We present a method to determine lower and upper bounds to the predicted production or any other economic objective from history-matched reservoir models. The method consists of two steps: 1) performing a traditional computer-assisted history match of a reservoir model with the objective to minimize the mismatch between predicted and observed production data through adjusting the grid block permeability values of the model. 2) performing two optimization exercises to minimize and maximize an economic objective over the remaining field life, for a fixed production strategy, by manipulating the same grid block permeabilities, however without significantly changing the mismatch obtained under step 1. This is accomplished through a hierarchical optimization procedure that limits the solution space of a secondary optimization problem to the (approximate) null space of the primary optimization problem. We applied this procedure to two different reservoir models. We performed a history match based on synthetic data, starting from a uniform prior and using a gradient-based minimization procedure. After history matching, minimization and maximization of the net present value (NPV), using a fixed control strategy, were executed as secondary optimization problems by changing the model parameters while staying close to the null space of the primary optimization problem. In other words, we optimized the secondary objective functions, while requiring that optimality of the primary objective (a good history match) was preserved. This method therefore provides a way to quantify the economic consequences of the well-known problem that history matching is a strongly ill-posed problem. We also investigated how this method can be used as a means to assess the cost-effectiveness of acquiring different data types to reduce the uncertainty in the expected NPV. 相似文献
Global navigation satellite systems such as the Global Positioning System (GPS) is one of the most important sensors for movement analysis. GPS is widely used to record the trajectories of vehicles, animals and human beings. However, all GPS movement data are affected by both measurement and interpolation errors. In this article we show that measurement error causes a systematic bias in distances recorded with a GPS; the distance between two points recorded with a GPS is – on average – bigger than the true distance between these points. This systematic ‘overestimation of distance’ becomes relevant if the influence of interpolation error can be neglected, which in practice is the case for movement sampled at high frequencies. We provide a mathematical explanation of this phenomenon and illustrate that it functionally depends on the autocorrelation of GPS measurement error (C). We argue that C can be interpreted as a quality measure for movement data recorded with a GPS. If there is a strong autocorrelation between any two consecutive position estimates, they have very similar error. This error cancels out when average speed, distance or direction is calculated along the trajectory. Based on our theoretical findings we introduce a novel approach to determine C in real-world GPS movement data sampled at high frequencies. We apply our approach to pedestrian trajectories and car trajectories. We found that the measurement error in the data was strongly spatially and temporally autocorrelated and give a quality estimate of the data. Most importantly, our findings are not limited to GPS alone. The systematic bias and its implications are bound to occur in any movement data collected with absolute positioning if interpolation error can be neglected. 相似文献
Nature-based solutions are rapidly gaining interest in the face of global change and increasing flood risks. While assessments of flood risk mitigation by coastal ecosystems are mainly restricted to local scales, our study assesses the contribution of salt marshes and mangroves to nature-based storm surge mitigation in 11 large deltas around the world. We present a relatively simple GIS model that, based on globally available input data, provides an estimation of the tidal wetland’s capacity of risk mitigation at a regional scale. It shows the high potential of nature-based solutions, as tidal wetlands, to provide storm surge mitigation to more than 80% of the flood-exposed land area for 4 of the 11 deltas and to more than 70% of the flood-exposed population for 3 deltas. The magnitude of the nature-based mitigation, estimated as the length of the storm surge pathway crossing through tidal wetlands, was found to be significantly correlated to the total wetland area within a delta. This highlights the importance of conserving extensive continuous tidal wetlands as a nature-based approach to mitigate flood risks. Our analysis further reveals that deltas with limited historical wetland reclamation and therefore large remaining wetlands, such as the Mississippi, the Niger, and part of the Ganges-Brahmaputra deltas, benefit from investing in the conservation of their vast wetlands, while deltas with extensive historical wetland reclamation, such as the Yangtze and Rhine deltas, may improve the sustainability of flood protection programs by combining existing hard engineering with new nature-based solutions through restoration of former wetlands. 相似文献
The results of studying the features of the hydrogeological structure and chemical and isotope composition of thermal waters from the central part of Vietnam that are characterized by intense manifestations of intrusive magmatism are presented. It is established that low–and high–thermal waters with temperature varying within 30–85°C are developed in the area under study. The value of total mineralization of the hydrotherms ranges from 0.05 to 10.05 g/dm3. It is assumed that the circulation of thermal waters that are different in temperature and chemical composition occurs at two levels. The regular change of the hydrotherm composition in the direction from mineralized chloride sodium, including with increased Ca content, to fresh sodium bicarbonate is revealed. The ratio of δ18O–δ2H isotopes indicates that the water component is based on meteoric water. In the coastal areas, there is an isotope shift towards the ocean waters, which is also confirmed by the hydrogeochemical data. The key factors for forming the chemical composition of the thermal waters in South Trungbo are their genetic type, the interaction processes in the “water–rock–gas–organic substance” system, and their equilibrium–nonequilibrium state. 相似文献
This paper documents the application of a microdiamond-based approach to the estimation of diamond grade in the Pipe 1 kimberlite at the Koidu mine in Sierra Leone. A geological model of Pipe 1 was constructed to represent the distribution and volume of the dominant kimberlite units within the pipe. Bulk samples, along with representative microdiamond samples, were collected from these units at surface and were used to define the ratio between microdiamond stone frequency (+212 μm stones per kilogram) and recoverable macrodiamond grade (+1.2 mm carats per tonne; 1 carat = 0.2 g). These ratios were applied to a comprehensive, spatially representative microdiamond sample dataset and were combined with a spatial model of country-rock xenolith dilution within the pipe to estimate +1.2 mm recoverable grades. The resource estimate was reconciled with subsequent production results in the elevation range 160 to 100 m above sea level. Production results for each of the six 10 m benches covering this elevation range were compared to the estimated average grades for these zones in the pipe. For the five cases where most of the kimberlite mass on a given bench is represented in the production data, the results show a maximum discrepancy of 6% between predicted and reported production grade with no indication of any consistent bias. This indicates that, when supported by a sound geological model and suitable microdiamond and macrodiamond data, the microdiamond-based estimation approach can provide reliable constraints on macrodiamond grade, even in the case of geologically complex bodies such as Koidu Pipe 1.
