Climate change and the water–energy–food nexus: insights from policy and practice in Tanzania     

Joanna Pardoe  Declan Conway  Emilinah Namaganda  Katharine Vincent  Andrew J. Dougill  Japhet J. Kashaigili 《Climate Policy》2018,18(7):863-877

The threat of climate change is emerging at a time of rapid growth for many economies in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Dominant narratives comprising ambitious development plans are common and often based around sectors with strong inter-dependencies that are highly exposed to climate variability. Using document analysis and key informant interviews, this article examines how climate change is addressed in policy, how it is being mainstreamed into water, energy and agriculture sector policies and the extent to which cross-sectoral linkages enable coordinated action. These questions are addressed through a case study of Tanzania, highlighting broader lessons for other developing countries, particularly those in SSA facing similar challenges. The article finds that, while the agriculture and water sectors are increasingly integrating climate change into policies and plans in Tanzania, practical coordination on adaptation remains relatively superficial. Publication of the Tanzania National Adaptation Plan of Action (NAPA) in 2007 marked a step change in the integration of climate change in sectoral policies and plans; however, it may have reinforced a sectoral approach to climate change. Examining the policies for coherence highlights overlaps and complementarities which lend themselves to a coordinated approach. Institutional constraints (particularly structures and resources) restrict opportunities for inter-sectoral action and thus collaboration is confined to ad hoc projects with mixed success to date. The results highlight the need for institutional frameworks that recognize and address these constraints to enable development goals to be pursued in a more sustainable and climate-resilient manner.

KEY POLICY INSIGHTS

• The NAPA has been successful at encouraging climate change mainstreaming into sectoral policies in Tanzania; however, the cross-sectoral collaboration crucial to implementing adaptation strategies remains limited due to institutional challenges such as power imbalances, budget constraints and an ingrained sectoral approach.

• Collaboration between nexus sectors in Tanzania is largely through ad hoc projects with limited progress on establishing deeper connections to enable collaboration as a process. Regular cross-sectoral planning meetings and consistent annual budgets could provide a platform to enhance cross-sectoral coordination.

• Plans to develop hydropower and agriculture are prevalent across sub-Saharan Africa. Insights from Tanzania highlight the importance of institutional and policy frameworks that enable cross-sectoral coordination.

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Velocity Spectra and Coherence Estimates in the Marine Atmospheric Boundary Layer     

Etienne Cheynet  Jasna B. Jakobsen  Joachim Reuder 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2018,169(3):429-460

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What dynamics drive future wind scenarios for coastal upwelling off Peru and Chile?     

Ali Belmadani  Vincent Echevin  Francis Codron  Ken Takahashi  Clémentine Junquas 《Climate Dynamics》2014,43(7-8):1893-1914

The dynamics of the Peru–Chile upwelling system (PCUS) are primarily driven by alongshore wind stress and curl, like in other eastern boundary upwelling systems. Previous studies have suggested that upwelling-favorable winds would increase under climate change, due to an enhancement of the thermally-driven cross-shore pressure gradient. Using an atmospheric model on a stretched grid with increased horizontal resolution in the PCUS, a dynamical downscaling of climate scenarios from a global coupled general circulation model (CGCM) is performed to investigate the processes leading to sea-surface wind changes. Downscaled winds associated with present climate show reasonably good agreement with climatological observations. Downscaled winds under climate change show a strengthening off central Chile south of 35°S (at 30°S–35°S) in austral summer (winter) and a weakening elsewhere. An alongshore momentum balance shows that the wind slowdown (strengthening) off Peru and northern Chile (off central Chile) is associated with a decrease (an increase) in the alongshore pressure gradient. Whereas the strengthening off Chile is likely due to the poleward displacement and intensification of the South Pacific Anticyclone, the slowdown off Peru may be associated with increased precipitation over the tropics and associated convective anomalies, as suggested by a vorticity budget analysis. On the other hand, an increase in the land–sea temperature difference is not found to drive similar changes in the cross-shore pressure gradient. Results from another atmospheric model with distinct CGCM forcing and climate scenarios suggest that projected wind changes off Peru are sensitive to concurrent changes in sea surface temperature and rainfall.  相似文献   

SARAL/AltiKa Global Statistical Assessment and Cross-Calibration with Jason-2     

Pierre Prandi  Sabine Philipps  Vincent Pignot  Nicolas Picot 《Marine Geodesy》2015,38(3):297-312

The CNES/ISRO mission SARAL/AltiKa was successfully launched on 25 February 2013. It reached its nominal orbit on 13 March 2013. AltiKa is the first altimeter using the Ka-band frequency. This article presents the results of the calibration and validation activities perfromed on the first year of the SARAL/AltiKa mission. The main objective of the article is to assess the SARAL/AltiKa data quality and to estimate the altimeter system performance using GDR products. To achieve this goal, we present mono-mission metrics and compare them with Jason-2 over the same period. Even if these missions do not have the same ground track, precise comparisons are still possible. They allow assessing parameter discrepancies and SSH consistency between both missions in order to detect geographically correlated biases, jumps or drifts. These results show that SARAL/AltiKa data quality is excellent: ocean data coverage is greater than 99.5%, standard deviation at cross-overs is 5.4 cm. The mission therefore fulfills the requirements of high precision altimetry and can be used (in conjunction with Jason-2) to monitor the global mean sea level, ensuring the continuity of the record over ERS/Envisat historical ground track. Possible improvements and open issues are also identified, foreseeing an even better mission performance.  相似文献   

