Three-dimensional analysis of ozone and PM<Subscript>2.5</Subscript> distributions obtained by observations of tethered balloon and unmanned aerial vehicle in Shanghai,China     

Xiao-Bing?Li  Dongfang?Wang  Qing-Chang?Lu  Zhong-Ren?PengEmail author  Qingyan?Fu  Xiao-Ming?Hu  Juntao?Huo  Guangli?Xiu  Bai?Li  Chao?Li  Dong-Sheng?Wang  Hanyu?Wang 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2018,32(5):1189-1203

A lightweight unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and a tethered balloon platform were jointly used to investigate three-dimensional distributions of ozone and PM_2.5 concentrations within the lower troposphere (1000 m) at a localized coastal area in Shanghai, China. Eight tethered balloon soundings and three UAV flights were conducted on May 25, 2016. Generalized additive models (GAMs) were used to quantitatively describe the relationships between air pollutants and other obtained parameters. Field observations showed that large variations were captured both in the vertical and horizontal distributions of ozone and PM_2.5 concentrations. Significant stratified layers of ozone and PM_2.5 concentrations as well as wind directions were observed throughout the day. Estimated bulk Richardson numbers indicate that the vertical mixing of air masses within the lower troposphere were heavily suppressed throughout the day, leading to much higher concentrations of ozone and PM_2.5 in the planetary boundary layer (PBL). The NO and NO₂ concentrations in the experimental field were much lower than that in the urban area of Shanghai and demonstrated totally different vertical distribution patterns from that of ozone and PM_2.5. This indicates that aged air masses of different sources were transported to the experimental field at different heights. Results derived from the GAMs showed that the aggregate impact of the selected variables for the vertical variations can explain 94.3% of the variance in ozone and 94.5% in PM_2.5. Air temperature, relative humidity and atmospheric pressure had the strongest effects on the variations of ozone and PM_2.5. As for the horizontal variations, the GAMs can explain 56.3% of the variance in ozone and 57.6% in PM_2.5. The strongest effect on ozone was related to air temperature, while PM_2.5 was related to relative humidity. The output of GAMs also implied that fine aerosol particles were in the stage of growth in the experimental field, which is different from ozone (aged air parcels of ozone). Geographical parameters influenced the horizontal variations of ozone and PM_2.5 concentrations by changing underlying surface types. The differences of thermodynamic properties between land and sea resulted in quick changes of PBL height, air temperature and dew point over the coastal area, which was linked to the extent of vertical mixing at different locations. The results of GAMs can be used to analyze the sources and formation mechanisms of ozone and PM_2.5 pollutions at a localized area.  相似文献   

Delineation of flooding risk hotspots based on digital elevation model,calculated and historical flooding extents: the case of Ouagadougou     

Raffaele?De RisiEmail author  Fatemeh?Jalayer  Francesco?De Paola  Sarah?Lindley 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2018,32(6):1545-1559

Delineation of flood risk hotspots can be considered as one of the first steps in an integrated methodology for urban flood risk management and mitigation. This paper presents a step-by-step methodology in a GIS-based framework for identifying flooding risk hotspots for residential buildings. This is done by overlaying a map of potentially flood-prone areas [estimated through the topographic wetness index (TWI)], a map of residential areas [extracted from a city-wide assessment of urban morphology types (UMT)], and a geo-spatial census dataset. The novelty of this paper consists in the fact that the flood-prone areas (the TWI thresholds) are identified through a maximum likelihood method (MLE) based both on inundation profiles calculated for a specific return period (T_R), and on information about the extent of historical flooding in the area of interest. Furthermore, Bayesian parameter updating is employed in order to estimate the TWI threshold by employing the historical extent as prior information and the inundation map for calculating the likelihood function. For different statistics of the TWI threshold, the map of potentially flood-prone areas is overlaid with the map of residential urban morphology units in order to delineate the residential flooding risk urban hotspots. Overlaying the delineated urban hotspots with geo-spatial census datasets, the number of people affected by flooding is estimated. These kind of screening procedures are particularly useful for locations where there is a lack of detailed data or where it is difficult to perform accurate flood risk assessment. In fact, an application of the proposed procedure is demonstrated for the identification of urban flooding risk hotspots in the city of Ouagadougou, capital of Burkina Faso, a city for which the observed spatial extent of a major flood event in 2009 and a calculated inundation map for a return period of 300 years are both available.  相似文献   

On approximation for fractional stochastic partial differential equations on the sphere     

