Selection of the data time interval for the prediction of maximum ozone concentrations     

Ju??KocijanEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile  Dejan?Gradi?ar  Martin?Stepan?i?  Marija?Zlata?Bo?nar  Bo?tjan?Gra?i?  Primo??Mlakar 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2018,32(6):1759-1770

This paper highlights the problem of step-length selection for the one-step-ahead prediction of ozone called the data time interval. This is done using a case study-based comparison of two approaches for predicting the maximum daily values of tropospheric ozone. The first approach is the 1-day-ahead prediction and the second is the prediction of the maximum values based on a multi-step-ahead iteration of 1-h predictions. Gaussian process modelling is utilised for this comparison. In particular, evolving Gaussian-process models are used that update on-line with the incoming measurement data. These sorts of models have been successfully used in the past for the prediction of ozone pollution. This paper contributes an assessment of the way that the maximum ozone values are predicted. A comparison of the daily maximum ozone values forecasted by a model based on 1-day-ahead predictions with those obtained by iterated 1-h-ahead predictions of the ozone with predictions at predetermined hours of the day is given. The forecast results are in favour of the on-line model based on hourly predictions when approaching closer to the real maximum values of ozone, and in favour of the daily predictions when they are made on a daily basis.  相似文献   

A simplified methodology for the seismic assessment of masonry buildings with RC slabs     

Jorge M. Proença  António S. Gago  Filipa Chaves 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2018,16(1):377-395

The present paper aims to contribute to the knowledge concerning the seismic assessment of load bearing masonry buildings with reinforced concrete slabs. The final goal of the present research was to propose a simple, yet accurate, methodology to assess the seismic safety of existing masonry buildings. The methodology here presented was based on the so-called ICIST/ACSS methodology with major improvements such as the extension to load bearing masonry wall buildings and the consideration of the effects of one of the most common strengthening solutions for masonry walls, here referred to as reinforced plastering mortar, as well as the possibility of considering four levels of increasing refinement: global, by alignment, by wall panel and by wall element. An extended research was performed on the existing methodologies to evaluate the seismic structural risk of load bearing masonry buildings, briefly describing methodologies similar to the one proposed, namely all of those that have in common the fact that they are based in the physical comparison between the resisting and acting shear forces at all storeys and along the two orthogonal horizontal directions. A case study is presented to check the applicability of the proposed methodology. The case study showed that the proposed methodology is relatively simple to apply and has a sufficiently good accuracy when compared with alternative methodologies. The degree of refinement of the analysis (global, by alignment, by wall panel and by wall element) must be taken into consideration and successively more complex analyses may be required when the results of simpler analyses are inconclusive.  相似文献   

Characterizing the active tectonics in the Oran region (Algeria) and recasting the 1790 earthquake     

Imene Meriem Benbakhti  Said Maouche  Djelloul Belhai  Assia Harbi  Jean-François Ritz  Ghilles Rabai  Ahmed Rezouk  Fawzi Doumaz 《Journal of Seismology》2018,22(6):1549-1561

In this work, we reappraise the seismogenic potential of the geologic structures in the western Tell Atlas of Algeria, considered active host to moderate to low magnitude earthquakes. The direct identification of active faults is generally a difficult task in northern Algeria. The active tectonics in the Oran Plio-Quaternary age basin (Northwestern Algeria) is analyzed and characterized through a morpho-structural study combining topographic, geomorphologic, geological, and neotectonic data. Folds and fault scarps affecting Quaternary deposits show that the region is affected by compressional deformation still active nowadays, as shown by the recorded seismic activity. Our new observations enable a better understanding of the present seismotectonic context of the Oran region, particularly with regard to the magnitude and source of the 1790 Oran damaging event. The obtained result helps to shed some light on the elusive active tectonics characterizing this coastal area, and to assess regional seismic hazard, particularly in coastal zones where large seismogenic areas straddle the onshore–offshore zones.  相似文献   

Bioturbation and erosion rates along the soil-hillslope conveyor belt,part 2: Quantification using an analytical solution of the diffusion–advection equation     

