Expert views - and disagreements - about the potential of energy technology R&D     

Laura Diaz Anadon  Erin Baker  Valentina Bosetti  Lara Aleluia Reis 《Climatic change》2016,136(3-4):677-691

Mitigating climate change will require innovation in energy technologies. Policy makers are faced with the question of how to promote this innovation, and whether to focus on a few technologies or to spread their bets. We present results on the extent to which public R&D might shape the future cost of energy technologies by 2030. We bring together three major expert elicitation efforts carried out by researchers at UMass Amherst, Harvard, and FEEM, covering nuclear, solar, Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), bioelectricity, and biofuels. The results show experts believe that there will be cost reductions resulting from R&D and report median cost reductions around 20 % for most of the technologies at the R&D budgets considered. Although the improvements associated to solar and CCS R&D show some promise, the lack of consensus across studies, and the larger magnitude of the R&D investment involved in these technologies, calls for caution when defining what technologies would benefit the most from additional public R&D. In order to make R&D funding decisions to meet particular goals, such as mitigating climate change or improving energy security, or to estimate the social returns to R&D, policy makers need to combine the information provided in this study on cost reduction potentials with an analysis of the macroeconomic implications of these technological changes. We conclude with recommendations for future directions on energy expert elicitations.  相似文献   

High rate GPS data on active volcanoes: an application to the 2005–2006 Mt. Augustine (Alaska,USA) eruption     

Mario Mattia  Mimmo Palano  Marco Aloisi  Valentina Bruno  Yehuda Bock 《地学学报》2008,20(2):134-140

Volcanic eruptions are usually preceded by measurable signals of growing unrest, the most evident of which are the increase in seismicity and ground deformation. It is also important to identify precursors of a possible renewal of the volcanic activity and to distinguish between an eruptive activity characterized by an intrusion (with the related destructive power) and a migration of magma stored in the main conduits. The 2005–2006 eruption at Mt. Augustine (Alaska, USA) is a good example of a massive migration of magmatic fluids from depth (about 1 km b.s.l.) under the effect of gas overpressure. The movements, recorded by High Rate GPS (HRGPS) data (15 s of sampling and processing rate) from the stations deployed on the volcano, define the dimensions and the characteristics of the shallow plumbing system. In this study, we propose a model of the different stages preceding the effusive phase (the ‘precursory phase’), where gas overpressure in the body of the volcano opens the terminal conduit.  相似文献   

Drivers of interannual and intra‐annual variability of dissolved organic carbon concentration in the River Thames between 1884 and 2013     

Valentina Noacco  Christopher J. Duffy  Thorsten Wagener  Fred Worrall  Matteo Fasiolo  Nicholas J.K. Howden 《水文研究》2019,33(6):994-1012

The world's longest record of river water quality (River Thames—130 years) provides a unique opportunity to understand fluvial dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations dynamics. Understanding riverine DOC variability through long‐term studies is crucial to capture patterns and drivers influencing sources of DOC at scales relevant for decision making. The Thames basin (United Kingdom) has undergone massive land‐use change, as well as increased urbanisation and population during the period considered. We aimed to investigate the drivers of intra‐annual to interannual DOC variability, assess the variability due to natural and anthropogenic factors, and understand the causes for the increased DOC variability over the period. Two approaches were used to achieve these aims. The first method was singular spectrum analysis, which was used to reconstruct the major oscillatory modes of DOC, hydroclimatic variables, and atmospheric circulation patterns and to visualise the interaction between these variables. The second approach used was generalised additive modelling, which was used to investigate other non‐natural drivers of DOC variability. Our study shows that DOC variability increased by 80% over the data period, with the greatest increase occurring from the beginning of World War II onwards. The primary driver of the increase in DOC variability was the increase in the average value of fluvial DOC over the period of record, which was itself linked to the increase in basin population and diffuse DOC sources to the river due to land‐use and land‐management changes. Seasonal DOC variability was linked to streamflow and temperature. Our study allows to identify drivers of fluvial intra‐annual and interannual DOC variability and therefore empowers actions to reduce high DOC concentrations.  相似文献   

Users’ perception analysis for sustainable beach management in Italy     

Valentina Marin  Francesca Palmisani  Roberta Ivaldi  Rosanna Dursi  Mauro Fabiano 《Ocean & Coastal Management》2009,52(5):268-277

