作物模型参数敏感性分析现状与展望     

王连喜  张阳  李琪  胡正华  任景全  卢媛媛  王田 《气象科技》2018,46(2):382-389

作物模型作为作物产量预测等方面应用广泛、作用巨大的重要工具,其参数的校正和优化等工作是模型模拟的前提。普通的试错法缺乏客观性且效率低下,对作物模型的输入参数进行敏感性分析,识别模拟过程中参数的敏感程度,能够有效识别关键参数并减少率定的参数量,为后续模型参数优化和校正工作奠定基础。本文主要分析了作物模型的局部敏感性分析方法和全局敏感性方法的利弊及其适应条件,涵盖傅立叶幅度灵敏度检验法(FAST)、Morris法、LH-OAT法、普适似然不确定性估计法(GLUE)、Sobol法以及扩展傅立叶幅度灵敏度检验法(EFAST)等,回顾各方法在作物模型中的研究现状,并对作物模型参数敏感性分析方法提出了展望。  相似文献   

基于MICAPS 4的精细化天气预报平台设计及应用     

贺雅楠  高嵩  薛峰  李白良  胡皓 《气象科技》2018,46(1):200-206

基于气象信息综合分析处理系统第4版(Meteorology Information Comprehensive Analysis Process System4,MICAPS 4)的精细化天气预报平台的设计与应用。从我国精细化气象格点预报业务需求出发,介绍了精细化预报系统的总体组织结构和数据流程,基于MVVM模式的总体架构设计、功能设计以及实现。平台采用高性能的分布式内存对象缓存技术,提高了系统运行效率;采用模型视图分离,将数据逻辑与用户界面剥离,增强其可扩展性,更便于省级本地化应用;开发了要素场协调性处理功能,集成了降水、温度等客观预报算法,并提供丰富的主/客观交互工具。目前,该平台已在业务中应用,为全国精细化预报业务提供了重要支撑。  相似文献   

Investigation into the Formation,Structure, and Evolution of an EF4 Tornado in East China Using a High-Resolution Numerical Simulation     

Dan Yao  Haile Xue  Jinfang Yin  Jisong Sun  Xudong Liang  Jianping Guo 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2018,32(2):157-171

Devastating tornadoes in China have received growing attention in recent years, but little is known about their formation, structure, and evolution on the tornadic scale. Most of these tornadoes develop within the East Asian monsoon regime, in an environment quite different from tornadoes in the U.S. In this study, we used an idealized, highresolution (25-m grid spacing) numerical simulation to investigate the deadly EF4 (Enhanced Fujita scale category 4) tornado that occurred on 23 June 2016 and claimed 99 lives in Yancheng, Jiangsu Province. A tornadic supercell developed in the simulation that had striking similarities to radar observations. The violent tornado in Funing County was reproduced, exceeding EF4 (74 m s^–1), consistent with the on-site damage survey. It was accompanied by a funnel cloud that extended to the surface, and exhibited a double-helix vorticity structure. The signal of tornado genesis was found first at the cloud base in the pressure perturbation field, and then developed both upward and downward in terms of maximum vertical velocity overlapping with the intense vertical vorticity centers. The tornado’s demise was found to accompany strong downdrafts overlapping with the intense vorticity centers. One of the interesting findings of this work is that a violent surface vortex was able to be generated and maintained, even though the simulation employed a free-slip lower boundary condition. The success of this simulation, despite using an idealized numerical approach, provides a means to investigate more historical tornadoes in China.  相似文献   

基于RFID和自适应卡尔曼滤波的室内移动目标定位方法     

尹姝  陈元橼  仇翔 《南京气象学院学报》2018,10(6):749-753

本文研究了UHF-RFID（超高频-射频识别）环境下的移动目标定位问题,提出了一种结合自适应卡尔曼滤波和BVIRE（边界虚拟参考标签）的移动机器人定位方法,即B-AKF（Boundary-Adaptive Kalman Filter）定位方法.首先,利用UHF-RFID系统对移动机器人进行初始定位,其次,考虑模型和噪声统计特性不确定性,采用自适应卡尔曼滤波方法对机器人的运动状态进行预测和更新,并引入自适应因子补偿噪声方差不确定性问题.最后,搭建了基于UHF-RFID的定位实验平台,并通过实验研究表明,相比于传统的线性BVIRE和线性卡尔曼滤波方法,所提出的自适应卡尔曼滤波方法具有更高的定位精度和更强的鲁棒性能.  相似文献   

