‘A Case Study on a Polar Cold Air Outbreak over Fram Strait using a Mesoscale Weather Prediction Model’     

Ulrike?WackerEmail author  K.?V.?Jayaraman?Potty  Christof?Lüpkes  J?rg?Hartmann  Matthias?Raschendorfer 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2005,117(2):301-336

The mesoscale weather prediction model ’Lokal-Modell’ (LM) of the Deutscher Wetterdienst is applied to the situation of an Arctic cold air outbreak in the Fram Strait region in April 1998. Observations are available from a flight along 5⁰E carried out during the ARTIST campaign. Initial and time-dependent boundary data for the simulation are taken from a larger scale operational model system. Using the standard configuration of LM, the simulation reproduced the propagation of cold air and the characteristic structure of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) in fair agreement with the observations. However, a detailed comparison revealed three basic problems. Firstly, there is evidence that the available data on sea-ice conditions were insufficient approximations to the true state for several reasons. A modification of the sea-ice data towards observations revealed that parts of the discrepancies were due to the original sea-ice data. Secondly, a control run with the model in its standard configuration shows an insufficient warming of the ABL downstream of the ice edge due to underestimation of surface heat fluxes. A simple modification of the approach for the scalar roughness length resulted in the strongest benefit, while comparative studies showed only a slight sensitivity to different types of parametrisation of turbulent mixing or the inclusion of an additional moist convection parametrisation. Thirdly, in all the simulations the deepening of the convective ABL downstream of the ice edge is weaker than observed. This may be partly due to the thermal stratification above the ABL in the analysis data, which is more stable than observed; but it may also be a hint to the fact that processes near the inversion are insufficiently parametrised in mesoscale models with resolutions as used in LM. The simulated cloud layer in the convective ABL is similar to that observed with respect to condensate content, a sharply defined cloud top, a diffuse lower bound, and continuous light precipitation.  相似文献   

Boundary-Layer Adjustment Over Small-Scale Changes of Surface Heat Flux   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

L.?MahrtEmail author  Dean?Vickers 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2005,116(2):313-330

Four months of eddy correlation data collected over a grass field and a nearby sage brush community are analyzed to examine the adjustment of the boundary-layer structure as it flows from the heated brush to the snow-covered grass. The grass site includes a 34-m tower with seven levels of eddy correlation data. The midday heat flux over the snow-covered grass and bare ground surfaces is often downward particularly with melting conditions, while the corresponding heat flux over the brush is almost always upward. For most of these cases, a stable internal boundary layer over the snow is well defined in terms of vertical profiles of the buoyancy flux over the snow-covered grass. The stable internal boundary layer is generally embedded within a deeper layer of flux divergence corresponding to increasing upward heat flux with height above the internal boundary layer. With thin snow cover, the surface heat flux over the grass is weak upward due to heating of grass protruding above the snow so that the flow adjusts to a decrease of the upward surface heat flux in the downwind direction. This common case of an adjusting boundary layer contrasts with the formation of an internal boundary layer due to a change of sign of the surface heat in flux the downwind direction. The adjustment of the boundary layer to the decrease of the surface heat flux leads to vertical divergence of the upward heat flux in contrast to the usual heated boundary layer over homogeneous surfaces. The consequences of the cooling due to the vertical divergence of the heat flux are discussed in terms of the heat budget of the adjusting and internal boundary layers.  相似文献   

Measurements of Flows Over Isolated Valleys     

Brian?Garvey  Ian?P.?CastroEmail author  Giles?Wiggs  Joanna?Bullard 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2005,117(3):417-446