CMIP5 simulated climate conditions of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA). Part II: projected climate     

Vincent O. Otieno  R. O. Anyah 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(7-8):2099-2113

This is the second of the two-part paper series on the analysis and evaluation of the Fifth phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) simulation of contemporary climate as well as IPCC, AR5 Representative Concentrations Pathways (RCP), 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios projections of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) Climate. In the first part (Otieno and Anyah in Clim Dyn, 2012) we focused on the historical simulations, whereas this second part primarily focuses on future projections based on the two scenarios. Six Earth System Models (ESMs) from CMIP5 archive have been used to characterize projected changes in seasonal and annual mean precipitation, temperature and the hydrological cycle by the middle of twenty-first century over the GHA region, based on IPCC, 5th Assessment Report (AR5) RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Nearly all the models outputs analyzed reproduce the correct mean annual cycle of precipitation, with some biases among the models in capturing the correct peak of precipitation cycle, more so, March–April–May (MAM) seasonal rainfall over the equatorial GHA region. However, there is significant variation among models in projected precipitation anomalies, with some models projecting an average increase as others project a decrease in precipitation during different seasons. The ensemble mean of the ESMs indicates that the GHA region has been experiencing a steady increase in both precipitation and temperature beginning in the early 1980s and 1970s respectively in both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Going by the ensemble means, temperatures are projected to steadily increase uniformly in all the seasons at a rate of 0.3/0.5 °C/decade under RCP4.5/8.5 scenarios over northern GHA region leading to an approximate temperature increase of 2/3 °C by the middle of the century. On the other hand, temperatures will likely increase at a rate of 0.3/0.4 °C/decade under RCP4.5/8.5 scenarios in both equatorial and southern GHA region leading to an approximate temperature increase of 2/2.5 °C by the middle of twenty-first century. Nonetheless, projected precipitation increase varied across seasons and sub-regions. With the exception of the equatorial region, that is projected to experience precipitation increase during DJF season, most sub-regions are projected to experience precipitation increase within their peak seasons, with the highest rate of increase experienced during DJF and OND seasons over southern and equatorial GHA regions respectively. Notably, as precipitation increases, the deficit (E < P) between evaporation (E) and precipitation (P) increased over the years, with a negatively skewed distribution. This generally implies that there is a high likelihood of an increased deficit in local moisture supply. This remarkable change in the general hydrological cycle (i.e. deficit in local moisture) is projected to be also coincident with intensified westerly anomaly influx from the Congo basin into the region. However, better understanding of the detailed changes in hydrological cycle will require comprehensive water budget analyses that require daily or sub-daily variables, and was not a specific focus of the present study.  相似文献   

UD-SV: Urban data services and visualization framework for sharing multidisciplinary research     

John Samuel  Vincent Jaillot  Clément Colin  Diego Vinasco Alvarez  Eric Boix  Sylvie Servigne  Gilles Gesquière 《Transactions in GIS》2023,27(3):841-858

With the widespread availability of a large volume of urban data, stakeholders from different domains require advanced tools to manage, visualize and understand cities and their evolution. During the last few years, researchers have proposed numerous research works and applications to illustrate the cities of the past and possible scenarios of the future under different conditions. However, many of these approaches are one-time solutions and not based on standards, making them obsolete and unusable for reproducible research. In this article, we present UD-SV: an Urban data-Services and Visualization open-source framework for multidisciplinary research to handle complex processing, analysis, and visualization of urban data. However, our goal is not to present a one-time monolithic software solution for urban data management and analysis, but we demonstrate the design and development of an open and interoperable software framework driven by use cases from diverse users to solve applied research challenges. The main contribution of UD-SV is that it uses open standards and open data with documented and reproducible processes with a particular emphasis on the reuse of existing open-source software components. We also show an enhanced use of standards to enable a shift toward components that are interchangeable or composable with other existing components in the GIS community.  相似文献   

Contribution of interstitial OH groups to the incorporation of water in forsterite     

Etienne Balan  Marc Blanchard  Michele Lazzeri  Jannick Ingrin 《Physics and Chemistry of Minerals》2014,41(2):105-114

