基于Monte Carlo模拟的三维剖面地质界线不确定性分析     

侯卫生  杨翘楚  杨亮  崔婵婕 《吉林大学学报(地球科学版)》2017,47(3)

三维剖面地质界线是构建三维地质结构模型的重要基础数据,其不确定性会影响三维模型的几何形态和属性分布。以单一分布为假设前提的统计学不确定性分析方法掩盖了其他概率分布特征对模型的影响。突破单一误差分布条件的假设前提,本文使用Monte Carlo方法模拟了不同概率分布情况下地质剖面数据中地质界线的抽样采集,以及地质界线空间分布的不确定性;依托地质界线空间位置与地质属性的耦合关系,提出了用地质属性概率分布实现地质界线空间不确定性的定量可视化,并结合实际地质剖面探讨了多种概率分布条件下地质界线的空间不确定性。实例研究表明,基于Monte Carlo模拟的不确定性分析方法可以突破单一误差分布假设条件,结合地质属性概率可充分揭示出建模数据的内在不确定性与模型外在要素形态之间的耦合关系。  相似文献   

Seasonal effects on geophysical–geotechnical relationships and their implications for electrical resistivity tomography monitoring of slopes     

R. M. Hen-Jones  P. N. Hughes  R. A. Stirling  S. Glendinning  J. E. Chambers  D. A. Gunn  Y. J. Cui 《Acta Geotechnica》2017,12(5):1159-1173

Current assessments of slope stability rely on point sensors, the results of which are often difficult to interpret, have relatively high costs and do not provide large-area coverage. A new system is under development, based on integrated geophysical–geotechnical sensors to monitor groundwater conditions via electrical resistivity tomography. So that this system can provide end users with reliable information, it is essential that the relationships between resistivity, shear strength, suction and water content are fully resolved, particularly where soils undergo significant cycles of drying and wetting, with associated soil fabric changes. This paper presents a study to establish these relationships for a remoulded clay taken from a test site in Northumberland, UK. A rigorous testing programme has been undertaken, integrating the results of multi-scalar laboratory and field experiments, comparing two-point and four-point resistivity testing methods. Shear strength and water content were investigated using standard methods, whilst a soil water retention curve was derived using a WP4 dewpoint potentiometer. To simulate seasonal effects, drying and wetting cycles were imposed on prepared soil specimens. Results indicated an inverse power relationship between resistivity and water content with limited hysteresis between drying and wetting cycles. Soil resistivity at lower water contents was, however, observed to increase with ongoing seasonal cycling. Linear hysteretic relationships were established between undrained shear strength and water content, principally affected by two mechanisms: soil fabric deterioration and soil suction loss between drying and wetting events. These trends were supported by images obtained from scanning electron microscopy.  相似文献   

Field application at a DNAPL-contaminated site in Nanjing and discussion of a source search algorithm based on stochastic modeling and Kalman filter     

Longting Mo  Shujun Ye  Jichun Wu  Ralph G. StahlJr.  Nancy R. Grosso  Jennifer C. Wang 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2017,76(2):92

Delineation of contaminant sources is vital for successful groundwater and soil remediation. With reliable source information, remediation time and cost can be dramatically reduced. An optimal contamination source search strategy incorporating Monte Carlo method, Kalman filtering and fuzzy set theory was applied to a contaminated site in Nanjing to define suspected multiple DNAPL source locations. Using the available nine sample data, the algorithm identified sources #1 and #4 as true sources, and sources #5 and #6 as false ones. The algorithm results for sources #2 and #3 were inconclusive. Three numerical experiments based on specific site conditions were then designed and conducted to determine the influencing factors on the algorithm’s convergence in sources #2 and #3. The numerical experiments tested the effect of multiple sources, the effect of the sources location in relation to the groundwater flow direction and the effect of a low permeability field on the convergence of the algorithm. Based on the numerical experiments and an understanding of the manufacturing site operations, sources #2 and #3 are likely to be true sources. Their moderate weights have been stabilized due to the existence of multiple true sources and the scarcity of informative sampling data, caused by the low permeability field. The moderate weight value of source #3 also includes a contribution from an overlapping plume caused by the sources’ parallel-to-flow layout pattern. It can be concluded that the algorithm works best for high permeability sites where potential source locations are scattered and source location patterns are orthogonal to the groundwater flow.  相似文献   

Current changes of the lower troposphere temperature in the Moscow region     

M. A. Lokoshchenko  I. A. Korneva  A. V. Kochin  A. Z. Dubovetsky  M. A. Novitsky  P. Ye. Razin 《Izvestiya Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics》2017,53(4):392-401

Modern climatic changes for 1991–2013 in the lower 4-km layer of the atmosphere in the Moscow region are discussed based on long-term measurements using radiosondes in Dolgoprudny near Moscow and sensors installed on a high mast in Obninsk and on a television tower in Ostankino in Moscow. It is shown that at the end of the 20th century and the beginning of the 21st century the mean-annual air temperature at all heights from 2 to 4000 m increased by an average of 0.1°C per year. In recent years, the warming has slowed. Over the last two decades, long-term changes were multidirectional, depending on the season: warming in May–December, cooling in January–February, and no statistically significant changes in March and April. The probable reason for the temperature decrease in the middle of the cold period is changes in the large-scale atmospheric circulation during recent years (the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation in early 2010s). In recent years, the Moscow region climate continentality has increased because of warming in summer and cooling in winter, despite the secular decreasing trend, which was noted before. Mean daily and annual warming rates in Dolgoprudny were higher than in Obninsk. The probable reason is the northward construction expansion and the strengthening of the Moscow heat island. The highest annual temperature amplitude is recorded at heights of 200–300 m.  相似文献   

