国家级决策气象服务需求变化分析          下载免费PDF全文

梁科  王亚伟  何孟洁  喻迎春 《气象与减灾研究》2020,43(3):210-215

为进一步了解国家级决策气象服务需求变化情况,通过调查问卷方式,收集国家级决策气象服务用户对决策气象服务工作的有关意见,结合2018年决策气象服务具体数据,分析党中央和国务院机构调整后,决策对象对气象灾害的关注特点以及对气象服务需求的变化。据此提出决策气象服务供给侧改革建议,1） 调整决策气象服务业务流程,优化决策气象服务产品内容。2） 推动发展新一代气象服务信息系统,提高决策气象服务技术能力。3） 推动建立与重点部门的沟通对接机制,为重点部门提供定制化、模块化决策气象服务信息支撑,实现用户向制作方的反馈机制。  相似文献   

西宁曹家堡机场雷暴统计特征分析     

马申佳  吴丹  任景轩  吴春刚  何宏让 《气象与减灾研究》2020,43(3):180-186

基于2006—2015年西宁曹家堡机场的雷暴观测资料,从雷暴日（次）数、持续时间、初现方位、伴随天气现象和雷暴初终日特征方面对该高原机场的雷暴特征进行统计分析。结果表明,曹家堡机场年平均雷暴日数为34.7 d,主要发生在5—9月,夏季是该机场雷暴的集中爆发期;雷暴具有明显的日变化特征,集中发生在午后至夜间（16—22时）,持续时间在2 h以内;雷暴初现方位以偏西、偏北为主,偏西、偏北的对流云团发展是该机场飞行保障的关注重点;雷暴伴随天气现象以干雷暴和小阵雨为主,而少数伴有中、大阵雨的强雷暴主要发生在夏季;雷暴初终日平均间隔为173.2 d,并且初雷能充分体现该机场的典型雷暴特征。  相似文献   

鄱阳湖区风电场风电功率预报研究     

吴琼  贺志明 《气象与环境科学》2020,43(1):90-95

风力发电作为一种无污染可再生的能源,已逐渐成为许多国家能源战略可持续发展的重要组成部分。风电场风能预报是风力发电开发中的关键技术问题。为研究鄱阳湖区风力发电预报技术,采用中尺度模式WRF和微尺度模块CALMET对鄱阳湖区长岭风电场进行了200 m水平分辨率风能预报,并根据长岭机组理论功率曲线表和实测数据拟合出理论和实际发电机组功率曲线模型及平均有功功率与发电量模型。根据WRF+CALMET模式预报风速及建立的发电机组功率曲线模型和平均有功功率与发电量模型,预报了长岭风电场发电量。结果表明:长岭风电场23座风机逐小时风速预报值与观测值相关系数为0.42~0.61,均方根误差为2.59~3.68,相对误差为-13.7%~17.4%;对整个风场,预报风速与观测风速的相关系数为0.55,均方根误差为2.8,相对误差为-4.79%。实测发电量值高于预报值,平均偏大39.7 kW,相对误差为-12.6%,预报值与实测值相关性较好,相关系数达到0.52。总体来说,根据中尺度数值模式预报的风速结合风功率、发电量模型预测出的发电量与实测值较为接近,但各月差异性较大。  相似文献   

世界各国静止气象卫星发展综述     

何兴伟  冯小虎  韩琦  康宁  郭强  彭艺 《气象科学进展》2020,10(1):22-29,41

首先阐述了美国、欧洲气象卫星组织(EUMETSAT)、日本静止气象卫星的发展历史,从自旋稳定到三轴稳定,从单一载荷到多载荷并行工作,新一代的静止气象卫星的时间、空间和光谱分辨率都大幅提高,然后重点介绍了我国静止气象卫星风云二号和风云四号,相比于自旋稳定的风云二号气象卫星,风云四号卫星的功能和性能实现了跨越式的发展,接着简单介绍了俄罗斯、印度和韩国等其他国家静止气象卫星的发展状况,最后总结了不同时期各国静止气象卫星的发展特点,这对我国后续静止气象卫星的规划和研制有重要参考意义。  相似文献   

宜春地区三类典型天气的风廓线雷达产品特征分析     

苏俐敏  郭水连  帅莉莉  何文 《气象与减灾研究》2013,(3):63-68

选取江西省宜春市晴空、弱降水、强降水三类天气过程个例,结合天气形势、雷达回波、气象要素等资料,对比分析了风廓线雷达产品特征。结果表明：（1）在晴空天气背景下,风廓线雷达探测高度低,水平风速小,垂直风速正负值交替出现,大气折射率结构常数（Cn2）值最小。（2）在稳定性弱降水天气背景下,大气呈稳定状态,风廓线雷达探测高度随降水的产生而逐渐抬升,高低层有明显的风速切变,850 hPa赣南至赣东北有西南急流穿过,赣北有切变线存在,利于降水产生,垂直风速因降水影响出现朝向雷达正速度,Cn2值比晴空时大。（3）在具有产生强对流天气背景下,大气中对流强烈,风廓线雷达的水平风速增大,西南急流深厚且不断下沉,850-700 hPa有强烈的垂直切变,动力条件和水汽条件利于强降水产生,垂直风速表现为更大的朝向雷达正速度,Cn2值比弱降水时的大。  相似文献   

The population structural transition effect on rising per capita CO2 emissions: evidence from China     

Junfeng Wang  Yaqing Wu  Yue Zhao  Shutong He  Zhanfeng Dong  Wenguang Bo 《Climate Policy》2013,13(10):1250-1269

ABSTRACT

The per capita CO₂ emissions (PCCE) of many developing countries like China have been rising faster than total CO₂ emissions, and display spatial divergence. Such temporal growth and spatial divergence will have a significant influence on efforts to mitigate CO₂ emissions. Given the research gap on the impact of the structural transition in population on PCCE, we constructed an econometric model using the dynamic panel method. The results reveal that the population structural transition has a significant nonlinear impact on PCCE, as the rate of population growth in China decelerates. Both demographic ageing and urban-rural migration have a stronger impact on PCCE than other factors. This effect, however, decreases beyond a certain threshold. An increase in the number of households due to urbanization and family downsizing has resulted in a positive effect on PCCE, without a threshold turning point. The research also finds that an increased share of the service sector in employment can reduce PCCE only if the sector employs more than 31.56% of the total employed population. Overall, these findings indicate that policymakers should pay attention to the prominence of the demographic structural transition for effective climate policy.