Wind-tunnel measurements of the flow over an isolated valley both normal and at an angle (45°) to a simulated neutrally stable atmospheric boundary layer are presented. Attention is concentrated on the nature of the flow within the valley itself. The work formed part of a wider study that included detailed field measurements around an African desert valley and some limited comparisons with that work are included. A scale of about 1:1000 was used for the laboratory work, in which an appropriate combination of hot wire and particle image velocimetry was employed. For a valley normal to the upwind flow, it is shown that the upstream influence of the valley extends to a distance of at least one half of the axial valley width upstream of the leading edge, whereas differences in mean flow and turbulence could be identified well beyond two valley widths from the downwind edge. Non-normal wind angles lead to significant along-valley flows within the valley and, even at two valley heights above the valley ridge level, there remains a significant spanwise flow component. Downwind turbulence levels are somewhat lower in this case, but are still considerably higher than in the undisturbed boundary layer. At both flow angles, there are significant recirculation regions within the valleys, starting from mean separation just beyond the leading edge, but the strong spanwise flow in the 45° case reduces the axial extent of the separated zone. The flow is shown to be in some ways analogous to flow over an isolated hill. Our results usefully enhance the field data and could be used to improve modelling of saltation processes in the field.  相似文献   

Book Review: Burroughs,William (ed.): Climate into the 21st Century,Cambridge University Press,Cambridge, 2003, ISBN-0-521-79202-9, 240 pp., 35 $     

Axel?MichaelowaEmail author 《Climatic change》2005,68(3):379-380

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Future Sulfur Dioxide Emissions     

Steven?J.?SmithEmail author  Hugh?Pitcher  T.?M.?L.?Wigley 《Climatic change》2005,73(3):267-318

The importance of sulfur dioxide emissions for climate change is now established, although substantial uncertainties remain. This paper presents projections for future sulfur dioxide emissions using the MiniCAM integrated assessment model. A new income-based parameterization for future sulfur dioxide emissions controls is developed based on purchasing power parity (PPP) income estimates and historical trends related to the implementation of sulfur emissions limitations. This parameterization is then used to produce sulfur dioxide emissions trajectories for the set of scenarios developed for the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). We use the SRES methodology to produce harmonized SRES scenarios using the latest version of the MiniCAM model. The implications, and requirements, for integrated assessment modeling of sulfur dioxide emissions are discussed. We find that sulfur emissions eventually decline over the next century under a wide set of assumptions. These emission reductions result from a combination of emission controls, the adoption of advanced electric technologies, and a shift away from the direct end use of coal with increasing income levels. Only under a scenario where incomes in developing regions increase slowly do global emission levels remain at close to present levels over the next century. Under a climate policy that limits emissions of carbon dioxide, sulfur dioxide emissions fall in a relatively narrow range. In most cases, the relative climatic effect of sulfur dioxide emissions decreases dramatically to a point where sulfur dioxide is only a minor component of climate forcing by the end of the century. Ecological effects of sulfur dioxide, however, could be significant in some developing regions for many decades to come.  相似文献   

The End-to-End Attribution Problem: From Emissions to Impacts     

Dáithí?A.?StoneEmail author  Myles?R.?Allen 《Climatic change》2005,71(3):303-318

When a damaging extreme meteorological event occurs, the question often arises as to whether that event was caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The question is more than academic, since people affected by the event will be interested in recurring damages if they find that someone is at fault. However, since this extreme event could have occurred by chance in an unperturbed climate, we are currently unable to properly respond to this question. A solution lies in recognising the similarity with the cause-effect issue in the epidemiological field. The approach there is to consider the changes in the risk of the event occurring as attributable, as against the occurrence of the event itself. Inherent in this approach is a recognition that knowledge of the change in risk as well as the amplitude of the forcing itself are uncertain. Consequently, the fraction of the risk attributable to the external forcing is a probabilistic quantity. Here we develop and demonstrate this methodology in the context of the climate change problem.  相似文献   

Historical Climatology In Europe – The State Of The Art     

Rudolf?BráZdilEmail author  Christian?Pfister  Heinz?Wanner  Hans?Von?Storch  JüRg?Luterbacher 《Climatic change》2005,70(3):363-430

