Bias,variance and computational properties of Kijko’s estimators of the upper limit of magnitude distribution,M<Subscript>max</Subscript>     

Stanisław Lasocki  Paweł Urban 《Acta Geophysica》2011,59(4):659-673

It is often assumed in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis that the magnitude distribution has an upper limit M _max, which indicates a limitation on event size in specific seismogeneic conditions. Accurate estimation of M _max from an earthquake catalog is a matter of utmost importance. We compare bias, dispersion and computational properties of four popular M _max estimators, introduced by Kijko and others (e.g., Kijko and Sellevoll 1989, Kijko and Graham 1998, Kijko 2004) and we recommend the ones which can be the most fruitful in practical applications. We provide nomograms for evaluation of bias and standard deviation of the recommended estimators for combinations of sample sizes and distribution parameters. We suggest to use the bias nomograms to correct the M _max estimates. The nomograms of standard deviation can be used to determine minimum sample size for a required accuracy of M _max.  相似文献   

Simulating Oxygen Intrusion into Highly Heterogeneous Fractured Media Using High Performance Computing     

Paolo Trinchero  Jorge Molinero  Hedieh Ebrahimi  Ignasi Puigdomenech  Björn Gylling  Urban Svensson  Dirk Bosbach  Guido Deissmann 《Mathematical Geosciences》2018,50(5):549-567

Fractured crystalline rocks are under consideration by several countries as host formations for high-level nuclear waste repositories. The redox evolution in these host rock formations is an important issue for the stability and safety of these disposal sites. If, for example, during a glaciation/deglaciation event, oxygen-rich glacial meltwater penetrates to the depth of the planned repository, some of the engineered barriers would be adversely affected. Moreover, oxidizing conditions would increase the solubility and mobility of many radionuclides. Reactive transport simulations, which are typically used to assess the redox buffering capacity of these host rock formations, are computationally demanding, and thus, calculations for the evaluation of oxygen penetration are usually carried out over simplified geometries and the heterogeneity of the site, both physical (e.g., variability in the groundwater flow field and the kinematic porosity) and mineralogical (e.g., variability in the abundance of Fe(II)-bearing minerals), is usually represented in a simplified fashion. Here, it is shown how a recently developed numerical framework, combined with high performance computing technologies, allows the full geometrical, physical and mineralogical complexity of the site under study to be efficiently included in these types of reactive transport calculations. A synthetically generated realistic three-dimensional fractured medium is used to assess oxygen penetration patterns and their dependence on both the hydrogeological conditions and the availability of Fe(II)-bearing minerals. The results of the calculations point out the significant influence of both physical and mineralogical heterogeneity on the oxygen penetration patterns, thus highlighting the importance of a model parameterisation consistent with the site complexity.  相似文献   

Identification of the Fugloyarbanki tephra in the NGRIP ice core: a key tie‐point for marine and ice‐core sequences during the last glacial period     

S. M. Davies  S. Wastegård  T. L. Rasmussen  A. Svensson  S. J. Johnsen  J. P. Steffensen  K. K. Andersen 《第四纪科学杂志》2008,23(5):409-414

A visible tephra horizon in the NGRIP ice core has been identified by geochemical analysis as the Fugloyarbanki Tephra, a widespread marker horizon in marine cores from the Faroe Islands area and the northern North Atlantic. An age of 26 740 ± 390 yr b2k (1σ uncertainty) is derived for this tephra according to the new Greenland Ice Core Chronology (GICC05) based on multi‐parameter counting of annual layers. Detection of this tephra for the first time within the NGRIP ice core provides a key tie‐point between marine and ice‐core records during the transition between MIS 3 and 2. Identification of this volcanic event within the Greenland records demonstrates the future potential of using tephrochronology to precisely correlate palaeoarchives in widely separated localities that span the last glacial period, as well as providing a potential method for examining the extent of the radiocarbon marine reservoir effect at this time. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Reconstructing the Younger Dryas ice dammed lake in the Baltic Basin: Bathymetry, area and volume   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Martin Jakobsson  Svante Bjrck  Gran Alm  Thomas Andrn  Greger Lindeberg  Nils-Olof Svensson 《Global and Planetary Change》2007,57(3-4):355-370