城市公共自行车自愿碳减排机制初探——以北京市为例     

崔铁宁  鲁婷 《气候变化研究进展》2016,12(2):112-117

公共自行车系统是待开发的交通自愿碳减排项目。本文采用CCER方法学中的“快速公交项目”,计算北京市2012年公共自行车系统自愿碳减排量,并估算收益。结果显示：北京市2012年公共自行车自愿碳减排量为43.95 t CO₂,出售可获得1538元的收益。同时估算得到北京市2015年公共自行车碳减排量为6874.5 t CO₂,出售可获得约24万的收益。因此,北京等交通需求膨胀的特大型城市,随着公共自行车系统的持续壮大发展,公共自行车运营企业的经济效益有望通过碳交易实现较大提升空间。  相似文献   

Evaluating Groundwater Interbasin Flow Using Multiple Models and Multiple Types of Data          下载免费PDF全文

Ming Ye  Liying Wang  Karl. F. Pohlmann  Jenny B. Chapman 《Ground water》2016,54(6):805-817

The groundwater interbasin flow, Q_y, from the north of Yucca Flat into Yucca Flat simulated using the Death Valley Regional Flow System (DVRFS) model greatly exceeds assessments obtained using other approaches. This study aimed to understand the reasons for the overestimation and to examine whether the Q_y estimate can be reduced. The two problems were tackled from the angle of model uncertainty by considering six models revised from the DVRFS model with different recharge components and hydrogeological frameworks. The two problems were also tackled from the angle of parametric uncertainty for each model by first conducting Morris sensitivity analysis to identify important parameters and then conducting Monte Carlo simulations for the important parameters. The uncertainty analysis is general and suitable for tackling similar problems; the Morris sensitivity analysis has been utilized to date in only a limited number of regional groundwater modeling. The simulated Q_y values were evaluated by using three kinds of calibration data (i.e., hydraulic head observations, discharge estimates, and constant‐head boundary flow estimates). The evaluation results indicate that, within the current DVRFS modeling framework, the Q_y estimate can only be reduced to about half of the original estimate without severely deteriorating the goodness‐of‐fit to the calibration data. The evaluation results also indicate that it is necessary to develop a new hydrogeological framework to produce new flow patterns in the DVRFS model. The issues of hydrogeology and boundary flow are being addressed in a new version of the DVRFS model planned for release by the U.S. Geological Survey.  相似文献   

A Comparison of Different-Mode Fields Generated from Grounded-Wire Source Based on the 1D Model   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Nan-Nan Zhou  Guo-qiang Xue  Hai Li  M. Younis  Dong-yang Hou  Hua-sen Zhong  Wei-ying Chen  Jiang-wei Cui 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2016,173(2):591-606

  相似文献   

基于图形处理器的伪谱和高阶有限 差分混合方法地震波数值模拟          下载免费PDF全文

崔丛越  张献兵  王彦宾 《地震学报》2015,37(2):289-298

伪谱和高阶有限差分混合方法, 在垂直方向采用交错网格有限差分算子, 利用其并行程度高的特点, 在水平方向采用伪谱算子, 保留其高精度的优势, 是计算地震波场的有效方法. 图形处理器(graphic processing unit, 简写为GPU) 由于其高度并行性, 在计算此类问题中有显著的优势. 由英伟达(NVIDIA)公司推出的统一计算设备架构(compute unified device architecture, 简写为CUDA)平台极大地简化了GPU编程的难度. 为提高计算效率, 本文实现了基于CUDA 平台的混合方法二维地震波场模拟. 然后基于二维均匀介质模型将CPU与GPU版本的运行时间进行对比. 实际测试结果表明, 基于CUDA 的并行模拟方法在保证计算精度的同时显著地提高了计算速度, 为开展大规模非均匀地球介质地震波传播数值模拟提供了一种可选的方法.   相似文献   

湖北郧县辽瓦店黄土剖面风化特征及其对气候变化的响应     

崔天宇  庞奖励  黄春长  查小春  周亚利  吴帅虎  杨建超 《中国沙漠》2015,35(3):610-615

对湖北郧县辽瓦店剖面的沉积学特征及磁化率、粒度、Rb、Sr含量等理化指标进行了研究。结果表明:辽瓦店剖面自下而上具有马兰黄土(L₁)-过渡层(L_t)-古土壤(S₀)-全新世黄土(L₀)-表土(TS)地层序列;不同地层单元的风化成壤差异明显,其成壤强弱顺序为古土壤S₀成壤最强、全新世黄土L₀和过渡层L_t次之、马兰黄土L₁最弱。成壤强弱的变化揭示出该区晚更新世末期(11 500 a BP以前)气候干冷,全新世早期(11 500~8 500 a BP)气候处于晚更新世干冷向全新世中期暖湿的过渡阶段,全新世中期(8 500~3 100 a BP)气候最为温暖湿润,全新世晚期(3 100 a BP以来)气候转为干冷且逐渐恶化的变化过程。  相似文献   

基于ISSR分子标记数据的兰州百合核心种质构建方法研究     

李谋强  师桂英  叶树辉  黄彦玮  边小荣 《中国沙漠》2015,35(6):1573-1578

利用ISSR分析获得的数据,研究了依据Nei & Li、SM和Jaccard遗传距离,采用UPGMA聚类法进行逐步聚类筛选核心种质的效果,并最终采用SM遗传距离逐步聚类从175份兰州百合种质中筛选出了37份核心种质。保留了初始种质21.14%的样品,多态性位点数、多态性位点百分率、Nei's遗传多样性指数和Shannon's信息指数的保留率分别为96.08%、96.59%、105.27%、103.62%,t检验表明核心种质的Nei's遗传多样性指数和Shannon's信息指数与原种质没有显著差异,表明构建的核心种质能很好的代表原始种质的遗传多样性。  相似文献