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21.
We investigated dam behaviours during high-flow events and their robustness against perturbations in meteorological conditions using the H08 global hydrological model. Differences in these behaviours were examined by comparing simulation runs, with and without dams and using multiple meteorological datasets, at a case-study site, Fort Peck Dam on the Missouri River, USA. The results demonstrated that dam-regulated river flow reduced temporal variability over large time periods and also dampened inter-forcing discrepancies in river discharge (smoothing effects). However, during wet years, differences in peak flow were accentuated downstream of the dam, resulting in divergence in simulated peak flow across the meteorological forcing (pulsing effect). The pulsing effect was detected at other major dams in global simulations. Depending upon the meteorological forcing, the dams act as a selective filter against high-flow events. Synergy between a generic dam scheme and differences in meteorological forcing data might introduce additional uncertainties in global hydrological simulations. 相似文献
22.
An overview of decadal climate predictability in a multi-model ensemble by climate model MIROC 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Yoshimitsu Chikamoto Masahide Kimoto Masayoshi Ishii Takashi Mochizuki Takashi T. Sakamoto Hiroaki Tatebe Yoshiki Komuro Masahiro Watanabe Toru Nozawa Hideo Shiogama Masato Mori Sayaka Yasunaka Yukiko Imada 《Climate Dynamics》2013,40(5-6):1201-1222
Decadal climate predictability is examined in hindcast experiments by a multi-model ensemble using three versions of the coupled atmosphere-ocean model MIROC. In these hindcast experiments, initial conditions are obtained from an anomaly assimilation procedure using the observed oceanic temperature and salinity with prescribed natural and anthropogenic forcings on the basis of the historical data and future emission scenarios in the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change. Results of the multi-model ensemble in our hindcast experiments show that predictability of surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies on decadal timescales mostly originates from externally forced variability. Although the predictable component of internally generated variability has considerably smaller SAT variance than that of externally forced variability, ocean subsurface temperature variability has predictive skills over almost a decade, particularly in the North Pacific and the North Atlantic where dominant signals associated with Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) are observed. Initialization enhances the predictive skills of AMO and PDO indices and slightly improves those of global mean temperature anomalies. Improvement of these predictive skills in the multi-model ensemble is higher than that in a single-model ensemble. 相似文献
23.
Yoshimitsu Masaki Yasushi Ishigooka Tsuneo Kuwagata Shinkichi Goto Shinji Sawano Toshihiro Hasegawa 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2011,106(3-4):383-401
We have studied future changes in the atmospheric and hydrological environments in Northeast Thailand from the viewpoint of risk assessment of future cultural environments in crop fields. To obtain robust and reliable estimation for future climate, ten general circulation models under three warming scenarios, B1, A1B, and A2, were used in this study. The obtained change trends show that daily maximum air temperature and precipitation will increase by 2.6°C and 4.0%, respectively, whereas soil moisture will decrease by c.a. 1% point in volumetric water content at the end of this century under the A1B scenario. Seasonal contrasts in precipitation will intensify: precipitation increases in the rainy season and precipitation decreases in the dry season. Soil moisture will slightly decrease almost throughout the year. Despite a homogeneous increase in the air temperature over Northeast Thailand, a future decrease in soil water content will show a geographically inhomogeneous distribution: Soil will experience a relative larger decrease in wetness at a shallow depth on the Khorat plateau than in the surrounding mountainous area, reflecting vegetation cover and soil texture. The predicted increase in air temperature is relatively consistent between general circulation models. In contrast, relatively large intermodel differences in precipitation, especially in long-term trends, produce unwanted bias errors in the estimation of other hydrological elements, such as soil moisture and evaporation, and cause uncertainties in projection of the agro-climatological environment. Offline hydrological simulation with a wide precipitation range is one strategy to compensate for such uncertainties and to obtain reliable risk assessment of future cultural conditions in rainfed paddy fields in Northeast Thailand. 相似文献
24.