A digital 3D-reconstruction of the Baltic Ice Lake's (BIL) configuration during the termination of the Younger Dryas cold phase (ca. 11 700 cal. yr BP) was compiled using a combined bathymetric–topographic Digital Terrain Model (DTM), Scandinavian ice sheet limits, Baltic Sea Holocene bottom sediment thickness information, and a paleoshoreline database maintained at the Lund University. The bathymetric–topographic DTM, assembled from publicly available data sets, has a resolution of 500 × 500 m on Lambert Azimuthal Equal Area projection allowing area and volume calculations of the BIL to be made with an unprecedented accuracy. When the damming Scandinavian ice sheet margin eventually retreated north of Mount Billingen, the high point in terrain of Southern central Sweden bordering to lower terrain further to the north, the BIL was catastrophically drained resulting in a 25 m drop of the lake level. With our digital reconstruction, we estimate that approximately 7800 km³ of water drained during this event and that the ice dammed lake area was reduced by ca. 18%. Building on previous results suggesting drainage over 1 to 2 years, our lake volume calculations imply that the freshwater flux to the contemporaneous sea in the west was between about 0.12 and 0.25 Sv. The BIL reconstruction provides new detailed information on the paleogeography in the area of southern Scandinavia, both before and after the drainage event, with implications for interpretations of geological records concerning the post-glacial environmental development.  相似文献   

Improvement of the Integrating Velocity-Azimuth Process Single-Doppler Radar Wind-Retrieval Method     

LIANG Xudong 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2010,24(6):721-731

Among the single-Doppler radar wind analysis methods,the velocity-azimuth display(VAD),velocityazimuth process(VAP),and uniform wind(UW) methods are widely used because of their simplicity.A general form of the VAD,VAP,and UW methods is the integrating VAP(IVAP) method,which is based on the azimuth uniform-wind assumption.In this study,the IVAP method is improved by applying the method along natural coordinates. The natural coordinates can be chosen to ensure that the tangential and radial winds are unif...  相似文献   

A new passive synthetic aperture technique for towed arrays     

Stergiopoulos  S. Urban  H. 《Oceanic Engineering, IEEE Journal of》1992,17(1):16-25

An algorithm that synthesizes apertures in the beam domain using FFT transformations and performs coherent processing of subaperture signals at successive time intervals is presented. Experimental tests of the algorithm show that for ocean environments with spatial coherence longer than the synthetic aperture length and for signals with temporal coherence longer than the required acquisition time, a synthetic array gain is achieved which roughly corresponds to the length of an equivalent fully populated array. In the experiments, transducer generated CW with phase stability and pseudorandom signals were used. Limitations on the spatial and temporal coherence were introduced only by the medium, the temporal coherence of the pseudorandom signal, and the shape and stability of the line array used  相似文献   

Environmental fragility evaluation and guidelines for environmental zoning: a study case on Ibiuna (the Southeastern Brazilian region)     

Luiz Augusto Manfré  Alexandre Marco da Silva  Rodrigo Custódio Urban  John Rodgers 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2013,69(3):947-957

Environmental fragility models are important decision tools for policy makers as they help quantify environmental sensitivity and understand the relationship between human activities and environmental quality. The objective of this study was to evaluate three different environmental fragility models within the Brazilian rainforest region and to use the results to develop environmental zone classes. Two rural river basins located in Ibiuna, Sao Paulo state, Brazil, were studied. Input variables, including slope class, relief dissection rate, soil class, lithology, land cover, and climate data, were used to compute environmental fragility classes using three standard models. The model outputs were evaluated on their ability to accurately predict the most sensitive and least sensitive areas. The best models for each region were used to derive environmental zoning maps, including restoration priorities, best regions for agriculture, and areas with high needs for soil management. These maps will help support land use strategies for environmental restoration. This study provides insight into territorial ordering and management of environmental services with a regional perspective.  相似文献   

