Season-dependent predictability and error growth dynamics of Pacific Decadal Oscillation-related sea surface temperature anomalies     

Wansuo Duan  Yujie Wu 《Climate Dynamics》2015,44(3-4):1053-1072

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Generation of continuous surface soil moisture dataset using combined optical and thermal infrared images          下载免费PDF全文

Pei Leng  Xiaoning Song  Si‐Bo Duan  Zhao‐Liang Li 《水文研究》2017,31(6):1398-1407

Surface soil moisture (SSM) is a critical variable for understanding water and energy flux between the atmosphere and the Earth's surface. An easy to apply algorithm for deriving SSM time series that primarily uses temporal parameters derived from simulated and in situ datasets has recently been reported. This algorithm must be assessed for different biophysical and atmospheric conditions by using actual geostationary satellite images. In this study, two currently available coarse‐scale SSM datasets (microwave and reanalysis product) and aggregated in situ SSM measurements were implemented to calibrate the time‐invariable coefficients of the SSM retrieval algorithm for conditions in which conventional observations are rare. These coefficients were subsequently used to obtain SSM time series directly from Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) images over the study area of a well‐organized soil moisture network named REMEDHUS in Spain. The results show a high degree of consistency between the estimated and actual SSM time series values when using the three SSM dataset‐calibrated time‐invariable coefficients to retrieve SSM, with coefficients of determination (R²) varying from 0.304 to 0.534 and root mean square errors ranging from 0.020 m³/m³ to 0.029 m³/m³. Further evaluation with different land use types results in acceptable debiased root mean square errors between 0.021 m³/m³ and 0.048 m³/m³ when comparing the estimated MSG pixel‐scale SSM with in situ measurements. These results indicate that the investigated method is practical for deriving time‐invariable coefficients when using publicly accessed coarse‐scale SSM datasets, which is beneficial for generating continuous SSM dataset at the MSG pixel scale.  相似文献   

A timescale decomposed threshold regression downscaling approach to forecasting South China early summer rainfall     

Linye Song  Wansuo Duan  Yun Li  Jiangyu Mao 《大气科学进展》2016,33(9):1071-7084

A timescale decomposed threshold regression(TSDTR) downscaling approach to forecasting South China early summer rainfall(SCESR) is described by using long-term observed station rainfall data and NOAA ERSST data. It makes use of two distinct regression downscaling models corresponding to the interannual and interdecadal rainfall variability of SCESR.The two models are developed based on the partial least squares(PLS) regression technique, linking SCESR to SST modes in preceding months on both interannual and interdecadal timescales. Specifically, using the datasets in the calibration period 1915–84, the variability of SCESR and SST are decomposed into interannual and interdecadal components. On the interannual timescale, a threshold PLS regression model is fitted to interannual components of SCESR and March SST patterns by taking account of the modulation of negative and positive phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO). On the interdecadal timescale, a standard PLS regression model is fitted to the relationship between SCESR and preceding November SST patterns. The total rainfall prediction is obtained by the sum of the outputs from both the interannual and interdecadal models. Results show that the TSDTR downscaling approach achieves reasonable skill in predicting the observed rainfall in the validation period 1985–2006, compared to other simpler approaches. This study suggests that the TSDTR approach,considering different interannual SCESR-SST relationships under the modulation of PDO phases, as well as the interdecadal variability of SCESR associated with SST patterns, may provide a new perspective to improve climate predictions.  相似文献   

城区内涝淹没模拟算法     

张振鑫  吴立新  李志锋  杨宜舟  江锦成  许志华 《测绘科学》2016,41(6):87-91

针对城区内涝淹没范围和水深模拟问题,该文提出了一种基于约束Delaunay不规则三角网与三棱柱的城区内涝淹没模拟算法。该算法以沿地面三角形的顶点垂直向上引垂线形成的三棱柱为计算单元,通过"等体积"的方法,建立时间序列切片下的淹没水深和积水量的关系,据此实现淹没范围和水深模拟。以北京师范大学(简称"北师大")主校区为例,对单汇水区的水面高程上升模拟结果与实际观测值进行对比,基本吻合;并与传统栅格DEM的淹没效果进行了对比,表明该算法正确有效。  相似文献   