Andrea Román-Sánchez  Ana Laguna  Tony Reimann  Juan Vicente Giráldez  Adolfo Peña  Tom Vanwalleghem 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2019,44(10):2066-2080

Particles on soil-mantled hillslopes are subject to downslope transport by erosion processes and vertical mixing by bioturbation. Both are key processes for understanding landscape evolution and soil formation, and affect the functioning of the critical zone. We show here how the depth–age information, derived from feldspar-based single grain post-infrared infrared stimulated luminescence (pIRIR), can be used to simultaneously quantify erosion and bioturbation processes along a hillslope. In this study, we propose, for the first time, an analytical solution for the diffusion–advection equation to calculate the diffusivity constant and erosion–deposition rates. We have fitted this model to age–depth data derived from 15 soil samples from four soil profiles along a catena located under natural grassland in the Santa Clotilde Critical Zone Observatory, in the south of Spain. A global sensitivity analysis was used to assess the relative importance of each model parameter in the output. Finally, the posterior probability density functions were calculated to evaluate the uncertainty in the model parameter estimates. The results show that the diffusivity constant at the surface varies from 11.4 to 81.9 mm² a^-1 for the hilltop and hill-base profile, respectively, and between 7.4 and 64.8 mm² a^-1 at 50 cm depth. The uncertainty in the estimation of the erosion–deposition rates was found to be too high to make a reliable estimate, probably because erosion–deposition processes are much slower than bioturbation processes in this environment. This is confirmed by a global sensitivity analysis that shows how the most important parameters controlling the age–depth structure in this environment are the diffusivity constant and regolith depth. Finally, we have found a good agreement between the soil reworking rates proposed by earlier studies, considering only particle age and depth, and the estimated diffusivity constants. The soil reworking rates are effective rates, corrected for the proportion of particles actually participating in the process. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Possible climatic controls on the accumulation of Peru's most prominent alluvial fan: The Lima Conglomerate     

Camille Litty  Fritz Schlunegger  Naki Akçar  Pierre Lanari  Marcus Christl  Christof Vockenhuber 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2019,44(5):991-1003

Sediment accumulation can occur in response to a change in either tectonic or climatic driving forces. Here, we explore these controls on the deposition of the Lima Conglomerate, Peru. We use a combination of quantitative methods to explore the age of sediment accumulation, the provenance of the material and the paleo-erosion rates recorded by these deposits. Isochron burial dating with cosmogenic ¹⁰Be and ²⁶Al yield an age of c. 500 ka for the base (490 ± 70 ka) and the uppermost sample situated c. 30 m higher upsection (490 ± 80 ka). Results of paleo-erosion rate estimates with concentrations of in situ ¹⁰Be show a c. 60% increase from 105 ± 10 mm ka^-1 for the base to 169 ± 14 mm ka^-1 for the uppermost sample. Finally, provenance tracing with in situ U/Pb ages on detrital zircon implies that the material has been derived from the entire drainage basin. The combination of results suggests that sediment accumulation occurred in response to an erosional pulse, which affected the entire basin within a short time interval. Because ¹⁰Be data represents a large spatial record of erosion, we exclude the possibility where a breakout of a lake or a focused release of material in response to earthquakes, were responsible for the large material flux. Instead, the erosional pulse was likely to have occurred at the scale of the entire basin, supporting the idea of a larger-scale, most likely climate driven control. In this context, the accumulation age of c. 500 ka falls into an orbital cycle fostering the emerging picture in the literature that sediment routing in the Andes have most likely been driven by climate and cyclic changes. We suggest that the Andean mountain range offers an ideal laboratory to explore the erosional history in relation to climate patterns, at least in Peru. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Forward stratigraphic modelling of sediment pathways and depocentres in salt‐influenced passive‐margin basins: Lower Cretaceous,central Scotian Basin     

Christopher Sangster  David J. W. Piper  Nicolas Hawie  Georgia Pe‐Piper  Francky Saint‐Ange 《Basin Research》2019,31(4):728-753