Qian Zhou Naota Hanasaki Shinichiro Fujimori Yoshimitsu Masaki Yasuaki Hijioka 《Climatic change》2018,147(1-2):77-90
Hydropower generation plays a key role in mitigating GHG emissions from the overall power supply. Although the maximum achievable hydropower generation (MAHG) will be affected by climate change, it is seldom incorporated in integrated assessment models. In this study, we first used the H08 global hydrological model to project MAHG under two physical climate change scenarios. Then, we used the Asia-Pacific Integrated Model/Computable General Equilibrium integrated assessment model to quantify the economic consequences of the presence or absence of mitigation policy on hydropower generation. This approach enabled us to quantify the physical impacts of climate change and the effect of mitigation policy—together and in isolation—on hydropower generation and the economy, both globally and regionally. Although there was little overall global change, we observed substantial differences among regions in the MAHG average change (from ??71% in Middle East to 14% in Former Soviet Union in RCP8.5). We found that the magnitude of changes in regional gross domestic product (GDP) was small negative (positive) in Brazil (Canada) by 2100, for the no mitigation policy scenario. These consequences were intensified with the implementation of mitigation policies that enhanced the price competitiveness of hydropower against fossil fuel-powered technologies. Overall, our results suggested that there would be no notable globally aggregated impacts on GDP by 2100 because the positive effects in some regions were canceled out by negative effects in other regions. 相似文献
25.
Yoshimitsu Fukushima Onur Köse Tekin Yürür Philippe Volant Edward Cushing Richard Guillande 《Journal of Seismology》2002,6(3):379-396
The 17 August 1999 Kocaeli earthquake in Turkey produced a majorsurface rupture. We traced this surface rupture from Gölcük toDüzce and located it accurately by using GPS. The closest distancefrom the surface rupture to the strong motion observation sites weredetermined. Then the attenuation characteristics of the observed peakground acceleration were compared with the attenuation relation given byFukushima and Tanaka (1992), which is suitable for the near-fault zone inJapan and gives results that closely match data recorded during the 1995Hyogo-ken Nanbu earthquake in Japan. Although this attenuation relationwas developed for Japan, we found that it agreed well with the KOCAELIearthquake. Furthermore, the observed spectral acceleration of 5%damping was compared with the building design code of Turkey and theobserved level was lower than the code. 相似文献
26.
The 11 March 2011 East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami caused unprecedented damage to well-engineered buildings and coastal structures. This report presents some notable field observations of structural damage based on our surveys conducted along the Sanriku coast in April and June 2011. Engineered reinforced concrete buildings failed by rotation due to the high-velocity and deep tsunami inundation: entrapped air in the buildings and soil liquefaction by ground shaking could have contributed to the failure. The spatial distribution pattern of destroyed and survived buildings indicates that the strength of tsunami was affected significantly by the locations of well-engineered sturdy buildings: weaker buildings in the shadow zone tended to survive while jet and wake formations behind the sturdy buildings enhanced the tsunami forces. We also found that buildings with breakaway walls or breakaway windows/doors remained standing even if the surrounding buildings were washed away or destroyed. Several failure patterns of coastal structures (seawalls) were observed. Flow-induced suction pressure near the seawall crown could have caused the failure of concrete panels that covered the infill. Remarkable destruction of upright solid-concrete type seawalls was closely related with the tsunami induced scour and soil instability. The rapid decrease in inundation depth during the return-flow phase caused soil fluidization down to a substantial depth. This mechanism explains severely undermined roads and foundations observed in the area of low flow velocities. 相似文献
27.
Geochemical distribution of trace metal pollutants in water and sediments of downstream of an urban river 总被引：11，自引：8，他引：3
K. M. Mohiuddin H. M. Zakir Ph.D. K. Otomo S. Sharmin N. Shikazono Ph.D. 《International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology》2010,7(1):17-28
A study was conducted to investigate the trace metal pollution of water and sediments of downstream of Tsurumi River, Yokohama, Japan. Twenty samples of water and sediments were collected from the river starting from Tokyo bay side up to the junction point of the Yagami River. Results show that the mean concentrations of chromium, cupper and nickel in water greatly exceed (>100 times) the surface water standard. The concentration of molybdenum and lead was also higher than standard values while iron and manganese was lower than that of surface water standard. The mean concentration of zinc, cupper, cadmium, lead, chromium, vanadium, bromine and iodine was 381.1, 133.0, 1.0, 40.8, 102.9, 162.0, 71.5 and 10.6 μg/g sediments, respectively and was greatly exceed the average worldwide shale concentrations and average Japanese river sediment values. However, mean concentration of arsenic, nickel and strontium was 11.0, 36.6 and 164.6 μg/g sediments, respectively which was lower than the average shale value. Other analyzed trace metals, including barium, zirconium, rubidium, yttrium, tin, antimony, cesium, lanthanum, cerium, praseodymium and neodymium were detected in river sediments; the concentration of which was close to the Japan’s river sediment average values. Pollution load index values of the sites of the studied area ranged from 1.24 to 7.65 which testify that the river sediments are polluted. The PLI value of the area was, however, high (6.53) as the concentration of trace metals like zinc, cupper, cadmium, lead and chromium were very high and were the major pollutants. 相似文献