SARS对中国入境旅游人数影响的研究   总被引：31，自引：5，他引：26  

朱迎波  葛全胜  魏小安  董培南  何连生  彭唬 《地理研究》2003,22(5):551-559

今年爆发的SARS对中国旅游业冲击很大。本文利用双变量ARIMA模型,结合突发事件后人的心理发展变化曲线研究本次突发事件对入境旅游人数的影响。根据同类事件旅游心理恢复期的研究,结合中国实际情况,笔者讨论了恢复期分别为12、18、24个月时,SARS对入境旅游人数的影响。当恢复期为12个月时,入境旅游同比增长率平均降幅为1796%,入境旅游人数共减少238493万人次;当恢复期为18个月时,入境旅游同比增长率平均降幅为1707%,入境旅游人数共减少311703万人次;当恢复期为24个月时,入境旅游同比增长率平均降幅为1655%,入境旅游人数共减少385233万人次。  相似文献   

Low‐pressure–high‐temperature metamorphism during extension in a Jurassic magmatic arc,Central Pontides,Turkey     

A. I. Okay  G. Sunal  O. Tüysüz  S. Sherlock  M. Keskin  A. R.C. Kylander‐Clark 《Journal of Metamorphic Geology》2014,32(1):49-69

Magmatic arcs are zones of high heat flow; however, examples of metamorphic belts formed under magmatic arcs are rare. In the Pontides in northern Turkey, along the southern active margin of Eurasia, high temperature–low pressure metamorphic rocks and associated magmatic rocks are interpreted to have formed under a Jurassic continental magmatic arc, which extends for 2800 km through the Crimea and Caucasus to Iran. The metamorphism and magmatism occurred in an extensional tectonic environment as shown by the absence of a regional Jurassic contractional deformation, and the presence of Jurassic extensional volcaniclastic marine basin in the Pontides, over 2 km in thickness, where deposition was coeval with the high‐T metamorphism at depth. The heat flow was focused during the metamorphism, and unmetamorphosed Triassic sequences crop out within a few kilometres of the Jurassic metamorphic rocks. The heat for the high‐T metamorphism was brought up to crustal levels by mantle melts, relicts of which are found as ultramafic, gabbroic and dioritic enclaves in the Jurassic granitoids. The metamorphic rocks are predominantly gneiss and migmatite with the characteristic mineral assemblage quartz + K‐feldspar + plagioclase + biotite + cordierite ± sillimanite ± garnet. Mineral equilibria give peak metamorphic conditions of 4 ± 1 kbar and 720 ± 40 °C. Zircon U–Pb and biotite Ar–Ar ages show that the peak metamorphism took place during the Middle Jurassic at c. 172 Ma, and the rocks cooled to 300 °C at c. 162 Ma, when they were intruded by shallow‐level dacitic and andesitic porphyries and granitoids. The geochemistry of the Jurassic porphyries and volcanic rocks has a distinct arc signature with a crustal melt component. A crustal melt component is also suggested by cordierite and garnet in the magmatic assemblage and the abundance of inherited zircons in the porphyries.  相似文献   

Research on Accuracy Validation and Calibration Methods of TRMM Remote Sensing Precipitation Data in Irrawaddy Basin     

Qu Wei  Lu Jingxuan  Song Wenlong  Zhang Tingting  Tan Ya&#x  nan  Huang Ping 《地球科学进展》2014,29(11):1262-1270

TRMM daily precipitation data were validated compared to thirteen precipitation observation station data in Irrawaddy basin, and a calibration method of TRMM 3B42 data based on water balance concept was developed. SWAT model was used to calculate water balance, and then the TRMM data calibration ratio was inferred based on it. Average slope of sub-basin was the independent variable, and calibration ration was the dependent variable for the regression analysis. The calibration ratio of sub-basins without hydrological observation stations were calculated according to the average slope, and then the TRMM precipitation were calibrated according to the ratio in the whole basin. Results showed that TRMM annual and monthly precipitation had a highly correlation with observed data, but had a bad bias. Annual precipitation of TRMM precipitation after calibration were nearly the same as observed; monthly precipitation curve were similar with observed. Daily precipitation forecast rank was improved from medium to well, and there were 2 station forecast bad, 7 forecast well and 4 forecast medium before calibration, but 6 forecast well, 2 forecast medium and 5 forecast excellent after calibration. The results proved that TRMM data precision were highly improved over different temporal scales in Irrawaddy basin through this method, data for hydrological and water resources analysis were also provided.  相似文献   

