A climate change simulation starting from 1935     

U Cubasch  G C Hegerl  A Hellbach  H Höck  U Mikolajewicz  B D Santer  R Voss 《Climate Dynamics》1995,11(2):71-84

Due to restrictions in the available computing resources and a lack of suitable observational data, transient climate change experiments with global coupled ocean-atmosphere models have been started from an initial state at equilibrium with the present day forcing. The historical development of greenhouse gas forcing from the onset of industrialization until the present has therefore been neglected. Studies with simplified models have shown that this cold start error leads to a serious underestimation of the anthropogenic global warming. In the present study, a 150-year integration has been carried out with a global coupled ocean-atmosphere model starting from the greenhouse gas concentration observed in 1935, i.e., at an early time of industrialization. The model was forced with observed greenhouse gas concentrations up to 1985, and with the equivalent C0₂ concentrations stipulated in Scenario A (Business as Usual) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change from 1985 to 2085. The early starting date alleviates some of the cold start problems. The global mean near surface temperature change in 2085 is about 0.3 K (ca. 10%) higher in the early industrialization experiment than in an integration with the same model and identical Scenario A greenhouse gas forcing, but with a start date in 1985. Comparisons between the experiments with early and late start dates show considerable differences in the amplitude of the regional climate change patterns, particularly for sea level. The early industrialization experiment can be used to obtain a first estimate of the detection time for a greenhouse-gas-induced near-surface temperature signal. Detection time estimates are obtained using globally and zonally averaged data from the experiment and a long control run, as well as principal component time series describing the evolution of the dominant signal and noise modes. The latter approach yields the earliest detection time (in the decade 1990–2000) for the time-evolving near-surface temperature signal. For global-mean temperatures or for temperatures averaged between 45°N and 45°S, the signal detection times are in the decades 2015–2025 and 2005–2015, respectively. The reduction of the cold start error in the early industrialization experiment makes it possible to separate the near-surface temperature signal from the noise about one decade earlier than in the experiment starting in 1985. We stress that these detection times are only valid in the context of the coupled model's internally-generated natural variability, which possibly underestimates low frequency fluctuations and does not incorporate the variance associated with changes in external forcing factors, such as anthropogenic sulfate aerosols, solar variability or volcanic dust.  相似文献   

Room temperature solid-state detectors for Gamma ray burst spectroscopy     

U. D. Desai  J. Pantazis  K. Shah 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1995,231(1-2):487-491

We have evaluated several solid state detectors which offer excellent energy resolution at room temperature for soft X-rays. For soft X-rays (< 1 keV to 20 keV), silicon P-intrinsic-N (PIN) and avalanche-mode photodiodes (APD's) have been studied. Using commercially available charge sensitive pre-amplifiers, these photodiodes provide 1 keV resolution without cooling. Their detection efficiencies are limited to about 20 keV and 15 keV, respectively. To overcome this constraint, we have studied thick (1.5 mm) PIN detectors made by Micron Semiconductor Ltd., U.K., as well as compound semiconducting materials with high Z constituents such as CZT and PbI₂. PbI₂ allows high detection efficiencies of photons up to 100 keV with detectors 100–300 microns thick. These new detectors offer the capability to study the low-energy spectral evolution of Gamma ray bursts (GRBs). A matrix of these detectors could be used as an image plane detector with moderate spatial resolution for imaging.  相似文献   

Type III radio burst productivity of solar flares     

M. PoquÉrusse  P. S. McIntosh 《Solar physics》1995,159(2):301-323

We study the occurrence probability of type III radio bursts during flares as a function of the flare position on the Sun. We find that this probability peaks around 30° east of the central meridian, which points to a reciprocal tilt of the average radiation pattern of type IIIs. We argue that anisotropic scattering of the radiation by overdense coronal fibers parallel to the magnetic field is the dominant factor determining the orientation of radiation patterns. It follows that the average magnetic field appears to be tilted 30° west from the vertical. We also find that within a given active region, the average type III production rate of flares peaks 1° west of the center of gravity of all the flares of this active region.We infer that the coronal magnetic field above active regions presents a strong east-west asymmetry, resulting from the well known asymmetry at the photospheric level. As the west side of an active region covers a smaller area with stronger magnetic field than the east side, western flares are generally closer to open field lines than eastern flares. As a consequence, accelerated particles on the trailing (east) side of active regions usually stay trapped in magnetic loops, while on the leading (west) side they are more likely to escape along open lines into interplanetary space. As a result of the initial westward tilt of these open lines, we estimate that the corresponding Archimedean spiral is on average (apparently) rooted 15° west of the flare.  相似文献   

Impact cratering - a review,with special reference to the economic importance of impact structures and the Southern African impact crater record     

W. U. Reimold 《Earth, Moon, and Planets》1995,70(1-3):21-45

Only since several decades has impact cratering been recognized as an important surface process on all planetary bodies in the Solar System. However, as the process has not yet been effectively introduced into geological curricula, it is necessary to inform a wider public about its importance for (i) planetary formation and (ii) evolution, (iii) the understanding of this process as a geological process, (iv) the terrestrial impact crater record and its limitations, and (v) the recognition criteria for terrestrial impact structures, as well as (vi) the need of improvement of the impact cratering record in the light of the potential danger of an impact catastrophe on this planet. It is, particularly for developing countries, of interest to examine the economic and educational-environmental potential of impact structures. That it is possible to carry out an effective, low-budget geological investigation of impact structures within a Second World environment is demonstrated by the discussion of the progress that has been made in recent years with regard to the Southern African impact crater record. Several recommendations on how to improve, on the one hand, the terrestrial impact crater record and, on the other, their general working situation by activation of workers in Developing Countries are discussed.  相似文献