基于小波长短期记忆网络的风电功率超短期概率预测     

王朋  孙永辉  翟苏巍  候栋宸  王森 《南京气象学院学报》2019,11(4):460-466

随着大规模的风电并网,风电所具有的间歇性与随机性对电力系统的稳定性产生了很大的影响,风电功率预测成为当前解决该问题重要的方式之一.本文利用长短期记忆（LSTM）网络良好的时序记忆特性,将小波分解技术与LSTM深度网络结合,提出基于小波长短期记忆网络的风电功率超短期概率预测模型.首先通过小波分解技术将原始时间序列进行平稳化处理,再建立各子序列样本的LSTM网络预测模型,借助最大似然估计法估计预测误差的高斯分布函数,最终实现对未来4 h时刻的风电功率概率区间预测.最后,采用中国东北某风电场数据对所提方法进行算例分析,结果表明,将小波分解与深度学习方法结合可以较好地提高预测的精度,提高概率预测的区间可靠性.  相似文献   

额济纳绿洲沙尘暴沉积特征     

温小浩  李保生  王为  LI Sen  OU Xianjiao  ZHENG Yanming 《地理学报(英文版)》2006,16(4):502-508

1 Introduction Oases are unique ecosystems and important residences for our ancestors in arid and semiarid regions of the world, and have deeply been imprinted by human actions, such as Jericho oasis of Jordan Valley, Jarmo oasis of the Euphrates River an…  相似文献   

黄淮海地区1961~2006年干湿状况时空变化   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

李森  吕厚荃  张艳红  韩丽娟  杨霏云  吴超 《气象科技》2008,36(5):601-605

自20世纪60年代以来,黄淮海地区的气候出现了降水减少、气温升高的变化趋势,分析气象要素之间的关系及其变化规律,对于合理规划水资源,保障经济可持续发展具有积极的意义.利用干燥度指数对该地区的干湿状况进行了分析,将该地区划分为湿润、半湿润、半湿润半干旱、半干旱半湿润和半干旱5个干湿气候区,其中以半干旱区范围最大.不同干湿类型区域间有明显的纬向分布特征,地势起伏亦对于湿区域的空间分布产生影响.对季节间干湿状况差异分析结果表明,该地区以夏季最为湿润,而冬春两季最为干燥.对年代间干湿状况变化分析表明,20世纪60年代和80年代半干旱区的范围相对较大,80年代半湿润和半湿润半干旱区的范围最大.对逐年干燥度变化趋势的分析表明,随着时间的推移.黄淮海地区干湿区域间的差异有变得更加显著的趋势,即半干旱区干燥度指数逐渐增大,而半湿润和湿润区的干燥度指数趋向减小.  相似文献   

Sea Level Rise in Miami Beach: Vulnerability and Real Estate Exposure     

Zella Ann Conyers  Richard Grant  Shouraseni Sen Roy 《The Professional geographer》2019,71(2):278-291

Sea level rise threatens coastal communities throughout the United States, and South Florida is on the front line. The iconic and built-up city of Miami Beach, Florida, has a well-developed, high-value property market, and the municipality has been lauded for proactively taking action to adapt to anticipated sea level rise. Moving beyond hyperbole and piecemeal evidence, we compile a comprehensive inventory of adaptation and mitigation measures implemented by various municipal agencies. We employ these data sets to measure exposure and readiness for the entire city and make a preliminary effort to develop a city vulnerability index. Our findings reveal that exposure throughout the city is high and that readiness is concentrated near stormwater drainage systems, leading to high vulnerability along the coast. When we compare the spatial patterns of the vulnerability index and the residential property values, we find a mismatch. The most vulnerable regions are characterized by high income, transiency, and an apparent unresponsiveness to sea level rise. No doubt our findings illustrate a lag effect, but if sea level rise increases, the real estate market could reach a tipping point unless state and federal agencies also fund more comprehensive adaptation.  相似文献   

