Weathering rinds, zones of alteration on the exterior surfaces of rock outcrops and coarse unconsolidated surficial debris are widely used by geomorphologists and Quaternary geologists as indicators of the relative age of landforms and landscapes. Additionally they provide unique insights into the earliest stages of rock and mineral weathering, yet the origin of these alteration zones is relatively poorly understood. This lack of understanding applies especially to the initial stages of rind formation. The study reported in this paper has two principal objectives. The first is to use lightly polished granite discs inserted in soil profiles under several different plant communities in an Arctic alpine environment for a period of four or five years to investigate the nature of incipient weathering rind development. The second is to investigate the factors responsible for spatial variability in the nature and rates of rind formation. Incipient weathering rind development on the outer edges of the granite discs is observable and measurable over a period of time as short as four years in the mild Arctic alpine environment of Swedish Lapland. The earliest stages of rind development involve the development of a porous structure consisting of a combination of pits and fractures which have been solutionally enlarged and modified. Solution appears to be preferentially concentrated on the surfaces of feldspars and, to a lesser extent, quartz. In addition, iron oxides are present along grain boundaries and in grain interiors and are interpreted to have been derived from the oxidation of ferromagnesian minerals. Spatial variability in weathering rind development appears to be particularly driven by differences in moisture but is not related to soil pH. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献