基于小波长短期记忆网络的风电功率超短期概率预测     

王朋  孙永辉  翟苏巍  候栋宸  王森 《南京气象学院学报》2019,11(4):460-466

随着大规模的风电并网,风电所具有的间歇性与随机性对电力系统的稳定性产生了很大的影响,风电功率预测成为当前解决该问题重要的方式之一.本文利用长短期记忆（LSTM）网络良好的时序记忆特性,将小波分解技术与LSTM深度网络结合,提出基于小波长短期记忆网络的风电功率超短期概率预测模型.首先通过小波分解技术将原始时间序列进行平稳化处理,再建立各子序列样本的LSTM网络预测模型,借助最大似然估计法估计预测误差的高斯分布函数,最终实现对未来4 h时刻的风电功率概率区间预测.最后,采用中国东北某风电场数据对所提方法进行算例分析,结果表明,将小波分解与深度学习方法结合可以较好地提高预测的精度,提高概率预测的区间可靠性.  相似文献   

利用Lg波Q值反双台层析成像方法研究青藏高原南部地区的地壳衰减          下载免费PDF全文

鲁志楠  边银菊  王婷婷  刘森 《地震学报》2021,43(3):287-302

首次基于2017—2019年西藏自治区区域台网27个宽频带固定台站记录的757次地震的波形资料,利用反双台法开展了青藏高原南部地区1 Hz的Lg波Q值层析成像研究.研究中采用3.5—2.4 km/s的速度窗截取了1981条Lg波,计算得到13543条路径上的Q值,测试了1°×1°和0.5°×0.5°网格下的棋盘格恢复情...  相似文献   

芙蓉岛秋季鸟类生物多样性研究          下载免费PDF全文

陶卉卉  张亮  林森  黄蕊  王尽文  郑金金  郑诗峰  钟山 《海岸工程》2022,41(3):277-282

为了解芙蓉岛鸟类生态类群和多样性,本文以2019年9月芙蓉岛鸟类调查数据为基础,利用样点法对芙蓉岛鸟类的种类、生态类群、区系、居留型和鸟类多样性等进行了研究。结果表明：本次调查共记录鸟类5目15科31种,其中国家Ⅱ级保护鸟类7种,列入《濒危野生动植物种国际贸易公约及有效决议汇编》附录Ⅲ中的鸟类1种。从生态类群构成上：鸣禽19种,猛禽7种,涉禽4种,陆禽1种;从鸟类地理区系构成上：广布种23种,古北种7种,东洋界1种;从居留类型构成上：冬候鸟5种,留鸟3种,旅鸟17种,夏候鸟、冬候鸟和旅鸟混合类型6种。鸟类群落多样性指数（H’）为3.83,均匀度指数（J）为0.77。芙蓉岛鸟类优势种为红嘴鸥（Larus ridibundus）、家燕（Hirundo rustica）和树麻雀（Passer montanus）。本文对芙蓉岛鸟类生物多样性进行了报道,对芙蓉岛鸟类资源的本底调查以及该区域鸟类生物多样性保护具有重要意义。  相似文献   

辽宁红透山铜锌矿床地质特征及成因浅析   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

张森  赵东方  吕广俊  沙德铭  权恒  田昌烈  杨铁军 《地质与资源》2007,16(3):173-182

红透山铜锌矿床赋存于辽北太古宙绿岩红透山岩组,为极具工业意义的大型矿床.通过对矿石H、O、S、Pb同位素特征的分析,结合矿床矿体形态、矿石结构、构造及围岩蚀变等宏观特征,认为红透山铜锌矿床成矿物质来源于太古宙晚期火山-沉积岩系,成矿流体来源于变质水和大气降水,成矿热力来源于变质作用,从而认为红透山铜锌矿床属“火山-沉积变质热液叠加”型层控矿床.  相似文献   

Numerical study of baroclinic tides in Luzon Strait   总被引：6，自引：1，他引：5  

Sen Jan  Ren-Chieh Lien  Chi-Hua Ting 《Journal of Oceanography》2008,64(5):789-802

The spatial and temporal variations of baroclinic tides in the Luzon Strait (LS) are investigated using a three-dimensional tide model driven by four principal constituents, O₁, K₁, M₂ and S₂, individually or together with seasonal mean summer or winter stratifications as the initial field. Barotropic tides propagate predominantly westward from the Pacific Ocean, impinge on two prominent north-south running submarine ridges in LS, and generate strong baroclinic tides propagating into both the South China Sea (SCS) and the Pacific Ocean. Strong baroclinic tides, ∼19 GW for diurnal tides and ∼11 GW for semidiurnal tides, are excited on both the east ridge (70%) and the west ridge (30%). The barotropic to baroclinic energy conversion rate reaches 30% for diurnal tides and ∼20% for semidiurnal tides. Diurnal (O₁ and K₁) and semidiurnal (M₂) baroclinic tides have a comparable depth-integrated energy flux 10–20 kW m⁻¹ emanating from the LS into the SCS and the Pacific basin. The spring-neap averaged, meridionally integrated baroclinic tidal energy flux is ∼7 GW into the SCS and ∼6 GW into the Pacific Ocean, representing one of the strongest baroclinic tidal energy flux regimes in the World Ocean. About 18 GW of baroclinic tidal energy, ∼50% of that generated in the LS, is lost locally, which is more than five times that estimated in the vicinity of the Hawaiian ridge. The strong westward-propagating semidiurnal baroclinic tidal energy flux is likely the energy source for the large-amplitude nonlinear internal waves found in the SCS. The baroclinic tidal energy generation, energy fluxes, and energy dissipation rates in the spring tide are about five times those in the neap tide; while there is no significant seasonal variation of energetics, but the propagation speed of baroclinic tide is about 10% faster in summer than in winter. Within the LS, the average turbulence kinetic energy dissipation rate is O(10⁻⁷) W kg^{− 1} and the turbulence diffusivity is O(10⁻³) m²s⁻¹, a factor of 100 greater than those in the typical open ocean. This strong turbulence mixing induced by the baroclinic tidal energy dissipation exists in the main path of the Kuroshio and is important in mixing the Pacific Ocean, Kuroshio, and the SCS waters.  相似文献   