Source‐to‐sink studies and numerical modelling software are increasingly used to better understand sedimentary basins, and to predict sediment distributions. However, predictive modelling remains problematic in basins dominated by salt tectonics. The Lower Cretaceous delta system of the Scotian Basin is well suited for source‐to‐sink studies and provides an opportunity to apply this approach to a region experiencing active salt tectonism. This study uses forward stratigraphic modelling software and statistical analysis software to produce predictive stratigraphic models of the central Scotian Basin, test their sensitivity to different input parameters, assess proposed provenance pathways, and determine the distribution of sand and factors that control sedimentation in the basin. Models have been calibrated against reference wells and seismic surfaces, and implement a multidisciplinary approach to define simulation parameters. Simulation results show that previously proposed provenance pathways for the Early Cretaceous can be used to generate predictive stratigraphic models, which simulate the overall sediment distribution for the central Scotian Basin. Modelling confirms that the shaly nature of the Naskapi Member is the result of tectonic diversion of the Sable and Banquereau rivers and suggests additional episodic diversion during the deposition of the Cree Member. Sand is dominantly trapped on the shelf in all units, with transport into the basin along salt corridors and as a result of turbidity current flows occurring in the Upper Missisauga Formation and Cree Member. This led to sand accumulation in minibasins with a large deposit seawards of the Tantallon M‐41 well. Sand also appears to bypass the basin via salt corridors which lead to the down‐slope edge of the study area. Sensitivity analysis suggests that the grain size of source sediments to the system is the controlling factor of sand distribution. The methodology applied to this basin has applications to other regions complicated by salt tectonics, and where sediment distribution and transport from source‐to‐sink remain unclear.  相似文献   

Frequent subgraph mining in oceanographic multi-level directed graphs     

Boris Petelin  Igor Kononenko  Vlado Malačič  Matjaž Kukar 《International journal of geographical information science》2019,33(10):1936-1959

We present an adaptation and application of frequent subgraph mining (FSM) in a time series of spatial multi-level directed graphs depicting probabilistic transitions of water masses between neighboring sea areas within a given time interval. The directed graphs are created from the results of the numerical model, the Mediterranean Ocean Forecasting System. We assign unique labels (geographical locations) to vertices of the multi-level directed graphs. Then, we add the edge labels as discretized values of the probabilities of transitions between vertices. This modification allows the use of the established algorithm gSpan to search for frequently directed subgraphs in the sequence of such directed graphs. Thus, we obtain both general and specific subgraphs, such as convergences, divergences, and paths of the ocean currents in the numerical model. The resulting substructures, revealed by directed subgraphs, match oceanographic structures (gyres, convergences/divergences, and paths) deduced from field observations, and can also serve as a tool for the validation of the numerical model of circulation in the sea.  相似文献   

Solution of the radiative transfer equation for Rayleigh scattering using the infinite medium Green’s function     

M. Biçer  A. Kaşkaş 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2018,363(3):46

The infinite medium Green’s function is used to solve the half-space albedo, slab albedo and Milne problems for the unpolarized Rayleigh scattering case; these problems are the most classical problems of radiative transfer theory. The numerical results are obtained and are compared with previous ones.  相似文献   

The 2015 Summer Solstice Storm: One of the Major Geomagnetic Storms of Solar Cycle 24 Observed at Ground Level     

C. R. A. Augusto  C. E. Navia  M. N. de Oliveira  A. A. Nepomuceno  J. P. Raulin  E. Tueros  R. R. S. de Mendonça  A. C. Fauth  H. Vieira de Souza  V. Kopenkin  T. Sinzi 《Solar physics》2018,293(5):84