Concern about climate change has motivated France to reduce its reliance on fossil fuel by setting targets for increased biomass-based renewable energy production. This study quantifies the carbon costs and benefits for the French forestry sector in meeting these targets. A forest growth and harvest simulator was developed for French forests using recent forest inventory data, and the wood-use chain was reconstructed from national wood product statistics. We then projected wood production, bioenergy production, and carbon balance for three realistic intensification scenarios and a business-as-usual scenario. These intensification scenarios targeted either overstocked, harvest-delayed or currently actively managed stands.
Results
All three intensification strategies produced 11.6–12.4 million tonnes of oil equivalent per year of wood-based energy by 2026, which corresponds to the target assigned to French wood-energy to meet the EU 2020 renewable energy target. Sustaining this level past 2026 will be challenging, let alone further increasing it. Although energy production targets can be reached, the management intensification required will degrade the near-term carbon balance of the forestry sector, compared to continuing present-day management. Even for the best-performing intensification strategy, i.e., reducing the harvest diameter of actively managed stands, the carbon benefits would only become apparent after 2040. The carbon balance of a strategy putting abandoned forests back into production would only break even by 2055; the carbon balance from increasing thinning in managed but untended stands would not break even within the studied time periods, i.e. 2015–2045 and 2046–2100. Owing to the temporal dynamics in the components of the carbon balance, i.e., the biomass stock in the forest, the carbon stock in wood products, and substitution benefits, the merit order of the examined strategies varies over time.
Conclusions
No single solution was found to improve the carbon balance of the forestry sector by 2040 in a way that also met energy targets. We therefore searched for the intensification scenario that produces energy at the lowest carbon cost. Reducing rotation time of actively managed stands is slightly more efficient than targeting harvest-delayed stands, but in both cases, each unit of energy produced has a carbon cost that only turns into a benefit between 2060 and 2080.
Natural Hazards - Vietnam’s central coastal region is the most vulnerable and always at flood risk, severely affecting people’s livelihoods and socio-economic development. In... 相似文献
Investigations of Lateglacial to Early Holocene lake sediments from the Nahe palaeolake (northern Germany) provided a high-resolution palynological record. To increase the temporal resolution of the record a targeted search for cryptotephra was carried out on the basis of pollen stratigraphy. Three cryptotephra horizons were detected and geochemically identified as G10ka series tephra (a Saksunarvatn Ash), Vedde Ash and Laacher See Tephra. Here we present the first geochemically confirmed finding of the ash from the Laacher See Eruption in Schleswig-Holstein—extending the so far detected fallout fan of the eruption further to the north-west. These finds enable direct stratigraphical correlations and underline the potential of the site for further investigations. 相似文献
In the field of mineral resources extraction, one main challenge is to meet production targets in terms of geometallurgical properties. These properties influence the processing of the ore and are often represented in resource modeling by coregionalized variables with a complex relationship between them. Valuable data are available about geometalurgical properties and their interaction with the beneficiation process given sensor technologies during production monitoring. The aim of this research is to update resource models as new observations become available. A popular method for updating is the ensemble Kalman filter. This method relies on Gaussian assumptions and uses a set of realizations of the simulated models to derive sample covariances that can propagate the uncertainty between real observations and simulated ones. Hence, the relationship among variables has a compositional nature, such that updating these models while keeping the compositional constraints is a practical requirement in order to improve the accuracy of the updated models. This paper presents an updating framework for compositional data based on ensemble Kalman filter which allows us to work with compositions that are transformed into a multivariate Gaussian space by log-ratio transformation and flow anamorphosis. This flow anamorphosis, transforms the distribution of the variables to joint normality while reasonably keeping the dependencies between components. Furthermore, the positiveness of those variables, after updating the simulated models, is satisfied. The method is implemented in a bauxite deposit, demonstrating the performance of the proposed approach.