Field detection of chlorophyll-a concentration in the sea surface layer by an airborne oceanographic lidar   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

LIU Zhishen MA Sen WANG Xin LI Zhigang 《中国海洋大学学报(英文版)》2008,7(1):108-112

An airborne oceanographic lidar, with a frequency-tripled Q-switched Nd： YAG laser of 355 nm, has been designed to measure chlorophyll-a （Chl-a） concentration in the sea surface layer by the Ocean Remote Sensing Institute, OUC. The field experiment was carried out in the bay which is located south of the Liaodong Peninsula on the 10th of September 2005. After the flight, the raw data were processed and analyzed by the fluorescence-to-Raman ratio method with seawater attenuation coefficients calculated from signal profiles. The results of Chl-a concentration sea water were also compared with those of Chl-a concentration by measurements by lidar are shown. The measurements in clear a Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer （MODIS）.  相似文献   

Field Detection of Chlorophyll-a Concentration in the Sea Surface Layer by an Airborne Oceanographic Lidar     

LIU Zhishen  MA Sen  WANG Xin  LI Zhigang 《中国海洋大学学报(英文版)》2008,7(1)

An airborne oceanographic lidar, with a frequency-tripled Q-switched Nd: YAG laser of 355 nm, has been designed to measure chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentration in the sea surface layer by the Ocean Remote Sensing Institute, OUC. The field experiment was carried out in the bay which is located south of the Liaodong Peninsula on the 10th of September 2005. After the flight, the raw data were processed and analyzed by the fluorescence-to-Raman ratio method with seawater attenuation coefficients calculated from signal profiles. The results of Chl-a concentration measurements by lidar are shown. The measurements in clear sea water were also compared with those of Chl-a concentration by a Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS).  相似文献   

Sea Level Rise in Miami Beach: Vulnerability and Real Estate Exposure     

Zella Ann Conyers  Richard Grant  Shouraseni Sen Roy 《The Professional geographer》2019,71(2):278-291

Sea level rise threatens coastal communities throughout the United States, and South Florida is on the front line. The iconic and built-up city of Miami Beach, Florida, has a well-developed, high-value property market, and the municipality has been lauded for proactively taking action to adapt to anticipated sea level rise. Moving beyond hyperbole and piecemeal evidence, we compile a comprehensive inventory of adaptation and mitigation measures implemented by various municipal agencies. We employ these data sets to measure exposure and readiness for the entire city and make a preliminary effort to develop a city vulnerability index. Our findings reveal that exposure throughout the city is high and that readiness is concentrated near stormwater drainage systems, leading to high vulnerability along the coast. When we compare the spatial patterns of the vulnerability index and the residential property values, we find a mismatch. The most vulnerable regions are characterized by high income, transiency, and an apparent unresponsiveness to sea level rise. No doubt our findings illustrate a lag effect, but if sea level rise increases, the real estate market could reach a tipping point unless state and federal agencies also fund more comprehensive adaptation.  相似文献   

中国耕地土壤相对湿度时空分异   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3  

潘汉雄  朱国锋  张昱  郭慧文  雍磊磊  万巧卓  马惠莹  李森 《地理学报》2019,74(1):117-130

以全国653个农业气象站1993-2013年耕地的土壤相对湿度数据为基础,运用地统计方法,分析中国耕地土壤相对湿度时空分异特征与规律。结果表明:自1993年以来全国耕地的土壤相对湿度呈现波动上升趋势。全国耕地的土壤相对湿度普遍大于60%,分布区域自4月中旬开始随夏季风推移不断向北向西扩大,自10月下旬开始向东、南方向缩小。耕地土壤相对湿度值随土壤深度的增加而增加。年际尺度上,耕地的土壤相对湿度在夏秋季上升速度最快,变化幅度随土层深度增加而变小。土壤相对湿度与降水量存在较强的正相关关系,与潜在蒸发量、气温普遍存在较强的负相关关系。土壤相对湿度与各气象要素的相关性随深度加深而减弱。春、夏、秋季气象因素对旱地土壤相对湿度影响较大,冬季气象因素对水田影响更大。  相似文献   

GIS支持下的土地资源环境承载力评价——以荣成市为例     

邵艳坡  刘森  郭志勇 《北京测绘》2019,33(1):35-39

随着人类生产活动的日益加剧,土地资源环境已逐渐成为制约社会经济发展的主要因素。基于荣成市土地资源环境要素,利用层次分析法构建了区域土地资源环境承载力评价体系。对土地资源进行基础性评价,在GIS技术支持下计算各项指标分值,并得出承载状态压力指数;在基础性评价结果的基础上,对水资源、生态条件与环境质量进行修正性评价。结果显示,荣成市土地资源环境基础性评价为可载,基于水资源系统的综合承载状态为临界,基于生态条件与环境质量系统的综合承载状态为可载。  相似文献