Water incorporation in forsterite samples synthesized under low to medium silica-activity conditions mostly occurs via a substitutional mechanism in which a Si vacancy is compensated by four protons. Corresponding IR absorption spectra display a cluster of narrow and weakly anharmonic OH-stretching bands at wavenumbers above 3,500 cm^?1. However, this diagnostic spectrum is often superimposed to one broader absorption band, rarely two, displaying pronounced temperature-dependent properties and tentatively assigned to H atoms in interstitial position (Ingrin et al. in Phys Chem Miner 40:499–510, 2013). Here, we investigate the structural and vibrational properties of selected interstitial H-bearing defects in forsterite using a first-principles modeling approach. We show that the broad bands discussed by Ingrin et al. (Phys Chem Miner 40:499–510, 2013) are most likely related to interstitial OH groups in the vacant octahedral sites alternating with the M2 sites along the c axis of the forsterite structure. The corresponding OH defects lead to the formation of fivefold coordinated Si species. Their peculiar thermal properties stem from the vibrational phase relaxation due to the anharmonic coupling of the high-energy local OH-stretching mode with a low-energy vibrational mode. This “exchange mode” corresponds to the hindered longitudinal translation of the OH group. These results suggest that at high pressure, hydrogen incorporation in forsterite is dominated by coexisting interstitial OH groups and (4H)_Si defects.  相似文献   

Trial Embankment Analysis to Predict Smear Zone Characteristics Induced by Prefabricated Vertical Drain Installation     

Ali Parsa-Pajouh  Behzad Fatahi  Philippe Vincent  Hadi Khabbaz 《Geotechnical and Geological Engineering》2014,32(5):1187-1210

In this study, FLAC finite difference software has been adopted to simulate the performance of the ground improved using prefabricated vertical drains assisted preloading, considering smear zone characteristics. The numerical code has been applied to predict smear zone properties employing a back calculation procedure using the results of several case studies. The construction of a trial embankment is proposed as a reliable method to predict the smear zone characteristics. The proposed back calculation method is applied to estimate the minimum required degree of consolidation and consequently the minimum required preloading time, resulting in a reliable estimation of the smear zone permeability and extent. Three preloading case studies considering both conventional preloading and vacuum assisted preloading have been simulated to verify the numerical code and to conduct the parametric study using the back calculation procedure. According to the results, the properties of the smear zone can be back-calculated reliably, when at least 33 % degree of consolidation due to trial embankment construction is achieved.  相似文献   

Influence of model conceptualisation on one-dimensional recharge quantification: Uley South,South Australia     

Carlos M. Ordens  Vincent E. A. Post  Adrian D. Werner  John L. Hutson 《Hydrogeology Journal》2014,22(4):795-805

Model conceptualisation is a key source of uncertainty in one-dimensional recharge modelling. The effects of different conceptualisations on transient recharge predictions for the semi-arid Uley South Basin, South Australia, were investigated. One-dimensional unsaturated zone modelling was used to quantify the effect of variations of (1) lithological complexity of the unsaturated zone, and (2) representation of preferential flow pathways. The simulations considered ranges of water-table depths, vegetation characteristics, and top soil thicknesses representative for the study area. Complex lithological profiles were more sensitive to the selected vegetation characteristics and water-table depth. Scenarios considering runoff infiltration into, and preferential flow through sinkholes resulted in higher and faster recharge rates. A comparison of modelled and field-based recharge estimates indicated that: (1) the model simulated plausible recharge rates, (2) only the models with preferential flow correctly reproduced the timing of recharge, and (3) preferential flow is probably redistributed in the unsaturated zone rather than passing to the water table directly. Because different but equally plausible conceptual models produce widely varying recharge rates, field-based recharge estimates are essential to constrain the modelling results.  相似文献   

Fluid–rock interactions related to metamorphic reducing fluid flow in meta-sediments: example of the Pic-de-Port-Vieux thrust (Pyrenees,Spain)     

Vincent?TrincalEmail author  Martine?Buatier  Delphine?Charpentier  Brice?Lacroix  Pierre?Lanari  Pierre?Labaume  Abdeltif?Lahfid  Torsten?Vennemann 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2017,172(9):78

In orogens, shortening is mainly accommodated by thrusts, which constitute preferential zones for fluid–rock interactions. Fluid flow, mass transfer, and mineralogical reactions taking place along thrusts have been intensely investigated, especially in sedimentary basins for petroleum and uranium research. This study combines petrological investigations, mineralogical quantifications, and geochemical characterizations with a wide range of analytical tools with the aim of defining the fluid properties (nature, origin, temperature, and redox) and fluid–host rock interactions (mass transfers, recrystallization mechanisms, and newly formed synkinematic mineralization) in the Pic-de-Port-Vieux thrust fault zone (Pyrenees, Spain). We demonstrate that two geochemically contrasted rocks have been transformed by fluid flow under low-grade metamorphism conditions during thrusting. The hanging-wall Triassic red pelite was locally bleached, while the footwall Cretaceous dolomitic limestone was mylonitized. The results suggest that thrusting was accompanied by a dynamic calcite recrystallization in the dolomitic limestone as well as by leaching of iron via destabilization of iron oxides and phyllosilicate crystallization in the pelite. Geochemical and physical changes highlighted in this study have strong implications on the understanding of the thrust behavior (tectonic and hydraulic), and improve our knowledge of fluid–rock interactions in open fluid systems in the crust.  相似文献