内蒙古巴彦淖尔市一次强降水过程诊断分析     

孙令东  王永清  梁凤娟 《气象与环境科学》2013,36(3):34-38

运用常规气象资料和自动站实测资料,从低涡系统的演变规律及物理机制等方面对2010年9月6-9日发生在内蒙古巴彦淖尔市一次强降水过程进行诊断分析.结果表明:此过程是在中高纬稳定的大尺度环流背景下,由地面气旋、低涡和副热带高压共同作用下产生的,东移的冷空气与西南暖湿气流在巴彦淖尔市上空交绥是造成此次强降水的主要原因.充足、稳定的水汽输送和较强的水汽辐合,为此次强降水提供了充足的水汽条件.高空强烈的辐散,通过抽吸作用引起低层强烈的辐合,从而促使垂直上升运动增强,是此次降水天气发生的动力.500 hPa层以上大气层结稳定,阻挡暖湿空气向上输送,促使不稳定能量在500 hPa层以下积累,为此次强降水发生提供了足够的能量条件.850 hPa偏东风暖湿气流受阴山的阻挡和抬升,降水量增加,而山后降水量减少.乌拉山与白云查汗山形成狭长山谷,边界层东风气流穿过,狭管效应有利于此地风速增大,将大量的水汽输送到巴彦淖尔市上空.  相似文献   

GPS精密钟差内插方法研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

李大章  顾和和  李研岩  齐星星 《全球定位系统》2012,37(3):75-78

GPS钟差的计算,可以通过精密星历内插所得。将IGS提供的15min精密星历内插到5min,其中分别用拉格朗日多项式、切比雪夫多项式法来进行内插,根据两种插值多项式分别比较分析在不同阶数情况下内插的精度。详细介绍了拉格朗日多项式、切比雪夫多项式插值法的基本原理,通过算例得出了拉格朗日与切比雪夫的拟合精度都可以满足精密定位需要,且切比雪夫插值的精度更高。  相似文献   

利用TRMM卫星资料对人工增雨云系模式云微观场预报能力的检验   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

马占山  刘奇俊  秦琰琰  康志明  延昊 《气象学报》2009,67(2):260-271

文中利用TRMM卫星测雨雷达探测反演的云水、雨水、云冰和降冰4种云参数产品及实况降水资料,对比检验该人工增雨云系业务模式对云微观场和地面降水场的预报能力.结果表明,人工增雨云系模式系统对降水的预报能力要略优于现行业务运行的GRAPES模式;人工增雨云系模式系统能较好地预报云系系统云物理微观量的垂直结构特征,模式预报的微观场与卫星监测吻合较好;在播撒窗区的水平分布上,模式预报的各水凝物分布形势和强中心位置与卫星监测一致,其大小也接近监测值;人工增雨云系模式能较好地预报云的微观场和天气形势场,可作为云系人工增雨条件决策的重要参考依据.  相似文献   

中国近54年来夏季极端降水事件特征研究   总被引：8，自引：2，他引：6  

龙妍妍  范广洲  段炼  冯琬  王钦  李飞  张永莉 《气候与环境研究》2016,21(4):429-438

利用1960~2013年中国6~8月无缺测的571站逐日降水资料,定义7个极端降水指数,研究中国夏季极端降水事件特征。结果表明:(1)极端降水事件空间分布存在明显的区域性差异,长江中下游地区、华南地区、西北地区表现为增加趋势,东北地区、华北地区、西南部分地区表现为减少趋势;时间分布表现出具有显著的年际和年代际变化特征,极端降水事件有增加趋势,在20世纪90年代初期有明显转折。(2)M-K检验表现出极端降水事件在20世纪90年代初发生突变,突变前(后)偏弱(强)。(3)极端降水指数周期振荡不完全一致,准15年周期振荡为主,其次是准7年周期,最强振动出现在1998年。(4)除持续干期指数外,其他极端降水指数间存在较好的相关性。  相似文献   

在役公路梁式桥综合震害等级预测研究          下载免费PDF全文

樊燕燕  李江龙  李子奇 《地震工程学报》2021,43(4):951-957

为客观预测在役公路梁式桥综合震害状况,考虑在役桥梁在运营期存在的病害问题,从压力和承压两方面建立在役公路梁式桥综合震害预测评价指标体系。以桥梁作为承灾体,建立在役公路梁式桥综合震害物元可拓模型,运用熵权法进行赋权,确定桥梁的综合震害状况。以一座在役梁式桥为例,运用上述模型确定算例的综合震害状况。研究结果表明,该桥的综合震害等级为Ⅲ级,破坏等级中等,且根据结果分析影响桥梁震害程度的主要影响因素;该模型通过对多个指标关联系数的综合分析来评价在役梁式桥的综合震害等级,极大地提高了该模型评估的准确率及可靠性,为桥梁震害等级的预测提供一定的参考,对提升桥梁综合抗震能力具有积极意义。  相似文献   

