台风路径预报套网格模式的试验     

朱永禔  徐一鸣  胡富泉  丁荣富  倪允琪 《气象学报》1982,40(3):257-270

为了提高差分模式的分辨率,以改进台风路径预报。本文提出了原始方程模式的两种嵌套网格方案。试验表明,所提异模式嵌套网格交界域变量的衔接、协调处理是有效的;以轴对称正态分布模拟台风环流对于合风路径数值预报是适宜的。个例计算及1980年试用结果表明,套网格方案对路径预报有不同程度改进。  相似文献   

The foreshock sequence of haicheng earthquake and earthquake swarm—the use of foreshock sequences in earthquake prediction     

Shaoxie Xu  Biquan Wang  Lucille M Jones  Xiufang Ma  Peiwen Shen 《Tectonophysics》1982,85(1-2)

We have compared the Haicheng foreshock sequence with several earthquake swarms which occurred in its neighborhood. The spatial distribution of the earthquakes is relatively concentrated. For the most part, the events occurred within a few kilometers of each other. The focal mechanisms are comparatively stable. However, there are several swarms in which the variations of focal mechanisms are quite obvious after the occurrence of the largest event of the sequence, which would allow it to be recognized as a swarm. However, there are also swarms whose focal mechanisms are no less stable throughout the sequence compared to the Haicheng foreshock sequence. This feature could thus not be used to identify a foreshock sequence. The temporal distributions of foreshocks and swarms are quite similar in some cases. This is again not a definite criterion for identifying foreshocks, but is worthy of further study. Thus, no definite criterion for identifying foreshock sequences has been found. However, some earthquake swarms may be recognized in their later stage.Finally, we introduced a magnitude sequence with gaps which can be used to see whether a large event is still forthcoming. This method (in conjunction with other methods) could be used in areas prone to large earthquakes, immediately before a large event, to improve the probability of predicting the occurrence of a large event. We also report that the temporal distribution of all the sequences showed a 12-hour recurrence pattern that corresponded with the earth tides, indicating that tidal forces might be influencing foreshocks and earthquake swarm occurrence.  相似文献   

江苏溧阳平桥脉型膨润土          下载免费PDF全文

许冀泉  方邺森  方金满 《地质科学》1982,(4):429-433

近年来,江苏南部发现了许多膨润土矿,矿点广布于镇江地区的溧阳、溧水、丹徒、句容及南京市郊的江宁县。其中多数矿点是由中生代陆相火山沉积岩系蚀变形成,呈层状、似层状产出,唯溧阳平桥膨润土是由花岗斑岩等超浅成侵入岩经热液蚀变形成,呈脉状产出,产状罕见。此类矿床质地纯净,是一种新型的优质膨润土矿。本文对溧阳平桥脉型膨润土进行了矿物学研究。  相似文献   

Mineralogical study of spinel-lherzolite inclusions from basalts in southern and eastern China     

Wankang Huang  Jianguo Xu  Zhenmin Gao  Junya Nan 《中国地球化学学报》1983,2(4):361-376

Ten spinel-lherzolite inclusions and one olivine-websterite inclusion, which were collected from Fujian, Jiangsu, Hebei and Yunnan Provinces, consist of olivine (FΦ_87.7–91.2), enstatite (En_87.3–89.7), Cr-diopside and spinel. According to the Mg/(Mg+Fe²⁺) ratios in the rocks and their mineralogies, they are designated to the Cr-diopside type. The websterite is composed of bronzite (En_71.9) and augite, while the gabbro-norite consists of hypersthene (En_68.9) and augite, belonging to the Al-augite type. The geothermos of spinel-lherzolites were calculated with four geothermometric methods, giving a temperature range of 925°–1,072°C. However, according to P. R. A. Wells' method, temperatures range from 845δ to 1,014°C, and by D. H. Lindsly's approach, from 716°–974°C. Pressures range from 15.1 to 19.8 kb. Genetically, Spinel-lherzolites and olivine-websterite are thought to have been derived from residual mantle material by partial melting at approximately 1,000°C and at a depth of about 50–70 km. Websterite and gabbro-norite may be products of the crystallization-differentiation of alkali basaltic magma.  相似文献   

The stability of Foundation Rock in Gezhouba Project     

Xu Dongjun  Luo Hongxi 《岩土力学》1983,4(1):1-15

The results of the stability study of dam foundation , including the effects of ground stresses on the stability of base masses and long-term stability and strength of weak intercalations , especially of clayey ones, are presented. It is proved that the considerable tectonic stresses exist even in red rock layers with slight folds and a gentle terrain and that the stability of masses are directly affected by local stress relief. It is found that sedimentary rock behaves like rheology. A method of deter-mining long-term strength of rheological rock is suggested.  相似文献   

