Earthquake prediction: 20 years of global experiment   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Vladimir G. Kossobokov 《Natural Hazards》2013,69(2):1155-1177

Earthquake professionals have for many decades recognized the benefits to society from reliable earthquake predictions, but uncertainties regarding source initiation, rupture phenomena, and accuracy of both the timing and magnitude of the earthquake occurrence have oftentimes seemed either very difficult or impossible to overcome. The problem is that most of these methods cannot be adequately tested and evaluated either because of (a) lack of a precise definition of “prediction” and/or (b) shortage of data for meaningful statistical verification. This is not the case for the pattern recognition algorithm M8 designed in 1984 for prediction of great, Magnitude 8, earthquakes, hence its name. By 1986, the algorithm was rescaled for applications aimed at smaller magnitude earthquakes, down to M5+ range, and since then it has become a useful tool for systematic monitoring of seismic activity in a number of test seismic regions worldwide. After confirmed predictions of both the 1988 Spitak (Armenia) and the 1989 Loma Prieta (California) earthquakes, a “rigid test” to evaluate the efficiency of the intermediate-term middle-range earthquake prediction technique has been designed. Since 1991, each half-year, the algorithm M8 alone and in combination with its refinement MSc has been applied in a real-time prediction mode to seismicity of the entire Earth, and this test outlines, where possible, the areas in the two approximations where magnitude 8.0+ and 7.5+ earthquakes are most likely to occur before the next update. The results of this truly global 20-year-old experiment are indirect confirmations of the existing common features of both the predictability and the diverse behavior of the Earth’s naturally fractal lithosphere. The statistics achieved to date prove (with confidence above 99 %) rather high efficiency of the M8 and M8-MSc predictions limited to intermediate-term middle- and narrow-range accuracy. These statistics support the following general conclusions—(1) precursory seismic patterns do exist; (2) the size of an area where precursory seismic patterns show up is much larger than that of the source zone of the incipient target earthquake; (3) many precursory seismic patterns appear to be similar, even in regions of fundamentally different tectonic environments; and (4) some precursory seismic patterns are analogous to those in advance of extreme catastrophic events in other complex nonlinear systems (e.g., magnetic storms, solar flares, “starquakes”, etc.)—that are of high importance for further searches of the improved earthquake forecast/prediction algorithms and methods.  相似文献   

Determination of ecological significance based on geostatistical assessment: a case study from the Slovak Natura 2000 protected area     

Michal Klaučo  Bohuslava Gregorová  Uglješa Stankov  Vladimir Marković  Polina Lemenkova 《Central European Journal of Geosciences》2013,5(1):28-42

The Sitno Natura 2000 Site covers an area of 935,56 hectares. The Sitno region is significant due to the number of rare and endangered species of plants, and as a result is considered a location of great importance to the maintenance of floral gene pools. The study area suffers human impacts in the form of tourism. The main purpose of this study is to the measure landscape elements, determine the ecological significance of habitats within the Sitno area, and from this data, organize the study area into conservation zones. The results of this landscape quantification are numerical values that can be used to interpret the quality of ongoing ecological processes within individual landscape types. Interpretation of this quantified data can be used to determine the ecological significance of landscapes in other study areas. This research examines the habitats of Natura 2000 Sites by a set of landscape metrics for habitat area, size, density, and shape, such as Number of patches (NP), Patch density (PD), Mean patch size (MPS), Patch size standard deviation (PSSD) and Mean shape index (MSI). The classification of land cover patches is based on the Annex Code system.  相似文献   

Observational Evidence for a Double-Helix Structure in CMEs and Magnetic Clouds     

Vladimir Osherovich  Joseph Fainberg  Alla Webb 《Solar physics》2013,284(1):261-274

We compare recent observations of a solar eruptive prominence as seen in extreme-UV light on 30 March 2010 by the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) with the multi-tube model for interplanetary magnetic clouds (Osherovich, Fainberg, Stone, Geophys. Res. Lett. 26, 2597, 1999). Our model is based on an exact analytical solution of the plasma equilibrium with magnetic force balanced by a gradient of scalar gas pressure. Topologically, this solution describes two magnetic helices with opposite magnetic polarity embedded in a cylindrical magnetic flux tube that creates magnetic flux inequality between the two helices by enhancing one helix and suppressing the other. The magnetic field in this model is continuous everywhere and has a finite magnetic energy per unit length of the tube. These configurations have been introduced as MHD bounded states (Osherovich, Soln. Dannye 5, 70, 1975). Apparently, the SDO observations depict two non-equal magnetically interacting helices described by this analytical model. We consider magnetic and thermodynamic signatures of multiple magnetic flux ropes inside the same magnetic cloud, using in situ observations. The ratio of magnetic energy density to bulk speed solar wind energy density has been defined as a solar wind quasi-invariant (QI). We analyze the structure of the QI profile to probe the topology of the internal structure of magnetic clouds. From the superposition of 12 magnetically isolated clouds observed by Ulysses, we have found that the corresponding QI is consistent with our double helix model.  相似文献   