Characterization of sudden and sustained base flow jump hydrologic behaviour in the humid seasonal tropics of the Panama Canal Watershed     

Yanyan Cheng  Fred L. Ogden  Jianting Zhu 《水文研究》2020,34(3):569-582

Base flows are important for tropical regions with pronounced dry seasons, which are facing increasing water demands. Base flow generation, however, is one of the most challenging hydrological processes to characterize in the tropics. In many years during the May–December wet season in the Panama Canal Watershed (PCW), base flows in rivers abruptly increase. This increase persists until the start of the December–April dry season. Understanding this unusual base flow jump (BFJ) behaviour is critical to improve water provisioning in the seasonal tropics, especially during droughts and extended dry seasons. This study developed an integrated approach combining piecewise regression on cumulative average base flow and sensitivity analysis to calculate the timing and magnitude of BFJ. Rainfall, forest cover, mean land surface slope, catchment area, and estimated subsurface storage were tested as predictors for the occurrence and magnitude of the BFJs in seven subcatchments of the PCW. Sensitivity analysis on correlated predictors allowed ranking of predictor contributions due to isolated and cross-correlation effects. Correlations between observed BFJs and BFJs predicted by watershed and rainfall-related predictors were 0.92 and 0.65 for BFJ timing and magnitude, respectively. Forest cover was the second most significant predictor after cumulative rainfall for jump magnitude, owing to larger subsurface storage and groundwater recharge in forests than pastures. Catchments in the mountainous eastern PCW always generated larger jumps due to their higher rainfall and greater forest cover than the western PCW catchments. The cross-correlations between predictors contributed to more than 50% of the jump variances. The results demonstrate the importance of rainfall gradient and catchment characteristics in affecting the sudden and sustained BFJs, which can help inform land management decisions intended to enhance water supplies in the tropics. This study underscores the need for more research to further understand the hydrological processes involved in the BFJ phenomenon, including better BFJ models and field characterizations, to help improve tropical ecosystem services under a changing environment.  相似文献   

Source Evolution and Its Relationship to Climate Change Since the Middle–Late Pleistocene in Laizhou Bay,China     

GONG Chuanzhang  LI Guangxue  LIU Yong  DING Dong  XU Jishang  MA Yanyan  QIAO Lulu  and WANG Haoyin 《中国海洋大学学报(英文版)》2020,19(1):113-123

Through the geochemical analysis of two hundred-meters cores KD4 and ZK3 from Laizhou Bay,in this study,we determined the distribution law and controlling factors of the geochemical elements.We analyzed 24 elements with respect to their R factors and major principal components,which were combined with the source discrimination functions DFCr/Th and DFCa/Al to obtain the sediment source index and its variation with depth for this area.A comparison of the changes in climate indicators suggests a clear correlation between the source and climate changes.The results show that the Yellow River and surrounding short-term rivers are the main sediment sources in this area.The PC3 of the KD4 core and PC2 of the ZK3 core(e.g.,CaO,MnO,SiO2)exhibit significant variations and reflect the relative contributions of Yellow River sources.The deposition process can be divided into six stages:in Phase I(MIS 5c–MIS 5a),the Yellow River formed,and the composition of the Yellow River had a greater influence on the sedimentary composition of the study area.In Phase II(MIS 5a–MIS 3),the sediment sources of the Yellow River and the short-term streams in this area were wavering,with the sediments derived from short-term rivers playing a more important role.In Phase III(MIS 3),with a sharp drop in temperature,the study area was in the process of retreat,and the sediment source changed from the Yellow River to short-term rivers,after which the Yellow River source material remained the main sediment source for the region.A similar process occurred three more times in Phase IV(MIS 3–MIS 2),Phase V(MIS 2–MIS 1),and Phase VI(MIS 1).With changes in climate,especially during alternating sea-land phases,the sediment source varied in marine-terrestrial-marine phases,and the changes are observed as Yellow River source-surrounding provenance-Yellow River source.However,this process of change is not synchronized with the sea-land strata alternation.  相似文献   