Reciprocal influence of Kürtün Dam and wastewaters from the settlements on water quality in the stream Harşit,NE Turkey     

Adem Bayram  Hızır Önsoy  Murat İhsan Kömürcü  Mehmet Tüfekçi 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2014,72(8):2849-2860

This paper aims to reveal the reciprocal influence of Kürtün Dam and wastewaters from the settlements on the water quality in the stream Har?it, NE Turkey. Several key water-quality indicators were measured: water temperature (T), pH, dissolved oxygen (DO), electrical conductivity, water hardness, chemical oxygen demand (COD), ammonium nitrogen (NH₄ ⁺–N), nitrite nitrogen (NO₂ ^?–N), nitrate nitrogen (NO₃ ^?–N), total Kjeldahl nitrogen (TKN), total nitrogen (TN), orthophosphate phosphorus (PO₄ ^3?–P), and methylene blue active substances (MBAS). The monitoring and sampling studies were conducted every 15 days from March 2009 to February 2010 at two stations selected in the upstream and downstream of the Kürtün Dam. It was concluded that the Kürtün Dam Lake had a high-quality water in terms of T, pH, DO, COD, NH₄ ⁺–N, NO₂ ^?–N and NO₃ ^?–N values, but slightly polluted water with respect to TKN, PO₄ ^3?–P, and MBAS according to the Turkish Water Pollution Control Regulation. The dam improved the stream water quality by increasing the DO concentration, and decreasing the NO₂ ^?–N and PO₄ ^3?–P concentrations thanks to its hydraulic residence time despite the wastewater discharge by the nearby settlements. However, the wastewater discharge deteriorated the stream water quality increasing the COD, NH₄ ⁺–N, NO₃ ^––N, and TN concentrations.  相似文献   

Geochemical constraints on the genesis of the Sarıcakaya intrusive rocks,Turkey: Late Paleozoic crustal melting in the central Sakarya Zone     

Y. Kibici  N. İlbeyli  A. Yıldız  M. Bagˇcı 《Chemie der Erde / Geochemistry》2010,70(3):243-256

The Sakarya Zone is intruded by several Late Paleozoic granitoids, of which the Sar?cakaya intrusive rocks in the central Sakarya (Eski?ehir) region, is the least-studied. The Sar?cakaya intrusive rocks consist mainly of quartz diorite-granodiorite, granodiorite and granite. They are, geochemically, divided into two groups: diorites and granites. The former is medium-K and calc-alkaline (mainly I-type), whereas the latter is high-K to shoshonite and calcic (I-type). Typical minerals for both rock types are plagioclase, K-feldspar, quartz, biotite, hornblende and Fe–Ti oxides. Chondrite-normalized REE patterns for the Sar?cakaya intrusive rocks are moderately fractionated and have small negative Eu anomalies. They are enriched in LILE and LREE relative to HFSE showing characteristics of arc-related granitoids. Geochemical characteristics of the Sar?cakaya intrusive rocks indicate a hybrid origin through partial melting of lower crustal source rocks.  相似文献   

Groundwater changes in relation to seismic activity: a case study from Eskipazar (Karabuk, Turkey)     

Tülay Ekemen Keskin 《Hydrogeology Journal》2010,18(5):1205-1218

The reported study contributes to research on earthquake prediction. Between 2007 and 2009, changes were observed in two geothermal and mineral springs located in Eskipazar (～3–5 km to the north of the North Anatolian Fault Zone) in Turkey, in relation to small-magnitude earthquakes. During pre-seismic and post-seismic activities, variations were observed in the hydrogeological parameters of the spring waters. Temperature increases of 0.4–1°C were measured in one of the springs prior to three different earthquakes. There was a slight increase in the spring discharge with respect to the first earthquake, which occurred closest to the spring. This led to a reduction in electrical conductivity (EC), total dissolved solids (TDS), Ca, HCO₃, δ¹³C, Al, Mn, and Fe concentrations in the spring water, whereas tritium and Se values increased. Several days before the third earthquake, which occurred at a shallower depth, a decrease was observed in the discharge, which led to a reduction in tritium, δ¹³C and Si concentrations. These variations could be explained by changes in the mixing ratio of waters of different genesis, depending on changes in permeability, pore pressure, and flow paths of the aquifer due to regional stress changes.  相似文献   