中国耕地土壤相对湿度时空分异   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3  

潘汉雄  朱国锋  张昱  郭慧文  雍磊磊  万巧卓  马惠莹  李森 《地理学报》2019,74(1):117-130

以全国653个农业气象站1993-2013年耕地的土壤相对湿度数据为基础,运用地统计方法,分析中国耕地土壤相对湿度时空分异特征与规律。结果表明:自1993年以来全国耕地的土壤相对湿度呈现波动上升趋势。全国耕地的土壤相对湿度普遍大于60%,分布区域自4月中旬开始随夏季风推移不断向北向西扩大,自10月下旬开始向东、南方向缩小。耕地土壤相对湿度值随土壤深度的增加而增加。年际尺度上,耕地的土壤相对湿度在夏秋季上升速度最快,变化幅度随土层深度增加而变小。土壤相对湿度与降水量存在较强的正相关关系,与潜在蒸发量、气温普遍存在较强的负相关关系。土壤相对湿度与各气象要素的相关性随深度加深而减弱。春、夏、秋季气象因素对旱地土壤相对湿度影响较大,冬季气象因素对水田影响更大。  相似文献   

GIS支持下的土地资源环境承载力评价——以荣成市为例     

邵艳坡  刘森  郭志勇 《北京测绘》2019,33(1):35-39

随着人类生产活动的日益加剧,土地资源环境已逐渐成为制约社会经济发展的主要因素。基于荣成市土地资源环境要素,利用层次分析法构建了区域土地资源环境承载力评价体系。对土地资源进行基础性评价,在GIS技术支持下计算各项指标分值,并得出承载状态压力指数;在基础性评价结果的基础上,对水资源、生态条件与环境质量进行修正性评价。结果显示,荣成市土地资源环境基础性评价为可载,基于水资源系统的综合承载状态为临界,基于生态条件与环境质量系统的综合承载状态为可载。  相似文献   

Effects of salinity fluctuation amplitudes on growth, osmolarity, Na＋-K＋-ATPase activity and Hsp70 of juvenile Chinese shrimp Fenneropenaeus chinensis Osbeck     

丁森  王芳  董双林  高勤峰 《中国海洋湖沼学报》2009,27(4):723-728

The effects of various salinity fluctuation amplitudes (2, 4, 6 and 8) on the growth, osmolarity, Na⁺-K⁺-ATPase activity and Hsp70 of juvenile Fenneropenaeus chinensis cultured in seawater with a salinity of 20 were studied. The results show that weight gain in the salinity fluctuation treatments was better than that in control; in particular, the weight gain of treatments S4 and S0, at 231.8% and 196.3%, respectively, was significantly different (P<0.05). The hemolymph osmolarity of treatments S0, S2, S4, S6 and S8 was 635.4, 630.8, 623.6, 614.4 and 600.3 mOsm/kg, respectively, and decreased with increasing salinity fluctuation amplitude. The level of Na⁺-K⁺-ATPase activity in gills of F. chinensis was higher than that in hepatopancreas, but there were no significant differences among all treatments, either in gills or hepatopancreas (P>0.05). The relative level of Hsp70 in treatment S4 was 48.4% and 40.4% higher than control in muscle and eyestalks, respectively, with the highest values being recorded under a salinity fluctuation amplitude of 4.  相似文献   

Effects of Salinity Fluctuation Frequency on the Growth, Molting Rate and Hemolymph 20-Hydroxyecdysone Concentration in Juvenile Chinese shrimp, Fenneropenaeus chinensis     

DING Sen  WANG Fang  SUN Hao  DONG Shuanglin 《中国海洋大学学报(英文版)》2009,8(3)

This experiment was conducted to examine the effects of salinity fluctuation frequency on the growth, molting rate and hemolymph 20-hydroxyecdysone (20-HE) concentration for juvenile Fenneropenaeus chinensis with an initial wet body weight of 1.115 g±0.012 g. The salinity of the control treatment (represented by D0) was 28 throughout the experiment, whereas treatments D2,D4, D6 and D8 were subjected to different salinity fluctuation frequencies of 2, 4, 6 and 8d, respectively. The range of salinity fluctuation was 4. The salinity in treatments D2, D4, D6 and D8 was kept at 28 for 2, 4, 6 and 8d, respectively; each original salinity was decreased abruptly to salinity 24, which first lasted for another 2d and was then raised to its initial value 28. This constituted a salinity fluctuation cycle and afterwards the cycle repeated. It was found that: 1) The weight gain of shrimp in treatment D4 was 202.9% and significantly higher than that in treatment D0 (P<0.05). The molting rate in treatment D2 was the lowest, while that in treatment D6 was the highest and significantly higher than those in treatments D0 and D2 (P<0.05). 2) The hemolymph 20-HE concentration of shrimps in all treatments was at low levels and increased first gradually during the inter-molt period and then increased sharply. It reached a peak value during the pre-molt stage, and then decreased abruptly during the post-molt stage when the lowest level occurred. 3) During the post-molt stage, the hemolymph 20-HE concentration in treatment D2 was 7.47pgμL-1 and significantly higher than that in treatment D0(P<0.05). There were, however, no significant differences in hemolymph 20-HE concentration among all five treatments during the inter-molt stage (P>0.05). During the pre-molt stage, the hemolymph 20-HE concentration in treatment D6 was significantly higher than that in treatment D0(P<0.05), whereas the hemolymph 20-HE concentration in treatment D2 was significantly lower than that in other treatments (P<0.05). Adequate salinity fluctuation promoted the molting rate through increasing hemolymph 20-HE concentration at the pre-molt stage.  相似文献   

