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The two-island Republic of Trinidad and Tobago in the eastern Caribbean has enjoyed increased physical and industrial development in recent years; however, these islands have been subjected to damaging earthquakes during their history and an up-to-date risk assessment is needed. We examine two approaches to quantifying this problem: (a) the risk estimated probabilistically using recent instrumental data and (b) the hazard inferred from regional tectonic movements. The probabilistic approach indicates that peak ground accelerations with a probability of exceedance of 10 per cent in 50 years could range from 0–23g in Tobago to 0–36g in North-West Trinidad. Tectonic considerations suggest that a maximum-moment earthquake occurring directly under either land mass could generate accelerations as high as 0–6g; the probability of occurrence of such an event is estimated to be about 2 per cent in 50 years for Trinidad and about a tenth this risk for Tobago. This level of hazard would be significant for critical facilities such as LNG plants. 相似文献
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A. Neri W.P. Aspinall R. Cioni A. Bertagnini P.J. Baxter G. Zuccaro D. Andronico S. Barsotti P.D. Cole T. Esposti Ongaro T.K. Hincks G. Macedonio P. Papale M. Rosi R. Santacroce G. Woo 《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》2008
Probabilistic characterizations of possible future eruptive scenarios at Vesuvius volcano are elaborated and organized within a risk-based framework. In the EXPLORIS project, a wide variety of topics relating to this basic problem have been pursued: updates of historical data, reinterpretation of previous geological field data and the collection of new fieldwork results, the development of novel numerical modelling codes and of risk assessment techniques have all been completed. To achieve coherence, many diverse strands of evidence had to be unified within a formalised structure, and linked together by expert knowledge. For this purpose, a Vesuvius ‘Event Tree’ (ET) was created to summarise in a numerical-graphical form, at different levels of detail, all the relative likelihoods relating to the genesis and style of eruption, development and nature of volcanic hazards, and the probabilities of occurrence of different volcanic risks in the next eruption crisis. The Event Tree formulation provides a logical pathway connecting generic probabilistic hazard assessment to quantitative risk evaluation. In order to achieve a complete parameterization for this all-inclusive approach, exhaustive hazard and risk models were needed, quantified with comprehensive uncertainty distributions for all factors involved, rather than simple ‘best-estimate’ or nominal values. Thus, a structured expert elicitation procedure was implemented to complement more traditional data analysis and interpretative approaches. The structure of the Vesuvius Event Tree is presented, and some of the data analysis findings and elicitation outcomes that have provided initial indicative probability distributions to be associated with each of its branches are summarized. The Event Tree extends from initiating volcanic eruption events and hazards right through to human impact and infrastructure consequences, with the complete tree and its parameterisation forming a quantitative synoptic framework for comprehensive hazard evaluation and mapping of risk impacts. The organization of the Event Tree allows easy updating, as and when new information becomes available. 相似文献
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G. Queiroz J.M. Pacheco J.L. Gaspar W.P. Aspinall J.E. Guest T. Ferreira 《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》2008
Sete Cidades is a central volcano with a summit caldera at the western end of São Miguel Island, Azores. Its stratigraphy comprises two main geological groups: the Inferior Group, the units of which date from more than 200 000 years ago through to 36 000 years before present, consisting of thick lava flows and subaerial volcaniclastic deposits that built the base of the central volcano; and the Superior Group which comprises all the activity from the last 36 000 years, including pumice and scoria fallout and PDC deposits with minor lava flows. The volcanostratigraphy is divided into six main formations — Risco, Ajuda, Bretanha, Lombas, Santa Bárbara and Lagoas, each defined by different activity phases in the volcano's evolution. 相似文献
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J. Martí W.P. Aspinall R. Sobradelo A. Felpeto A. Geyer R. Ortiz P. Baxter P. Cole J. Pacheco M.J. Blanco C. Lopez 《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》2008
We propose a long-term volcanic hazards event tree for Teide-Pico Viejo stratovolcanoes, two complex alkaline composite volcanoes that have erupted 1.8–3 km3 of mafic and felsic magmas from different vent sites during the last 35 ka. This is the maximum period that can be investigated from surface geology and also represents an upper time limit for the appearance of the first phonolites on that volcano. The whole process of the event tree construction was divided into three stages. The first stage included the determination of the spatial probability of vent opening for basaltic and phonolitic eruptions, based on the available geological and geophysical data. The second, involved the analysis of the different eruption types that have characterised the volcanic activity from Teide during this period. The third stage focussed on the generation of the event tree from the information obtained in the two previous steps and from the application of a probabilistic analysis on the occurrence of each possible eruption type. As for other volcanoes, the structure of the Teide-Pico Viejo Event Tree was subdivided into several steps of eruptive progression from general to more specific events. The precursory phase was assumed as an unrest episode of any geologic origin (magmatic, hydrothermal or tectonic), which could be responsible for a clear increase of volcanic activity revealed by geophysical and geochemical monitoring. According to the present characteristics of Teide-Pico Viejo and their past history, we started by considering whether the unrest episode would lead to a sector collapse or not. If the sector collapse does not occur but an eruption is expected, this could be either from the central vents or from any of the volcanoes' flanks. In any of these cases, there are several possibilities according to what has been observed in the period considered in our study. In the case that a sector collapse occurs and is followed by an eruption we considered it as a flank eruption. We conducted an experts elicitation judgement to assign probabilities to the different possibilities indicated in the event tree. We assumed long term estimations based on existing geological and historical data for the last 35 Ka, which gave us a minimum estimate as the geological record for such a long period is incomplete. However, to estimate probabilities for a short term forecast, for example during an unrest episode, we would need to include in the event tree additional information from the monitoring networks, as any possible precursors that may be identified could tell us in which direction the system will evolve. Therefore, we propose to develop future versions of the event tree to include also the precursors that might be expected on each path during the initial stages of a new eruptive event. 相似文献
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Richard Aspinall 《Journal of Geographical Systems》2002,4(1):127-140
This paper presents a brief review of hyperspectral imagery and its analysis from a perspective based in Geographic Information Science. The ten original research priorities of the University Consortium for Geographic Information Science from 1996 and the five emerging themes from 2000/2001 are used as a framework to examine different aspects of management, analysis and use of hyperspectral imagery. A GIScience perspective identifies a series of issues that can develop the utility of hyperspectral imagery and gives an agenda for research that integrates hyperspectral imagery into Geographic Information Science to the benefit of both GIScience and hyperspectral remote sensing. 相似文献
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A review of the history of earthquake observations in Jamaica is presented; there have been several high-intensity earthquakes in the last 300 years. The observed seismicity of the Jamaica region is discussed in the context of what is known of regional tectonics, and possible source regions of earthquakes are identified but a comparison between instrumentally determined seismicity and macroseismicity shows that the instrumental data are of insufficient quantity or quality to permit direct assessment of earthquake risk by conventional techniques. An alternative approach has been adopted; consideration of the macroseismic record suggests that the peak acceleration in rock with 90 per cent probability of not being exceeded in any 50-year period is of order 0.3 g but that there are very significant local variations caused by near-surface geology. Especially this applies to the capital, Kingston, and envelope response spectra are derived for shallow, intermediate and deep thickness of sediments under the city to demonstate the possibility that localized amplification may occur. A current apparent decline in the seismicity of the Jamaica region is noted but it is shown that the decline in the number of earthquakes of engineering interest is not yet statistically significant. 相似文献