Kema terrane: A fragment of a back-arc basin of the early Cretaceous Moneron–Samarga island-arc system, East Sikhote–Alin range, Russian Far East     

Alexander I.  Malinovsky  Vladimir V.  Golozoubov  Vladimir P.  Simanenko  Ludmila F.  Simanenko 《Island Arc》2008,17(3):285-304

Abstract The Kema terrane is a suite of Barremian(?)–Aptian to Albian volcano-sedimentary rocks of Sikhote–Alin that are interpreted as deposits of the back-arc basin of the Moneron–Samarga island-arc system. Compositional features of the different-type deposits indicate a near-slope depositional environment influenced by volcanic processes. Studies of slump fold orientation testify to the accumulation of material from southeast to northwest by gravitational sliding. Compositional characteristics of terrigenous rocks suggest the major provenance for detrital material was an ensialic volcanic island arc. Petrochemical characteristics of basaltic rocks indicate that the formations studied were confined to the back part of the arc.  相似文献   

Electrical structure of the upper mantle beneath Central Europe: Results of the CEMES project     

Vladimir Yu. Semenov  Josef Pek  Antal Ádám  Waldemar Jóźwiak  Boris Ladanyvskyy  Igor M. Logvinov  Pavel Pushkarev  Jan Vozar 《Acta Geophysica》2008,56(4):957-981

In the years 2001–2003, we accomplished the experimental phase of the project CEMES by collecting long-period magnetotelluric data at positions of eleven permanent geomagnetic observatories situated within few hundreds kilometers along the south-west margin of the East European Craton. Five teams were engaged in estimating independently the magnetotelluric responses by using different data processing procedures. The conductance distributions at the depths of the upper mantle have been derived individually beneath each observatory. By averaging the individual cross-sections, we have designed the final model of the geoelectrical structure of the upper mantle beneath the CEMES region. The results indicate systematic trends in the deep electrical structure of the two European tectonic plates and give evidence that the electrical structure of the upper mantle differs between the East European Craton and the Phanerozoic plate of west Europe, with a separating transition zone that generally coincides with the Trans-European Suture Zone.  相似文献   

Rough-bed flows in geophysical,environmental, and engineering systems: Double-Averaging Approach and its applications     

Vladimir I. Nikora  Paweł M. Rowiński 《Acta Geophysica》2008,56(3):529-533

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Do river deltas in east India retreat? A case of the Krishna Delta     

Nilantha Gamage  Vladimir Smakhtin 《Geomorphology》2009,103(4):533-540

The construction of multiple dams and barrages in many Indian River basins over the last few decades significantly reduced river flow to the sea and affected the sediment regime. More reservoir construction is planned through the proposed National River Linking Project (NRLP), which will transfer massive amounts of water from the North to the South of India. The impacts of these developments on fertile and ecologically sensitive deltaic environments are poorly understood and quantified at present. In this paper an attempt is made to identify, locate and quantify coastal erosion and deposition processes in one of the major river basins in India—the Krishna—using a time series of Landsat images for 1977, 1990 and 2001 with a spatial resolution ranging from 57.0 m to 28.5 m. The dynamics of these processes are analyzed together with the time series of river flow, sediment discharge and sediment storage in the basin. Comparisons are made with similar processes identified and quantified earlier in the delta of a neighboring similarly large river basin—the Godavari. The results suggest that coastal erosion in the Krishna Delta progressed over the last 25 years at the average rate of 77.6 ha yr^− 1, dominating the entire delta coastline and exceeding the deposition rate threefold. The retreat of the Krishna Delta may be explained primarily by the reduced river inflow to the delta (which is three times less at present than 50 years ago) and the associated reduction of sediment load. Both are invariably related to upstream reservoir storage development.  相似文献   