Automatic change detection in lane-level road networks using GPS trajectories   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Xue Yang  Kathleen Stewart  Zhen Dong  Xia Zhang  Qingquan Li 《International journal of geographical information science》2018,32(3):601-621

Lane-level road network updating is crucial for urban traffic applications that use geographic information systems contributing to, for example, intelligent driving, route planning and traffic control. Researchers have developed various algorithms to update road networks using sensor data, such as high-definition images or GPS data; however, approaches that involve change detection for road networks at lane level using GPS data are less common. This paper presents a novel method for automatic change detection of lane-level road networks based on GPS trajectories of vehicles. The proposed method includes two steps: map matching at lane level and lane-level change recognition. To integrate the most up-to-date GPS data with a lane-level road network, this research uses a fuzzy logic road network matching method. The proposed map-matching method starts with a confirmation of candidate lane-level road segments that use error ellipses derived from the GPS data, and then computes the membership degree between GPS data and candidate lane-level segments. The GPS trajectory data is classified into successful or unsuccessful matches using a set of defuzzification rules. Any topological and geometrical changes to road networks are detected by analysing the two kinds of matching results and comparing their relationships with the original road network. Change detection results for road networks in Wuhan, China using collected GPS trajectories show that these methods can be successfully applied to detect lane-level road changes including added lanes, closed lanes and lane-changing and turning rules, while achieving a robust detection precision of above 80%.  相似文献   

Characterization of landscape pattern based on land economic niche change: A case study in Ganzhou,Gansu Province,China     

Hua Li Tong  Pei Ji Shi  Xue Bin Zhang  Zai Yan Li 《寒旱区科学》2018,10(3):261-270

Land use change has a profound impact on biodiversity and ecological processes, and is closely related to changes in landscape patterns. This paper introduces the theory and method of land economic niche into landscape ecology, which provides a new method for spatial characterization of urban and rural spatial landscape patterns. Based on this theory, this paper analyzes the landscape pattern of Ganzhou District by using Landsat images as data source in 1995, 2000, 2005,2010 and 2015. We calculated the land economic niche by applying the niche potential theory. Combined with the theory of landscape ecology, we explored the effects of the land economic niche change on the landscape pattern at a county scale.The results show that economic niche of construction land, watershed and farmland increased during 1995–2015, and grassland declined significantly. The economic niche of farmland, construction land, watershed and grassland show a negative correlation with the number of patches(NP), fragmentation index(FN) and the fractal dimension index(FD), and had a positive correlation with the aggregation index(AI). There was no significant correlation between the forest land economic niche and landscape metrics. The change of land economic niche has a driving effect on the landscape pattern of the county, which can represent the economic development direction of Ganzhou District. The land economic niche is closely related to the landscape type which can directly obtain an economic benefit.  相似文献   

基于DEM的黄土地貌逼近度因子构建及特征分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

雷雪  周毅  李阳  王泽涛 《地球信息科学学报》2020,22(3):431-441

沟谷源点作为沟沿线上最为活跃的部位,其分别到上游分水线、下游沟谷线的流线空间比对关系,是表征三线空间结构的重要突破口。它在空间上向流域分水线逼近的程度,是量化黄土流域地貌系统发育程度的重要切入点。为探究黄土地貌区流域沟谷源点向流域分水线逼近的程度,揭示黄土流域地貌发育进程及该进程所表现的主要侵蚀方式,本文从水平和垂直2个维度,构建量化三线空间结构关系的核心因子--逼近度(PI),其中包括水平逼近度(HPI)和垂直逼近度(VPI),基于5 m分辨率数字高程模型,在陕北黄土高原遴选了包含16种地貌类型的42个样区,利用数字地形分析方法,探讨其平均值(MHPI, MVPI)的空间分异规律。另外,选择其中南北序列分别代表黄土塬、残塬、梁状丘陵沟壑和峁状丘陵沟壑区的淳化、宜君、甘泉和绥德4个地区,完备包含一至五级别沟谷的典型流域为重点实验样区,探讨陕北黄土高原流域尺度平均逼近度变异指数(MPIV)序列性特征。实验结果表明:①陕北黄土高原平均逼近度(MPI)存在强烈的空间自相关,MHPI在南北序列上先增大后减小,东西方向上逐渐减小,在黄河沿岸峡谷丘陵区MHPI达到最大;MVPI由西南-东北先减小后增加,由西北-东南逐渐减小,在渭北黄土台塬区达到最小;②在流域尺度上,MPIV值的正负与黄土塬区、丘陵沟壑区敏感相关;③4个重点样区MHPI、MVPI与其它地形因子存在南北序列上的一致性。104个外部汇流区平均水平逼近度与平均坡度相关性较好(P=0.43, a<0.001),平均垂直逼近度与面积高程积分强烈相关(P=0.75, a<0.001)。平均逼近度指标综合考量了黄土高原地区最典型的三条具有结构控制意义特征线的空间关系,对黄土地貌的发育程度有明显的指示性意义。  相似文献   