Key policy insights

• Policymakers should address rising per capita carbon emissions (PCCE) and their spatial divergence in future climate policies, not just total CO₂ emissions.

• The transitioning demographics of ageing and urbanization in China show a nonlinear, inverted U-shaped effect on PCCE instead of a continuously positive effect.

• Based on the nonlinear effect of employment structure on PCCE, policymakers should focus on the relationship between the structural transition of the economy and PCCE in future climate mitigation policies.

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分布式气象内容管理系统设计     

何险峰  马力  罗永康 《气象科技》2013,41(6):1036-1042

提出了一套分布式气象内容管理系统的设计思路及其技术方法。以中国气象组织体系（包括中央及各省市的气象信息网络和服务器设备）为建设基础,采用LDM通信传输、存储/内容管理、图形化服务产品生成、本体化气象服务、行政区变尺度客观分析等构成组件,构建了覆盖中央及各省市气象业务和服务的分布式气象内容管理系统。实践运行表明,这种采用了统一定义、接口及信息表达方式的内容管理系统可有效提高气象数据的访问、分享及处理效率,加快了各种气象服务产品的开发速度,拓宽了气象信息的服务范围。  相似文献   

Data processing and initial results from the CE-3 Extreme Ultraviolet Camera     

Jian-Qing Feng  Jian-Jun Liu  Fei He  Wei Yan  Xin Ren  Xu Tan  Ling-Ping He  Bo Chen  Wei Zuo  Wei-Bin Wen  Yan Su  Yong-Liao Zou  Chun-Lai Li 《中国天文和天体物理学报》2014,(12)

The Extreme Ultraviolet Camera(EUVC) onboard the Chang'e-3(CE-3)lander is used to observe the structure and dynamics of Earth's plasmasphere from the Moon. By detecting the resonance line emission of helium ions(He+) at 30.4 nm, the EUVC images the entire plasmasphere with a time resolution of 10 min and a spatial resolution of about 0.1 Earth radius(RE) in a single frame. We first present details about the data processing from EUVC and the data acquisition in the commissioning phase, and then report some initial results, which reflect the basic features of the plasmasphere well. The photon count and emission intensity of EUVC are consistent with previous observations and models, which indicate that the EUVC works normally and can provide high quality data for future studies.  相似文献   

浙江中部芙蓉山花岗斑岩及包体岩石地球化学研究     

杜秀玲  汪方跃  闫海洋  顾海欧  孙贺  葛粲 《地质论评》2022,68(1):18-46

花岗岩的源区、温压条件及与其他岩石的共生组合的研究可以限定其形成构造背景,了解其形成的深部动力学过程.本文对浙江中部中生代芙蓉山花岗斑岩及其暗色包体开展了全岩主微量元素、锆石U-Pb年代学和Hf同位素、Ti温度计和全岩Sr—Nd同位素研究,探讨芙蓉山花岗斑岩的成因类型、源区特征及其与镁铁质包体之间的关系,并进一步限定其...  相似文献   

Photometric Studies of Twelve Deep, Low-mass Ratio Overcontact Binary Systems     

Qian Shengbang  Yang Yuangui  Zhu Liying  He Jiajia  Yuan Jingzhao 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2006,304(1-4):25-28

The formations of the blue straggler stars and the FK Com-type stars are unsolved problems in stellar astrophysics. One of the possibilities for their formations is from the coalescence of W UMa-type overcontact binary systems. Therefore, deep (f > 50%), low-mass ratio (q < 0.25) overcontact binary stars are a very important source to understand the phenomena of Blue Straggler/FK Com-type stars. Recently, 12 W UMa-type binary stars, FG Hya, GR Vir, IK Per, TV Mus, CU Tau, V857 Her, V410 Aur, XY Boo, SX CrV, QX And, GSC 619-232, and AH Cnc, were investigated photometrically. Apart from TV Mus, XY boo, and GSC 619-232, new observations of the other 9 binaries were obtained. Complete light curves of the 10 systems, FG Hya, GR Vir, IK Per, TV Mus, CU Tau, V857 Her, GSC 619-232, V410 Aur, XY Boo, and AH Cnc, were analyzed with the 2003 version of the W-D code. It is shown that all of those systems are deep (f > 50%), low-mass ratio (q < 0.25) overcontact binary stars. We found that the system GSC 619-232 has the highest degree of overcontact (f = 93.4%). The derived photometric mass ratio of V857 Her, q = 0.0653, indicates that it is the lowest-mass ratio system among W UMa-type binaries.Of the 12 sample stars, long-term period changes of 11 systems were found. About 58% (seven) of the sample binaries show cyclic period oscillation. No cyclic period changes were discovered for the other 5 systems, which may be caused by the short observational time interval or by insufficient observations. Therefore, we think that all W UMa-type binary stars may contain cyclic period variations. By considering the long-term period changes (both increase and decrease) of those binary stars, we proposed two evolutionary scenarios evolving from deep, low-mass ratio overcontact binaries into Blue Straggler/FK Com-type stars.  相似文献