A Method for Dynamic Risk Assessment and Management of Rockbursts in Drill and Blast Tunnels     

Guo-Feng Liu  Xia-Ting Feng  Guang-Liang Feng  Bing-Rui Chen  Dong-Fang Chen  Shu-Qian Duan 《Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering》2016,49(8):3257-3279

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Rock Mass Deformation Characteristics in High-Steep Slopes Influenced by Open-Pit to Underground Mining     

Chuanbo Zhou  Shiwei Lu  Nan Jiang  Dingbang Zhang  Zhihua Zhang  Gaojian Miao 《Geotechnical and Geological Engineering》2016,34(3):847-866

In Daye Iron Mine, the open-pit mining has ended and the underground mining started in 2003. The present pit slopes are as high as 430 m and the slope angle is up to 43°. During the process of open-pit to underground mining, the high-steep pit slopes would be affected by both open-pit mining and underground mining, and its deformation characteristics would become more complex. So in this paper, the trinity method of numerical simulation, model experiment and field test was adopted to analyze the displacement and stress fields systematically. The results show that: (1) Prominent rebound deformation occurs near the slope foot, which is induced by the unloading in open-pit mining. When it is backfilled to 0 m level, the rebound deformation decreases, which indicate that backfilling mass can restrict the deformation and improve the slope stability; (2) Subsidence dominates the slope deformation in open-pit to underground mining and it increases with an increasing elevation of monitoring point; the maximum horizontal displacement occurs in the lower part of the slopes, because the backfilled part is squeezed by both the north slope and the south slope, and it has a lower elastic modulus than the previous orebody; (3) The stress and its variability near the slope foot are much larger than other places, indicating that the slope foot is most affected by stress redistribution and stress concentration may occur here; the stress at other stress monitoring points changes little, indicating that the influence of open-pit to underground mining is local; (4) The effect of underground mining on the deformation of the faults is not prominent; (5) Mining operations in near-ground part affect more on the variation of deformation and stress of pit slopes than that in deeper part.  相似文献   

利用两种指纹因子判别小流域泥沙来源   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

陈方鑫  张含玉  方怒放  史志华 《水科学进展》2016,27(6):867-875

为精确识别黄土高原丘陵沟壑区典型小流域泥沙来源,分析了流域内“源-汇”地区土壤的理化性质及生物标志物（正构烷烃）作为潜在指纹识别因子,并建立了复合指纹模型。结果显示:单独的土壤理化指纹及正构烷烃均不能有效识别泥沙来源;土壤理化指纹和正构烷烃分别在林地、农地及沟道的辨别上显示出其局限性。多元化的复合指纹（碳优势指数CPI、Ca、TP、C₂₀、C₂₉、Fe）则能辨别90.5%的泥沙来源。模型结果显示沟道是该流域泥沙的主要来源,占60.8%,其次为农地占20.7%,林地占11.3%,草地占7.2%。研究表明,结合生物标志物的复合指纹法能更精确地反映泥沙来源,适用于各泥沙源头的地质条件差异较小的流域,对黄土高原小流域水土流失治理具有指导意义。  相似文献   

胶州湾沉积物重金属形态不同浸取方法的比较与污染讯息指示作用初探   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