2015年10月4日佛山龙卷过程的观测分析   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

李兆慧  王东海  麦雪湖  吴凯露  刘英  王红艳  朱建军  炎利军  李彩玲  陈慧娴  龙妍妍 《气象学报》2017,75(2):288-313

受1522号台风彩虹外围螺旋云带影响,2015年10月4日15时28分—16时（北京时）广东佛山出现了EF3级强龙卷并造成严重灾害。为了综合分析龙卷发生的多尺度环境背景场和龙卷的结构及强度变化等特点,进行了灾情调研,航拍龙卷灾情路径,走访龙卷目击者,确认龙卷路径及灾情级别,再结合多渠道获取的龙卷视频照片等资料以及观测资料进行分析研究,结果表明:（1）产生此次龙卷的超级单体存在于台风彩虹外围螺旋云带内;龙卷向西北偏北方向移动,触地时长为32 min,受灾路径长度为31.7 km,最大受灾直径为577 m,平均速度约为60 km/h,具有“移动速度快,影响范围广,破坏力强”的特点,其移动速度快慢似与超级单体强度和地面的粗糙度有关。（2）佛山地区中高层受偏南气流控制,水汽充足,地面有弱冷空气;珠三角喇叭口地形有利于气流的辐合与局地涡旋的产生;抬升凝结高度低,风垂直切变大,有利于龙卷的生成。（3）地面自动气象站气象要素表现出受龙卷环流影响的特征。3 s极大风速的大值带和3 s最低气压的低值带以及1 h累计降水大值中心呈现出与龙卷走向一致的东南—西北向带状分布;龙卷到来时其周围自动气象站气温和气压明显降低,风速明显增大,风向明显改变;降水在龙卷靠近前5—10分钟就开始明显增大,其大值中心位于龙卷路径的西侧。龙卷离开后气压比龙卷来临前有所升高,但气温较前降低。（4）龙卷出现在钩状回波前进方向的右后侧;降水大值区与雷达组合反射率大值区基本一致。地面风场的辐合中心与龙卷触地的位置基本一致,并且钩状回波的入流区与地面偏东风区相对应。龙卷风暴单体发展高度在4 km左右,具有低重心对流的特点。其前部存在回波悬垂,一条很窄的向西北倾斜的回波大值带可能与龙卷漏斗云墙有关。对应径向速度剖面图上为一条向西北倾斜的正、负速度交界区,构成一个逆时针旋转的涡旋带,切向剖面图上存在较强的辐合。（5）龙卷发展过程中伴随着龙卷风暴顶和风暴底的逐渐下降以及单体质心的下降,中气旋与龙卷涡旋特征的顶和底也随之逐渐下降。龙卷风涡旋特征的顶高和底高都略低于中气旋,并在龙卷触地时降至最低。龙卷涡旋的切变值远大于中气旋的切变值,且在龙卷强度最强时最大。   相似文献   

Assessment of PPP integer ambiguity resolution using GPS,GLONASS and BeiDou (IGSO,MEO) constellations     

Yanyan Liu  Yidong Lou  Shirong Ye  Rui Zhang  Weiwei Song  Xing Zhang  Qingquan Li 《GPS Solutions》2017,21(4):1647-1659

Although integer ambiguity resolution (IAR) can improve positioning accuracy considerably and shorten the convergence time of precise point positioning (PPP), it requires an initialization time of over 30 min. With the full operation of GLONASS globally and BDS in the Asia–Pacific region, it is necessary to assess the PPP–IAR performance by simultaneous fixing of GPS, GLONASS, and BDS ambiguities. This study proposed a GPS + GLONASS + BDS combined PPP–IAR strategy and processed PPP–IAR kinematically and statically using one week of data collected at 20 static stations. The undifferenced wide- and narrow-lane fractional cycle biases for GPS, GLONASS, and BDS were estimated using a regional network, and undifferenced PPP ambiguity resolution was performed to assess the contribution of multi-GNSSs. Generally, over 99% of a posteriori residuals of wide-lane ambiguities were within ±0.25 cycles for both GPS and BDS, while the value was 91.5% for GLONASS. Over 96% of narrow-lane residuals were within ±0.15 cycles for GPS, GLONASS, and BDS. For kinematic PPP with a 10-min observation time, only 16.2% of all cases could be fixed with GPS alone. However, adding GLONASS improved the percentage considerably to 75.9%, and it reached 90.0% when using GPS + GLONASS + BDS. Not all epochs could be fixed with a correct set of ambiguities; therefore, we defined the ratio of the number of epochs with correctly fixed ambiguities to the number of all fixed epochs as the correct fixing rate (CFR). Because partial ambiguity fixing was used, when more than five ambiguities were fixed correctly, we considered the epoch correctly fixed. For the small ratio criteria of 2.0, the CFR improved considerably from 51.7% for GPS alone, to 98.3% when using GPS + GLONASS + BDS combined solutions.  相似文献   

Denoising effect of multiscale multiway analysis on high-rate GPS observations     

Li  Yanyan  Xu  Caijun  Yi  Lei 《GPS Solutions》2017,21(1):31-41

GPS Solutions - In general, high-rate GPS data sets are subject to common mode error (CME), multipath error, and high-frequency random noise, which adversely affect the GPS positioning accuracy. In...  相似文献