Altitude variation of the plasmapause signature in the main ionospheric trough     

Joseph M. Grebowsky  Robert F. Benson  Phillip A. Webb  Vladimir Truhlik  Dieter Bilitza 《Journal of Atmospheric and Solar》2009,71(16):1669-1676

The projection of the plasmapause magnetic-field lines to low altitudes, where the light-ion chemistry is dominated by O⁺, tends to occur near the minimum electron density in the main (midlatitude) electron density trough at night. With increasing altitude in the trough, where H⁺ emerges as the dominant ion on the low-latitude boundary, we have found cases where the plasmapause field lines are located on the sharp low-latitude side of the trough as expected if this topside ionosphere H⁺ distribution varies in step with the plasmapause gradient in the distant plasmasphere. These conclusions are based on near-equatorial crossings of the plasmapause (corresponding to the steep gradient in the dominant species H⁺) by the Explorer-45 satellite as determined from electric-field measurements by Maynard and Cauffman in the early 1970s and ISIS-2 ionospheric topside-sounder measurements. The former data have now been converted to digital form and made available at http://nssdcftp.gsfc.nasa.gov. The latter provide samples of nearly coincident observations of ionospheric main trough crossings near the same magnetic-field lines of the Explorer 45-determined equatorial plasmapause. The ISIS-2 vertical electron density profiles are used to infer where the F-region transitions from an O⁺ to a H⁺ dominated plasma through the main trough boundaries.  相似文献   

A sensitive search for SO₂ in the martian atmosphere: Implications for seepage and origin of methane     

Vladimir A. Krasnopolsky 《Icarus》2005,178(2):487-492

Mars was observed near the peak of the strongest SO₂ band at 1364-1373 cm⁻¹ with resolving power of 77,000 using the Texas Echelon Cross Echelle Spectrograph on the NASA Infrared Telescope Facility. The observation covered the Tharsis volcano region which may be preferable to search for SO₂. The spectrum shows absorption lines of three CO₂ isotopomers and three H₂O isotopomers. The water vapor abundance derived from the HDO lines assuming D/H = 5.5 times the terrestrial value is 12±1.0 pr. μm, in agreement with the simultaneous MGS/TES observations of 14 pr. μm at the latitudes (50° S to 10° N) of our observation. Summing of spectral intervals at the expected positions of sixteen SO₂ lines puts a 2σ upper limit on SO₂ of 1 ppb. SO₂ may be emitted into the martian atmosphere by seepage and is removed by three-body reactions with OH and O. The SO₂ lifetime, 2 years, is longer than the global mixing time 0.5 year, so SO₂ should be rather uniformly distributed across Mars. Seepage of SO₂ is less than 15,000 tons per year on Mars which is smaller than the volcanic production of SO₂ on the Earth by a factor of 700. Because CH₄/SO₂ is typically 10⁻⁴-10⁻³ in volcanic gases on the Earth, our results show seepage is unlikely to be the source of the recently discovered methane on Mars and therefore strengthen its biogenic origin.  相似文献   

Dust particles in the atmospheres of terrestrial planets and their roles for prebiotic chemistry: An overview     

Vladimir A. Basiuk  Rafael Navarro-Gonzalez 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1996,236(1):61-75

The available literature on sources, chemical composition, and importance of dust particles for the origins of life is analyzed. The most abundant sources of dust on the early terrestrial planets are sedimentation of interplanetary dust, meteoritic/cometary impacts, and volcanic eruptions. Interplanetary dust can originate directly from interstellar space, from evaporation of cometary bodies, from collisional destruction of asteroidal and meteoritic bodies, and nucleation in sunspots. Many rather complex organic species, including those of prebiotic interest, have been identified in the interstellar medium and cometary dust. Some of them are believed to formvia catalytic processes on the surfaces of dust particles. However, the mechanisms are not known, and even simulating experiments are difficult to perform due to insufficient knowledge of physical conditions in the space media and of chemical composition and properties of the dust. Besides the catalytic roles, cometary dust is believed to be the best delivery vehicle for organic matter of space origin to the atmospheres of terrestrial planets. Abundant sources of catalytically active fine dust can be volcanoes. Various organic and biological compounds have been found in terrestrial volcanic gases and ash, which are assumed to formvia the catalytic Fischer-Tropsch reactions. At present the eruptions on the Earth provide a unique opportunity to observein situ the formation of organic matter, and knowledge of the ash composition and local conditions allows to perform simulating experiments.  相似文献