It is generally accepted that end-users’ perception is likely to play a pivotal role for planning and policy consideration. Beach user analysis is thus an important component defining beach management policies. In the framework of a wider project on beaches management, an investigation on residents and tourists was conducted. A survey conducted through questionnaires and interviews was carried out in six coastal municipalities. Results allowed obtaining a clear picture about user profile, perception of the beaches, awareness and attitude about themes related to beach management (i.e. Blue Flag award and beach nourishment practices). Their integration with the “expert knowledge” based analysis allowed to support the definition of beach management interventions.  相似文献   

Environmental impacts of household appliances in Europe and scenarios for their impact reduction     

Roland Hischier  Francesca Reale  Valentina Castellani  Serenella Sala 《Chemie der Erde / Geochemistry》2012

Assessing the environmental impact due to consumption of goods and services is a pivotal step towards achieving the sustainable development goal related to responsible production and consumption (i.e. SDG 12). Household appliances plays a crucial role and should be assessed in a systemic manner, namely considering all life cycle stages, technological efficiency, and affluence aspects. The present study assess the impact of such household appliances used in Europe, and tests scenarios of potential impact reduction at various scales. Life cycle assessment is applied to 14 different household appliances (ranging from dishwashers to television devices) selected to build a set of representative products, based on their economic value and diffusion in households in Europe. Related impacts are calculated with the Environmental Footprint method for calculating a Consumer Footprint “appliances” for the baseline year 2010. A number of scenarios encompassing eco-solutions on a technical level, changes in consumption pattern, behavioral changes, as well as the combination of all these aspects are run to estimate the Consumer Footprint related to household appliances for the year 2030, compared against this baseline scenario. The baseline Consumer Footprint is confirming the importance of the use phase in leading the impacts in almost all impact categories. Testing different scenarios concludes that there is a reduction of the impact for most of the categories (with up to 67% for the ozone depletion potential, and still around 35% for the global warming potential), while two of the here examined impact categories (i.e. land-use and mineral resource depletion) show an overall potential that is even negative – i.e. the results of all scenarios are higher than the ones of the 2010 baseline scenario. The increase in purchase and use of such appliances may offset energy efficiency benefits in some of the examined categories. Hence, the assessment of sustainability of appliances consumption should always include several scales, from the efficiency of the products (micro scale), to the improvement of the energy mix (meso scale), up to accounting for socio-economic drivers and patterns of consumption affecting the overall appliances stock (macro scale).  相似文献   

Optical Counterparts of Undetermined Type <Emphasis Type="Italic">γ</Emphasis>-Ray Active Galactic Nuclei with Blazar-Like Spectral Energy Distributions     

Giovanni?La?Mura  Graziano?Chiaro  Stefano?Ciroi  Piero?Rafanelli  David?Salvetti  Marco?Berton  Valentina?Cracco 《Journal of Astrophysics and Astronomy》2015,36(4)

During its first four years of scientific observations, the Fermi Large Area Telescope (Fermi-LAT) detected 3033 γ-ray sources above a 4 σ significance level. Although most of the extra-galactic sources are active galactic nuclei (AGN) of the blazar class, other families of AGNs are observed too, while a still high fraction of detections (～30%) remains with uncertain association or classification. According to the currently accepted interpretation, the AGN γ-ray emission arises from inverse Compton (IC) scattering of low energy photons by relativistic particles confined in a jet, which, in the case of blazars, is oriented very close to our line-of-sight. Taking advantage of data from radio and X-ray wavelengths, which we expect to be produced together with γ-rays, providing a much better source localization potential, we focused our attention on a sample of γ-ray Blazar Candidates of Undetermined type (BCUs), starting a campaign of optical spectroscopic observations. The main aims of our investigation include a census of the AGN families that contribute to γ-ray emission and a study of their redshift distribution, with the subsequent implications on the intrinsic source power. We furthermore analyze which γ-ray properties can better constrain the nature of the source, thus helping in the study of objects not yet associated with a reliable low frequency counterpart. Here we report on the instruments and techniques used to identify the optical counterparts of γ-ray sources, we give an overview on the status of our work, and we discuss the implications of a large scale study of γ-ray emitting AGNs.  相似文献   

Chemical abundances in QSO host galaxies and environments from narrow absorption line systems     

Valentina D'Odorico  Stefano Cristiani  Donatella Romano  Gian Luigi Granato  Luigi Danese 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2004,351(3):976-988

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Topological changes of the photospheric magnetic field inside active regions: A prelude to flares?     