Discrete time-delay control of an autonomous underwater vehicle: Theory and experimental results     

R.P. Kumar  D. Sen 《Ocean Engineering》2009,36(1):74-81

A discrete time-delay control (DTDC) law for a general six degrees of freedom unsymmetric autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) is presented. Hydrodynamic parameters like added mass coefficients and drag coefficients, which are generally uncertain, are not required by the controller. This control law cancels the uncertainties in the AUV dynamics by direct estimation of the uncertainties using time-delay estimation technique. The discrete-time version of the time-delay control does not require the derivative of the system state to be measured or estimated, which is required by the continuous-time version of the controller. This particularly provides an advantage over continuous-time controller in terms of computational effort or availability of sensors for measuring state derivatives, i.e., linear and angular accelerations. Implementation issues for practical realization of the controller are discussed. Experiments on a test-bed AUV were conducted in depth, pitch, and yaw degrees of freedom. Results show that the proposed control law performs well in the presence of uncertainties.  相似文献   

Numerical study of baroclinic tides in Luzon Strait   总被引：6，自引：1，他引：5  

Sen Jan  Ren-Chieh Lien  Chi-Hua Ting 《Journal of Oceanography》2008,64(5):789-802

The spatial and temporal variations of baroclinic tides in the Luzon Strait (LS) are investigated using a three-dimensional tide model driven by four principal constituents, O₁, K₁, M₂ and S₂, individually or together with seasonal mean summer or winter stratifications as the initial field. Barotropic tides propagate predominantly westward from the Pacific Ocean, impinge on two prominent north-south running submarine ridges in LS, and generate strong baroclinic tides propagating into both the South China Sea (SCS) and the Pacific Ocean. Strong baroclinic tides, ∼19 GW for diurnal tides and ∼11 GW for semidiurnal tides, are excited on both the east ridge (70%) and the west ridge (30%). The barotropic to baroclinic energy conversion rate reaches 30% for diurnal tides and ∼20% for semidiurnal tides. Diurnal (O₁ and K₁) and semidiurnal (M₂) baroclinic tides have a comparable depth-integrated energy flux 10–20 kW m⁻¹ emanating from the LS into the SCS and the Pacific basin. The spring-neap averaged, meridionally integrated baroclinic tidal energy flux is ∼7 GW into the SCS and ∼6 GW into the Pacific Ocean, representing one of the strongest baroclinic tidal energy flux regimes in the World Ocean. About 18 GW of baroclinic tidal energy, ∼50% of that generated in the LS, is lost locally, which is more than five times that estimated in the vicinity of the Hawaiian ridge. The strong westward-propagating semidiurnal baroclinic tidal energy flux is likely the energy source for the large-amplitude nonlinear internal waves found in the SCS. The baroclinic tidal energy generation, energy fluxes, and energy dissipation rates in the spring tide are about five times those in the neap tide; while there is no significant seasonal variation of energetics, but the propagation speed of baroclinic tide is about 10% faster in summer than in winter. Within the LS, the average turbulence kinetic energy dissipation rate is O(10⁻⁷) W kg^{− 1} and the turbulence diffusivity is O(10⁻³) m²s⁻¹, a factor of 100 greater than those in the typical open ocean. This strong turbulence mixing induced by the baroclinic tidal energy dissipation exists in the main path of the Kuroshio and is important in mixing the Pacific Ocean, Kuroshio, and the SCS waters.  相似文献