CO2流体对岩屑长石砂岩改造作用的实验   总被引：6，自引：3，他引：3  

曲希玉  刘立  马瑞  胡大千  陈雪  王彦明 《吉林大学学报(地球科学版)》2008,38(6)

通过密闭容器中CO2-H2O-砂岩体系相互作用实验,研究了不同温度和压力下CO2流体对岩屑长石砂岩成分的改造。反应后溶液中总矿化度的变化、样品质量的损失及扫描电镜(SEM)的观察结果表明:长石、方解石和石英的溶蚀强度随温度的升高而增大,CO2流体对岩屑长石砂岩的溶蚀作用与温度正相关;同时通过扫描电镜观察发现,200℃和300℃时样品表面均有一种未知的铝硅酸盐矿物生成,并通过反应液的pH值及各种离子浓度的变化解释了CO2流体-砂岩相互作用过程中矿物溶解、沉淀的机制。  相似文献   

The development and control of the land subsidence in the Yangtze Delta,China   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Jichun Wu  Xiaoqing Shi  Yuqun Xue  Yun Zhang  Zixin Wei  Jun Yu 《Environmental Geology》2008,55(8):1725-1735

Land subsidence in China occurs predominantly in 17 provinces (cities) situated in the eastern and middle regions of the country, including Shanghai, Tianjin and Jiangsu, and Hebei provinces. It is primarily caused by groundwater overpumping. One of the areas most severely affected by land subsidence is the Yangtze Delta, most of which consists of Shanghai City, the Su-Xi-Chang area (Suzhou, Wuxi and Changzhou cities) of Jiangsu Province, and the Hang-Jia-Hu area (Hangzhou, Jiaxing and Huzhou cities) of Zhejiang Province. The excessive exploitation of groundwater forms in a large regional cone of depression and, consequently, land subsidence is also regional, currently centered in the Shanghai and Su-Xi-Chang areas. In 2002, the maximum cumulative subsidence of Shanghai, Su-Xi-Chang and Hang-Jia-Hu were 2.63 m, 2.00 and 1.06 m, respectively. The land subsidence area is continuing to expand throughout the Yangtze Delta. To study the characteristics and the pattern of this land subsidence, the government has implemented a monitoring system involving the placement of 37 groups of extensometers (layers marks) and drilling of more than 1000 observation wells. These provide an invaluable historical record of deformation and pore water pressure and facilitate studies on the special features of soil deformation when the groundwater level changes due to pumping. Several measures have been taken in recent years to control the development of the land subsidence in the different areas; these include groundwater injection, prohibition of pumping deep confined groundwater, and an adjustment of the pumping depth and magnitude of the groundwater withdrawn. At present, although the subsidence area is still increasing slowly, the subsidence rate is controlled.  相似文献   

Application of allochthonous organic carbon and phosphorus forms in the interpretation of past environmental conditions   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Changwei Lü  Jiang He  Huimin Sun  Hongxi Xue  Ying Liang  Saruli Bai  Ying Sun  Lili Shen  Qingyun Fan 《Environmental Geology》2008,55(6):1279-1289

Organic matter in sediments, for instance, carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus, can be used to reconstruct the paleoecological and pollution history of lakes and their catchment basins. In this paper, the contents of allochthonous organic carbon (allochthonous OC) and autochthonous organic carbon (autochthonous OC) in sediment cores taken from Wuliangsuhai Lake and Daihai Lake in northern China are quantified by using a binary model, and phosphorus forms in the sediment cores from the two lakes are extracted by sequential extraction techniques. The results indicate that the palaeoenvironment and paleoclimate of Daihai Lake and its catchment basin in the recent 250 years can be well reconstructed based on the content of allochthonous OC. The climate was relatively humid and warm in the period of 1865–2005, while relatively dry and cold in the period of 1765–1865. The sedimentary information of allochthonous OC in the 22–42-cm portion of the sediment cores in Daihai Lake corresponds to the final cold fluctuation of the Little Ice Age that occurred since the Middle Holocene. The difference of phosphorus forms in the sediment cores between the two lakes indicates that phosphorus input to the lakes and the correlation between phosphorus forms and distribution and the changes of environment are influenced by the eutrophication mechanisms and environmental conditions of the two lakes.  相似文献