梁宪萌  宋金明  段丽琴  袁华茂  李宁  李学刚 《海洋学报》2016,38(10):12-21

海洋沉积物中重金属的活性形态对于指示沉积物污染状况具有重要作用;为探寻简洁且能够有效提取重金属活性形态的浸提方法;实验研究了0.1 mol/L和1 mol/L盐酸的单级提取和欧共体标准局（European Community Bureau of Reference）提出的BCR分级提取法对胶州湾表层沉积物中重金属（Cr、Cu、Ni、Pb、Zn）和Al、Fe、Mn的浸取效果。结果显示;3种提取方法提取的金属含量呈显著正相关关系;两种浓度的稀盐酸对BCR方法中的酸可提取态和可还原态金属均具有较好浸提效果;但对可氧化态金属浸提能力相对较弱。不同提取方法的人为信号指数（ASI）计算结果表明;BCR浸取法提取结果的金属ASI值最大;表明其对沉积物中金属活性形态提取效率较高;1 mol/L HCl提取结果的金属ASI值最低;可能是较高浓度强酸使沉积物较大颗粒内层中“惰性”金属被浸取出来;“增加”了金属活性组分的污染讯息信号;对沉积物中Cu、Pb和Zn而言;0.1 mol/L HCl提取结果的ASI值与BCR方法接近。经过Al归一化后;0.1 mol/L HCl浸提的重金属含量的空间分布与胶州湾的实际污染状况相吻合;表明0.1 mol/L的HCl在一定程度上能够代替复杂的BCR浸取法;此方法可简化重金属活性形态的提取步骤;适合大范围沉积物重金属污染评价。  相似文献   

Snow disaster characteristics in Palongzangbu River Basin and mitigation countermeasures for road engineering     

ShuSu Duan  LingKan Yao  XiaoDan Sun  Qiang Cai 《寒旱区科学》2016,8(2):95-102

The Palongzangbu River Basin contains the highest number of maritime province glaciers in China.There are 130 glacial lakes,64 snow avalanche sites and 28 glacial debris flow gullies distributed within the basin.Snow disasters play a controlling role in the Sichuan-Tibet Highway construction,due to the terrain's special characteristics of high altitude and large height differential.Segmentation mitigation countermeasures for the Sichuan-Tibet Highway are presented based on snow disaster severity level and damage mode of the road.In the Ranwu to Midui section,snow avalanches are regional disasters, so the line should be placed in sunny slopes.In the Midui Gully to Yupu section,the line should be placed in shady slopes and at higher elevations to reduce the risk of glacial lake outburst.In the Yupu to Guxiang section,all three snow disasters are minimal.In the Guxiang to Tongmai section,glacier debris flows are the major threat,thus the road should be placed in shady slopes.  相似文献   

Spatio-temporal evolution of urban innovation structure based on zip code geodatabase: An empirical study from Shanghai and Beijing     

Dezhong Duan  Debin Du  Chengliang Liu  Seamus Grimes 《地理学报(英文版)》2016,26(12):1707-1724

In today’s world, the innovation of science and technology has become the key support for improving comprehensive national strength and changing the mode of social production and lifestyle. The country that possesses world-class scientific and technological innovation cities maximizes the attraction of global innovation factors and wins a strategic initiative in international competition. Based on the urban zip code geodatabase, an evaluation system of urban innovation with the perspective of innovation outputs, and the spatial evolutionary mode, concerning the structure of innovation space of Shanghai and Beijing from 1991 to 2014, was developed. The results of the research indicated that the zip code geodatabase provided a new perspective for studying the evolving spatial structure of urban innovation. The resulting evaluation of the spatial structure of urban innovation using the urban zip code geodatabase established by connecting random edge points, was relatively effective. The study illustrates the value of this methodology. During the study period, the spatial structure of innovation of Shanghai and Beijing demonstrated many common features: with the increase in urban space units participating in innovation year by year, the overall gap of regional innovation outputs has narrowed, and the trend towards spatial agglomeration has strengthened. The evolving spatial structure of innovation of Shanghai and Beijing demonstrated differences between the common features during the 25 years as well: in the trend towards the suburbanization of innovation resources, the spatial structure of innovation of Shanghai evolved from a single-core to a multi-core structure. A radiation effect related to traffic arteries as spatial diffusion corridors was prominent. Accordingly, a spatial correlation effect of its innovation outputs also indicated a hollowness in the city center; the spatial structure of innovation of Beijing had a single-core oriented structure all the way. Together with the tendency for innovation resources to be agglomerated in the city center, the spatial correlation effect of innovation outputs reflected the characteristics of the evolutionary feature where “rural area encircles cities”. The innovation spatial structure of Shanghai and Beijing have intrinsic consistency with the spatial structure of their respective regions (Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan region), which suggested that the principle of proportional and disproportional distribution of a city-scale pattern of technological and innovational activities is closely related to its regional innovation pattern.  相似文献