Luca Sorriso-Valvo  Vincenzo Carbone  Valentina I. Abramenko  Alain Noullez  Annick Pouquet 《Planetary and Space Science》2004,52(10):937-943

The detection of magnetic field variations as a signature of flaring activity is one of the main goals in solar physics. Past efforts gave apparently no unambiguous observations of systematic changes. In the present study, we discuss recent results from observations that scaling laws of turbulent current helicity inside a given flaring active region change in response to large flares in that active region. Such changes can be related to the evolution of current structures by a simple geometrical argument, which has been tested using high Reynolds number direct numerical simulations of the MHD equations. Interpretation of the observed data within this picture indicates that the change in scaling behavior of the current helicity seems to be associated with a topological reorganization of the footpoint of the magnetic field loops, namely with the dissipation of small scales structures in turbulent media.  相似文献   

Global sensitivity analysis through polynomial chaos expansion of a basin-scale geochemical compaction model     

Luca Formaggia  Alberto Guadagnini  Ilaria Imperiali  Valentina Lever  Giovanni Porta  Monica Riva  Anna Scotti  Lorenzo Tamellini 《Computational Geosciences》2013,17(1):25-42

We present a model-driven uncertainty quantification methodology based on sparse grid sampling techniques in the context of a generalized polynomial chaos expansion (GPCE) approximation of a basin-scale geochemical evolution scenario. The approach is illustrated through a one-dimensional example involving the process of quartz cementation in sandstones and the resulting effects on the dynamics of the vertical distribution of porosity, pressure, and temperature. The proposed theoretical framework and computational tools allow performing an efficient and accurate global sensitivity analysis (GSA) of the system states (i.e., porosity, temperature, pressure, and fluxes) in the presence of uncertain key mechanical and geochemical model parameters as well as boundary conditions. GSA is grounded on the use of the variance-based Sobol indices. These allow discriminating the relative weights of uncertain quantities on the global model variance and can be computed through the GPCE of the model response. Evaluation of the GPCE of the model response is performed through the implementation of a sparse grid approximation technique in the space of the selected uncertain quantities. GPCE is then be employed as a surrogate model of the system states to quantify uncertainty propagation through the model in terms of the probability distribution (and its statistical moments) of target system states.  相似文献   

Beyond REDD+ readiness: land-use governance to reduce deforestation in Peru     

Valentina Robiglio  Angel Daniel Armas  Claudia Silva Aguad  Douglas White 《Climate Policy》2014,14(6):734-747

Peru contains the fourth largest area of tropical forest in the world, yet faces a worsening net deforestation rate. In 2008, to address this threat, the national government announced its ambition to reduce deforestation to zero by 2021. Via literature review and key informant interviews, this study assess two years of REDD+ readiness preparations according to six readiness functions. A mixed pattern of outcomes emerge. Although significant advances were made by various local-level initiatives, national-level efforts continue to struggle. Three crucial challenges persist: (1) greater involvement and coordination of ministries and government agencies associated with REDD+ planning, (2) better understanding of deforestation agents and drivers, and (3) integration of REDD+ policies into national and regional plans, which includes clarification of safeguard procedures and design of incentive mechanisms. Integrated land use planning is presented as a platform to foster dialogue that helps to reconcile divergent stakeholder perspectives, coordinate changes to land use, and resolve overlapping land rights.

Policy relevance

This article presents the outcomes of a multi-dimensional assessment of the REDD+ readiness process in Peru. The six key functions in the analytical framework provide the opportunity to evaluate the process in an integrated and systematic manner and highlights the persistence of complex, transversal governance challenges across diverse economic sectors and government agencies. Research findings also reveal a need for policy change and continued investment to ensure success of the national process in Peru. Strong leadership is needed to generate consensus in cross-sectoral negotiations and to establish coordinated land governance and monitoring mechanisms.  相似文献