Vo?V.?Anh  Philip?Broadbridge  Andriy?Olenko  Yu?Guang?WangEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2018,32(9):2585-2603

This paper gives the exact solution in terms of the Karhunen–Loève expansion to a fractional stochastic partial differential equation on the unit sphere \({\mathbb {S}}^{2} \subset {\mathbb {R}}^{3}\) with fractional Brownian motion as driving noise and with random initial condition given by a fractional stochastic Cauchy problem. A numerical approximation to the solution is given by truncating the Karhunen–Loève expansion. We show the convergence rates of the truncation errors in degree and the mean square approximation errors in time. Numerical examples using an isotropic Gaussian random field as initial condition and simulations of evolution of cosmic microwave background are given to illustrate the theoretical results.  相似文献   

Data assimilation of soil water flow by considering multiple uncertainty sources and spatial–temporal features: a field-scale real case study     

Xiaomeng?Li  Liangsheng?ShiEmail author  Yuanyuan?Zha  Yakun?Wang  Shun?Hu 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2018,32(9):2477-2493

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An environmental indicator: particulate characteristics on pedestrian pathway along integrated urban thoroughfare in Metropolis     

Wei?Pan  Hong-Di?He  Yu?Xue  Wei-Zhen?LuEmail author 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2018,32(9):2527-2536

Particulate matter (PM) originated by road transport constitutes an urgent task for megacities and pedestrians are supposed to be the first batch of innocent victims that exposed to and inhaled the polluted air. Footbridges have become a promising resolution to land tension, the location and design of them should be more considered in order to provide a more desirable walking system to pedestrians. In this study, three groups of PM [i.e., 0.3–0.9 μm (sub-fine), 0.9–2.5 μm (fine) and 2.5–10 μm (coarse)] were measured at different traffic scenario related footbridges (i.e., upstream of the on-ramp, downstream of the on-ramp, and signalized intersection) along an urban artery in Hong Kong, and their traffic volume composition, multifractality and cross-correlation behavior were investigated thereafter. Multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis and multifractal detrended fluctuation cross-correlation analysis were used simultaneously to quantify the persistency of different PM groups and interaction between them. The results indicate that although the particle concentration at intersection above footbridges presents the lowest, it has the highest emission rate and the strongest multifractality and cross-correlation behavior, especially the finer ones. Hence, it is suggest that the nature ventilation style of footbridges should avoid to be built above the signalized intersection due to the long persistency of particles and active interaction between different particle groups.  相似文献   

Bayesian maximum entropy approach and its applications: a review     

Junyu?He  Alexander?KolovosEmail author 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2018,32(4):859-877

The present paper reviews the conceptual framework and development of the Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) approach. BME has been considered as a significant breakthrough and contribution to applied stochastics by introducing an improved, knowledge-based modeling framework for spatial and spatiotemporal information. In this work, one objective is the overview of distinct BME features. By offering a foundation free of restrictive assumptions that limit comparable techniques, an ability to integrate a variety of prior knowledge bases, and rigorous accounting for both exact and uncertain data, the BME approach was coined as introducing modern spatiotemporal geostatistics. A second objective is to illustrate BME applications and adoption within numerous different scientific disciplines. We summarize examples and real-world studies that encompass the perspective of science of the total environment, including atmosphere, lithosphere, hydrosphere, and ecosphere, while also noting applications that extend beyond these fields. The broad-ranging application track suggests BME as an established, valuable tool for predictive spatial and space–time analysis and mapping. This review concludes with the present status of BME, and tentative paths for future methodological research, enhancements, and extensions.  相似文献   

Reducing uncertainty in stochastic streamflow generation and reservoir sizing by combining observed,reconstructed and projected streamflow     

Jason?PatskoskiEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile  A.?Sankarasubramanian 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2018,32(4):1065-1083