We report on the 22?–?23 June 2015 geomagnetic storm that occurred at the summer solstice. There have been fewer intense geomagnetic storms during the current solar cycle, Solar Cycle 24, than in the previous cycle. This situation changed after mid-June 2015, when one of the largest solar active regions (AR 12371) of Solar Cycle 24 that was located close to the central meridian, produced several coronal mass ejections (CMEs) associated with M-class flares. The impact of these CMEs on the Earth’s magnetosphere resulted in a moderate to severe G4-class geomagnetic storm on 22?–?23 June 2015 and a G2 (moderate) geomagnetic storm on 24 June. The G4 solstice storm was the second largest (so far) geomagnetic storm of Cycle 24. We highlight the ground-level observations made with the New-Tupi, Muonca, and the CARPET El Leoncito cosmic-ray detectors that are located within the South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA) region. These observations are studied in correlation with data obtained by space-borne detectors (ACE, GOES, SDO, and SOHO) and other ground-based experiments. The CME designations are taken from the Computer Aided CME Tracking (CACTus) automated catalog. As expected, Forbush decreases (FD) associated with the passing CMEs were recorded by these detectors. We note a peculiar feature linked to a severe geomagnetic storm event. The 21 June 2015 CME 0091 (CACTus CME catalog number) was likely associated with the 22 June summer solstice FD event. The angular width of CME 0091 was very narrow and measured \({\sim}\, 56^{\circ }\) degrees seen from Earth. In most cases, only CME halos and partial halos lead to severe geomagnetic storms. We perform a cross-check analysis of the FD events detected during the rise phase of Solar Cycle 24, the geomagnetic parameters, and the CACTus CME catalog. Our study suggests that narrow angular-width CMEs that erupt in a westward direction from the Sun–Earth line can lead to moderate and severe geomagnetic storms. We also report on the strong solar proton radiation storm that began on 21 June. We did not find a signal from this SEP at ground level. The details of these observations are presented.  相似文献   

Surface-sediment and epilithic diatom pH calibration sets for remote European mountain lakes (AL:PE Project) and their comparison with the Surface Waters Acidification Programme (SWAP) calibration set   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

N. G. Cameron  H. J. B. Birks  V. J. Jones  F. Berges  J. Catalan  R. J. Flower  J. Garcia  B. Kawecka  K. A. Koinig  A. Marchetto  P. Sánchez-Castillo  R. Schmidt  M. Šiško  N. Solovieva  E. Štefková  M. Toro 《Journal of Paleolimnology》1999,22(3):291-317

A modern diatom-pH calibration data-set consisting of surface-sediment diatom assemblages from 118 lakes and 530 taxa is presented. The AL:PE data-set is from high-altitude or high-latitude lakes in the Alps, Norway, Svalbard, Kola Peninsula, UK, Slovenia, Slovakia, Poland, Portugal, and Spain (pH range = 4.5-8.0; DOC range = 0.2-3.2 mg l^-1). In addition, 92 epilithon samples from 22 high-altitude or high-latitude lakes comprise an AL:PE epilithon diatom-pH data-set. Weighted averaging partial least squares regression is used to develop pH-inference models. The AL:PE data-set has a root-mean-square-error of prediction (RMSEP) of 0.33 and a maximum bias of 0.36 pH units and r² of 0.82, as assessed by leave-one-out cross-validation. The epilithon data-set has, after data-screening and the deletion of one very obvious outlier, a RMSEP of 0.23 and a maximum bias of 0.18 pH units and r² of 0.88. The 167 sample SWAP diatom-pH data-set from lowland or upland lakes in the UK, Norway, and Sweden has a RMSEP of 0.29 and a maximum bias of 0.23 pH units and r² of 0.86.The pH optima, as estimated by weighted averaging and Gaussian regression, are compared for the three data-sets (AL:PE, SWAP, AL:PE epilithon). There is a good correspondence between the AL:PE and the AL:PE epilithon optima, but a consistent bias between the AL:PE and SWAP optima, with the SWAP optima being lower than the AL:PE estimates.The predictive performances of the AL:PE and SWAP calibration data-sets are compared using independent test samples and six core sequences, all from high-altitude lakes, one in south-east Siberia and five in eastern Scotland. The results show the importance of using the AL:PE data-set for inferring lake-water pH from diatom assemblages in high-altitude or high latitude lakes with low DOC concentrations.  相似文献