云南月气候变化的一种多时间序列预测模型   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

段旭  李敏  尤卫红 《高原气象》2001,20(4):441-446

为了充分利用过去和现在对气候系统进行定时观测而积累的大量数据 ,本文提出了月气候变化的一种多时间序列逐月滚动预测模型 ,并从与云南月气候变化有某种物理关系的 2 0多个时间序列出发 ,实际建立了一个云南月气候变化的多时间序列逐月滚动预测模型。在提前预测的时间尺度为 2个月的条件下 ,该模型对云南 80个气象观测站点 1995年 1月— 1999年 10月的逐月雨量和气温预测结果检验的最新业务标准评分平均可分别达到 6 6 .7%和 79.0 %。该评分成绩已明显高于云南省气象台目前的实际业务预测水平 ,并达到了“九五”攻关的目标要求 ,因此该模型的建立具有重要的实际意义  相似文献   

强震地面运动的超随机特性研究   总被引：4，自引：4，他引：4  

徐国栋  周锡元  董娣  杨润林 《地震工程与工程振动》2005,25(2):1-9

简述了几种常用的地震动平稳随机模型，这几种地震动平稳随机模型的功率谱是一组光滑的函数，相应的自相关函数基本上是指数衰减的振荡函数，且很快衰减到零；但是真实地震动的归一化自相关函数则有一较显著的随机噪声项，这个随机噪声的幅值为0．15左右，这就是本文中所说的超随机特性。目前常用的地震动平稳随机模型没有考虑这个随机噪声项及其对结构反应的影响。本文将真实地震动的自相关函数分解为一确定性函数和一随机噪声的叠加，并对自相关函数中的噪声部分进行了分析，得出两条重要性质。本文的研究结果表明地震动加速度时程的平方和(SS)比峰值加速度(PGA)更好地量度了地震地面运动强度。由于归一化自相关函数的随机噪声部分所对应的功率谱的随机波动成分对频率的积分为零，即归一化自相关函数的噪声部分对地震动总功率或平方和的贡献为零，因此自相关函数的随机噪声项对地震动的幅值影响不大，但自相关函数的随机噪声项明显改变了地震动功率谱在频域上的分布特征，因此会对结构反应产生一定的影响。由于篇幅所限详细内容将在下一篇文章中作进一步探讨。  相似文献   

多维地震动各方向相关性对拱坝动应力的影响     

吴健  金峰  徐艳杰 《地震工程与工程振动》2005,25(2):50-54

本文将随机振动的虚拟激励法与拱坝-地基动力相互作用FE-BE-IBE时域模型结合，发展了一个可以考虑多维随机地震动作用下的拱坝动力响应计算模型，并用Monte Garlo方法对模型进行了验证，计算结果表明，地震动分量的相关性对结构的动力响应存在一定影响，合理考虑地震动各方向分量的相关性可以更好地计算实际地震作用下的拱坝动力响应。  相似文献   

对GPS接收机测试评估的探讨   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1  

尹继尧  徐平  杨天青  吴培稚 《地震地磁观测与研究》2005,26(6):99-104

随着GPS的广泛应用和GPS产业的迅速发展，GPS厂家众多，生产的接收机类型更是数以百计，整个GPS接收机市场可以说是鱼目混珠，识别困难；大多数购买者只能听信厂家的技术指标，如何对GPS接收机的性能进行测试评估的意义显得很重要，本文基于此对GPS接收机测试评估展开探讨和研究。  相似文献   

基于中等复杂地球系统模式的全新世 气候突变事件模拟试验^*     

徐韵  陈星 《第四纪研究》2007,27(3):392-400

全新世暖湿气候背景下的代表性气候突变是发生在约8.2kaB.P. 和4.2kaB.P. 的气候突然变冷变干的事件。对于气候突变事件的出现,海洋环流被普遍认为是其中的关键环节。科学家们利用不同类型的气候模式进行过个例和机理模拟试验,但还未能对气候突变机理做出合理的解释。本研究使用一个中等复杂程度的地球系统模式EMIC ( Earth-system Models Intermediate Complexity) MPM-2,模拟研究了全新世气候背景下北大西洋区域,淡水强迫机制作用对温盐环流以及全球气候的可能影响、气候系统响应和恢复时间特征以及南北半球的差异。模拟结果表明海洋对北大西洋淡水通量异常的强度响应敏感,海洋环流对热量和盐份的输送与淡水通量异常强度之间的平衡决定了温盐环流能否对淡水强迫产生不可逆转变,当淡水通量异常达到某一阈值后可能引起海洋和气候平衡态的改变。同时还发现,在气候变化过程中,两次淡水通量异常对海洋和大气系统的强迫作用是不同的,首次淡水通量异常对气候平衡态的影响要远大于其后的淡水通量异常。模拟结果还表明,北大西洋海洋的异常状况可以通过海洋、大气等各圈层相互作用传递到不同圈层和空间区域,在南北半球出现不同的响应特征。上述模拟结果对于认识全新世气候变化特征、不同突变事件之间的关系及其对现代气候的可能影响具有启发意义。  相似文献