This paper discusses the state of European research in historical climatology. This field of science and an overview of its development are described in detail. Special attention is given to the documentary evidence used for data sources, including its drawbacks and advantages. Further, methods and significant results of historical-climatological research, mainly achieved since 1990, are presented. The main focus concentrates on data, methods, definitions of the “Medieval Warm Period” and the “Little Ice Age”, synoptic interpretation of past climates, climatic anomalies and natural disasters, and the vulnerability of economies and societies to climate as well as images and social representations of past weather and climate. The potential of historical climatology for climate modelling research is discussed briefly. Research perspectives in historical climatology are formulated with reference to data, methods, interdisciplinarity and impacts.  相似文献   

Climate Suitability for Stable Malaria Transmission in Zimbabwe Under Different Climate Change Scenarios     

Kristie?L.?EbiEmail author  Jessica?Hartman  Nathan?Chan  John?Mcconnell  Michael?Schlesinger  John?Weyant 《Climatic change》2005,73(3):375-393

Climate is one factor that determines the potential range of malaria. As such, climate change may work with or against efforts to bring malaria under control. We developed a model of future climate suitability for stable Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in Zimbabwe. Current climate suitability for stable malaria transmission was based on the MARA/ARMA model of climatic constraints on the survival and development of the Anopheles vector and the Plasmodium falciparum malaria parasite. We explored potential future geographic distributions of malaria using 16 projections of climate in 2100. The results suggest that, assuming no future human-imposed constraints on malaria transmission, changes in temperature and precipitation could alter the geographic distribution of malaria in Zimbabwe, with previously unsuitable areas of dense human population becoming suitable for transmission. Among all scenarios, the highlands become more suitable for transmission, while the lowveld and areas with low precipitation show varying degrees of change, depending on climate sensitivity and greenhouse gas emission stabilization scenarios, and depending on the general circulation model used. The methods employed can be used within or across other African countries.  相似文献   

Carbon Sequestration in Arable Soils is Likely to Increase Nitrous Oxide Emissions,Offsetting Reductions in Climate Radiative Forcing   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

Changsheng?Li  Steve?FrolkingEmail author  Klaus?Butterbach-Bahl 《Climatic change》2005,72(3):321-338

Strategies for mitigating the increasing concentration of carbon dioxide (CO₂) in the atmosphere include sequestering carbon (C) in soils and vegetation of terrestrial ecosystems. Carbon and nitrogen (N) move through terrestrial ecosystems in coupled biogeochemical cycles, and increasing C stocks in soils and vegetation will have an impact on the N cycle. We conducted simulations with a biogeochemical model to evaluate the impact of different cropland management strategies on the coupled cycles of C and N, with special emphasis on C-sequestration and emission of the greenhouse gases methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O). Reduced tillage, enhanced crop residue incorporation, and farmyard manure application each increased soil C-sequestration, increased N₂O emissions, and had little effect on CH₄ uptake. Over 20 years, increases in N₂O emissions, which were converted into CO₂-equivalent emissions with 100-year global warming potential multipliers, offset 75–310% of the carbon sequestered, depending on the scenario. Quantification of these types of biogeochemical interactions must be incorporated into assessment frameworks and trading mechanisms to accurately evaluate the value of agricultural systems in strategies for climate protection.  相似文献   

Article 2 of the UNFCCC: Historical Origins,Recent Interpretations   总被引：4，自引：2，他引：2  

Michael?OppenheimerEmail author  Annie?Petsonk 《Climatic change》2005,73(3):195-226

Article 2 of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which states the treaty's long-term objective, is the subject of a growing literature that examines means to interpret and implement this provision. Here we provide context for these studies by exploring the intertwined scientific, legal, economic, and political history of Article 2. We review proposed definitions for “dangerous anthropogenic interference” and frameworks that have been proposed for implementing these definitions. Specific examples of dangerous climate changes suggest limits on global warming ranging from 1 to 4 ^∘C and on concentrations ranging from 450 to 700 ppm CO₂ equivalents. The implications of Article 2 for near term restrictions on greenhouse-gas emissions, e.g., the Kyoto Protocol, are also discussed.  相似文献