Reservoir sizing is one of the most important aspects of water resources engineering as the storage in a reservoir must be sufficient to supply water during extended droughts. Typically, observed streamflow is used to stochastically generate multiple realizations of streamflow to estimate the required storage based on the Sequent Peak Algorithm (SQP). The main limitation in this approach is that the parameters of the stochastic model are purely derived from the observed record (limited to less than 80 years of data) which does not have information related to prehistoric droughts. Further, reservoir sizing is typically estimated to meet future increase in water demand, and there is no guarantee that future streamflow over the planning period will be representative of past streamflow records. In this context, reconstructed streamflow records, usually estimated based on tree ring chronologies, provide better estimates of prehistoric droughts, and future streamflow records over the planning period could be obtained from general circulation models (GCMs) which provide 30 year near-term climate change projections. In this study, we developed paleo streamflow records and future streamflow records for 30 years are obtained by forcing the projected precipitation and temperature from the GCMs over a lumped watershed model. We propose combining observed, reconstructed and projected streamflows to generate synthetic streamflow records using a Bayesian framework that provides the posterior distribution of reservoir storage estimates. The performance of the Bayesian framework is compared to a traditional stochastic streamflow generation approach. Findings based on the split-sample validation show that the Bayesian approach yielded generated streamflow traces more representative of future streamflow conditions than the traditional stochastic approach thereby, reducing uncertainty on storage estimates corresponding to higher reliabilities. Potential strategies for improving future streamflow projections and its utility in reservoir sizing and capacity expansion projects are also discussed.  相似文献   

A fully non-stationary linear coregionalization model for multivariate random fields     

Francky?FouedjioEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2018,32(6):1699-1721

This paper introduces an extension of the traditional stationary linear coregionalization model to handle the lack of stationarity. Under the proposed model, coregionalization matrices are spatially dependent, and basic univariate spatial dependence structures are non-stationary. A parameter estimation procedure of the proposed non-stationary linear coregionalization model is developed under the local stationarity framework. The proposed estimation procedure is based on the method of moments and involves a matrix-valued local stationary variogram kernel estimator, a weighted local least squares method in combination with a kernel smoothing technique. Local parameter estimates are knitted together for prediction and simulation purposes. The proposed non-stationary multivariate spatial modeling approach is illustrated using two real bivariate data examples. Prediction performance comparison is carried out with the classical stationary multivariate spatial modeling approach. According to several criteria, the prediction performance of the proposed non-stationary multivariate spatial modeling approach appears to be significantly better.  相似文献   

Stochastic synthesis approximating any process dependence and distribution   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Panayiotis?DimitriadisEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile  Demetris?Koutsoyiannis 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2018,32(6):1493-1515

An extension of the symmetric-moving-average (SMA) scheme is presented for stochastic synthesis of a stationary process for approximating any dependence structure and marginal distribution. The extended SMA model can exactly preserve an arbitrary second-order structure as well as the high order moments of a process, thus enabling a better approximation of any type of dependence (through the second-order statistics) and marginal distribution function (through statistical moments), respectively. Interestingly, by explicitly preserving the coefficient of kurtosis, it can also simulate certain aspects of intermittency, often characterizing the geophysical processes. Several applications with alternative hypothetical marginal distributions, as well as with real world processes, such as precipitation, wind speed and grid-turbulence, highlight the scheme’s wide range of applicability in stochastic generation and Monte-Carlo analysis. Particular emphasis is given on turbulence, in an attempt to simulate in a simple way several of its characteristics regarded as puzzles.  相似文献   

Predicting long-term urban growth in Beijing (China) with new factors and constraints of environmental change under integrated stochastic and fuzzy uncertainties     

Qi?Lu  Ni-Bin?ChangEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile  Justin?Joyce 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2018,32(7):2025-2044

Numerous studies related to the simulation and prediction of urban growth to address land-use and land-cover (LULC) changes have been conducted in recent years, but very few have considered the impact of climate change, flooding impact, government relocation, corridor cities, and long-term rainfall variations simultaneously. To bridge the gap, this study predicts possible future LULC changes for 2030 and 2050 in Beijing (China), since Beijing is one of the fastest-growing megacities in the world. The proposed integrated modeling analysis covers four key scenarios to reflect the influences of different factors and constraints on LULC changes, in which cellular automata, Markov chain, and multi-criteria evaluation are fully coupled. While fuzzy membership function was used to address the uncertainty associated with the decision analysis, Markov chain, which is regarded as a stochastic process, was applied to predict future urban growth pathways. In addition, a statistical downscaling model driven by possible climate change scenarios was employed to address long-term rainfall variations in Beijing, China. This study differs from previous ones for Beijing in terms of not only the effects of climate change and flooding impact but also the newly-developed economic free trade zone in Xiong’an and the central government’s plan to relocate to the Tongzhou district. Findings indicate that there is no marked difference in LULC over the four key scenarios. Compared to the baseline LULC in 2010, the predicted results indicate that urban expansion is expected to increase more than 6 and 11% in 2030 and 2050, respectively.  相似文献