The Third GABLS Intercomparison Case for Evaluation Studies of Boundary-Layer Models. Part B: Results and Process Understanding   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Fred C. Bosveld  Peter Baas  Gert-Jan Steeneveld  Albert A. M. Holtslag  Wayne M. Angevine  Eric Bazile  Evert I. F. de Bruijn  Daniel Deacu  John M. Edwards  Michael Ek  Vincent E. Larson  Jonathan E. Pleim  Matthias Raschendorfer  Gunilla Svensson 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2014,152(2):157-187

We describe and analyze the results of the third global energy and water cycle experiment atmospheric boundary layer Study intercomparison and evaluation study for single-column models. Each of the nineteen participating models was operated with its own physics package, including land-surface, radiation and turbulent mixing schemes, for a full diurnal cycle selected from the Cabauw observatory archive. By carefully prescribing the temporal evolution of the forcings on the vertical column, the models could be evaluated against observations. We focus on the gross features of the stable boundary layer (SBL), such as the onset of evening momentum decoupling, the 2-m minimum temperature, the evolution of the inertial oscillation and the morning transition. New process diagrams are introduced to interpret the variety of model results and the relative importance of processes in the SBL; the diagrams include the results of a number of sensitivity runs performed with one of the models. The models are characterized in terms of thermal coupling to the soil, longwave radiation and turbulent mixing. It is shown that differences in longwave radiation schemes among the models have only a small effect on the simulations; however, there are significant variations in downward radiation due to different boundary-layer profiles of temperature and humidity. The differences in modelled thermal coupling to the land surface are large and explain most of the variations in 2-m air temperature and longwave incoming radiation among models. Models with strong turbulent mixing overestimate the boundary-layer height, underestimate the wind speed at 200 m, and give a relatively large downward sensible heat flux. The result is that 2-m air temperature is relatively insensitive to turbulent mixing intensity. Evening transition times spread 1.5 h around the observed time of transition, with later transitions for models with coarse resolution. Time of onset in the morning transition spreads 2 h around the observed transition time. With this case, the morning transition appeared to be difficult to study, no relation could be found between the studied processes, and the variation in the time of the morning transition among the models.  相似文献   

Changing patterns of residential and workplace segregation in the Stockholm metropolitan area     

Szymon Marcińczak  Tiit Tammaru  Magnus Strömgren  Urban Lindgren 《Urban geography》2013,34(7):969-992

Immigrant–native segregation is present in the spaces in which individuals from different ethnic/racial groups practice their everyday lives; interact with others and develop their ethnic, social and spatial networks. The overwhelming majority of academic research on immigrant segregation has focused on the residential domain, thus largely overlooking other arenas of daily interaction. The present study contributes to the emerging literature on immigrant residential and workplace segregation by examining changes in patterns of residential and workplace segregation over time. We draw our data from the Stockholm metropolitan region, Sweden’s main port of entry for immigrants. The results suggest a close association between residential and workplace segregation. Immigrant groups that are more segregated at home are also more segregated in workplace neighborhoods. More importantly, we found that a changing segregation level in one domain tends to involve a similar trend in the other domain.  相似文献   

Improved moraine age interpretations through explicit matching of geomorphic process models to cosmogenic nuclide measurements from single landforms     

Patrick J. Applegate  Nathan M. Urban  Klaus Keller  Thomas V. Lowell  Benjamin J.C. Laabs  Meredith A. Kelly  Richard B. Alley 《Quaternary Research》2012,77(2):293-304

The statistical distributions of cosmogenic nuclide measurements from moraine boulders contain previously unused information on moraine ages, and they help determine whether moraine degradation or inheritance is more important on individual moraines. Here, we present a method for extracting this information by fitting geomorphic process models to observed exposure ages from single moraines. We also apply this method to 94 ¹⁰Be apparent exposure ages from 11 moraines reported in four published studies. Our models represent ¹⁰Be accumulation in boulders that are exhumed over time by slope processes (moraine degradation), and the delivery of boulders with preexisting ¹⁰Be inventories to moraines (inheritance). For now, we neglect boulder erosion and snow cover, which are likely second-order processes. Given a highly scattered data set, we establish which model yields the better fit to the data, and estimate the age of the moraine from the better model fit. The process represented by the better-fitting model is probably responsible for most of the scatter among the apparent ages. Our methods should help resolve controversies in exposure dating; we reexamine the conclusions from two published studies based on our model fits.  相似文献