Failure and flow development of a collapse induced complex landslide: the 2005 Kuzulu (Koyulhisar, Turkey) landslide hazard   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Işık Yilmaz  Tülay Ekemen  Mustafa Yildirim  İnan Keskin  Gül Özdemir 《Environmental Geology》2006,49(3):467-476

Koyulhisar located in a slope of hilly region and constructed in the side of a mountain along the North Anatolian Fault Zone is frequently subject to landslides. A catastrophic landslide occurred on the morning of 17 March 2005 in the North of the Kuzulu district of Koyulhisar (Sivas, Turkey). This landslide caused widespread loss of life, and damage to buildings, and lifelines. Fifteen people were dead and five were injured, 21 houses and a minaret were covered and damaged severely. The case study presented in this paper describes and analyses the results of the detailed surveys of an interesting landslide in Kuzulu district of Koyulhisar (Sivas, Turkey), based on field and laboratory measurements and monitoring of the slide area. Landslide initiated as a collapse, and developed into debris avalanches in the valley. This phenomenon caused a disaster in the Kuzulu district. The importance of this landslide in particular has been recognized both in terms of its consequence for the people and structures and in terms of its role in allowing an understanding of process and properties of landslide triggered by a collapse in limestone karst. In view of the potential for such events to occur again in this area and environs, understanding of the failure mechanism is very crucial.  相似文献   

观测过程中较差大气折射引起的星象移动的计算和研究     

苏定强  王亚男 《中国天文和天体物理学报》1997,(2)

本文给出了一种计算观测过程中较差大气折射引起的星象移动的方法，包括焦面最佳转动的确定．算法中除大气折射公式外，都是严格的．本文用这种方法详细计算了我国即将研制的大天区面积多目标光纤光谱望远镜（ＬＡＭＯＳＴ）中较差大气折射引起的星象移动，文中详细计算了望远镜安放在纬度４０．４°，观测天区－１０°δ＋９０°，天体过子午圈前后１．５小时，视场直径５°情况下，星象移动的结果，并得到星象的最大位移为０．８５９″，ＬＡＭＯＳＴ中光纤的直径是３．３″，光纤定位系统可不作校正．本文提出了实现焦面最佳转动的导星方法：在导星元件是ＣＣＤ的情况下，可任选一颗星来引导焦面旋转，只要使星象在ＣＣＤ靶面上作切向位移，其值等于按本文方法计算得到的值，若采用赤径、赤纬分角线方向（四个４５°方向）的星来引导旋转，也可近似地得到焦面的最佳转动．本文提出的算法和导星方法，可应用于任何天区，任意的观测时间和任何形式的焦面可旋转的望远镜．  相似文献   

碎屑岩储层成岩相研究现状及进展   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

赖锦  王贵文  王书南  郑懿琼  吴恒  张永辰 《地球科学进展》2013,28(1):39-50

现今在以岩性和地层等隐蔽油气藏为主要目标的油气勘探实践中发现储集体的质量主要受构造相、沉积相和成岩相的综合影响,在烃源岩和构造等成藏基本地质条件明确的情况下,寻找受成岩相控制的优质储集体是油气勘探工作的重点和难点.目前国内外关于碎屑岩储层成岩相的研究尚处于探索阶段,在成岩相的分类命名方案、定量表征参数等方面尚未完全达成共识,而且缺乏完善的成岩相的地球物理表征方法.在阅读国内外大量文献的基础上,概述了成岩相概念的提出以及发展历程;归纳了成岩相的控制因素、研究内容、划分依据、分类方法、命名方案和定量评价标准;总结了成岩相在油气勘探各个环节中的应用;最后探讨了现阶段成岩相研究中尚存的问题.在此基础上,就未来成岩相研究的发展方向做出展望,以期能有效推动成岩相研究相关的理论和技术的深入发展.  相似文献   

新型大孔径静态破碎技术的试验研究          下载免费PDF全文

温尊礼  徐全军  姜楠  李志龙  韩文红 《探矿工程》2013,40(5):72-74

在传统静态爆破的基础上,提出了一种新型大孔径静态爆破技术,使用新型扩孔钻头结合机械堵孔器解决了大孔径静态爆破的冲孔问题。由于孔径的增大,使得破碎剂膨胀压力增大,膨胀剂反应速度加快,加大了堵孔难度。设计的新型扩孔钻头和新型堵孔器进行了孤岩块的大孔径静态爆破试验,试验结果证实了该新型大孔径静态爆破技术的可行性,达到了提高爆破能力和缩短破坏时间的预期目的。为今后的敏感地区岩石爆破工程开挖提供了新途径。  相似文献